The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, the total primary aluminum output overseas in April 2026 fell 10.2% year-on-year, while the average daily overseas output dropped 10.0% month-on-month, mainly as the impact of production cuts at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters became more evident. During the period, despite accelerated production resumptions at overseas primary aluminum smelters amid high prices, the overall incremental volume was far lower than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in overseas primary aluminum output in April. Per Alcoa’s Q1 earnings report, the company announced on April 8, 2026 that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain had been safely completed. According to Vedanta’s production report, its primary aluminum output in the 2026 fiscal year (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) hit a record high of 2.456 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, mainly driven by improved operational efficiency. As per an official announcement from Century Aluminum, idle capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has commenced restarting, with the first batch of primary aluminum production underway. It is expected that the resumed capacity will reach full operational status by the end of June, involving a total capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. In addition, the second production line at its primary aluminum smelter in Iceland has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. Staff are energizing the first batch of electrolytic cells for the second line and will accelerate the restart of remaining cells, targeting a near-full production level by the end of July. Looking ahead to May 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, together with the ramp-up of new capacity in Indonesia, are expected to push average daily output higher month-on-month, though year-on-year output is projected to remain in sharp negative growth. Overall, given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, overseas primary aluminum output is expected to stay in sustained year-on-year negative growth in the short term. Market participants shall continue to monitor subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East as well as global aluminum inventory trends.

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.

This week (April 3, 2026 - April 9, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters across the three provinces was 61.48%, down 0.57 percentage points WoW. This week, a small-scale smelter in Henan that had previously shut down for maintenance resumed production, and the operating rate in Henan edged up. In Hunan, after smelters maintained stable operations, some plants marginally increased output. In Yunnan, smelter maintenance and resumption coexisted, and the operating rate in Yunnan registered negative growth this week. Smelters in other regions maintained stable production for the time being. A smelter in east China mentioned expectations of possible maintenance in May, but the specific plan has not yet been confirmed. SMM will continue to monitor the situation.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,945/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it continued to rise and touched a high of $1,955/mt before weakening and dipping to $1,937/mt. Before the close, it recovered part of the losses and finally closed at $1,946/mt, up $2.5/mt, a gain of 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. It rose early to a high of 16,815 yuan/mt, then moved lower and weakened. After touching 16,730 yuan/mt at the low, it rebounded to hover and consolidate near the intraday moving average, and finally closed at 16,765 yuan/mt, up 0 yuan/mt from the previous day’s settlement price, with a % change of 0%. On the macro front: US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, marking the first single-month negative growth since 2020. After the data release, traders increased their bets on US Fed interest rate cuts in 2026. Analysts believed that a weakening labour market, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, intensified market concerns over stagflation risks. Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at an economy-themed press conference that this year’s GDP increment was expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan, equivalent to the annual total of a developed economy, which would provide strong support for stabilising employment, improving people’s livelihoods, and preventing risks. On investment, 109 major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan will be advanced this year, focusing on building the “six networks” such as water networks, power grids, and computing power networks, as well as facilities for the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. The related investment scale this year was expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, and suppliers mostly made shipments at discounts, especially for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters, which were quoted at relatively larger discounts. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works, leaving no price spread versus primary lead. In addition, with some imported lead entering the domestic market, downstream enterprises had more procurement options, and transactions in the spot order market remained sluggish. Inventory: As of March 6, LME lead inventory stood at 285,900 mt, unchanged from the previous day; last Thursday, SMM five-region social inventory of lead ingots edged up again and remained at a five-month high. Lead price forecast for today: In March, both supply and demand for domestic lead ingots increased. With imported lead supplementing supply and downstream pre-holiday inventories being digested slowly, lead prices lacked upward momentum. The secondary lead segment was currently in a loss-making state, reducing smelters’ willingness to resume production. Some enterprises delayed their production resumptions to mid-to-late March, briefly providing supportive conditions for lead price performance. This week was also the week before delivery for the SHFE lead 2603 contract. In the spot market in Henan and Hunan, deals for premiums over the SMM #1 lead average price were slightly difficult to conclude. Suppliers and smelters were expected to continue transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, and expectations of a continued build in visible inventory were still set to keep lead prices under pressure.

