Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

SMM News, March 23: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall buying sentiment increased today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.72, down 0.58 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.3, up 0.07 MoM. Today, aluminum prices extended their decline, and premiums in central China remained in positive territory. Traders’ willingness to purchase and stockpile was somewhat lower than in the previous two days. Although downstream processing enterprises showed some willingness to buy the dip, they still did not make large-scale concentrated purchases, and overall market purchase sentiment weakened somewhat. In the end, actual quotes and transaction prices in the central China market declined all the way, from a 50 yuan premium over the central China price before the opening to near parity with the central China price, while suppliers showed no obvious willingness to hold prices firm. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.63, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.48, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

SMM News, March 23: Aluminum ingot: On March 23, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,410, down 650, at a discount of 175 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After plunging in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract rebounded slightly. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market stayed barely firm, while buyers' overall purchasing sentiment today was overall satisfactory. Current prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers generally held prices firm, but with inventory buildup over the weekend and ample circulating supply, overall price support was clearly constrained by shipment pressure. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were mainly concentrated at premiums of -180 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.