[SMM Steel] The US Department of Commerce finalized its antidumping administrative review on corrosion-resistant steel products from Taiwan covering July 2023-June 2024. Sheng Yu Steel and Prosperity Tieh Enterprise received final dumping margins of 0.00%, while Great Grandeul Steel Company Limited (Samoa) was assigned a weighted-average dumping margin of 0.99%. The USDOC maintained nearly all calculations from the preliminary findings, with only a minor spelling correction made to Prosperity’s corporate name.

Indonesia has done this before. A commodity export ban, a rush of downstream investment, processing capacity built faster than the upstream can honestly support, and a market that eventually corrects in the most painful way possible. The nickel sector wrote that playbook. The bauxite sector is now following it, page by page, with one additional complication that makes the stakes materially higher.

This week's stainless steel futures market reflected a classic divergence: external macro headwinds drove paper weakness, while domestic spot fundamentals held firm. We break down what drove the disconnect and what to watch next.

This week, ferrous metals continued to pull back, with coking coal and coke seeing the most notable correction. In the first half of the week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, proposing that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking should be no less than 1.5:1. The further tightening of capacity replacement requirements had a longer-term impact. Meanwhile, macro markets outside China experienced significant fluctuations, and market expectations for ex-China "interest rate hikes" strengthened. In the second half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing production increased somewhat while inventory continued to decline. Spot market side, traders began to show some flexibility on prices, the spot-futures price spread for hot-rolled coil continued to narrow, some spot-futures arbitrage traders mainly cut losses with shipments, and end-users continued to restock on an as-needed basis...

This week (May 15, 2026 – May 21, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 66.45%, up 1.45 percentage points WoW. This week, smelter production in Yunnan remained stable, with the overall operating rate basically flat WoW. In Hunan, a mid-sized smelter completed short-term equipment maintenance, and production resumed to normal this week, leading to a slight rebound in the regional operating rate. In Henan, normal production fluctuations at a small smelter drove a marginal increase in the regional operating rate. Smelting production in other regions remained generally stable this week.

[SMM Analysis] Raw Material Prices See Slight Correction, Stainless Steel Mill Profits Expand This week, both stainless steel production costs and prices pulled back slightly, and steel mill profits expanded accordingly. Using 304 cold-rolled as the calculation benchmark, the current raw material-based profit margin was 2.19%, while the low-level inventory raw material-based profit margin reached 3.67%. Overall industry profitability was moderate, and steel mills therefore maintained high production schedules. On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices first declined then rose this week, showing an overall slight pullback. During the week, news emerged that Indonesia planned to unify ferroalloy exports under state-owned enterprise operations. Although stainless steel scrap still held a notable cost-effectiveness advantage and steel mills had a strong desire to bargain down prices, supply uncertainty fueled a strong market sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and prices ultimately stopped falling and stabilized. As of this Friday, mainstream high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 4.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,140.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, prices pulled back this week. The decline was driven by the combined impact of multiple bearish factors, including weak spot cargo performance in finished products, steel mills pushing for lower raw material prices, and downward adjustments in molten steel quotes. However, the decline was limited for the following reasons: the tight tax invoice situation was expected to ease, trading pain points were being gradually resolved, and steel mill purchase expectations rose accordingly. In addition, steel scrap held a greater cost-effectiveness advantage over NPI, and coupled with steel mills still being profitable and rigid demand remaining robust, prices were effectively supported. The overall pattern showed "weakening spot cargo, cost support, and recovering expectations," and short-term prices were expected to fluctuate in tandem with finished products, with limited downside room. As of this Friday, mainstream 30 in the Shanghai area...

