SMM August 4 news: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

Overall, upstream producers support prices amid losses with rising factory inventories, midstream traders destock continuously , while downstream purchasers insist on low-price procurement. The multi-dimensional market game has weakened overall trading liquidity. Costs form a solid bottom support for spot prices, while high factory inventories and sluggish off-season demand cap upward price momentum. Sustained market downturns may trigger further active production cuts on the supply side.

[Mideast Situation Remains Volatile and Uncertain, Aluminum Prices Consolidate and Adjust] Overall, the Middle East situation remains volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover. However, the destocking pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions and the trend of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, changes in LME aluminum ingot inventories, and the condition of downstream processing orders in China.

[SMM Analysis] In H1 2026, the core conflict in the LFP cathode material market was not just a simple shift in the supply-demand relationship, but rather a profound tussle involving the top-down transmission of cost pressure and the reshaping of the benefit distribution pattern across the industry chain.

Silica: This week, silica market prices remained largely stable. Supply side, some producing regions were affected by rainy weather, limiting the pace of mining and transportation and resulting in a slight tightening of local cargo supply. However, ample inventories accumulated earlier in the industry kept the overall supply base loose, and the short-term disruptions have yet to exert a notable impact on the broader market. Demand side, as the southwest rainy season continued to advance, silicon metal plants resumed production, driving a MoM increase in overall silicon plant operating rates. Consequently, restocking demand from silicon plants for raw material silica improved marginally, supporting a modest improvement in just-in-time procurement for silica. Nevertheless, sentiment for pushing for lower prices remained strong among silicon plant buyers, which prompted silica's upside room. Silicon Coal: This week, silicon coal market prices remained stable. Specifically, silicon granule coal in Gansu was quoted at 1,140 yuan/mt, and silicon mixed coal at 1,060 yuan/mt; silicon granule coal in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia was at 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was at 855 yuan/mt; and Xinjiang caking silicon coal was at 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, the silicon coal market exhibited a clear divergence pattern: driven by production resumptions at silicon metal enterprises during the southwest rainy season, some coal processing plants that produce based on sales slightly raised their operating rates, with production schedules adjusting in tandem with downstream just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, other plants that had experienced slowing shipments and accumulated high inventories focused primarily on destocking. Demand side, according to July production schedule statistics for silicon metal, silicon metal production increased MoM, and just-in-time procurement for silicon coal is therefore expected to edge up in tandem. Petroleum Coke: This week, trading performance in China's petroleum coke market was mediocre. Sentiment for low-sulphur petroleum coke improved, with prices recovering slightly; mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke saw sluggish downstream procurement, with prices consolidating lower. The overall market price center edged down slightly. Trading sentiment for Formosa Plastics petroleum coke was subdued, and port spot cargo offers were basically stable, with mainstream transaction prices holding at 1,300-1,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM monitoring, as of Thursday this week, the Shandong 4# petroleum coke price index was reported at 1,868.08 yuan/mt, down 2.14% WoW from last Thursday. Supply side, concentrated refinery maintenance in July was gradually winding down and resuming production, which, coupled with high port inventories, left the overall market supply relatively ample. Demand side, just-in-time procurement from the carbon used in aluminum production sector formed a bottom support, while purchasing enthusiasm from negative electrode material enterprises improved slightly. In the short term, market divergence across petroleum coke grades is expected to persist, with the overall market price center likely to drift lower. Electrode: This week, prices of electrode used in silicon production continued to operate at low levels. Demand side, production resumptions at silicon metal plants during the southwest rainy season continued to advance, with overall operating rates likely to rise further in July, prompting a modest recovery in raw material procurement by silicon plants. However, the silicon metal market remained in a downturn, with silicon plants exhibiting a strong desire to bargain down prices. Supply side, electrode producers faced inventory pressure while contending with intense competition for shipments. Such a supply-demand dynamic is insufficient to support prices. Therefore, in the short term, electrode used in silicon production still lacks upward driving momentum and is expected to continue its low-level operating trend. If you would like more detailed market information and trends, or have other information needs, please call 021-20707889.

SMM, July 9: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,075 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,095 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,850 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,060 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.04% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 165,200 lots and open interest was 227,700 lots, with a daily position drop of 4,248 lots. The price remained above the MA5 (22,960) and MA10 (22,822) but below the MA20 (23,332.75), MA40 (23,895.50), and MA60 (24,234.17). The short-term repair continued, but medium and long-term moving average pressure persisted on the upside. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-377.42) was above the DEA (-403.42), and a bar value of 52 was recorded. Short-term bearish momentum continued to narrow. Trading volume rose compared to the previous day, but the daily position drop of 4,248 lots showed continued capital outflow, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the futures. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress as discussions focused on fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to converge, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving the strait's resumption of navigation still uncertain. A hawkish shift by the US Fed boosted the US dollar index, weighing on base metals prices. Aluminum prices in and outside China fell amid macro headwinds. In the short term, bearish factors dominated and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,704 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,728 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,698 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,720 yuan/mt, up 11 yuan/mt or 0.41%. Trading volume was 187,400 lots and open interest was 349,400 lots, with a daily position increase of 3,177 lots. The price reclaimed the MA5 (2,715.20) but stayed below the MA10 (2,750.60), MA20 (2,820.55), MA40 (2,808.73), and MA60 (2,813.25). It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the overall weak pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-34.63) was below the DEA (-19.66), and a bar value of -29.94 was recorded. Bearish momentum persisted but narrowed at the margin. Trading volume edged up from the previous day, and the daily position increase of 3,177 lots showed some capital inflows. However, the rebound was limited, and nearby moving average resistance warrants close attention in the short term. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of this Thursday, China's total alumina inventory edged up WoW. By inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly. However, restocking willingness was weak amid sharp recent price swings and market divergence over the outlook, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries declined, mainly because some northern enterprises carried out periodic maintenance, prioritizing the drawdown of in-factory inventory under production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, as high port arrivals from outside China supplemented spot supply with imported resources and increased market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Before the implementation of Guinea's bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight inventory buildup, supply-demand conditions will stay loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]

SMM July 8: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,940 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 23,140 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,940 yuan/mt, and settled at 23,075 yuan/mt, up 155 yuan/mt or 0.68% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 148,400 lots, and open interest was 232,000 lots, with a daily change of -14,047 lots. The price stood above the 5-day MA (22,828) and 10-day MA (22,802.50), but remained below the 20-day MA (23,378.75), 40-day MA (23,943.13), and 60-day MA (24,261.75). The short-term recovery continued, but the medium and long-term weak trend has not been reversed. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-408.99) was slightly above DEA (-409.92), and the histogram recorded 1.86, indicating that bearish momentum clearly narrowed. Trading volume remained low, and the daily change in open interest of -14,047 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today's rise was still mainly driven by short-covering. SMM Comment: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions around fund returns and strait security, and nuclear consultations are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to converge. Although disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, the resumption of strait navigation still faced uncertainties. The US Fed's hawkish shift boosted the US dollar index, and base metal prices were pressured. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,701 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,725 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,692 yuan/mt, and settled at 2,716 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.37% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 174,800 lots, and open interest was 346,300 lots, with a daily change of -6,243 lots. The price remained below the 5-day MA (2,718), 10-day MA (2,760.80), 20-day MA (2,829.25), 40-day MA (2,810.70), and 60-day MA (2,814.22). All moving averages maintained a bearish alignment, and the weak futures pattern has not been repaired yet. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-33.35) was below DEA (-15.92), and the histogram recorded -34.86, indicating that bearish momentum still existed. Trading volume pulled back slightly, and the daily change in open interest of -6,243 lots showed some capital outflow. Today's rebound was more of a short-covering repair at low levels, with sustained upward momentum remaining insufficient. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total alumina inventory in China edged down WoW. By inventory structure, aluminum smelter raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to large price fluctuations recently and market divergence on the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mainly stood on the sidelines. In-factory alumina inventory fell, mainly affected by some enterprises in the north conducting scheduled maintenance, where production constraints led to priority consumption of in-factory inventory. It is expected that after maintenance ends next week, this impact will gradually fade. Port inventory continued to accumulate, with ex-China port arrivals remaining high. Imported resources supplemented spot supply and increased market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern has not changed. Before Guinea's bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks a clear bullish catalyst. It is expected that next week, inventory will shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, supply-demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have no connection with SMM.]

SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

H1 Price Review: In H1 2026, China’s grain-oriented silicon steel market fluctuated overall, with prices first suppressed and then rebounding. At the start of the year, market prices edged down, but as downstream demand gradually recovered, prices saw a rebound. Performance diverged notably by product type: competition intensified for regular grades amid mediocre demand, keeping prices generally weak; high-end high-permeability grades, supported by rigid demand from power infrastructure, remained firm throughout. On the supply side, regular grades were in ample supply and competition intensified, while high-end products, limited by technological barriers, saw constrained capacity deployment and persistently tight supply. The demand side showed pronounced structural divergence, with ongoing UHV construction and power grid upgrades sustaining solid rigid demand for high-end products, whereas demand for regular grades remained weak. H1 Fundamentals Review: From a production perspective, the production schedule of grain-oriented silicon steel in China in H1 2026 followed a trend of rising, then falling, and then rising again. Only the January-February production schedule volume exceeded the level in the same period of 2025, while the schedule from March to June all fell short of the year-earlier level. In March, it dropped to the H1 low of about 171,000 mt, and in May-June, it recovered to around 183,000 mt as production arrangements were stepped up. However, the overall production schedule center was lower than in H1 2025, and Q2 saw a marked contraction in production activity. Over the same period, the capacity utilization rate trend was highly synchronized with the production schedule. In January-February, the utilization rate was slightly higher than last year, then declined continuously from March to April, hitting the H1 low of 74% in April, and rebounded to 76% in May-June as the schedule recovered. For each month of H1, the utilization rate was significantly lower than the same period in 2025, with the full-year range kept at 74%-81%. This diverging pattern—"slight strength at the start of the year and simultaneous weakening of production schedule and utilization rate in Q2"—indicates that downstream demand support in H1 was weaker than in 2025. Enterprises proactively lowered their Q2 production plans, and the pace of capacity commissioning slowed down. Even with moderate supplementary production in May and June, overall actual operating loads remained weaker than in the same period last year. From the perspective of grain-oriented silicon steel consumption driven by power grid installations, overall demand in H1 2026 (January-April) showed a gradual weakening trend, with monthly consumption declining step by step. January marked the H1 demand peak, with total consumption of approximately 150,000 mt, supported simultaneously by PV, thermal power, and wind power. In February, total demand pulled back slightly, with consumption contracting across all sub-sectors. March fell to the H1 trough, as total monthly consumption was under 80,000 mt, and PV and thermal power installation releases slowed markedly. April saw a slight recovery in demand, but the overall volume remained low. In terms of demand structure, solar, wind, and thermal power remained the core consumption sources in H1, together accounting for nearly 80% of consumption, with nuclear power providing a small supplement and hydropower contribution consistently low. In January, thermal power and PV provided strong boosts, while wind power, which saw concentrated year-end commissioning, had limited release in H1. PV, the largest demand segment, saw continuously declining consumption from January to April, becoming the primary factor dragging down H1 demand. Compared with the full year, overall installation demand in H1 (January-April) was far below the two peak season highs of last May and December. The release pace of new installations was weak, with insufficient commissioning increments across all power sources. Overall, the end-use demand for grain-oriented silicon steel exhibited market characteristics of underperforming in the peak season and coming under monthly pressure. H2 Outlook: In H1 2026, only the Phase II 80,000 mt HIB grade grain-oriented silicon steel capacity of Angang Longdu Electromagnetic New Materials in central China came on stream in Q2, with limited new capacity additions in H1. H2 will mark a concentrated period for GO silicon steel capacity commissioning, with enterprises across multiple regions gradually starting up capacity: in east China, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd.'s 220,000 mt HIB grade GO silicon steel capacity will simultaneously commence production in H2, Zhejiang Jinlei Soft Magnetic Materials will start up 100,000 mt CGO grade GO silicon steel capacity in Q3, and Jiangsu Zhongsheng Electromagnetic Technology (180,000 mt HIB) and Jiangxi Chongxin New Materials (80,000 mt HIB) both plan to start production in Q4; in central China, Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to launch its 200,000 mt HIB grade GO silicon steel capacity in Q3. Looking ahead to H2, market divergence will persist. The industry’s capacity structure continues to optimize, with new capacity focusing on high-end categories. Supported by energy efficiency upgrade policies and power infrastructure projects, rigid industry demand is expected to be steadily released. Overall, ordinary grades still face downward price pressure, while high-end, high magnetic induction grain-oriented silicon steel will maintain a stable to positive trend backed by favorable demand.

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►