SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in the national passenger car market in June, retail volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.037 million units, down 7% YoY. Cumulative figures this year show that new energy vehicle retail volume totaled 4.734 million units, down 13% YoY. Wholesale side, new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached 1.506 million units in June, up 22% YoY; while cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 6.812 million units, up 6% YoY.

[SMM Magnesium Express]Recently, it was reported that Shanxi Kelite Precision Casting Technology Co., Ltd. plans to officially commence production of its light alloy integrated die-casting project in mid-July. With a total investment of 100 million yuan, the project can produce 8 million lightweight robotic precision structural components annually, primarily serving sectors such as meal-delivery robots, household service robots, and new energy vehicles. Leveraging Shanxi's magnesium ore resource advantages, the company has successfully transformed from a traditional pipe-casting enterprise into a high-end precision manufacturing entity. It has introduced cold high-pressure die-casting core technologies and established a provincial-level doctoral entrepreneurship station in collaboration with North University of China. With the project's launch, the large-scale application of magnesium alloy in intelligent robotics and new energy vehicles is expected to deepen further, accelerating the transition of traditional casting enterprises toward high-end magnesium alloy manufacturing.

[SMM Magnesium Express]On July 3, IML and Chongqing Yujang Die-Casting officially established a strategic partnership in semi-solid magnesium alloy forming technology. The two parties will collaborate closely on technological R&D, mass production breakthroughs, and market applications, while deploying multiple large-scale semi-solid injection molding equipment for magnesium alloys. The cooperation aims to integrate the entire chain from materials and processes to mass production, focusing on scaling up the application of magnesium alloys in critical components such as electric drive housings and vehicle structural parts. This will provide high-performance lightweight solutions for industries like new energy vehicles, 3C electronics, and humanoid robots. With continuous progress in industrial chain collaboration, the mass production barriers for semi-solid magnesium alloy forming are expected to be accelerated, further speeding up the process of large-scale application.

[SMM Copper Billet News Flash] According to SMM, traditional end-use consumption sectors for brass remain sluggish. In the home appliance, plumbing hardware, valve, and sanitary ware sectors, off-season procurement has yet to improve, and the growth in new orders remains insufficient. In contrast, copper billet exhibits a notable divergent performance, with orders from sectors such as new energy vehicles (NEVs), AI equipment, and electronics and electricals showing strong resilience, resulting in a clear differentiation in orders.

On July 1, BYD Company Limited released its production and sales report for June 2026. In June, BYD produced 403,246 new energy vehicles and sold 403,472, achieving monthly sales exceeding 400,000 vehicles. Among these, passenger vehicle sales reached 397,292 units, while commercial vehicle sales totaled 6,180 units. By power type, pure electric passenger vehicle sales reached 201,472 units, and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicle sales reached 195,820 units. In terms of exports, new energy vehicle exports totaled 175,300 units in June. On a cumulative basis, from January to June 2026, cumulative new energy vehicle sales reached 1,808,511 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.72%; among these, cumulative passenger vehicle sales reached 1,777,375 units, and cumulative commercial vehicle sales reached 31,136 units.

On July 1, two mandatory national standards—"Safety Requirements for Traction Batteries of Electric Vehicles" (GB 38031-2025) and "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicles" (GB 18384-2025)—will officially come into force. This marks the first time in China's new energy vehicle sector that both battery‑specific and vehicle‑level core safety standards take effect on the same day. The new battery standard establishes "no fire, no explosion" as a mandatory requirement, replacing the previous technical threshold of "providing an alarm signal 5 minutes before fire or explosion." The updated standard also adds tests including bottom impact testing and safety testing after fast‑charging cycles. The vehicle standard requires the installation of an independent physical one‑button emergency power‑off device. The two standards will be implemented in phases: all newly applied vehicle models submitted after July 1 must fully comply with the new rules, while models already approved and on sale are granted a one‑year transition period until full compliance is required by July 2027. Industry players across the supply chain have already entered the final stages of certification review and production‑line retrofitting.

Balanshi released its record of investor relations activities, stating that the steady growth of global vehicle parc and the aging of vehicle fleets are boosting demand for maintenance equipment; inflationary pressures have raised local manufacturing costs in developed economies such as Europe, further highlighting the cost‑performance advantage of Chinese products; and with the growing adoption of new energy vehicles, there will be iterative upgrades and increased demand for products including vehicle lifts, battery lifts, tire changers, and related equipment.

Entering July, the traditionally recognized "off-season" for power batteries appears to be losing its relevance. According to the latest SMM data, power battery production in June continued its growth trajectory, up 9% MoM and over 65% YoY. In July, a month that typically sees a seasonal pullback, production schedules also maintained MoM growth of roughly 9%, displaying a rare "stronger-than-usual off-season" pattern across the industry. What is driving this counter-seasonal growth? Demand Side: PHEVs and EREVs Lead the Way, Commercial Vehicles Show Strong Momentum From the perspective of end-use demand, new orders for new energy vehicles remained robust, particularly for plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and extended-range (EREV) models, which continued to ramp up volume. With product advantages offering a balance of driving range and charging convenience, these have become key growth drivers in the current passenger vehicle market. Meanwhile, new model orders released by some automakers earlier are gradually feeding through to the battery segment, translating into tangible production schedule boosts. The commercial vehicle sector is equally noteworthy. Driven by sustained policy support, the electrification of logistics vehicles, light trucks, and heavy-duty trucks has clearly accelerated, with full life-cycle cost advantages becoming more pronounced in high-frequency operational scenarios. After entering July, commercial vehicle demand did not weaken seasonally but instead maintained a steady growth trend, providing strong support for high-capacity LFP battery cells. The LFP system continues to dominate this round of incremental growth — on one hand, benefiting from the continued volume ramp-up of mainstream A-class and below passenger vehicles, and on the other, receiving an additional boost from the dual drivers of energy storage and commercial vehicle demand. While the overall recovery pace for the ternary system lags behind that of LFP, marginal improvements in high-end BEV models, a new wave of export orders, and some export demand have also driven a certain rebound in ternary battery cell production among top-tier players, effectively supplementing overall industry output. Inventory Side: Low Inventories Drive Pre-stocking Window Forward Beyond direct demand-side drivers, inventory levels across the industry chain serve as another important supporting factor for this "stronger-than-usual off-season." Currently, overall inventory across the power battery industry chain remains at a relatively low-to-normal level (the inventory-to-sales ratio is about 1.3 months), leaving battery cell manufacturers with a thin safety margin for stockpiling. Against this backdrop, enterprises' willingness to actively build inventory has strengthened considerably — rather than waiting for the peak season to arrive and then making passive procurement under delivery pressure, it is better to lock in capacity and accumulate an inventory buffer ahead of time during the off-season window. It is particularly worth noting that this stockpiling activity is expected to continue through August, with the core logic being early positioning for the traditional "September-October peak season." Mainstream battery cell enterprises broadly assess that the end-use consumption peak from late Q3 to early Q4 will bring concentrated cargo pick-up demand. If inventory preparation proves insufficient by then, it will directly impact delivery capabilities and market share. Therefore, the current seemingly "excessive" production schedules are essentially forward-looking, strategic stockpiling actions. Outlook: Peak Season Stockpiling Logic Continues to Unfold, Production Hits New Highs With dual support from both the demand and inventory sides, power battery production is expected to extend its growth trajectory in August. Structurally, LFP will remain the core source of incremental growth, while ternary battery cell output is projected to stage a steady rebound as high-end models and export orders continue to improve. Driven by the combined forces of policy support, new model volume ramp-ups, and proactive stockpiling, a "stronger-than-usual off-season" for the power battery industry is likely to become a defining feature of H2 2026, laying a solid foundation for achieving the full-year production target. SMM New Energy Industry Research, Lithium Industry Analyst, Wang Zihan 021-51666914

As the global automotive industry accelerates its low-carbon and intelligent transformation, China’s automotive industry is shifting from scale advantages to dual leadership in technology and supply chains. In 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 50%, driving upgrades in automotive materials such as aluminum, steel, and magnesium, and triggering a surge in demand for lightweight new materials. Coupled with the implementation of the EU carbon tariff, low-carbon transformation across the industry chain has become urgent. At the outset of the 15th Five-Year Plan and amid the deepening “dual-carbon” phase, the industry urgently needs a professional platform to address material technology challenges. Against this backdrop, will be held September 10-11, 2026 in Shanghai . SMM together with the exclusive title sponsor for drinking water — Anhui Xiongchuang Aluminum Alloy New Material Co., Ltd. —sincerely invites industry peers to attend, helping drive the automotive supply chain toward deeper evolution in green, lightweight, intelligent, and global directions. Click to attend; we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Anhui Xiongchuang Aluminum Alloy New Material Co., Ltd. was established in October 2018 with registered capital of 100 million yuan. Located at No. 12 Yanghuai Road, Economic Development Zone, Suixi County, Huaibei City, Anhui province, it is a private new-type aluminum alloy materials enterprise integrating R&D, production, and sales. The company’s total land area is 63,603 m², equivalent to approximately 95.5 mu. The planned total building area is 32,000 m², with supporting utility and auxiliary works to be constructed. Total project investment is approximately 150 million yuan, including 95 million yuan in construction investment. The overall designed capacity is 150,000 mt per year. Its main products include high-quality cast aluminum alloy ingots of various grades, molten aluminum alloy, and secondary aluminum alloy rods, mainly used in sectors such as automotive and new energy . Key production equipment includes domestically advanced high-efficiency, energy-saving automatic melting furnaces, achieving high efficiency, energy savings, reduced dross generation, and improved molten aluminum purity. The production equipment, technical standards, and economic indicators have reached an advanced level among comparable production processes in China. The company is committed to R&D and manufacturing initiatives to substitute aluminum for steel and aluminum as an substitute for copper, promoting lightweighting of components for automobiles, rail transit, and aerospace, achieving energy conservation and emissions reduction, and protecting the Earth’s environment. For every 1 mt of secondary aluminum we recycle and reuse, we can reduce ore mining by 11 mt, cut carbon dioxide emissions by 0.8 mt, reduce sulfur dioxide emissions by 0.6 mt, reduce solid scrap emissions by 20 mt, save 22 m³ of water, and save 14,000 kWh of electricity. Soaring ahead with innovation to break through! Xiongchuang Aluminum Alloy uses integrity to build its backbone and service to forge brilliance! In the future, we will fully leverage our industrial strengths, integrate resources from all sides, target market development trends, and create more value for our clients. Contact Information Mr. Liu 181 0561 3888 Mr. Yang 151 3040 8133 SMM Conference Contact Lv Junlei 176 1601 9596 lvjunlei@smm.cn