[US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, SHFE and LME Centers Continued to Move Lower This Week] At the beginning of the week, the market was heavily affected by geopolitical disruptions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend; subsequently, from a fundamental perspective, inventories outside China accumulated sharply, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled significantly, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower......

[SMM Daily Brief Review on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers still faced slight losses, suppressing their willingness to increase production, and overall supply remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, shipments from coke producers improved, and coke inventory continued to destock. Demand side, blast furnaces at steel mills resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments recovered, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm. However, downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement and lacked willingness to purchase for restocking. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke fundamentals still existed, and the coke market may remain stable next week.

Downstream Purchasing Activity for Nickel Intermediate Products Increased, Tight Supply and Demand Drove Prices Higher

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Titanium Dioxide Price Hikes Took Effect, Market Adjustments Released Upward Signals] This week, the titanium industry chain showed a divergent trend. The titanium concentrate market remained in the doldrums, with imported ore prices falling लगातार under pressure from downstream efforts to push for lower prices and accumulating port inventory. Titanium dioxide, meanwhile, saw the second round of collective price adjustments in mid-month under persistently high sulphuric acid costs. Mainstream enterprises in China raised domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, pushing the quoted center up to 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, though follow-up from domestic demand remained mediocre and foreign trade orders showed clear divergence. The titanium slag market stayed in the doldrums, with prices under pressure amid weak costs and demand. In the titanium sponge market, leading enterprises took the lead in raising prices, with domestic prices up 2,000 yuan/mt and international prices up $300/mt. Supported by restocking demand for titanium materials and low inventory, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream processing segments still maintained a wait-and-see stance, and titanium ingot and titanium plate/strip prices only edged up slightly. Overall, cost support and structural demand divergence coexisted, and future price trends still depended on substantive improvement on the supply and demand side.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Quotations Rose in Tandem SMM News, March 20: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Base metals futures generally recovered, with SS futures showing particularly strong performance and basically recouping this week’s losses, closing at 14,160 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by the strong rebound in SS futures and coupled with stainless steel mill agents’ efforts to hold prices firm, stainless steel retail quotations also moved higher accordingly; supported by improving market sentiment, both inquiry activity and trading picked up. High-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums, and the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was announced below market expectations, leaving weak cost support for stainless steel. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and recovered. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 220-420 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotations in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Entering the traditional September-October peak season, although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and procurement only...