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review] Bearish Factors Converge to Weaken Stainless Steel Scrap, Cost Advantages Hold Price Floor This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,400-10,500 yuan/mt. Off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan weakened, with a price range of 10,150-10,450 yuan/mt. From a raw material production cost analysis, the cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was approximately 14,580.48 yuan/mt, while the cost of production entirely using high-grade NPI reached 15,125.2 yuan/mt. Stainless steel scrap prices fell and pulled back this week. The stainless steel finished product spot market was overall in the doldrums, with spot prices continuously under pressure. Meanwhile, steel mills continued to push for lower prices on the alternative raw material high-grade NPI, creating an overall bearish atmosphere on the raw material side. Combined with major steel mills lowering their molten steel quotations during the week, multiple bearish factors converged to drive stainless steel scrap prices further down. The supporting factors cushioning the decline in stainless steel scrap were clearly visible: positive news emerged in the market this week that issues related to reverse invoicing and tight tax invoices might be eased, with industry transaction pain points expected to be alleviated. Steel mills' purchase demand for stainless steel scrap is expected to increase going forward. At the same time, stainless steel scrap continued to maintain favorable cost advantages over high-grade NPI. Coupled with the fact that steel mills still had profit margins on the production side, production and procurement enthusiasm was sustained, and overall rigid demand remained robust, continuously providing floor support for stainless steel scrap prices. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week exhibited a pattern of "weakening spot prices, cost-supported floor, and expectations of recovery...

Early this week, rising US inflation data combined with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept international oil prices high. Market bets on rate hikes within the year intensified, US Treasury yields climbed and pushed the US dollar stronger, and copper prices pulled back under pressure. Subsequently, Trump paused military action against Iran, the US dollar index weakened, and copper prices staged a recovery. However, prospects for US-Iran negotiations remained uncertain, with Iran insisting on its core demands and disputes over Strait of Hormuz transit fees persisting, keeping the market in a wait-and-see mode regarding negotiation outcomes. By mid-week, Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran were entering the final stage, and some oil tankers departed the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical risks at the margin. The rebound in risk appetite drove copper prices higher. Overall, the macro theme this week remained inflation and interest rate pressures capping upside room for copper prices, while fluctuating US-Iran negotiation expectations and geopolitical disruptions drove futures to fluctuate at highs. Fundamentals side, supply remained tight overall this week. Early in the week, arrivals of imported and domestic cargoes edged up slightly, marginally easing the tight supply situation. However, as smelters entered concentrated maintenance periods, domestic cargo arrivals shrank and imported cargo arrivals remained limited, tightening spot circulation again, with high-quality copper sources particularly scarce. Demand side, downstream procurement sentiment recovered somewhat during the copper price pullback phase, with actual transactions improving at the margin. However, as copper prices returned to highs, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified, with most maintaining just-in-time procurement, and overall market trading activity remained subdued. Inventory side, as of Thursday May 21, inventory edged up 500 mt WoW from Thursday to 243,800 mt, with overall inventory changes limited. In summary, current fundamentals present a pattern where tight supply supports prices while weak demand limits upside elasticity. Looking ahead to next week, macro logic is expected to continue revolving around US-Iran negotiations, Strait of Hormuz transit, and fluctuating US Fed policy expectations. If US-Iran negotiations continue to progress, easing geopolitical risks may support copper prices, while oil prices and inflation expectations will continue to disturb the market, and a stronger US dollar and US Treasury yields will also cap upside room for copper prices. Fundamentals side, smelter maintenance and tight spot circulation will continue to support the price floor, but demand is unlikely to see significant volume expansion under high copper prices. Copper prices are expected to move sideways in the near term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $13,300-13,750/mt, and SHFE copper between 103,000-105,800 yuan/mt. Spot side, against the backdrop of coexisting tight supply and weak demand, premiums are expected to remain firm with fluctuations, and actual transactions will still depend on downstream restocking willingness after copper prices pull back. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coke enterprises maintained stable coke production, with relatively smooth shipments and their own coke inventory remaining at low levels. Demand side, steel mill operating rates stayed high, and daily average hot metal output is still expected to increase going forward. Rigid demand for coke showed an increasing trend. However, recent continuous declines in ferrous futures, narrowing steel profitability, and the steel market already being in the consumption off-season suppressed coke demand. Meanwhile, most steel mills' coke inventory was at reasonable levels, leading to low willingness to accept coke price hikes. In summary, the standoff between steel and coke enterprises will continue, and the coke market may remain temporarily stable next week.

SMM News, May 21： Since mid-March, China's tungsten market has ended a year-long sharp rally and entered a high-level correction phase with prices trending steadily lower. Market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with periodic supply-demand adjustments and fading market mood becoming core drivers of price movements.