[SMM Aluminum Express] Entering March 2026, the operating capacity of newly commissioned aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing. However, there is a risk of production cuts or halts at the Mozambique aluminum plant. Affected by this, the daily average aluminum production may turn to negative growth. Despite this, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate faster global aluminum supply. The resumption of production at the Iceland aluminum plant is expected earlier than originally planned; the operating rates at other aluminum plants have also slightly increased. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain a growth trend, but global aluminum inventory trends still require ongoing monitoring.

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production totaled in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with the overseas daily average production up 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed that Alba's production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire accident at year-end 2025. The production line affected by the fire is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated that primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 fell 14% QoQ, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at the Iceland aluminum plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at the Mt. Holly plant is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than originally planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and recover to near full capacity by the end of July. South 32's performance report showed that the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique maintained its FY2026 guidance production of 240,000 mt, meaning the Mozal plant is expected to transition into maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported that the government is taking necessary measures to keep the Mozal plant operating. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but the Mozal plant faces risks of output reduction or shutdown. Affected by this, daily average aluminum production may turn to negative growth. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration; the Iceland plant's production resumption is expected earlier than planned; other plants also slightly increased operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, and global aluminum inventory trends need ongoing attention. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

[SMM Hot Topic: From "Scale" to "Quality" – The Shift and Restructuring of Traditional Construction Steel Demand] From 2026 to 2030, the domestic demographic dividend will gradually shrink, and the era of rapid growth in the real estate industry will come to an end, with the industry's development logic shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement.

SMM May 7 News: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic market base metals generally declined, with SHFE tin rising by 0.73%, SHFE copper by 0.84%, SHFE nickel falling by 0.21%, SHFE lead by 0.09%, SHFE aluminum by 0.55%, and SHFE zinc by 0.27%. In addition, alumina rose by 0.85%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up by 1.13%, stainless steel by 0.55%, rebar by 0.52%, HRC by 0.84%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 0.11%, and coke by 0.13%. Overnight, LME base metals generally declined, with LME copper falling by 0.15%, LME zinc by 0.27%, LME tin rising by 0.02%, LME lead by 0.29%, and LME aluminum by 0.02%. LME nickel fell by 0.04%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold surged by 3.6%, and COMEX silver by 2.96%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose by 1.6%, and SHFE silver by 0.45%. Data released by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that global central banks net purchased 17 mt of gold in March. Demand remained strong, with global central banks purchasing 35 mt of gold and selling 18 mt in March, of which Uzbekistan net sold 11 mt. As of 8:09 on May 7, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Announcement: The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and other departments will make statements at 9 a.m. on the 7th to introduce the "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations"] According to a May 6 announcement from the State Council Information Office, the office will hold a press conference at 9 a.m. on May 7, where officials from the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" and answer questions from reporters. [Announcement: The Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference in May on May 8] The Ministry of Commerce is scheduled to hold a press conference at 3 p.m. on May 8, 2025 (Thursday), where a spokesperson will introduce the latest key work in the commerce sector and answer questions from reporters. [Announcement: Public Consultation on the Establishment Plan for the MIIT E-bike Standardization Working Group] In response to industrial development and industry management needs, relevant entities have proposed an establishment plan for the e-bike standardization working group under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). To further gather opinions from all sectors of society, the establishment plan is now open for public consultation until June 5, 2025. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell by 0.56% to 99.24.Hopes for a US trade deal are fading, and the US dollar is in trouble. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that the US trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, as companies increased imports of goods ahead of tariff announcements, dragging the US gross domestic product (GDP) into negative growth for the first time in three years in Q1. Uncertainty over US tariffs has led to a deterioration in US consumer confidence data, with many companies withdrawing their financial forecasts. Speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed will remain patient until the impact of tariffs is reflected in economic data before deciding whether and how to adjust monetary policy. The Fed began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, and the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. In other currency news: The president of the Swiss National Bank stated that the main concerns of businesses are geopolitical uncertainty, weakening European demand, and the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the past two weeks. Switzerland is facing a triple hit from tariffs. Our responsibility is to stabilize prices in Switzerland, and we must use interest rates and exchange rates to ensure this. Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel said that the appreciation of the Swiss franc has been significant, and policymakers are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary to maintain price stability. (Caijing) The euro rose against the US dollar, mainly driven by the overall weakness of the US dollar. Since April, the euro has appreciated more than 5% against the US dollar, as investors question the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system and turn to favour the euro as an alternative currency. The euro is also supported by expectations of increased German defense spending. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the lowest level since early 2023, and removed the term "restrictive" from its policy language, while warning that the economic outlook has deteriorated due to trade tensions. The market expects the European Central Bank to make three more 25-basis-point interest rate cuts before the end of the year. (Huitong Finance) On the macro front: Today, data such as Australia's April AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index, New Zealand's Q1 unemployment rate, New Zealand's Q1 labor force participation rate, China's April foreign exchange reserves, Russia's April SPGI Services PMI, France's March trade balance, the eurozone's March retail sales month-on-month rate, the eurozone's March retail sales year-on-year rate, and Canada's April leading indicators month-on-month rate will be released. In crude oil news: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose sharply overnight, with WTI up 3.27% and Brent up 3.01%. This is due to signs of increased European demand, a decline in US production, and tensions in the Middle East.Additionally, buyers emerged in the market on the second day after oil prices fell to a four-year low, factors that supported oil prices. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that for the week ending May 2, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.494 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.974 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 2.242 million barrels. Analysts surveyed earlier had expected, on average, a decline of 800,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, a decrease of about 1.5 million barrels in gasoline inventories, and a reduction of about 1.3 million barrels in distillate fuel oil inventories for the previous week. The EIA will release official oil inventory data at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that US oil production in 2025 is expected to be 13.42 million barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 13.51 million barrels per day. Production in 2026 is projected to be 13.49 million barrels per day, compared to the prior estimate of 13.56 million barrels per day. The EIA maintained its global oil production forecast for 2025 at 104.1 million barrels per day and expects production to reach 105.4 million barrels per day in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 105.3 million barrels per day (Webstock Inc.).

