Antimony prices maintained a steep downward trend this week. Entering the first half of June, overall market trading activity remained sluggish. End buyers stayed largely on the sidelines, purchasing only to meet immediate demand with a cautious stance. Nevertheless, certain enterprises faced mounting mid-year sales pressure and ramped up shipments. Recent selling prices from suppliers, particularly for antimony oxide, saw substantial price concessions. Suppliers prioritized moving inventory, which drove a rapid slump in market prices.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract was quoted at discounts of 260-140 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 200 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 104,490 yuan/mt, up 1,460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[U.S.-Iran Conflict Sees Dramatic Reversal, ECB Rate Hike Weighs on Metal Prices] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also create a bullish driver for aluminum prices; this Thursday, the destocking pace of China's aluminum ingot social inventory noticeably accelerated, effectively alleviating the previous high inventory pressure. However, China's high inventory pressure remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly undergo volatile adjustments.

Over the next 1-2 weeks, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to mainly edge lower amid stability. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices will face relatively greater downward pressure, while mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke may see limited declines due to rigid demand support from the prebaked anode industry. The overall market will remain in the doldrums.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,599/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,683/mt in early trading, then swung wildly downward to a low of $13,590/mt near the session’s end, eventually closing at $13,590.5/mt, up 0.54%. Trading volume reached 19,200 lots, and open interest was 271,000 lots, down 1,319 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,780 yuan/mt, quickly rose to 104,870 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,270 yuan/mt, later swung wildly before closing at 104,390 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 1,482 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Daily Briefing] Supply side, coking coal prices keep rising, and the cost of furnace feedstock stays high, continuously squeezing profit margins of coke enterprises, leading to weakened production willingness and a slight pullback in coke output. At present, the shipment pace of coke enterprises is smooth, and coke inventory at their plants keeps declining. Demand side, downstream steel mills are operating normally, blast furnace operating rates stay high, and there is stable rigid demand for coke. In some regions, steel mills' coke arrivals are insufficient, and restocking demand has increased to some extent. Overall, the current supply-demand pattern in the coke market remains tight. In the short term, the coke market will continue to show a strong tendency, with price movements overall improving.

[SMM Nickel Express] On June 8, SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2.44, down 0.01 MoM, the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.95, flat MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.93, down 0.02 MoM. Today, nickel pig iron market trading activity was mediocre, quotation ranges were wide, and price divergence between buyers and sellers persisted.

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to tomorrow, last Friday (June 5) the US May non-farm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, and the March and April non-farm payrolls figures were revised upward. Market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike this year intensified, pushing the US dollar index back above the 100 mark and exerting notable pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after the copper price decline, end-user dip-buying sentiment recovered, with active pricing and orders significantly increasing compared with last Friday, boosting overall market trading activity. Meanwhile, suppliers’ willingness to sell at low prices weakened, and today’s spot discount for SHFE copper narrowed markedly from earlier levels. From the perspective of delivery dynamics, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE copper 2606 contract. As delivery approaches, suppliers are more inclined to ship to delivery warehouses, which is likely to further tighten the availability of low-priced cargo and provide support for the spot discount. The spot discount is expected to continue narrowing before delivery.

[SMM North China spot copper cathode market] As copper prices fell, downstream demand for copper cathode was boosted; today, the average spot premiums for copper cathode in the SMM North China region rose by 60 yuan/mt, and market trading activity showed a recovery.

Today in North China, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at an average discount of 300 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 260 yuan/mt up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 103,850 yuan/mt, down 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.