June 22, 2026 The price of gold is under noticeable pressure following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent interest rate meeting. Although the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a possible rate hike by the end of the year. This hawkish stance and the clear focus on price stability are driving bond yields higher, which increases the opportunity cost of the interest-free precious metal. As a result, market expectations have grown that the key support level of $4,000 per ounce will be tested in the near future. Weak Gold Price: Société Générale Makes Massive Increase While many market participants are reacting nervously to this development, Société Générale views the current pullback as an attractive buying opportunity. The major French bank is significantly increasing the gold allocation in its multi-asset portfolio for the third quarter from 7 to 10 percent. Accompanied by a broader increase in industrial metals and energy, the bank’s total commodity exposure climbs to a historic record of 20 percent. The strategists are already forecasting a noticeable recovery for the fourth quarter and expect the precious metal to reach the $5,000 mark by the second quarter of 2027. Why Structural Risks Support the Gold Price in the Long Term The bank’s confidence stems primarily from doubts about the continued stringency of U.S. monetary policy . The experts assume that the Fed will ultimately not implement the interest rate hikes it has signaled. Instead, the central bank could adapt to an environment of higher growth and persistent inflation. However, should central banks actually fall behind in the fight against inflation, a robust hedge against inflation—such as gold—will become indispensable. Furthermore, analysts note that international central banks are likely to continue acting as active buyers in the wake of global de-dollarization, offsetting any potential reluctance on the part of private investors. In light of spiraling government debt and increasing geopolitical fragmentation, Société Générale is fully committed to real assets. Consequently, the bank is no longer holding any liquidity in the current quarter but is instead investing more heavily in stocks and inflation-protected bonds in parallel with its gold buildup. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/socgen-goes-all-in-gold-back-at-usd5-000-by-the-end-of-the-year

[Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Prices Weaken in Tandem as Geopolitical Easing Puts Overall Pressure on Aluminum] The US Fed's dot plot released a hawkish pivot, turning the global macro front bearish. Recent oil price declines have also indirectly supported a stronger US dollar, exerting downward pressure on aluminum prices. In China, destocking continues to accelerate, but absolute inventory remains at elevated levels. With no new macro bullish catalysts, SHFE aluminum followed LME aluminum under pressure. It is expected that aluminum prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Overnight Cast Aluminum Prices Fell Back Significantly, While Tightened Aluminum Scrap Supply Supports Spot Prices] On Tuesday, the ADC12 market maintained a steady overall trend, with SMM ADC12 price unchanged from the previous trading day at 24,100 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt yesterday, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract hovered around 8,500 yuan/mt. Silicon metal prices continued to move sideways in a narrow range. In recent days, the market has seen no new news disruptions, leading to a stalemate in price changes. Increasing supply put prices under pressure in the short term. Wafer: Market prices for 18X wafers were 0.86-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers were 0.96-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers were 1.16-1.2 yuan/piece. Smaller factories have already begun to see transactions at lower prices. 18X wafers are under the most severe pressure, and the high end of the overall price range is trending further downward.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a four-session losing streak, with the daily candlestick's center moving lower and the MACD bearish candlestick expanding. Pressured by macro rate hike expectations, the center of SHFE zinc shifted downward overnight. However, with the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio remaining weak, the zinc ingot export window is about to open. Monitor...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Different Risk Factors in and Outside China; Beware of Import Expectations amid Lead Prices with Overseas Market Underperforming Domestic Market] Recently, the U.S.-Iran peace talks have seen new progress, and Middle East shipping restrictions are about to be lifted. The nonferrous metal supply chain will be restored. Under expectations of recovery in shipping and energy supply, nonferrous metals generally weakened. However, in the lead market, domestic lead smelters are undergoing both maintenance and resumptions...

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,433/mt, and after opening, it fluctuated downward and fell to a low of $13,363/mt. The price did not return to the opening level during the session, and finally closed at $13,373.5/mt, with a decline of 2.18%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest reached 251,000 lots, a decrease of 489 lots compared to the previous trading session, reflecting bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt. In early trading, it slightly rose to 103,350 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward and fell to a low of 102,820 yuan/mt, finally closing at 102,990 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.57%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots, and open interest reached 152,000 lots, an increase of 3,887 lots from the previous trading session, reflecting bears adding positions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Center Shifts Downward Under Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a large bearish candlestick, the lower Bollinger Bands provided support. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes increased, non-ferrous metals and global stock markets fell, the US dollar remained firm...

[SMM Tin Morning Flash: US Fed Hawkish Stance and AI Bubble Concerns Push SHFE Tin to 390,000 Mark]

SMM June 24 News: On the metals market front: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE tin dropped 4.59%, SHFE copper fell 1.13%, SHFE zinc declined 1.59%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.47%, and SHFE nickel slid 2.21%. SHFE lead edged up 0.06%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.68%, rebar edged up 0.19%, hot-rolled coil gained 0.18%, while stainless steel fell 1.41%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract declined 0.56%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.38%. On the overseas metals market front, LME base metals fell across the board overnight. LME copper dropped 2.18%, LME aluminum fell 2.99%, LME lead declined 1.04%, LME zinc lost 2.79%, LME tin plunged 4.1%, and LME nickel slid 2.71%. Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.75%, and COMEX silver dropped 6.03%. SHFE gold declined 0.82%, and SHFE silver lost 4.36%. As of 7:16 on June 24, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments on issuing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket. The notice mentioned regulating and orderly developing car modification. Establish and improve car modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the car modification market, clarify the implementation of graded and classified management for car modification, define the list of car modification items, and improve management requirements such as vehicle inspection and registration changes. Improve the car modification standard system. Study the establishment of a national automotive standardization technical committee car modification sub-technical committee, sort out the list of standards to be developed and revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop car modification parts and technical specifications. The notice proposed supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improve the RV traffic and usage environment. Support local governments in optimizing RV on-road traffic management policies. Simplify the approval process for RV campsite land use. Enhance the level of supporting services at RV campsites. In combination with regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a batch of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites along scenic byways, suburban areas, and other regions, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and supply, hydropower support, medical rescue, and catering and accommodation. Optimize the setting of RV campsite signage and publish premium RV tour routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, if conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for self-propelled and towable RVs can be set up and managed better to meet RV parking needs. [Ministry of Commerce: As of June 22, the consumer trade-in program has cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan] Yang Mu, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumer Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on June 23 that as of June 22 this year, the consumer trade-in program had cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan, benefiting 630 million person-times. Among them, car trade-in sales accounted for 63%, playing a positive role in benefiting people's livelihoods, expanding consumption, optimizing industries, and promoting circulation. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shenzhen: Emphasize systematic layout and flexible supply to build a good computing network, and strengthen computing capacity supply] On June 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee held a special meeting to deeply implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, carry out the work requirements of the provincial party committee and provincial government, seize opportunities, and promote the planning and construction of the city's "Six Networks" with high quality and efficiency. Jin Lei, Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Qin Weizhong, Deputy Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, made work arrangements. Lin Jie, Chairperson of the Municipal Committee of the CPPCC, attended. The meeting emphasized focusing on key points and targeted efforts to improve the level and quality of the planning and construction of the "Six Networks". It highlighted the need for intensive, efficient, safe, and reliable construction of a modern water network, with a complete and systematic water resource allocation and supply guarantee network, a solid and resilient "flood-tide" risk protection network, and a happy and beautiful green ecological network. It stressed the need for expansion, quality improvement, intelligence, and flexibility in building a new-type power grid, continuously strengthening channel layout optimization, network construction, and digital and intelligent transformation of the power grid to create a stronger, greener, and more intelligent new-type power grid. It emphasized systematic layout and flexible supply to build a computing network, enhance computing capacity supply, deepen computing interconnectivity, and pay more attention to computing-power coordination. It highlighted high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated, and empowering construction of a new-generation communication network, accelerating the construction of national-level internet backbone direct connection points, 6G technology R&D and commercial deployment, "dual-gigabit" network popularization, and satellite network applications. It stressed collaborative linkage, safety, and resilience in building urban underground pipeline networks, adhering to the principles of being practical, pragmatic, and effective, strengthening planning coordination, accelerating old network renovation, enhancing digital empowerment, and constructing underground utility tunnels according to local conditions. It emphasized internal and external accessibility and efficient circulation to build a logistics network, targeting broader connectivity, stronger facilities, higher value, and newer scenarios to further optimize functional layout and coordinate the construction of a modern logistics network system. (Published by Shenzhen) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 101.37. The greenback touched its highest level since last November on Tuesday, as traders cemented their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The Fed's policy outlook contrasts with other global central banks. Traders now anticipate nearly two 25-basis-point rate hikes by early 2027. Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho International, said: "The dollar has upside room, and it tends to strengthen before Fed rate hikes; the market is currently debating that the rate-hike cycle could start in September." (JINSHI Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.4%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.8%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.6%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 19.6%. On June 23, S&P Global released data showing that the US June flash composite PMI rose to 52.2, above the previous 51.5 and the market expectation of 52.1, hitting a five-month high , indicating that US business activity continued to expand. By sector, manufacturing stood out particularly. The growth rate of new orders hit the fastest pace in more than four years, driving a clear pickup in factory production activities. The US June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, above the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1 . Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained its expansion momentum, with the June flash services PMI rising to 51.3, a four-month high, above the forecast 51.1 and the previous 50.7 . At the same time, expectations of easing cost pressures due to the relaxation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also indicated that problems such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, suggesting that the economic recovery remains on shaky ground. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On other currencies: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that the agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict and allow crude oil to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz is a welcome development for the global economy. Macklem briefly mentioned this during a speech themed on global imbalances, saying, "Global energy prices have started to decline, though many issues remain to be resolved." Driven by rising gasoline prices, Canada's inflation rate accelerated to its highest level since 2023 in May. Economists believe that an immediate drop in energy prices should lead to softer headline inflation, which, given core CPI appears under control, will provide further reassurance for the Bank of Canada. (JINSHI Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, Switzerland's June ZEW Investor Confidence Index, the US Q1 current account, and US May new home sales annualized. Additionally, attention should be paid to the release of the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's June monetary policy meeting, and the MWC Shanghai 2026 event running through June 26. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI dropping 1.1% and Brent declining 1.02%. The market is closely watching crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that the US is "committed to reaching a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that just the day before (June 22), 19 million barrels of oil had been transported through the strait. Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and that current work is progressing smoothly. (CCTV) On the data front: For the week ending June 19, US API crude oil inventory fell by 765,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of 4.995 million barrels and the prior week's drop of 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.238 million barrels, against expectations for a 350,000-barrel decline and the prior week's increase of 2.479 million barrels. (JINSHI Data APP) Furthermore, Russia's gasoline shortage is worsening after Ukraine's continued drone attacks on refineries, with at least two-thirds of the country's regions having implemented fuel rationing or experiencing supply disruptions. From areas bordering Ukraine to the Amur Oblast in the Far East, local governors are forced to restrict fuel sales at gas stations almost daily and attempt to curb panic buying. The extent of supply disruptions varies by region, but the situation is overall deteriorating, and could worsen if drone attacks increase further. (JINSHI Data APP)