This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking coal costs for coke producers declined somewhat, and with the first round of coke price increases now fully implemented, losses at coke producers narrowed significantly, boosting production enthusiasm. Coke supply increased steadily, while downstream demand remained moderate, shipments were smooth, and producers' own inventory continued to decline. Demand side, steel mill blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, steel mills have recently seen good coke arrivals, with most mills' coke inventory at mid-range levels and overall procurement sentiment remaining average. In summary, coke market fundamentals have shifted toward looser supply and demand, and coupled with weaker recent cost support for coke, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term, with further price increases facing greater difficulty.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash Update】Inventory side, affected by higher copper prices, enterprises became more cautious in raw material procurement, and raw material inventory pulled back; downstream pick-up pace was relatively slow, with enterprises basically balancing production and sales, and finished product inventories edging down slightly. Next week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and SMM expects the operating rate to pull back MoM to 82.58%.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters will maintain normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot copper output will continue, while imported copper will arrive successively, making spot cargo in circulation in the post-holiday market more ample. In addition, although some suppliers sold off cargo slightly during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drive overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still have the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, with spot discounts receiving some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of ample supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount after the holiday.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coke producers maintained relatively good operating rates, and coke supply increased steadily. Downstream rigid demand for coke still existed, coke producers' shipments were relatively smooth, and there was no obvious inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal output increased, driving up rigid demand for coke. However, futures declined recently, and end-use demand remained weak, weakening market sentiment and reducing steel mills' purchase willingness. In summary, after the coke price hike, market sentiment weakened, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

On 26 March 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding that designates the Grande Orientale Iron Ore Project (MIFOR) as a flagship venture receiving priority support from Chinese stakeholders. It is estimated that this mining concession holds cumulative resources of between 15 billion and 20 billion tonnes, boasting an average iron grade exceeding 60 per cent. The first phase of the development is projected to require a capital expenditure of 28.9 billion US dollars. Initial production is targeted at 50 million tonnes per annum, with a long-term strategic objective to expand operational capacity to 300 million tonnes per annum.

Inter-product price spreads are a segment of the rebar spread system characterized by complex logic and abundant trading opportunities. Unlike the spot-futures price spread, which reflects the spot-futures structure, and calendar spreads, which reflect near- and far-term expectations, the core of inter-product price spreads lies in macroeconomic structural adjustment and profit distribution across the industry chain. From the perspective of the industry chain, inter-product price spreads for long steel products are mainly concentrated in the following four areas:

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Moved Sideways, with Cost Support Keeping Spot Stainless Steel Largely Stable SMM News on April 1: SS futures fluctuated. Stainless steel futures rose first and then fell, with a relatively small intraday change, closing at 14,180 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, SS futures fluctuated, while prices of various furnace charge materials remained relatively firm, supporting stainless steel prices. Market quotations were largely stable, with limited room to rise or fall. Although downstream end-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, current market inventory pressure was not high, and prices were still expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,275 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 195-395 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions from downstream end-users remained steady, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, with procurement mainly driven by restocking based on demand, and the brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had yet to emerge. Overall demand remained steady and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made it difficult for the short-term impact on SS futures to be fully eliminated; however, recently...

[Volvo Cars to Exclusively Sell Lynk & Co EVs in Europe] On March 30, Volvo Cars announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Geely Automobile to become the exclusive importer and dealer of EVs under Geely’s Lynk & Co brand in the European market. Volvo Cars said: “The company plans to sell Lynk & Co car models through Volvo Cars’ retail network and use its sales and after-sales system in relevant markets.”