[Oxide Price Recovery Drives Up Metals, Magnetic Material Maintenance Weighs on Demand, Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment in Scrap] Last week, as oxide prices recovered, metal suppliers slightly raised their quotations, but market inquiries remained limited. Downstream magnetic material enterprises showed limited acceptance of high-priced metals, creating a sluggish trading atmosphere with actual transactions in the doldrums. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, inquiries remained scarce, and prices for terbium metal and dysprosium-iron alloy showed no significant fluctuations, maintaining overall stability.

[Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream Persists, Metal Transactions Are Weak, and Magnetic Materials Enter High-Temperature Off-Season] Yesterday, NdFeB blank quotes were slightly lowered, primarily because raw material prices drove down NdFeB prices. In terms of transactions, as July drew to a close, regions across China experienced high temperatures, and motor factories and end-users gradually began their high-temperature holidays. The operating rates of motor factories and end-users weakened significantly, reducing demand for rare earth permanent magnets, which ultimately led to persistently sluggish trading activity in the NdFeB market.

India's Vedanta reported a 72% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit to INR 54.73 billion for the quarter ended June 30, driven by higher prices for zinc, copper and silver. Revenue rose 51% to INR 234.56 billion, while net profit margin expanded to 22% despite higher raw material costs. The company also announced that Arun Misra, currently CEO of Hindustan Zinc, will become Vedanta's Chief Executive Officer for a one-year term starting August 1.

[Production Under Pressure, Marginal Supply Reduction, Structural Trend Divergence in Silicon Metal]: The silicon metal industry chain exhibited a clear gaming pattern, with structural divergence between upstream and midstream. On the supply side, silicon enterprises faced cash flow losses, and a small number undertook maintenance and production halts; however, the limited actual cuts had no directional impact on market sentiment. Silicon enterprises showed a strong inclination to hold prices firm and were unwilling to lower quotes to boost orders, while the industry’s in-factory inventory showed an accumulating trend. In the midstream, social inventory destocked continuously in recent weeks. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets saw improved transaction activity at low futures prices, and inventory in the trade circulation segment continued to destock. The tightening of circulating supply drove the spot-futures price spread to strengthen, and spot silicon metal was more resistant to declines than futures.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Weak Demand Persists, Industry Chain Prices Drift Lower] This week, affected by news factors and futures fluctuations, Pr-Nd oxide prices overall remained in the doldrums. Some traders sold at low prices, and metal plants' purchase willingness was poor during the price decline. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices were adjusted down to 743,000-748,000 yuan/mt.

[Bearish for precious metals] The Fed held rates steady but internal divisions deepened, with the hawkish tone yet to waver. On July 30, the Fed announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes. However, the vote was 9 to 3, with three regional Fed presidents supporting a rate hike — the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes appeared, highlighting the strengthening of the hawkish camp internally. At the press conference, Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated the unwavering 2% inflation target and stressed that decisive action would be taken if inflation conditions worsen. Market expectations for a September rate hike increased, and the extended period of elevated rates continued to weigh on precious metal valuations. US Treasury yields hit multi-year highs, with high real rates raising holding costs. Driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and fiscal supply pressures, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained elevated above 4.6%, while the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly breached 5.2%, its highest since 2007. The opportunity cost of holding precious metals as non-yielding assets remained high, dampening their appeal to investors. The US dollar index continued to consolidate at highs, while the rebound in oil prices reinforced the inflation-rate hike chain. The US dollar index consolidated at highs this week within the 101-101.5 range. Although it pulled back slightly after the Fed decision, its overall strong trend remained intact, directly weighing on dollar-denominated precious metal prices. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East conflicts drove a sharp rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude back above $90 per barrel. The rise in energy prices heightened the risk of a second-round inflation effect, in turn reinforcing the logic for the Fed to maintain high rates and potentially hike further. Labour market resilience exceeded expectations, supporting prolonged high rates. In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell to 187,000, the lowest since 1969 and a near 50-year low, demonstrating the labour market's considerable resilience. The strong employment data reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate cut and provided fundamental support for further rate hikes. The period of elevated real rates was further extended, continuing to weigh on the valuation of non-yielding precious metals. [Bullish for precious metals] The Fed decision materialized as expected, and as the bearish news was fully priced in, sentiment recovered. The outcome of the Fed holding rates steady had been fully priced in by the market beforehand. Although the signals were hawkish, no actual rate hike materialized. This allowed previously suppressed bullish sentiment to be released in a phased manner, driving a modest rebound in precious metals futures. Equity market volatility intensified, with hedging demand edging up on the margin. This week, US stock market correction pressure intensified, with the Nasdaq 100 entering a technical correction zone. Tech stocks' earnings expectations and high valuations came under pressure in the high-rate environment. The rise in equity market volatility prompted some funds to increase their allocation to gold as a risk hedging tool, providing additional support to short-term buying. Global trade frictions escalated across the board, and policy uncertainty boosted hedging demand On July 24, the US formally imposed tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 global trading partners, covering over 99% of total US trade, replacing the emergency tariffs previously ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court with Section 301, significantly enhancing legal compliance. Among them, 14 economies were subject to a 10% rate and 46 to a 12.5% rate, with only energy, natural gas, and a few other categories exempt. Trade barriers raised the risk of a global economic recession, and policy uncertainty drove funds to seek hedges in non-sovereign credit assets such as gold, resonating with geopolitical risk aversion. China’s gold ETFs saw sustained net inflows, and physical demand formed a bottom support China’s gold ETFs saw net capital inflows for multiple consecutive days, attracting over 300 million yuan over the past 8 days, reflecting that domestic investors’ demand for gold allocation continued to rise. Coupled with the long-term trend of global central bank gold purchases, physical demand imposed tangible constraints on the downside room for precious metals. [Macro Summary] This week, the precious metals market saw intense battles between bulls and bears, and overall moved sideways in a narrow range. On the one hand, repeated geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and escalating global trade frictions provided periodic safe-haven buying support; on the other hand, the Fed’s strengthened hawkish stance, persistently high US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the rebound in oil prices that pushed up rate hike expectations collectively exerted sustained pressure. A clear directional trend has yet to emerge. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in rate hike expectations for September, the evolution of the Middle East situation, and the marginal impact of further escalation of trade frictions.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices Extend Weakness, Trading Atmosphere Sluggish] Overall, under the dual pressure of declining Pr-Nd oxide futures and sluggish market inquiries, the trading atmosphere in the rare earth market was subdued, actual transactions stalemated, and prices continued to be in the doldrums. In the near term, affected by the tug-of-war stalemate between buyers and sellers, Pr-Nd product prices are likely to maintain a narrow sideways movement pattern.

On July 29, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held a press conference on the H1 2026 performance of the nonferrous metals industry, both in-person and online. Chen Xuesen, Standing Committee Member of the Party Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of CNIA, reported on the industry's H1 performance and answered questions from media and enterprise representatives together with relevant department heads. Chen Xuesen stated that the industry's overall operation was stable and improving, with growth in multiple core indicators including production, investment, foreign trade, prices, and profitability. First, production of major varieties grew steadily, while new energy metals diverged. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that total production of ten nonferrous metals in H1 reached 41.513 million mt, up 3.3% YoY. Among the 23 nonferrous metal products monitored, production of 13 products increased YoY, while that of 10 products fell YoY. Production and sales of traditional bulk metals were stable with slight gains: copper cathode output was 7.608 million mt (up 5.2%), copper semis 11.982 million mt (up 0.3%), alumina 45.772 million mt (up 3.3%), and primary aluminum 23.187 million mt (up 3.8%). However, upstream mines and downstream processing sectors faced periodic pressure: metal content of six mined metals was 2.955 million mt (down 5.8%) and aluminum semis production was 32.303 million mt (down 2.4%). Industry value-added grew 0.3% in H1, with value-added of the mining and beneficiation sector up 3.2% and that of smelting and processing edging down 0.3%. Production of key new energy metals diverged: silicon metal output was 2.231 million mt (up 2.5% YoY); lithium carbonate capacity release was significant, with production at 563,000 mt (surging 33.9% YoY); refined nickel and refined cobalt output contracted to 221,000 mt and 60,000 mt, down 4.8% and 41.8% YoY respectively. Second, fixed asset investment edged up, with prominent investment vitality in the mining and beneficiation sector. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry narrowed significantly from Q1 in H1. On one hand, project construction progress was constrained by high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions; on the other hand, resource constraints became prominent and capacity "involution" intensified, so enterprises had weak willingness for medium and long-term capital expansion domestically and turned more to overseas markets. Overall, the industry's fixed asset investment edged up only 0.4% YoY, down 10.3 percentage points from the Q1 growth rate, with notable sector divergence: investment in nonferrous metals mining and beneficiation rose 21.2%, while investment in smelting and processing declined 4.1%. Private investment was under pressure overall, with industry private investment down 1.0% YoY in H1. By sector, private investment in smelting, rolling and processing fell 3.0%, while that in mine mining and beneficiation grew 8.1%, becoming the main driver of private investment in the industry. Third, foreign trade scale surged significantly, and gold products became the core engine of trade growth. Amid sluggish global economic recovery and intertwined geopolitical turmoil, the industry's foreign trade saw improvements in both volume and quality, with import and export scale expanding substantially. Customs data showed that in H1, total imports and exports of nonferrous metal products reached $347.13 billion, up 68.0% YoY. Specifically, import value was $280.91 billion, up 81.7%, driven mainly by gold products, while export value was $66.22 billion, up 27.3%. The share of gold product imports and exports in the industry's total trade rose to 41.8%, playing a prominent role in boosting overall foreign trade. Bulk raw material imports and exports showed mixed changes. Among them, imports of copper ores and concentrates were 14.61 million mt, down 0.9% YoY, while bauxite imports were 120 million mt, up 17.4%. Imports and exports of copper and aluminum semis showed a pattern of "reduced imports and increased exports." Specifically, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 2.49 million mt, down 5.3%, while exports were 879,000 mt, up 18.2%; imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 1.88 million mt, down 5.1%, while exports were 3.396 million mt, up 16.3%. In addition, exports of aluminum products (including aluminum alloy wheel hubs) were 2.576 million mt, up 16.4%. Foreign trade in new energy metals continued to gain momentum. Specifically, lithium carbonate imports were 179,000 mt, up 52.3% YoY, silicon metal exports were 379,000 mt, up 11.4%, and unwrought nickel exports contracted sharply to 12,000 mt, down 86.9%. Fourth, market prices consolidated at high levels, with most product prices falling back MoM in June. Affected by overseas resource monopolies and the transmission of geopolitical conflict premiums, major nonferrous metal prices stayed high in H1, but the high prices also forced downstream enterprises to advance material substitution, which to some extent squeezed the industry's demand growth space. In June, market prices saw a phased correction, with 17 of the 24 products monitored by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) seeing MoM declines. In terms of H1 average prices, seven products declined YoY, but mainstream products such as copper, aluminum, gold, zinc, tungsten and molybdenum saw price increases. In the domestic spot market in H1, among traditional metals, apart from lead, whose average price was 16,649 yuan/mt, down 1.5% YoY, copper averaged 101,964 yuan/mt, up 31.4%, aluminum averaged 24,124 yuan/mt, up 18.8%, zinc averaged 24,276 yuan/mt, edging up 4.2%, while for precious metals, the average spot gold price was 1,058.4 yuan/g, up 45.9%, and silver averaged 19.7 yuan/g, surging 141.1%. New energy metals showed divergent price changes, with the average price of silicon metal at 9,079 yuan/mt, down 10.7%; battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/mt, surging 128.1%; nickel at 142,000 yuan/mt, up 12.5%; and cobalt at 417,000 yuan/mt, up 101.5%. Fifth, industry profits increased significantly, with the smelting segment becoming the core pillar of profitability. In H1, the profitability of the industry achieved a leap-forward improvement. The 12,362 enterprises above designated size recorded total operating revenue of 5,769.68 billion yuan, up 21.7% YoY, and total profit of 418.39 billion yuan, up 94.0% YoY. The profit growth accounted for 32.6% of the total profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide, boosting the total profit growth of national designated industrial enterprises by 6.1 percentage points, ranking among the top in the industrial sector in terms of profit growth rate. Meanwhile, cost control showed positive results, with the cost per hundred yuan of operating revenue for the above-designated-size enterprises at 90.0 yuan, down 2.7 yuan YoY. The sharp profit increase was driven by multiple favorable factors resonating together: First, tight ore supply and rising scarcity premiums pushed profits toward upstream mines. Second, emerging industries such as AI computing infrastructure, power batteries, energy storage, and NEVs continued to release rigid demand, strongly supporting non-ferrous metal product prices and market demand. Third, geopolitical conflicts periodically pushed up aluminum and sulphuric acid prices, generating phased profit gains; combined with the low price base in H1 2025, these factors jointly drove a sharp YoY increase in profits this year. The profit structure of the industry chain showed a pattern of smelting leading, mining following, and processing being relatively weak. The contribution rates of the mining, smelting, and processing segments to industry profit growth were 23.6%, 65.5%, and 11.0%, respectively, boosting industry profit growth by 22.1, 61.6, and 10.3 percentage points. The profitability difference across the industry chain was significant, with operating profit margins for mining, smelting, and processing standing at 40.6%, 8.9%, and 2.0%, respectively, up 10.3, 3.4, and 0.7 percentage points YoY. The profit increase in the smelting segment was 132.74 billion yuan, accounting for 65.5% of the industry’s profit growth. Aluminum smelting and gold smelting contributed 56.7% and 17.3% of the profit increase in the smelting segment, making them the main drivers of profit growth in the segment. By product, the aluminum sector had the most prominent boosting effect, with a profit growth contribution rate of 43.5%. Dividends from supply-side structural reform in aluminum continued to be released, and global supply tightened due to geopolitical disruptions, pushing aluminum prices persistently higher. The contribution rates of gold, copper, and tungsten & molybdenum were 13.0%, 13.6%, and 9.0%, respectively. Together, these four categories contributed 79% of the industry’s profit growth, becoming the main force behind the profit rise. Profits in only two categories, antimony and silicon metal, were under pressure, while all other metal types achieved positive revenue increases. Chen Xuesen pointed out that since this year, the industry has demonstrated strong development resilience under the dual tests of external risk shocks and internal structural constraints. H1 operations presented three features: support from emerging industry demand, synchronized improvement in industry volume, price, and profit, diversified expansion of overseas resource deployment and continuous improvement of international resource guarantee systems, and prominent domestic resource supply constraints, with primary ores and recycled resources synergistically shoring up weaknesses. Taking all factors into account, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) makes the following projections for the industry's 2026 trajectory: H2 nonferrous industry value-added growth rate is expected to be higher than H1, with a full-year industry value-added growth rate of 2%~3%; production of ten nonferrous metals for the full year is up about 3% YoY; major nonferrous metal prices will swing wildly at highs, with geopolitical situations, downstream demand, and overseas supply being the core variables driving price fluctuations; total import and export value will maintain growth for the full year, with import growth being higher, driven by high-price resource procurement and safe-haven demand; exports of copper and aluminum semis and products possess stable resilience, continuing to provide support for stable foreign trade exports; full-year industry operating revenue and total profit remain up YoY, but revenue and profit growth rates will pull back in H2, with the growth rates showing a pattern of stronger first half and weaker second half; the profit allocation pattern remains unchanged, profit advantage at the resource end remains solid, and except for aluminum smelting, the room for profit improvement in other types of smelting and processing is relatively limited. Chen Xuesen stated that in the next step, the industry will closely follow the deployment and requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on three core tasks: strengthening the resource security baseline, expanding the recycled resource circular industry, accelerating the green and low-carbon transition and proactively addressing international green trade barriers, and cultivating new development momentum and activating enterprise innovation vitality. Multiple measures will be taken to solidify the foundations of the industry chain and supply chain, promoting both quality and efficiency improvements. (China Nonferrous Metals News)

[Pr-Nd oxide fell below the 750,000 CNY/ton mark, making scrap recycling procurement more difficult] Yesterday, affected by fluctuations in futures prices, offers for Pr-Nd oxide in the market pulled back further after the afternoon session. Suppliers, with poor inventory positions, showed low willingness to quote at low prices, while downstream metal plants maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to poor Pr-Nd market transactions. In the medium-heavy rare earth sector, downstream demand remained persistently weak, but supplier quotations stayed firm, keeping dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices stable.