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo—Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Zhang Yuting, Senior Manager of SMM Consulting Division, provided a brief analysis of the competitive landscape and hot topics in China's aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry. The Rise of New Energy: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Aluminum Plate/Sheet Industry Driven by the development of new energy, future consumption of aluminum plate/sheet is expected to grow, while frequent global trade frictions pose challenges. The rise of new energy presents both challenges and opportunities for the aluminum plate/sheet industry. Key Points: According to preliminary SMM statistics, China's aluminum plate/sheet production increased from 10.3 million mt in 2017 to over 13.4 million mt in 2024. In recent years, China's aluminum plate/sheet production has continued to rise significantly. This trend is not accidental; it reflects the country's robust economic development and strong demand for basic materials, marking a new stage of development for China's aluminum plate/sheet industry. Key Points: According to SMM survey statistics, there are currently 30 relatively clear aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction nationwide, with a total designed capacity of over 6 million mt, and several more projects yet to be confirmed. By product, battery foil, aluminum plate/sheet for new energy, and brazing materials are the main projects for expansion. By region, the under-construction capacity is mostly concentrated in major aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil production provinces such as Yunnan and Jiangsu. According to SMM survey statistics, there are currently 30 relatively clear aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction nationwide, with a total designed capacity of 4.71 million mt, and several more projects yet to be confirmed. By product, battery foil and secondary aluminum plate/sheet have become the main new projects. Among the 30 projects, 13 are related to battery foil, with a total designed capacity of 1.1 million mt. Several companies have already laid out plans for secondary aluminum plate/sheet, with related projects having a total designed capacity of 1.57 million mt. By commissioning time, almost all the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction are expected to be completed before 2025, with 2024 being the most concentrated year, as over 2.4 million mt of new capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2024. By enterprise scale, the under-construction capacity is almost entirely owned by large enterprises. The concentration of capacity in the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry is gradually increasing. By region, the under-construction capacity is mostly concentrated in major aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil production provinces such as Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. New aluminum plate/sheet projects are relatively concentrated in Henan, while new aluminum foil projects are relatively concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Key Points: The terminal structure continues to adjust. Driven by plastic restriction policies and lightweighting policies, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in packaging and transportation has increased. Although profit margins may shrink in recent years, production can still grow against the trend, with representative products such as automotive sheet and battery foil. Meanwhile, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products with relatively low added value, such as those used in industrial machinery and architectural decoration, is expected to continue to decline. Packaging materials such as can stock and food packaging foil have consistently accounted for the largest share among the many terminals of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil in recent years, with a share of 35%-45%; the three major terminals of mechanical equipment, construction, and transportation each account for about 20%. After three consecutive years of growth, packaging materials experienced negative growth in 2023. The proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in transportation continues to rise, with representative products such as automotive sheet and brazing materials. Driven by the "ensure timely delivery of housing projects" policy, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet products used in construction increased in 2023, but the overall trend will continue to decline. The requirements for carbon emissions of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in packaging and transportation are particularly evident, and other fields may also propose similar carbon reduction requirements in the future. Key Points: China's cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis will suppress the export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises in the short term but will benefit the development of high-value-added product exports in the medium and long term. The cancellation involves 24 aluminum-related codes, covering almost all major domestic aluminum semis products such as aluminum extrusion, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum bar and rod. Impact and Analysis: For many years, due to policy incentives and the product advantages of Chinese aluminum semis, Chinese aluminum semis have maintained a competitive advantage of being high-quality and low-cost in overseas markets. In the short term, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis may increase the export costs of aluminum semis export enterprises to some extent, suppressing the export enthusiasm of Chinese aluminum semis processing enterprises, and the aluminum processing industry may face a "pain period" lasting about half a year. However, the industry's major reshuffle is also a rare new opportunity. In the medium and long term, as an important global exporter of aluminum semis, there is a certain gap in the supply and demand of overseas aluminum semis. In the absence of corresponding supply increments overseas, the phased reduction in China's aluminum semis exports and the increase in export costs can both push up overseas aluminum prices, widening the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Without considering exchange rates, the export profits of domestic aluminum semis will rebound, regaining related advantages, thereby restoring China's aluminum semis exports in the medium and long term. In addition, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis does not involve high-value-added aluminum products, which will also stimulate domestic aluminum export enterprises to develop high-value-added product exports. Key Points: The US policy of imposing a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports to the US has limited impact on China's aluminum product exports but may increase spot premiums in the US, further raising procurement costs for US domestic enterprises. Additionally, it is necessary to be vigilant about changes in US domestic consumption demand and pay attention to demand trends in other overseas regions. Impact and Analysis: The US imposition of hefty tariffs has led to a surge in domestic aluminum prices in the US, with the price spread between US and European aluminum reaching a historical high. At the same time, the export costs of China's aluminum products have increased, putting some pressure on the SHFE aluminum market. Before the official implementation of the tariffs, market sentiment was cautious, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. To cope with long-term trade frictions, China has promoted the diversified development of aluminum product exports and accelerated the transformation to high-value-added products by adjusting export tax rebate policies and implementing countermeasures, shifting the industry from an export-oriented model to one that balances domestic and foreign demand. Although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, the fundamental supply and demand of the global aluminum market will dominate price trends in the medium and long term. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total aluminum semis exports to the US in 2024 were around 257,000 mt, up 7% YoY, while China's total exports in 2024 were 6.303 million mt, up 19.2% YoY. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports to the US accounted for only about 4.1% of the total. Therefore, the volume of China's direct exports of aluminum semis to the US is limited, and the impact on China's overall exports for the year is minimal. Compared to aluminum semis, the influence of aluminum products exported to the US on China's overall exports has increased. However, from a global demand perspective, there are still many options outside the US, and the combination of high-quality and low-cost Chinese products with the price spread advantage between domestic and overseas markets maintains China's strong competitiveness in capacity. SMM has learned that domestic enterprises have not provided much negative feedback on this policy, stating that short-term order volumes may slightly decline due to the need to renegotiate processing fees and other changes in taxation. However, in the long term, the US's own capacity is difficult to meet its demand, and new capacity takes time to build. The import demand for Chinese aluminum products and those from other regions remains, which may ultimately lead to higher aluminum prices in the US and increased procurement costs for US terminals. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports of aluminum semis to Mexico and Canada accounted for 14.06% in 2024. Trump stated that there are "no exceptions or exemptions" for the 25% tariff, and as major aluminum semis suppliers, Canada and Mexico are significantly affected. The imposition of tariffs will likely lead to higher costs for US terminals, potentially causing a decline in US demand for aluminum, weakening exports from Canada and Mexico, and indirectly affecting demand for Chinese aluminum semis. Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo.