According to the Mining Journal, the Ecuadorian government intends to implement a new mining tax aimed at bridging the fiscal gap, but it may deal a severe blow to the exploration sector. The proposed mining inspection fee (Tasa de Fiscalización Minera) is expected to generate $229 million in annual tax revenue for Ecuador, with the intention of strengthening technical and environmental monitoring of the industry. This tax applies to all levels of mining activities, except for small-scale mining. The Ecuadorian Mining Chamber (CME) has strongly criticized this move, stating, "This matter was never consulted with the industry, and we believe it represents a significant technical obstacle to the responsible and sustainable development of the mining sector." While acknowledging the need for enhanced state control and industry regulation, the CME has criticized the structure of the tax. It is levied per hectare, with different tax rates for projects at various stages. The CME claims, "For medium-to-large-scale mining projects, especially those in the exploration phase, this approach is not feasible." The final tax amount may exceed the exploration investment of the project, the CME added. "This makes regulation an obstacle rather than a tool." Ecuador's largest mining projects include Lundin Gold's Fruta del Norte gold mine and EcuaCorriente's Mirador copper-gold mine. Exploration The CME has also criticized the new tax for imposing additional financial burdens on non-revenue-generating exploration companies, which are in the most vulnerable growth phase. "Although we understand that, as an administrative fee, it does not require formal legal authorization, it must adhere to the constitutional principles of appropriateness, reasonableness, and equality. From its design, this fee is unrelated to the cost of the services it provides or the economic capacity of taxpayers, and it may have an extraordinary impact on exploration activities," the CME stated. The CME's analysis indicates that this fee will make Ecuador less competitive in exploration compared to other Latin American countries. Ecuador's fee is $11.5 per hectare, while Colombia's is $6.7, Chile's is $4.5, and Peru's is $3. "Ecuador is the most expensive country for exploration in the region, and the new tax makes this difference even more pronounced," the CME said. In 2024, exploration investment in Ecuador was $67 million, compared to $493 million in Argentina, $568 million in Peru, and $637 million in Chile. In other aspects, the cost of mine construction in Ecuador is relatively high. Although the country provides mining investors with the ability to sign investment protection agreements, thereby stabilizing their financial situations, its mining law adopts a floating royalty rate that varies between 3% and 8% depending on changes in metal prices. Under the current gold and copper prices, mining companies are facing the situation of the highest royalty rate.

[Ontario Pushes Through Controversial Mining Reform to Accelerate Project Development] On June 5, The Ontario government has passed Bill 5, a sweeping and controversial mining law designed to fast-track large-scale development projects across the province. Known as the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act, the legislation grants Premier Doug Ford’s administration authority to establish “special economic zones,” allowing select projects to bypass provincial regulations and local bylaws. The bill has drawn strong backlash from Indigenous groups, environmental advocates, and opposition parties, who argue that it weakens environmental protections, undermines Indigenous consultation rights, and was passed without adequate public debate. Provisions to mandate Indigenous consultation were promised but ultimately excluded. Despite the criticism, the Ford government has pledged C$3 billion to support Indigenous equity participation in mining ventures, alongside C$70 million for training and C$10 million for scholarships. It also introduced a six-month mining tax deferral to support the sector amid global trade tensions. Ontario remains a critical player in Canada’s mining landscape, contributing nearly 25% of the nation’s total mineral output. In 2023, the province’s mining sector generated C$15.7 billion, led by gold and nickel production.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 78,340 yuan/mt and a low of 77,710 yuan/mt during the session. The closing price was 78,150 yuan/mt. The overall trend fluctuated upward. The price increase was 0.31%, with a trading volume of 26,894 lots and an open interest of 157,842 lots.

On May 23 (Friday), Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski stated that under the new system, Poland's copper ore mining tax would be reduced starting next year.

On May 23 (Friday), Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski stated that under the new system, Poland's copper ore mining tax would be reduced starting next year. The mineral extraction tax, which includes copper, was introduced in 2012. According to the annual report of KGHM, Poland's largest copper ore producer, the company paid 3.87 billion zlotys in taxes in 2024. Domanski said that the tax reduction and the introduction of investment expenditure deductions would reduce tax revenue by approximately 10 billion zlotys ($2.66 billion) over a decade and lower costs for copper ore producers by the same amount. Jakub Jaworowski, Minister of State Assets, stated that, in fact, KGHM is the supplier of approximately 85% of Europe's copper, which is absolutely crucial.

According to a report on the BNAmericas website, the mining industry has become a major source of tax revenue for Ecuador, primarily from two operating mines: the Mirador copper mine and the Fruta del Norte gold mine. Data from investment consulting firm Humboldt Management shows that in 2024, Ecuador's mining industry generated over $1 billion in tax revenue. This represents a 218% increase from 2019, when tax revenue from the mining industry was only $315 million in the year the Mirador (July) and Fruta del Norte (November) mines commenced production. This figure represents a 31% increase from the $763 million in 2023. Currently, mining taxes account for approximately 5% of Ecuador's total tax revenue. However, this proportion is expected to increase significantly by 2030-31, as six projects are expected to commence construction and operation. Curipamba-El Domo will be the first project to break ground. In September this year, Silvercor and Salazar Resources will invest $241 million to construct the beneficiation plant and ancillary facilities for this polymetallic project. This investment will significantly boost VAT revenue. Due to rising copper and gold prices, income tax revenue is also expected to increase in 2025. In 2023, Ecuador's export value of mineral products (including small mines) was close to $3 billion. Rebeca Illescas, the Deputy Minister of Mines, predicted last month that mineral product exports are expected to increase by 10%-14% this year. Daniel Noboa, who was re-elected, will begin his new term on May 24, presenting significant development opportunities for the mining industry. However, regardless of political changes, developing the mining industry remains a crucial national policy for Ecuador.

After the Indonesian government increased taxes and fees in the mining sector, mining companies warned of declining profits, which could lead to production cuts. The Indonesian government announced last weekend that it would raise royalty rates for minerals such as nickel, coal, copper, and gold. Among them, nickel saw the largest increase, with rates rising from a fixed 10% to a range of 14% to 19%, depending on the market price of nickel. Nickel is a crucial raw material for lithium-ion batteries and one of the essential green metals for achieving the global energy transition. It is also an important raw material for stainless steel production. Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer, currently accounting for over half of the global supply. With the Indonesian authorities increasing mining taxes and fees, several mining giants, including Vale and Freeport-McMoRan, will be affected. "This is an additional burden, especially during a period of low commodity prices," said Hendra Sinadia, executive director of the Indonesia Mining Association, commenting on the government's new policy. Sinadia pointed out that operating costs would rise, and profits would be impacted. He added, "Some companies may have to reduce production or even close mines." As a pillar of Indonesia's economy, commodities are a significant driver of economic growth. In particular, the nickel industry has seen rapid development in recent years, attracting record foreign investment. However, Indonesian nickel producers are facing challenges due to persistently low nickel prices, caused by slowing global demand for electric vehicles and an oversupply of nickel in Indonesia. In addition, nickel producers must also cope with rising costs from other recent regulations in Indonesia. According to mining companies, this year's cost increases have also been influenced by higher VAT rates and the requirement to use more biodiesel as fuel. Since March this year, Indonesia has also required natural resource exporters to retain more overseas earnings in the country for at least one year to boost foreign exchange reserves and stabilize the rupiah's exchange rate, which is currently near historic lows. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association stated that raising taxes and fees amid falling nickel prices and escalating global trade wars is "extremely ill-timed." In a statement, the association said, "Increasing royalties may weaken investor interest in the upstream and downstream nickel industries, reduce the competitiveness of Indonesian nickel products in the global market, compress profits, and lead to significant layoffs." A senior nickel industry executive pointed out that miners without their own processing facilities will be the most affected. He said they might pass on higher costs to smelters, impacting the entire supply chain.

【Market Review】 1. Futures Market: The SHFE tin 2505 contract closed down 14,930 yuan/mt MoM to 254,100 yuan/mt. Open interest for SHFE tin increased by 3,354 lots to 77,268 lots. 2. Spot Market: Disturbances in raw materials persist. Affected by macro sentiment, SHFE tin fell sharply again, with smelters holding back cargoes. Traders showed a moderate willingness to sell, reporting that some downstream buyers placed inquiries and orders at low prices, mainly for essential needs. Morning transactions were moderate. 【Related News】 1. According to Bloomberg, US officials stated that additional 50% tariffs on Chinese products will take effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on April 9 (12:01 PM Beijing Time on April 9). Previously, after the US imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on China, China retaliated by imposing 34% tariffs on all US imports. Trump announced early on April 8 Beijing Time that if China did not revoke the new 34% tariffs by April 8, an additional 50% would be imposed, potentially raising total tariffs to 104%. China firmly opposes this, reiterating that "if the US persists, China will respond in kind." 2. On April 9, China released a white paper on its stance on China-US economic and trade relations, emphasizing the need to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and to find solutions through dialogue and consultation. 3. Earlier on Tuesday, according to CCTV News, US Trade Representative Greer stated that "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on April 9. Trump's negotiations with other countries on tariffs have no specific timetable. Trump has made it clear that tariff exemptions will not be implemented in the near term. Market interpretation: Dalio warned investors that we are experiencing a "once-in-a-lifetime" systemic collapse of global monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. The five fundamental forces driving this transformation are the collapse of the monetary order, political turmoil, the reshaping of the geopolitical order, technological change, and natural disasters. 4. Indonesia's Minister of Mining stated that Indonesia plans to impose mining royalties in the second week of April. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will soon issue a ministerial decree listing new royalty rates, increasing royalties for various minerals and coal mining commodities. Previously, on March 8, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released a public consultation on "Adjustments to the Types and Rates of Non-Tax State Revenues in the Energy and Mineral Resources Sector," indicating that it is considering raising mining taxes for various minerals from copper, tin, nickel to coal. For tin, the previous single royalty rate of 3% may now be adjusted to a progressive rate (3%-10%) based on market prices. 5. The pre-resumption meeting for the Wa State, originally scheduled for April 1, was canceled. The Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued a notice on March 26, 2025, scheduling a pre-resumption meeting for the Mansiang mine at 8:00 AM Myanmar Time on April 1 at the Mansiang office. However, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, 2025, prompting the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration to issue a notice on March 31, 2025, postponing the Mansiang mine resumption meeting. Galaxy Interpretation: The Myanmar earthquake has raised market concerns about tin ore transportation and the progress of subsequent resumption efforts. 【Logical Analysis】 The supply gap in tin fundamentals remains, with no news of resumption in the DRC. After the cancellation of the resumption meeting in Myanmar, its annual supply may not see significant increases. Indonesia's policy of shifting from a single royalty rate to a progressive rate (significantly higher) for tin exports may soon be implemented. Subsequent attention will focus on the final policy, as the increase in royalties may significantly impact local companies' mining costs, potentially tightening the tin supply-demand situation. However, despite strong supply-demand imbalances in fundamentals, tin prices are more significantly affected by macro factors. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, market concerns about a subsequent global economic slowdown led to a sharp decline in non-ferrous metals, which have since remained in the doldrums. Overseas macro markets, driven by uncertainty about future global demand, have fueled panic sentiment, with bearish funds entering the market and driving tin prices to move weakly in line with the sector. Yesterday, LME tin spot premiums fell sharply. Subsequent attention will focus on whether the market returns to fundamental logic after the panic sentiment subsides. 【Trading Strategy】 1. Unilateral: Before the panic sentiment over concerns of economic weakness is digested, tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in line with the sector. Caution is advised. 2. Options: Temporarily on hold. (Source: Galaxy Futures)

The policy drive for the transition of the world in cleaner, renewable energy has really triggered an unbeatable surge in the demand for such metals as cobalt, lithium, and nickel. They are very important development factors in electric vehicle economies, batteries, energy-storage systems, and renewable energy technology in general. Indeed, technological development is creating demand for such metals on one hand, while there are major government policies that drive the demand much deeper: from tax breaks and subsidies given to green technologies down to rules covering imports and exports, numerous policy measures reach and set prices of such critical metals.

Recently, domestic antimony ingot market prices have continued to rise sharply, with actual trading volume being limited. Due to the impact of news such as the arrivals of Russian ore, the market supply side still maintains a cautious attitude, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.