SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

Indonesia's nickel industry is facing depletion of high-grade laterite resources continues to reduce average ore quality. It is expected that the country's average nickel ore grade will decline by a further 4–5% in 2026. For example, although transactions may be priced as 1.50% Ni ore, the actual delivered ore grade may average only around 1.43–1.44% Ni. Although the decline appears modest, lower ore grades require miners to process significantly more material to produce the same amount of contained nickel, increasing stripping ratios, raising mining costs, and tightening the supply of premium-grade ore for both RKEF and HPAL smelters.

In 2026, the global lead-acid battery industry maintains steady growth, holding irreplaceable advantages in starting, industrial, and energy storage applications. Secondary lead has become the core raw material supply, and green recycling and compliant manufacturing have become the industry baseline. The global industry chain is accelerating its shift to Southeast Asia, where Vietnam, leveraging its motorcycle and automobile ownership, manufacturing supporting facilities, and trade facilitation advantages, has become a strategic hub for lead smelting, battery production, and recycling. Meanwhile, the lead industry chain faces multiple challenges such as raw material supply-demand balance, international trade compliance, upgrading environmental standards, iteration of advanced lead battery technologies, supply chain security, and cost control. To build a global lead industry exchange and cooperation platform and promote collaborative innovation across the entire chain of lead ore, primary lead, secondary lead, lead-acid batteries, equipment, and auxiliary materials, the 2026 SMM Global Lead-Acid Battery Supply Chain Innovation Conference is set to take place in Ho Chi Minh City. SMM, in partnership with Hunan Ruiyi Resources and Environment Technology Co., Ltd. , invites you to join the conference. The event will focus on industrial policies, market trends, technological upgrades, circular economy, and the joint development of the global supply chain, helping enterprises seize opportunities and achieve win-win collaboration. Click to register now for the conference, and join us in witnessing and participating in this extraordinary and far-reaching industry event, creating a brilliant new chapter together! Hunan Ruiyi Resources and Environment Technology Co., Ltd. is an "industry-academia-research-application" cooperation partner of Central South University. Relying on the Institute of Resource Recycling and Environmental Engineering of Central South University, the company primarily engages in technology development and transformation, technical consulting services, process and plant design, equipment manufacturing, and engineering contracting in fields such as clean and efficient utilization of secondary non-ferrous metal resources, comprehensive recovery and safe disposal of heavy metal and arsenic-containing hazardous waste, and extraction. The company focuses on technology R&D and promotion in the hazardous waste disposal industry. With side-blown furnaces, pure oxygen converters, low-temperature pyrolysis furnaces, electric furnaces, and fuming furnaces as core equipment, it enhances metal recovery rates, saves energy, and reduces emissions in the secondary lead recycling industry, the comprehensive recovery and safe disposal of copper scrap, the vitrification of fly ash and residues from municipal solid waste and hazardous waste incineration, and the comprehensive recovery and safe disposal of heavy metal and arsenic-containing hazardous waste, thereby meeting the growing needs of clients; the company has an R&D and design engineering team centered on professors and senior engineers, bringing together talented professionals from metallurgical production and management, environmental protection, plant design, mechanical manufacturing, automation, electrical engineering, and other fields. It possesses full-chain service capabilities from technical consulting to furnace operation in the areas of secondary lead, copper scrap recycling, secondary zinc, and arsenic-containing hazardous waste disposal. In the R&D and manufacturing of side-blown furnaces and the aforementioned resource recycling fields, it holds over 90 invention patents and utility model patents. RE Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as RE TECH) is a cooperative high-techcompany (industry-institute-research) affiliated with Central South University, whose metallurgy department is one of the most prestigious in the world. With independent patented oxygen-enriched side-blowing furnace as the core equipment which have widely applied in lead recvcling industry and have won a lot of awards because of its innovative technology, we also have the ability to design the entire plant, and design and fabricate the essential equipment including side-blowing furnace, rotary furnace, blast furnace, convert, electrical furnace, fuming furnace and other equipment. In our role as the leading engineering company in lead recycling, we continue to invest in upgrading equipment and processes to meet the ever-increasing requirement of the industry, including improving metal recovery rates, reducing emissions, and treating materials more efficiently. We are expanding our field from lead to copper, nickel,zinc, tin, antimoney etc. to ensure that nonferrous secondary resources are reused efficiently and cleanly, heavy metals and arsenic-containing hazardouswastes are reecovered and disposed safely. Professors, experts and engineers make up the RE TECH team, whose majors include metallurgy, environmental protection, mechanical, automation, electrical and otherdisciplines. With more than 90 patents, the team is capable of providing consulting, engineering, equipment fabrication, installation, commissioning, and operation services to our respected clients. Contact Tel: 0731-82850226 Email: info@rezh.net Website: http//www.hnrezh.com Address: No. 19 Ziyuan Road, Yuelu District, Changsha, Hunan Province Long press and scan to register now 2026 SMM Global Lead-Acid Battery Supply Chain Industry Conference

July 24, 2026 On Wednesday, 29 July, at 2:00 p.m. ET, the US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. Futures markets see almost no chance of a change to the target range. For the gold market , the real event comes thirty minutes later – when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps up to the microphone. The starting point: four holds in a row The target range for the fed funds rate has stood at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since December 2025. The FOMC has now held steady at four consecutive meetings – most recently on 17 June, unanimously and for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. What stood out at the June meeting was not the decision but the accompanying dot plot. For the first time since the easing cycle began, the median projection pointed toward a hike rather than a cut: nine of the eighteen participants saw at least one increase before year-end, eight saw no change, and only one projected a cut. Warsh submitted no dot of his own – a deliberate signal that the new Chair does not intend to be pinned to a path. At the same time, the Fed raised its 2026 inflation projection significantly and lowered its growth forecast. For gold, that was unwelcome news. The metal peaked at a record of roughly $5,600 an ounce in January and has since given back somewhere between a quarter and nearly thirty percent. It is currently trading around the $4,100 mark; on Wednesday of this week it reached roughly $4,130 intraday, a two-week high. Real yields are the lever – not the headline Gold does not respond to headline inflation. It responds to real yields, meaning what Treasuries pay after subtracting expected inflation. When real yields rise, so does the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no income. That mechanism explains gold's weakness this year: it was not inflation that hurt the metal, but the expectation that the Fed would answer that inflation with higher rates. This is precisely why the 28–29 July meeting is, for gold, a communications event above all. There is no updated Summary of Economic Projections and no new dot plot this time – the next projection meeting is 15–16 September. What remains is the statement and the press conference. And Warsh has made clear in the past that he wants less forward guidance and more data dependence. For investors, that means less advance signalling, more room for interpretation, and potentially higher volatility around the announcement. The data: disinflation on shaky ground Recent inflation prints have taken the sharpest edge off market expectations. After US consumer prices hit 4.2 percent in May, a three-year high, the annual rate fell to 3.5 percent in June and the core rate eased from 2.9 to 2.6 percent. Both came in below expectations. The catch: the decline was almost entirely energy-driven. Following the Middle East ceasefire in mid-June, oil and gasoline prices dropped sharply, with the energy index falling 5.7 percent month-over-month. That is not structural relief – it is a base effect with an expiry date. Energy quotes were already firming again in early July, and the geopolitical situation around Iran remains fragile, with reports of a possible temporary truce alternating with fresh escalation headlines. The labour market, meanwhile, is cooling. June nonfarm payrolls came in at roughly 57,000, well short of the roughly 110,000 expected, and the two prior months were revised down by a combined 74,000. The Fed therefore faces the classic dilemma: tighten too late and inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored; tighten too early and an already softening labour market may tip over. What the market is pricing Following the June inflation report, the implied probability of no change at the end of July has risen above 85 percent. A hike on 29 July would be a genuine surprise – and for exactly that reason it would land hard on gold. September is the more interesting question. Implied hike probabilities there have swung between roughly 50 and just under 70 percent depending on the trading day. That is the real variable: any phrasing in Warsh's press conference that opens or closes the door to September will translate straight into real yields, and from there into the gold price. Four scenarios for 29 July Scenario Probability Expected gold reaction Hawkish hold – rates unchanged, statement stresses inflation risks, September explicitly live high Pressure toward $4,000, support level tested Neutral hold – rates unchanged, emphasis on data dependence without directional signal high Sideways to slightly firmer, volatility around the press conference Dovish hold – rates unchanged, focus on the soft labour market and falling inflation medium Recovery toward $4,300 to $4,400 possible Rate hike – 25 basis point increase low Sharp setback, a move toward $3,900 conceivable For context: the World Gold Council's valuation framework currently puts fair value at around $4,100 an ounce, with a band of roughly five percent – and that calculation already assumes a hike by October. If that move fails to materialise, there is upside relative to the model value. The other side of the scale: structural demand Amid the rate-driven weakness, it is easy to overlook that physical demand has held up. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 – the strongest quarter in more than a year and above the five-year average. The People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 19 consecutive months. These buyers do not act on FedWatch probabilities but on reserve diversification, and that demand floor will be entirely unaffected by what happens on 29 July. ETF flows point the other way, with net outflows in recent months. Put simply: the Western financial investor is currently the seller, the central bank the buyer. On the forecast side, the major houses remain constructive – JP Morgan sees around $4,500 in the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year-end. What this means for gold equities and junior explorers For our readers, the second derivative matters more than the first. Producers are still working with historically wide margins at $4,100 gold; the sector's operating cash flow position remains solid despite the price decline. For explorers and developers, the picture is different. They have no revenues, only capital requirements. The rate path reaches them through two channels: the discounting of future cash flows in NPV models, and the financing window. A hawkish signal on 29 July makes risk capital more expensive and narrows the window for private placements; a neutral or dovish tone widens it. This is why junior names typically react to Fed dates with a higher beta than the metal itself – to the downside as well as the upside. Anyone invested in the junior space should therefore treat 29 July less as a forecasting event and more as a volatility event. The structural case – a thin pipeline of development-ready ounces, resilient central bank demand, and reviving M&A appetite among producers – does not hinge on any single meeting. Conclusion The rate decision itself is likely to be a non-event. What counts is how Kevin Warsh characterises the balance of risks between sticky inflation and a weakening labour market, and whether he leaves the door to September open or pulls it shut. After that, attention turns to the next inflation report on 12 August and the projection meeting on 15–16 September. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/the-upcoming-fed-decision-why-this-meeting-matters-more-to-gold-than-the-rate-call-itself

Against the backdrop of ongoing automotive lightweighting, aluminum alloys are rapidly expanding into more application scenarios such as structural body parts, battery packs, and chassis systems. Among them, 6-series aluminum alloys, which combine strength, formability, corrosion resistance, and lightweighting advantages, have become one of the key directions for automotive aluminum development. As NEVs raise higher requirements for vehicle safety, driving range, and manufacturing efficiency, the market is posing new challenges to the overall performance of 6-series aluminum alloys. How can the balance between material strength and toughness be further improved? How can formability, joining performance, and service reliability be balanced? How can the new demands brought by the continuous upgrading of automotive manufacturing processes be met? These questions are becoming a key focus for the automotive materials industry... Against the backdrop of the continuous upgrading and iteration of automotive aluminum alloy materials, we are honored to have invited Dr. Zhu Xiao, R&D Director of Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Co., Ltd., to attend the SMM (8th) Automotive Supply Chain Conference and deliver a keynote speech titled —— " Performance Iteration Direction of 6-Series Aluminum Alloys in the Automotive Sector ," combining industrialization implementation experience to share solutions for the R&D, process optimization, and mass production of next-generation 6-series aluminum materials tailored for NEV complete vehicles. Dr. Zhu Xiao is a senior engineer, a high-end manufacturing talent recognized by the MIIT, and a high-end industrial talent under Liaoning Province's "Xing Liao Ying Cai" program. He is primarily responsible for the development of new products, new technologies, and new processes at Xiangyu Aluminum, the application of engineering technologies, science and technology projects, and intellectual property-related work . Over the past five years, he has led five national and provincial-level scientific research projects, including those under the National Key R&D Program and Provincial Science and Technology Major Projects, won the Liaoning Province Science and Technology Progress First Prize twice, obtained over 50 nationally authorized patents, and published more than 30 papers, achieving multiple technological breakthroughs in the forming and product processing of high-end aluminum alloy materials . Focusing on automotive lightweight material upgrades, secure this practical knowledge-sharing session, and explore with top aluminum material R&D experts the opportunities for the iterative development of 6-series aluminum alloys. Conference Agenda Overview The conference spans two days, featuring one main forum + three sub-forums + an automaker end-user procurement networking session + an automaker cost and new technology exchange meeting , each session packed with highlights. September 10, Full Day – Main Forum ▶ Main Forum & Automotive Globalization Session ▶ Lightweight Materials Session: Aluminum, Magnesium, Steel ▶ Commercial Vehicle Session: Battery, Intelligence, Lightweighting September 11, Morning ▶ Sub-forum 1: Automotive & Robotics Collaborative Forum ▶ Sub-forum 2: Automotive Chassis Development Forum ▶ Sub-forum 3: Automotive Lightweighting & High-End Steel Innovation Forum September 11, Afternoon ▶ Automaker Procurement Supply-Demand Networking Session (Scroll down for details) ▶ Automaker Cost Communication & New Technology Seminar Full Agenda September 10 – Main Forum & Automotive Globalization Session 9:00-9:15 Opening Remarks 09:15-09:40 Development Trends of China's Automotive Industry During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period Guest Speaker: Xu Haidong, Deputy Secretary-General, CAAM 9:40-10:30 Roundtable Dialogue: The Next Five Years of the Automotive Supply Chain – Going Global, Low Carbon, and Intelligence · Opportunities and risks of Chinese enterprises establishing factories overseas (Southeast Asia, Europe, Mexico) · Impact of carbon border taxes (CBAM) on aluminum/steel exports and response strategies · How AI and digitalization can assist with metal material R&D and supply chain management Companies to be Invited (TBD): Lizhong Group Jintuo Technology NIO Volkswagen 10:30-10:50 Coffee Break & Exhibition Tour 10:50-11:10 Under the Overlay of "Involution" and "Going Global": Changes and Strategic Choices in the Automotive Industry Companies to be Invited (TBD): SAIC, Chery 11:10-11:30 Redefining Materials for the Next-Generation Vehicle Platform: The Material Selection Logic for 2030 Car Models Companies to be Invited (TBD): NIO, XPeng Motors, Xiaomi Automobile 11:30-12:00 Safety First, Materials as the Foundation – The Metal Material Logic in the Design of Power Battery Safety Systems Guest Speaker: Jia Shuyuan, Battery Assembly Design Lead Engineer, R&D Institute, Dongfeng Motor Group Corporation 12:00-13:30 Lunch Buffet September 10 – Lightweight Materials Session: Aluminum, Magnesium, Steel 13:30-13:50 Applications and Development Trends of Composite Materials in NEV Lightweighting Guest Speaker: Shen Weidong, Senior Director, Professor-Level Senior Engineer, SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. 13:50-14:10 The Limited Volume of the Magnesium Alloy Industry – Can It Really Open the Automotive Market? Companies to be Invited (TBD): Shanxi Regal 14:10-14:30 New Opportunities for Magnesium Alloys in NEVs: Motor Housings, Electronic Control Cases, Instrument Panel Frames Presenting Company: Mao Mingzhi, Meridian Lightweight Technologies Co., Ltd. 14:30-14:50 Performance Iteration Direction of 6-Series Aluminum Alloys in the Automotive Sector Guest Speaker: Zhu Xiao, R&D Director, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Co., Ltd. 14:50-15:10 Innovative Applications and Solutions of High-Strength and Tough Special Steel in Automotive Chassis Safety Components Companies to be Invited (TBD): Ansteel 15:10-15:30 Steel Auto Body and Integrated Solutions Companies to be Invited (TBD): Great Wall Motor, Rizhao Steel 15:30-15:45 Coffee Break September 10 – Commercial Vehicle Sustainable Development Session: Battery, Intelligence, Lightweighting 15:45-16:05 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis and Outlook Invited: Lu Huaping, Secretary General, National NEV Commercial Vehicle Ecological Joint Committee (Commercial Vehicle Alliance) 16:05-16:25 BYD Commercial Blade Battery Fast Recharge Technology and Ecosystem Development Guest Speaker: Dr. Deng Qingming, Director, Global Commercial Vehicle Business Center Solutions, BYD Battery 16:25-16:45 Commercial Vehicle Battery Technology and Core Component Development To be Invited (TBD): REPT Battero Energy Co., Ltd. 16:45-17:05 Lightweight Material Technology and Development Trends for Commercial Vehicles To be Invited (TBD): Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. September 11 – Automotive & Robotics Collaborative Forum 9:20-9:40 Shared Supply Chain: When Automotive Parts Companies Build Robots – Downward Disruption or a World Apart? Guest Speaker: Huang Li, Senior Vice President, Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd. 9:40-10:00 Scenario Applications of Embodied AI Robots in Automotive Manufacturing Guest Speaker: Zhang Chaopeng, Embodied AI Robot Expert 10:00-10:20 Current Status and Outlook of High-Performance Aluminum Alloys in Humanoid Robot Applications Guest Speaker: Cheng Hanming, President, Hongjin New Materials Group Research Institute 10:20-10:40 Mid-Session Break 10:40-11:00 From Automotive to Embodied AI: Supply Chain Synergy and New Paradigm Leap Driven by Common Technology Origins Guest Speaker: Lei Xiong, General Manager, Ningbo Joyson Lingxi Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. 11:00-11:20 Convergent Innovation and Industrialization Implementation Pathways for Automotive and Embodied Robotics Guest Speaker: Yang Shaoping, Purchasing Director, Humanoid Robot (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. 11:20-11:40 Lightweighting Challenges and Material Selection Analysis for Automotive & Humanoid Robots Guest Speaker: Huang Jiaqi, Material Expert, lron Humanoid Robot 11:40-12:00 AI Robots – Frontier Technology and Outlook for Robotics Guest Speaker (TBD): Chen Weidong, Tenured Professor and Doctoral Supervisor, School of Automation and Perception, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Executive Vice Dean, Medical Robotics Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University September 11 – Automotive Chassis Development Forum 9:00-9:30 The Process Route Debate: From Casting to Extrusion for Aluminum Alloy Subframes Companies to be Invited (TBD): ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Bosch 9:30-10:00 Exploring Integrated Die-Casting Chassis: Beyond the Rear Floor, How Far Can Chassis Structural Parts Be Integrated? Companies to be Invited (TBD): Seres Automobile, Guangdong Hongtu, ZEEKR, GAC Huadi 10:00-10:30 Application Prospects of Electromagnetic Thermal Control Technology in Large Integrated Die-Castings Guest Speaker: Renowned Industry Expert 10:30-11:00 The Way Forward for Integrated Die-Casting: From "Expansion" to a "Rational" Perspective Companies to be Invited (TBD): GAC Group, LK Group 11:00-11:30 Domestic Substitution of Aluminum Forgings for Chassis: Mass Production and Performance Validation of Steering Knuckles and Control Arms Presenting Company: Hangzhou Rima Precision Forging Co., Ltd. 11:30-12:00 The Deep Change of Skateboard Chassis on Vehicle Development Models: From "One Car, One Chassis" to "One Chassis, Multiple Cars" Companies to be Invited (TBD): Volkswagen September 11 – Automotive Lightweighting and High-End Steel Innovation Forum 09:00–09:30 Synergistic Development of Vehicle Corrosion Protection, Dual Carbon Goals, and Cost Reduction – Compliant Application of Green Coatings and Low-Carbon Automotive Steel Companies to be Invited (TBD): Institute for Carbon Neutrality in Steel, University of Science and Technology Beijing 09:30–10:00 Innovation in High-Performance Body-in-White Steel Technology and Vehicle Manufacturing Implementation Presenting Company: Zhang Honghong, Deputy General Manager, Suzhou Pressler Technology Co., Ltd. 10:00–10:30 Fatigue Performance Optimization and Long-Life Durability Technology for High-End Special Steel in New Energy Vehicles Presenting Company: Baowu Jufei Special Steel Co., Ltd. 10:30–11:00 Building a Multi-Dimensional Lightweight Material Selection System for Complete Vehicles and Multi-Material Collaborative Application Companies to be Invited (TBD): CITIC Pacific Group 11:00–11:30 Vehicle Engineering Adaptation and On-the-Ground Application of Advanced Joining Technologies for Automotive Steel and Dissimilar Metals/Heterogeneous Materials Companies to be Invited (TBD): Shougang Group Research Institute of Technology, Ansteel Iron & Steel Institute 11:30–12:00 Upgrading of High-Purity Special Steel Smelting Processes and Material Applications for Core Components of Electric Drive Systems Companies to be Invited (TBD): Dongbei Special Steel, Fushun Special Steel, Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group September 11 – Automaker Procurement Supply-Demand Networking Session 13:30–16:00 Procurement Networking Session + Going Global Networking Session September 11 – Automaker Cost Communication and New Technology Seminar 15:00–16:00 Automaker Cost Communication and New Technology Seminar

Malaysia is reviewing a supply agreement worth $96 million signed between Lynas Rare Earths and the US Department of Defense, after a parliamentary committee assessed whether the deal affects Malaysia’s stance in support of Palestine and its future rare earth policies. According to a previously issued statement, the Parliamentary Special Select Committee on International Relations and International Trade, chaired by Member of Parliament Wong Chen, convened on July 16 to discuss the role of the Australian company Lynas in the US defense supply chain. The committee heard submissions from government officials, non-governmental organizations, and senior executives of Lynas. The committee recommended that the government formulate a clearer foreign investment policy to protect Malaysia’s national interests and sovereignty, and clarify its position on this matter within two weeks. The committee said it called this meeting to examine and assess the impact of the supply agreement, which is allegedly affecting Malaysia’s long-standing stance in support of Palestine.

Huahong Technology’s semi-annual results forecast disclosed on the evening of July 13 shows that attributable net profit in H1 2026 is expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. As for the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology said: In H1 2026, driven by industry policies and improved downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s rare earth comprehensive utilization segment seized market opportunities, fully leveraged its comprehensive advantages in capacity scale, cost control and process technology, and continuously optimized its supply, production and sales coordination and inventory management strategies, effectively driving the full release of the segment’s profitability. The company continued to deepen its rare earth industry chain layout, steadily expanding its downstream rare earth permanent magnet materials business. Driven by steady demand from end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power and industrial automation, the segment’s business scale kept expanding, its revenue and product mix continued to improve and it became an important supplement to performance growth. A review of SMM’s Pr-Nd oxide price trend in H1 shows that the Pr-Nd oxide price stood at 609,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year, hit its H1 high of 890,000 yuan/mt by late February, a cumulative gain of up to 46.7% from the start of the year. The key driver was the supply side: spot Pr-Nd oxide supply remained tight, futures surged sharply, suppliers held back from selling amid strong bullish sentiment, and pre-holiday stockpiling purchases by metal companies pushed prices up rapidly. At the same time, supply disruptions from Myanmar ore, domestic separation plants’ production resumptions falling short of expectations and market sentiment created a combined effect of “undersupply + bullish hold-back.” From March to April, however, bearish supply-side news combined with weak demand from traditional end-use sectors pulled Pr-Nd oxide prices back quickly to around 700,000 yuan/mt. Yet the rise in China Northern Rare Earth’s concentrate prices in April, supply support from production suspensions at separation plants and export orders released under the export control extension window together drove prices to rebound slightly. From May, downstream sectors gradually entered the off-season and purchases became more cautious. From late June, the formal implementation of the Mineral Resources Law Implementation Regulations, which list rare earths as strategic minerals, and production cuts by scrap recycling enterprises due to tax invoice issues boosted Pr-Nd oxide prices again, which rebounded to 742,500 yuan/mt on June 30. Huahong Technology announced on June 30 that its controlling shareholder Jiangsu Huahong Industrial Group Co., Ltd., which holds a 32.01% stake, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 15.0102 million shares (1.99% of total equity) through centralized bidding and block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Zhu Dayong, who holds a 0.19% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 365,000 shares (0.05% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Liu Weihua, who holds a 1.52% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 2.8 million shares (0.37% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days. Huahong Technology previously released its 2025 annual performance report, showing that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB7.835 billion, up 40.51% YoY, reaching a three-year high. After posting losses for two consecutive years, the company successfully returned to profitability, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB204 million, up 157.46% YoY. 1. The rare earth segment seized the industry opportunity, acting as the "ballast stone" and "engine" for the turnaround. In 2025, the global rare earth market experienced a major shift in the supply-demand pattern. Driven by surging downstream demand from sectors such as new energy and robotics, combined with rigid supply-side constraints, rare earth product prices continued to rise, with the cumulative annual price increase for core products like Pr-Nd oxide exceeding 35%. The company's Rare Earth Resource Comprehensive Utilization Division keenly captured this industry opportunity, made accurate assessments, and acted accordingly: the company kept pace with the market, optimized procurement and sales strategies, and maximized product value during the price upcycle. Technological transformation yielded results and capacity was released: the previously completed technological transformation and capacity expansion projects at Xintai Technology and Jiangxi Wanhong reached full production, with annual capacity for rare earth oxides stabilizing at 12,000 mt, significantly releasing economies of scale. The company tapped internal potential to reduce costs and enhance efficiency: by optimizing process flows, production costs were strictly controlled and recovery rates were improved. During the reporting period, the company's rare earth resource comprehensive utilization business recorded strong production and sales performance with rising volumes and prices, contributing core profits to the company. 2. All business segments collaborated to build a diversified support structure. While the rare earth resource comprehensive utilization segment led the way, other segments also achieved strong operating results, creating a favorable situation of "blossoming in multiple areas and developing in synergy": Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Segment achieved "dual improvement in volume and quality," with production capacity steadily released across various production sites, providing strong support for market expansion and order fulfillment. High-performance magnetic material products were successfully introduced into the supply chain systems of multiple first-tier NEV automakers, with order scale continuing to expand and client quality and business mix continuously optimized. Construction of the key Baotou production site is progressing in an orderly manner and is planned to enter trial production in Q2 2026, laying a critical foundation for doubling magnetic material capacity. Elevator Parts Segment: The traditional business seized the policy dividends from the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," rapidly responding to domestic demand for elevator installation and retrofitting. Through refined production scheduling and efficiency gains, total annual production grew by over 20% YoY. The segment steadily expanded its second growth curve, with customer acquisition and product development activities for emerging businesses such as automotive electronics and energy storage progressing on schedule. At the same time, the division's "going global" process accelerated, closely following market trends and customer needs. Renewable Resource Equipment Segment: In the face of profound industry changes and intense market competition, the business division continued to increase investment in new product R&D and accelerated its deployment in markets outside China, striving to secure survival and development amid fierce competition. Internally, it focused tightly on cost reduction across supply, production, and sales to enhance operational quality. In the renewable resource operations segment, the end-of-life vehicle dismantling and steel scrap processing businesses constantly explored more diverse and flexible business models, and introduced specialized teams to improve operational quality and efficiency. In 2025, the company's total volume of end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling reached a record high. The business models continued to mature, internal management was consistently optimized, and industry synergies were accelerated, laying a foundation for future business development. In 2025, the company also achieved notable results in cross-segment industry synergies. The industrial linkages between the Magnetic Materials Business Division and the Rare Earth Business Division, the industry sharing between the Elevator Business Division and the Magnetic Materials Business Division, and the upstream-downstream resonance between the operations segment and the Rare Earth Business Division demonstrated the wisdom and commitment of the company's entire management team. Regarding the company's main business operations, HuaHong Technology's 2025 Annual Report disclosed: The company has consistently upheld its corporate mission of "Serving the Circular Economy, Creating a Green Life" and steadfastly adhered to its corporate spirit of "Striving, Fact-Based, Innovation, and Dedication," committing to becoming a renewable resource processing equipment manufacturer and a comprehensive resource recycling and utilization operator serving global markets. The company actively deployed renewable resource operation businesses, building a circular economy industry chain centered on end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling, extending downstream to the comprehensive utilization of steel scrap, rare earth recycling materials, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, while continuously exploring possibilities for expansion into related industries such as high-end manufacturing and smart manufacturing. During the reporting period, the company's main business was divided into four major segments: "Renewable Resource Equipment and Operations," "High-End Manufacturing of Elevator Parts," "Comprehensive Utilization of Rare Earth Resources," and "Rare Earth Magnetic Materials." HuaHong Technology's corporate development strategy and business plan announced in its 2025 Annual Report indicate: The company's overall development approach is as follows: strengthen product upgrades and technological innovation in renewable resource processing equipment to further consolidate its leading position in the renewable resource processing equipment industry; actively deploy renewable resource operation businesses, vigorously develop the end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling business, and use this as a main line to expand the comprehensive recycling and utilization of downstream steel scrap, rare earth scrap, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, building the company into a well-known enterprise in the circular economy sector. It will continue to advance the company's dual-wheel drive strategy, increase R&D, production, and sales of precision elevator parts, thereby building Weilman into a global industry leader in elevator signal systems and safety components; through fund operations, equity investments, mergers and acquisitions, and other capital operation models, accelerate the enhancement of the company's capital operation capabilities, achieve resource optimization and integration, continuously monitor extension opportunities in the upstream and downstream industry chain, and actively explore possibilities for the company's expansion into environmental protection, smart manufacturing, and IoT-related industries, forming new driving forces for company development and further enhancing its core competitiveness and profitability. According to the latest SMM price report: On July 17, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 766,000 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. On July 17, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices declined, while inquiries in the spot market were sluggish. As a result, offers from Pr-Nd oxide suppliers edged lower. Nevertheless, most market participants remain confident about the outlook and showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, which limited the actual decline in oxide prices, and low-cost supply remained scarce and hard to find. In the metals market, prices also fell. Magnetic material enterprises saw poor new orders, limiting their ability to accept high metal prices; purchases mainly served rigid restocking demand, leading to sluggish inquiries in the metal market. Upstream and downstream sectors remained locked in a stalemate, with the metals segment continuing to face pressure. In the short term, due to the stagnant trading, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range. Recommended Reading:

Senior Technology expects net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 736 million-900 million in the first half of 2026, compared with a loss a year earlier. The company said strong downstream demand for lithium-ion battery separators supported steady shipment growth, while improving industry supply-demand fundamentals helped separator prices stabilize and recover from last year's lows. Combined with effective cost controls, higher margins drove a significant improvement in profitability.

Zimbabwe's Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube revealed during the World Economic Forum in Dalian that the country is actively considering using its abundant mineral resources as collateral through "resource‑linked debt instruments" to finance road and railway construction projects in cooperation with China. This model aims to leverage future revenue from natural resources as loan guarantees to address the huge funding gap for infrastructure development. Ncube said Zimbabwe has held preliminary discussions with China Railway Group regarding such financing arrangements. He told reporters: "We have discussed resource‑linked debt instruments and hope to use them in the future to support infrastructure development, particularly in the road and railway sectors." Under the envisaged plan, Zimbabwe would assess project costs, toll revenue potential, and the return cycle of required resource investments to determine the scale of resource collateral and the repayment path. As Africa's largest lithium producer, Zimbabwe possesses rich mineral resources, but years of economic mismanagement and political instability have left its infrastructure severely lagging. The African Development Bank estimates that the country needs approximately US$34 billion to modernise its transport and logistics network. The proposed resource‑for‑infrastructure plan resembles the model of the US$7 billion Sicomines copper‑cobalt joint venture in the Democratic Republic of Congo with Chinese companies. As early as September 2025, Zimbabwe's President, during a meeting in Beijing with senior executives of China Railway Group, promoted a railway rehabilitation cooperation plan totalling US$533 million. The project is to be implemented by Chuantie International, a subsidiary of China Railway Group with extensive experience in African projects. The scope of work includes repair and reinforcement of existing lines and bridges, modernisation of signal systems, procurement of 17 locomotives and 209 freight wagons, construction of five new stations, and the key trunk line connecting Beitbridge and Harare – a strategic corridor leading directly to South Africa, which is vital to Zimbabwe's foreign trade. Currently, the project's financing method and formal signing date are still under final negotiation. Zimbabwe's railway network was built during the colonial era and carried up to 12 million tonnes of freight annually in the 1990s. However, decades of underinvestment, equipment obsolescence, and foreign exchange shortages have caused the railway infrastructure to deteriorate continuously. Current annual freight volume has fallen to less than 3 million tonnes – only 15% of its historical peak. Many lines are overgrown with weeds, and a large number of locomotives and rolling stock have been taken out of service, directly weakening the capacity to transport bulk commodities such as lithium, chrome ore, and coal to the ports of Mozambique and South Africa. Consequently, Chinese mining enterprises operating in Zimbabwe – including Tsingshan Holding Group, Sinosteel Corporation, and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt – all face export bottlenecks for their products. The decline of the railway system has forced a large volume of freight onto roads, leading to a surge in heavy trucks, which in turn exacerbates road congestion, traffic accidents, and pavement damage, forming a vicious cycle. In response, the National Railways of Zimbabwe has incorporated this railway rehabilitation into a broader modernisation framework and has engaged in cooperation with 11 private enterprises. Among them, South Africa's Grindrod, through its subsidiary Beitbridge‑Bulawayo Railway Company, has already deployed three locomotives and 150 freight wagons to alleviate current transport pressures. At the same time, Zimbabwe is exploring collaboration with the University of Zimbabwe to leverage the university's innovation centre for localised railway technology R&D and talent training, building capacity for long‑term operations. Analysts point out that if this railway rehabilitation is successfully implemented, it will not only fully restore Zimbabwe's deteriorated railway network, but also provide critical logistics support for the country's US$12 billion mining target, while further deepening the strategic presence of Chinese enterprises in Zimbabwe's mining and infrastructure sectors. According to market dynamics, in recent years – and especially since the beginning of this year – lithium ore shipments from Zimbabwe have been persistently delayed at ports, with insufficient inland transport capacity being one of the main bottlenecks hindering smooth cargo arrivals. As the relevant logistics system upgrades are put into effect, this situation is expected to be significantly alleviated, and the transport efficiency of lithium materials will be notably improved, thereby injecting solid momentum into the stabilisation of global lithium supply. Sources: Mining.com , Azure Track Rail, and SMM

SMM June 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals all fell, SHFE copper fell 0.71%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%. SHFE lead fell 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 2.43%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.79%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.56%. Ferrous metals all fell, iron ore fell 0.94%, rebar fell 0.51%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%, stainless steel fell 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 4.53%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all moved lower. LME copper fell 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 1.56%, LME lead fell 0.84%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell nearly 1%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.07%, COMEX silver fell 3.78%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.91%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.85%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures contract fell 2.23% to 3,689 points. As of 11:43 on June 23, some futures market midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,585-24,770 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,685-24,860 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,515-24,700 yuan/mt. Morning session market quotes against SMM average prices were at a premium of 10-20 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the contract for now... Macro front China: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and Nine Other Departments on Cultivating and Expanding Consumption in the Automotive Aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on implementing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket, stating that the development of automotive modification should be standardized and orderly. Establish and improve automotive modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the automobile modification market, clarify graded and categorized management of automobile modification, determine a list of automobile modification items, and improve management requirements for vehicle inspection and change registration. Improve the standard system for automobile modification. Study the establishment of an automotive modification sub-technical committee under the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee, sort out a list of standards to be proposed or revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop automotive modification parts and modification technical specifications. The notice proposes supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improving the environment for RV travel and use. Support local governments in optimizing management policies for RV road travel. Simplify the land approval process for RV campsites. Enhance the supporting service level of RV campsites. Leveraging regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a number of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites in areas along scenic routes and in suburban areas, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and replenishment, water and electricity supply, medical rescue, and dining and accommodation. Optimize the setup of RV campsite signage, and release premium RV travel routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, where conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for motorhomes and towable caravans may be set up and management strengthened to better meet the parking demand for RVs. [Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments: Announce 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform] On June 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notice, announcing 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform and their key reform and innovation directions. For example, Tianjin focuses on automobile modification, classic cars, and auto racing, Shenyang in Liaoning focuses on used car circulation, Yangzhou in Jiangsu focuses on RV camping, Weinan in Shaanxi focuses on retired vehicle recycling, and so on. The notice requires each pilot city to, based on local industrial characteristics, market features, resource endowments, location conditions, functional positioning, and other actual situations, address bottleneck issues such as unreasonable restrictions on automotive distribution and consumption, improve reform and innovation measures, cultivate new scenarios, new formats, and new models of automotive consumption, and drive the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and healthcare. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments synchronously issued a notice on several measures to cultivate and strengthen the automotive aftermarket consumption. (Xinhua News Agency) [Draft Financial Law submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for first review] On June 23, 2026, the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft) was submitted to the 23rd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress for first review. The Financial Law is a fundamental, comprehensive, and overarching law that governs the financial sector in China. It is positioned as the "1" in the financial legal system, playing a guiding, overarching, and standardizing role. Laws in areas such as banking, insurance, and securities constitute the "N," and other financial laws and regulations form the "X." These must align with the basic provisions established by the "1," with equal emphasis on formulation and revision, to specifically regulate financial activities in each field. Together, "1+N+X" build a scientific, complete, and unified financial legal system. The draft Financial Law adheres to the main theme of strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development, focusing on coordinating development and security, and striving to solve legal difficulties that hinder the high-quality development of finance. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC's reverse repo operation today net injects 75 billion yuan] PBOC today conducted a 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from previous. Today, 449.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.03%, at 101.03. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%. Through September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 26.1%, with a 52.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Citadel Securities said that Fed Chairman Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation has enhanced the Fed's credibility, thereby supporting long-term US Treasury yields and lowering term premiums. Following last week's Fed meeting, trading in the US Treasury market, worth $31 trillion, displayed a characteristic: long-term yields were more stable compared to two-year yields, which are more sensitive to policy. The firm's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Fed should benefit long-end rate performance." (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. The bank's economists had previously expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year. The reason for the revision is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in the Fed's communication, signaling a more proactive approach to tackling inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains in the minority: currently, only 19% of market investors expect three hikes, although this proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. In other currencies: After the yen weakened further and reports emerged of an online meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and US Treasury Secretary Bessent, foreign exchange traders are on high alert for possible intervention. In early trading on Tuesday, the yen was at about 161.57 per dollar, near its lowest level in 40 years. NHK and Kyodo News reported that Katayama and Bessent may have discussed exchange rate issues. The market is concerned that after the Bank of Japan's rate hike at last week's policy meeting, it still has not raised borrowing costs quickly enough to curb inflation, keeping the yen under continuous pressure. Moreover, oil prices boosted by the US-Iran war also weighed additionally on the yen. Yamamoto Takeru, a trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in New York, said: "Japanese authorities may hope to send a signal through the US-Japan talks that they are coordinating actions with the US, while hinting that the threshold for implementing intervention is not high. Although market concerns about intervention have intensified, the fundamental factors for a weaker yen have not changed, and USD/JPY could test the 162 level this week." (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: data to be released today include France's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, Germany's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June services PMI, the UK's June CBI industrial order balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 6, the US preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the US preliminary June S&P Global services PMI, and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Also worth noting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; MSCI releases its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be added to the watch list for developed markets. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic edged lower, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.43%. As the market weighed early progress in peace talks on the Iran war, which included US permission to sell some Iranian crude, oil prices stabilized. The US 60-day license allows Iran to sell some oil and petroleum products. Babin Rebecca, managing director and senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, "The road to negotiations remains long, but the market may anticipate an oversupply before crude oil oversupply actually arrives, just as it had anticipated supply deficits before a genuine crude oil supply deficit materialized. Oil prices often overshoot." (Jin10 Data APP) Danske Bank forecasts that for the remainder of 2026, Brent crude will average $80 per barrel, and rise to $85 per barrel next year. The bank also said that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will not return to the pre-war level of $60-$70 per barrel. The institution said a US-Iran deal would reopen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal. The bank pointed out that the US's continued release of strategic petroleum reserves could affect the near-term supply landscape, and said the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons ahead of the November midterm elections. Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►