According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the foreign market producer price index (F-PPI) for Turkey’s basic metal manufacturing industry increased by 3.31% month-on-month in April 2026. This monthly rise contributed to a substantial 34.02% year-on-year surge compared to April 2025, while the twelve-month moving average index advanced by 34.33%. Across all industrial sectors, the overall F-PPI climbed by 2.27% month-on-month and 31.75% year-on-year. The market impact indicates that high domestic energy tariffs, fluctuating currency pressures, and persistent core inflation continue to elevate input costs for Turkish mills, forcing them to lift their export offer prices to preserve margins.

The European Parliament has officially approved a comprehensive package of new steel trade protection measures designed to shield the European steel sector from aggressive non-EU import surges. Welcomed by Eurofer and European steel producers, these updated regulations streamline the enforcement of anti-dumping duties, expand retrospective surveillance monitoring, and establish automated triggers to counter global excess capacity leakages into the single market. The policy update aims to insulate the region's domestic mills as they absorb the high financial burdens of transition capital expenditure. The market impact outlines a heavily restrictive trade environment for international steel exporters.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China's April CPI YoY, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, and US April retail sales MoM. Additionally, US-Iran peace talks have been fraught with twists and turns—Iranian media claimed the US violated the ceasefire agreement, Iranian armed forces struck US warships, and talks are currently stalled, posing significant macro uncertainty risks. LME lead side, ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango, with another "one-day" backwardation structure appearing during the week. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding ex-China geopolitical factors remains high, and their market impact warrants continued attention. LME lead is expected to trade within $1,950-2,000/mt next week. SHFE lead side, next week the SHFE lead 2605 contract enters delivery, with more suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses. Lead ingots will transfer from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the continued buildup in visible lead ingot inventory will keep dragging on lead prices. Meanwhile, concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises have become the main driver of supply reduction this month. Additionally, the closure of the import window and secondary lead losses provide price support. After delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need new catalysts to determine direction. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade within 16,550-16,950 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,450-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in off-season mode, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises are expected to resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, leading to regionally tight lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supply. Lead prices are unlikely to see significant discounts (vs. SMM #1 lead). .

Futures platinum prices continued under pressure today. In the daytime session, the most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) closed at 491.7 yuan/gram, down 1.07%. The SGE Pt9995 versus GFEX PT2606 spread remained inverted. Spot side, mainstream spot quotations' discounts continued to narrow slightly compared to the previous trading day. In the daytime session, mainstream quotations from spot platinum traders were at a discount of 1-3 yuan/gram to PT2606. Recently, tax authorities launched a special campaign to regulate invoice practices, strictly controlling enterprise invoicing limits. However, as platinum and palladium trade volumes were relatively low in value, the market impact was relatively small compared to other products. Only some traders suspended precious metals quotations due to impacts on their main business, and a small number of spot cargoes with invoices dated this month were quoted at higher prices. Transaction side, according to SMM, daytime session transactions at the mainstream discount of 1-3 yuan/gram were hindered. Market purchase intention prices were around a 4 yuan/gram discount to GFEX. Downstream enterprises made rigid-demand bargain purchases. The overall market was in a strong holiday atmosphere, and consumption remained sluggish.

[SMM Steel] Marcegaglia, in partnership with Danieli, plans to invest €1 billion in a new EAF-based steel plant in Fos-sur-Mer, France. The facility is designed to produce >2 million mt of steel and up to 3 million mt of HRC annually. In the short term, the project signals future supply expansion and a shift toward low-carbon steel, though no immediate market impact is expected before final approval.

War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

On Feb 24, 2026, China placed 20 Japanese firms, including Subaru, on an export control watchlist for unverifiable end-use of dual-use items. This signals tighter controls on critical minerals and tech amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts. The analysis examines the firms' supply chain roles and the long-term industrial implications.

On February 24, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 12 of 2026, adding 20 Japanese entities, including Subaru Corporation, to the export control "watch list" on the grounds of "inability to verify the end-users and end-uses of dual-use items." This move marks the first time since January 2026 that China has explicitly implemented such list-based management measures targeting Japanese enterprises, signaling a shift toward more precise, systematic, and in-depth development of export controls in the fields of critical minerals and high-tech materials. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the core backgrounds of these 20 enterprises, reveal their deep-seated connections with supply chains of critical materials such as rare earths, and explore the potential impact of this measure on the future global industrial landscape.

①The adjustment window for distributed energy has entered a phase, and industry insiders predict that the adjustment will be completed in as quickly as one quarter. The fundamental logic from development to investment decision-making will undergo a complete transformation. ②The market space for the industrial and commercial sectors has further expanded. Domestic module producers have begun to focus on addressing the remaining challenges in developing rooftop resources and have launched targeted products. ③Competition in large-scale projects is fierce, and centralized products will also accelerate their development towards differentiation.