This week, the industry chain exhibited a diverging pattern, with upstream raw material and cobalt salt prices weakening while midstream and downstream material prices remained relatively stable. Trading in refined cobalt, intermediate products, cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, Co3O4, and cobalt powder was generally sluggish. Downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement, as off-season demand was insufficient, and inventory pressure along with low-priced supply continued to weigh on market prices. Although some miners and smelters, supported by high-cost inventory, still intended to hold prices firm, traders and recycling companies became more active in selling, and the decline in the cost of refined cobalt reverse dissolution further strengthened market expectations of pushing for lower prices. In the short term, related product prices still face downward pressure. Ternary cathode precursor, ternary cathode material, and LCO prices remained stable overall. Leading ternary cathode precursor companies performed well in export orders, and domestic production schedules recovered somewhat, but small and medium-sized enterprises were still affected by the off-season. Demand for ternary cathode materials from the EV sector stayed at a high level; some battery cell enterprises stockpiled in advance, and August orders are expected to be stable with slight growth. Consumer-side demand remained mediocre. Affected by sluggish end-use demand and substitution by ternary cathode materials, LCO production and sales remained low, further narrowing enterprises' profit margins. Subsequent market recovery will still depend on the restocking pace in mid-to-late August and the release of demand during the September-October peak season.

[Stalemate Between Upstream and Downstream Persists, Metal Transactions Are Weak, and Magnetic Materials Enter High-Temperature Off-Season] Yesterday, NdFeB blank quotes were slightly lowered, primarily because raw material prices drove down NdFeB prices. In terms of transactions, as July drew to a close, regions across China experienced high temperatures, and motor factories and end-users gradually began their high-temperature holidays. The operating rates of motor factories and end-users weakened significantly, reducing demand for rare earth permanent magnets, which ultimately led to persistently sluggish trading activity in the NdFeB market.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, LME Zinc Posts Bullish Candlestick] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,569.5/mt. At the start of the session, it attempted to rise above the daily average line but met resistance and pulled back, touching a low of $3,555/mt. Subsequently, LME zinc consolidated and shot up to hit a high of $3,594/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc fluctuated lower towards the daily average line and traded around that level. It eventually closed up at $3,573/mt, gaining $5.5/mt, or 0.15%. Trading volume decreased to 7,361 lots, while open interest fell by 4,171 lots to 246,900 lots.

[Light rare earth prices are under pressure, medium-heavy rare earth market remains stable] Currently, the overall circulation frequency of rare earth ores is still poor, the market trading situation is stagnant, and weak oxide prices have led to a decline in actual transaction prices of rare earth ores.

[US-Iran Conflict Renews Disruption to Commodities; Geopolitical Premium Boosts SHFE Aluminum to Surge with Heavy Volume] Overall, the persistent Middle East geopolitical risk premium, combined with continued destocking of domestic aluminum ingots, jointly underpins aluminum prices; however, the continuous launch of overseas aluminum forward capacity, weak traditional end-use demand in China, along with repeated shifts in overseas expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation, exert notable pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices maintain a consolidation pattern.

[News-Driven Disturbance Coupled with Futures Impact, Pr-Nd Oxide Pulled Back Sharply] Yesterday, affected by a combination of news-driven factors and disturbances in the futures, Pr-Nd oxide prices started to pull back rapidly from the afternoon session, with most suppliers suspending quotations; on the medium-heavy rare earth front, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices moved relatively steady, showing no notable fluctuations.

In late July, China's aluminum billet processing fees have continued to pull back from their highs in June, with φ120 aluminum billet processing fees in some major consumption areas approaching the production cost line. Amid weakening marginal demand during the off-season, increased arrivals in South China, and a relatively stable center in aluminum prices, whether processing fees can hold firm near the cost line has become the core issue of market focus....

[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Billet Processing Fees Pull Back to Near Production Cost Line – Can They Hold Firm?] Entering late July, China’s aluminum billet processing fees have continued to pull back from June highs, with φ120 aluminum billet processing fees in some key consumption areas approaching the production cost line. The market is feeling the dual pressure of holding prices firm and making shipments. According to SMM’s latest data, as of July 23, social inventory of aluminum billets in China’s key consumption areas climbed to 121,000 mt, marking two consecutive weeks of inventory buildup. Over the same period, warehouse withdrawals fell to 33,000 mt, a clear WoW pullback. Against a backdrop of weakening off-season demand, increased arrivals in South China, and relatively stable aluminum price centers, whether processing fees can stabilize near the cost line has become the core issue the market is watching.

[Pr-Nd Stagnant Yet Stable, Medium-Heavy Rare Earth Remains Weak, Scrap Price Inversion Unresolved] Yesterday, affected by the pullback in oxide prices and weak procurement enthusiasm from magnetic material enterprises, some metal suppliers lowered their quotations, and actual transactions remained weak. In the medium-heavy rare earth market, inquiries remained sluggish; terbium metal prices dipped slightly, while dysprosium-iron alloy remained relatively stable.

[Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap Weekly Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand in a Tug-of-War; Short-Term ADC12 Prices Maintain Sideways Movement] This week, ADC12 prices continued to move sideways. As of today, the SMM ADC12 quotation was adjusted down by 100 yuan/mt from last Thursday to 24,000 yuan/mt. During the week, cost support from aluminum scrap remained, and enterprises showed little willingness to voluntarily cut prices. However, constrained by weak off-season demand, prices lacked upward momentum. The overall market exhibited a tug-of-war pattern characterized by "selling at stable prices and transacting based on orders.