SMM July 29: On July 29, mainstream spot rare earth prices in China extended their stay in the doldrums, while the A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept sector drifted higher, showing a pronounced divergence between the spot market and the secondary market. The strength of rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks was underpinned by multiple factors: The production costs of rare earth permanent magnet enterprises are directly related to spot rare earth prices. The phased decline in raw material prices was expected to ease cost pressure on midstream magnetic material enterprises; the rare earth permanent magnet sector underwent continuous corrections in the prior period, with valuations pulling back to relatively low levels, attracting some capital to enter and position; meanwhile, the market remained bullish on sectors such as humanoid robots, NEVs, and industrial motors, expecting these areas to drive medium- and long-term demand growth for high-performance NdFeB, with capital trading around downstream growth expectations. As of the close on July 29, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose 1.25%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintian Shares and Jiaozuo Wanfang gained over 4%, while Lizhong Group, Zhenghai Magnetic Material, Sanchuan Wisdom, and Xiangdian Shares led the gains. Rare Earth Prices Overall in the Doldrums; Inquiries for Pr-Nd Oxide Recover Spot market: On July 29, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended the decline from the previous trading day to fall a further 0.66%. The average prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were unchanged from the previous trading day. Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remained sluggish. By product, in the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered, and inquiry activity in the market gradually increased, prompting spot suppliers to raise their quotes. However, downstream buyers had low psychological price levels, limiting actual upside room for spot cargo, with prices still weak compared to yesterday morning. In the metal market, influenced by the recovery in oxide prices and reduced availability of low-priced goods, suppliers slightly raised their quotes; but downstream magnetic material enterprises only maintained just-in-time restocking and were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving metal prices still in the doldrums compared to yesterday morning. The medium-heavy rare earth products showed divergent trends: overall inquiry volume saw no significant increase, with suppliers of dysprosium and terbium products maintaining relatively stable quotes and the market generally steady; inquiries for gadolinium products were sluggish, with prices continuing to decline; in the holmium oxide market, inquiries increased, and alongside tighter low-priced supply, suppliers raised their quotes. However, holmium iron inquiries did not improve simultaneously, as magnetic material enterprises resisted high-priced goods, keeping holmium iron quotes unchanged. In the short term, the market is characterized by intense bargaining between sellers and buyers. Before any notable improvement in the supply-demand relationship, Pr-Nd prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range. Institutional Voices Soochow Securities stated in a report dated July 29: Tungsten and rare earths are subject to mining quota management. Since 2025, both have faced quota tightening, intensifying supply-side constraints. For tungsten mines, the Ministry of Natural Resources lowered the first batch of total tungsten mining indicators for 2025 and strictly controlled production exceeding or without quotas, keeping the raw material circulation persistently tight. Rare earths are jointly regulated under a total volume control mechanism by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). In recent years, growth in total rare earth mining quotas has been highly restrained, with quotas for medium-heavy rare earths showing near-zero growth. Rare earths: Material system upgrades for high-capacity MLCCs are expected to boost demand for medium-heavy rare earths. Heavily doping the ceramic material of MLCC shells with rare earth oxides such as dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide can effectively address inherent defects like poor temperature stability, insufficient insulation resistance, susceptibility to degradation under reducing atmospheres, and abnormal grain growth, meeting the performance requirements of high-capacity MLCCs. We estimate that (1) the unit consumption of medium-heavy rare earth oxides per 100 million MLCCs is about 15 kg; (2) from 2025 to 2030, AI servers and automotive electronics are expected to boost global MLCC demand from 663.1 billion units to 1,362.9 billion units; (3) corresponding demand for dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide will rise from 101 mt to 207 mt, a CAGR of 15.5%, with a net increase of 106 mt. As China’s rare earth supply landscape trends toward rigid total volume constraints, continuous structural optimization, and intensifying disruption outside China, the price center for medium-heavy rare earths is expected to rise. A report published by Guojin Securities on July 26 showed: Pr-Nd oxide prices fell MoM. Dysprosium oxide prices are expected to benefit from the boost by MLCCs, with a notable trend of rebounding from the bottom. Coupled with expectations of more relaxed exports going forward, they are more bullish on subsequent demand. The export rush outside China combined with sustained supply-side reform progress suggests a potential supply-demand resonance in rare earths. Xiangcai Securities noted in a report that recently, some raw ore separation enterprises have suspended operations due to factors such as group integration, while scrap recyclers that previously suspended or cut production have not yet resumed, keeping output persistently low. Production growth is limited and costs remain high and firm, leading to overall tightness in the oxide supply side. Metal is relatively ample, but producers are firm in their quotations and shipments, with little pressure to sell. On the demand side, expectations are improving, with Q3 demand recovery expectations gradually strengthening. Production at most large magnetic material enterprises remains stable, supported by long-term contract orders, and new export orders are expected to improve. Overall, the supply side remains tight, expectations for market growth are relatively low, downstream demand is moderate, and the overall trend is improving. The market is following a steady upward path, and rare earth prices are expected to be raised moderately going forward. Recommended reading: