[7.13 Morning Meeting Summary] The Ukrainian military destroyed 12 Russian oil tankers and one oil terminal. It is reported that Putin rejected calls for peace talks, and the situation may escalate in the coming months. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract consolidated at highs in the morning session, closing at 128,370 yuan/mt by the end of the morning session, up 1.10%. Macro sentiment has improved, and nickel prices have rebounded recently. The price range for nickel is expected to remain at 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt in the near future.

The SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price fell WoW by 1.2 yuan/nickel unit to 1,132.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the Indonesian NPI FOB index average price dropped WoW by $0.46/nickel unit to $146.23/nickel unit. Spot high-grade NPI remained on a downward trajectory this week, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifying further. Transactions stayed sluggish all week, and price divergences between upstream and downstream widened gradually.

[SMM Nickel Flash] July 3 – According to SMM, the price spread between different NPI grades has been restored currently. With the continued decline in nickel prices, the cost-effectiveness disadvantage of high-grade NPI material has become prominent, steel mills' procurement preferences have shifted, and the acceptance of high-nickel-unit material has continued to decline, leading to a narrowing of the price spread between high- and low-grade materials.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On June 29, the SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor stood at 2.09, down 0.03 MoM. The high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.4, down 0.04 MoM, and the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor came in at 1.77, down 0.02 MoM. That day, the NPI market exhibited a divergent pattern: suppliers held prices firm with high offers, downstream buyers pushed for significantly lower prices, and low-grade NPI cargoes traded at deep discounts. Tight circulation of port spot cargoes supported suppliers' quotes, but alternative raw materials continued to divert rigid demand, resulting in intense bargaining.

[SMM Daily Review: Steel Scrap and Refined Nickel Have Cost-Effectiveness Advantage; Ferronickel Purchasing Demand Weak] On June 29, SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.4, down 0.04 MoM, and high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.77, down 0.02 MoM.

[SMM Daily Review: Tightening Resource Supply, Nickel Iron Market Still Has Upside Room] On June 17, the upstream sentiment factor for SMM high-grade NPI stood at 2.77, up 0.02 DoD, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.9, up 0.03 DoD.

After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

The Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) market looks firm on the surface — but dig one layer deeper and two very different realities emerge for high-grade and low-grade material.

[SMM Nickel Flash] Supply side, the center of upstream offers continued to decline, with some traders continuously lowering their intended prices. Demand side, the market remained relatively sluggish, and the price spread between high- and low-grade NPI continued to widen. Overall, consumption was relatively weak, and high-grade NPI prices maintained a slight downward trend.

[SMM Daily Comment: Weak End-User Demand Weighed on Prices, High-Grade NPI Continued to Drop Slightly] April 8 — The SMM high-grade NPI upstream sentiment index stood at 2.74, up 0.02 MoM, while the high-grade NPI downstream sentiment index stood at 1.49, flat MoM.