To better track rare earth price swings and support long‑term contract settlements, SMM launched “Evening Prices” (since April 27, 2026) for Pr‑Nd and gadolinium, available via data terminal and Renrenkan. As afternoon transaction peaks have shifted due to volatility (e.g., Pr‑Nd alloy: 1.09M to 830k yuan/mt in H1 2026), evening prices reflect actual afternoon trades, benefiting metal‑magnet contracts. For magnet‑end‑user annual contracts, morning prices are recommended.

SMM June 1 News: Dealers in Jiangxi reported that end-use consumption in the automotive storage battery market was poor, making it difficult to boost battery sales. Current battery inventory stood at approximately one and a half months. Prices of certain battery models declined recently, with the main model 6-QW-60Ah priced at 220-240 yuan/unit. Manufacturers in Anhui reported that replacement demand in the automotive storage battery market was sluggish, with dealers only purchasing as needed. To avoid inventory buildup, factory production line operating rates remained below 80%, and raw material lead was primarily procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Guangdong reported that the automotive storage battery market was in the off-season. Additionally, due to the price spread between domestic and overseas markets for lead, battery exports lacked a competitive edge, and battery orders remained persistently weak, with current factory operating rates at 70-80%.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Supply Recovery VS Tight Raw Materials, Lead Prices May Continue to Consolidate] The U.S.-Iran ceasefire and peace talks continued to advance, but considerable uncertainties remained, and risk-averse sentiment was strong in the market. Production at China's primary lead and secondary lead smelters was gradually recovering...

[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Limited Inquiries and Sluggish Transactions, Chrome Market in the Doldrums] June 1, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

Around May 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain-related products in April were released in a concentrated manner. Data showed that China's spodumene imports in April reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY. Lithium carbonate imports, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY.......SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials, as detailed below: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In April 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY, equivalent to approximately 63,000 mt of LCE. Customs data showed that April spodumene imports pulled back MoM from March, reaching 758,000 mt in physical content. By source country, Australian ore port arrivals returned to a relatively normal level, with over 350,000 mt arriving this month, up 38.9% MoM; Zimbabwe's earlier shipments arrived at port this month at 102,000 mt, down 9.2% MoM; South Africa and Nigeria saw some contraction in monthly port arrivals, while ore from Mali had almost no notable port arrivals this month due to shipping schedule impacts. Notably, spodumene powder sold by Brazil in early 2026 arrived at port this month, driving a significant increase in port arrivals from this country. Additionally, after SMM screening, the month's incoming ore was equivalent to 63,000 mt of LCE. Among the incoming ore, lithium concentrates accounted for 67%, edging down MoM, mainly because apart from Australia , ore from other source countries contained some relatively low-grade ore. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing, according to SMM spot pricing, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices fluctuated upward in April. As of April 30, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices rose to $2,540/mt, up $221/mt from the month-end price of $2,313/mt in March, a gain of 9.81%. According to SMM, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise in April, and spodumene concentrates prices rose in tandem with salt prices, with gains exceeding those of lithium carbonate itself, causing non-integrated enterprises that purchase externally spodumene concentrates to suffer losses, with spot profitability remaining in deficit. In April, spot circulation of lepidolite concentrates relatively eased. Meanwhile, as lithium carbonate prices rose, processing fees for non-integrated enterprises also increased accordingly, preserving a certain profit margin for their processing operations and enabling these enterprises to achieve spot profitability. However, recently, spodumene concentrates prices adjusted in tandem with lithium carbonate price fluctuations, and the price center shifted downward. According to SMM's latest findings, disrupted by rumors of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines this week, lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined, further dragging down the overall price center. Currently, lithium mines showed a weak willingness to make shipments, and transactions were mostly concentrated between traders and buyers. Port lithium ore inventory continued to decline. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the potential tight lithium ore supply triggered by high operating rates in the lithium chemicals industry. Lithium ore prices were expected to continue to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY. Of this, 21,000 mt was imported from Chile (65% of total imports), 9,555 mt from Argentina (29%), and 1,100 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY cumulatively. In April, China exported 370 mt of lithium carbonate, down 17% MoM and down 50% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,886 mt, up 7% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 17,942 mt of lithium sulfate, up 9% MoM and up 296% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium sulfate imports reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, spot lithium carbonate prices generally trended upward in April. As of April 30, the spot lithium carbonate price rose to 177,000 yuan/mt, up 14,000 yuan/mt from 163,000 yuan/mt on March 31, a gain of 8.59%. According to SMM analysis, China's lithium carbonate prices followed a "V-shaped" trend in April, first declining then rising, with the monthly average price up 6% MoM. In the first ten days, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East intensified global risk-averse sentiment, causing non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate downward. In the mid-to-late period, driven by Zimbabwe's export ban, Jiangxi mine license renewals, and rising costs, prices began to rebound and fluctuate upward, with the price center shifting notably higher by month-end. Upstream and downstream purchasing remained stagnant, with the psychological price spread widening week by week. Upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, maintaining high offer prices, while downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement only, with psychological price levels concentrated at 155,000-175,000 yuan/mt, restocking on dips only when prices fell rapidly. In April, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped to around 155,500 yuan/mt in the first ten days, then rallied all the way to 177,000 yuan/mt by month-end. As of May 29, domestic spot battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 174,000-181,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 177,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in April 2026, China imported 6,689 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 9% MoM and up four times YoY. Of this, 2,252 mt were imported from South Korea, accounting for 34% of total imports; 1,706 mt came from Indonesia, accounting for approximately 25% of imports; and the remaining 40% came from Australia and Chile. In April, China exported 5,535 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 76% MoM and up 31% YoY, of which 3,915 mt were exported to South Korea and 864 mt to Japan. Continued sluggish ternary cathode material output outside China limited the absorption capacity for lithium hydroxide in markets outside China, resulting in a slight surplus in markets outside China, which in turn widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Meanwhile, as suppliers outside China had previously signed long-term supply agreements with domestic traders, they were able to continuously dump lithium hydroxide into the Chinese market. Under the combined effect of these factors, the trade pattern of lithium hydroxide continued to reverse (shifting from net exports to net imports). Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in April 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM, while cumulative imports were approximately 96 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in April 2026 were approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM from March and down approximately 33.2% YoY. Specifically, as the LiPF6 export VAT rebate policy was officially abolished starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in advance in March, and electrolyte enterprises outside China built up certain inventory, leading to MoM declines in China's exports to multiple major destination countries in April. Exports to Poland were 337.5 mt (down approximately 80.4% MoM), South Korea 81.804 mt (down approximately 92.56% MoM), Czech Republic 150 mt (down approximately 67.43% MoM), and the US 101.908 mt (down approximately 61.7% MoM). Only exports to Japan increased — 191.37 mt (up approximately 50.77% MoM). Artificial Graphite In April 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 757 mt, up 12.4% MoM and down 32.9% YoY. Average import price side, in April 2026, the average import price of artificial graphite in China was 75,941 yuan/mt, up 23.1% MoM and up 14.6% YoY. In April 2026, China's artificial graphite exports totaled 45,895 mt, up 22.3% MoM but down 21% YoY. In terms of average export price, in April 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,214 yuan/mt, down 6.6% MoM but up 0.26% YoY. Exports from the top five exporting provinces rose 21% MoM from the previous month, with two provinces seeing export volume increases of over 35% MoM, and another province recording a 20% MoM increase. Import market, orders from downstream power battery enterprises in China gradually recovered in April. Combined with the phased tightness in spot capacity of leading anode enterprises, restocking demand was released, boosting artificial graphite imports to rebound from weakness on a MoM basis. However, import volumes remained down YoY, primarily because China's anode industry had ample overall capacity with supply still in surplus, domestic self-sufficiency continued to strengthen, and the industry's reliance on imported raw materials and finished products steadily declined. Flake Graphite In April 2026, China's flake graphite imports totaled 3,178 mt, down 19% MoM and down 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In April 2026, China's flake graphite exports totaled 4,093 mt, down 50% MoM and down 54% YoY. Export market, the flake graphite export tax rebate policy was officially canceled this month, directly squeezing profit margins for foreign trade enterprises and significantly dampening overall export willingness. Meanwhile, the approval pace for flake graphite export licenses slowed down, hindering foreign trade shipments processes. Coupled with weak ex-China end-use demand, multiple bearish factors combined to directly drive a sharp decline in industry export volumes. The import market also continued to weaken. Goods originally intended for exports shifted to domestic sales circulation, with increasingly abundant local supply sources in China. Market enthusiasm for import procurement was insufficient, ultimately causing imports to decline in tandem this month. Phosphate Ore On May 20, 2026, according to customs data, China's phosphate ore imports totaled 207,000 mt in April 2026. April imports rose 13.5% from 182,000 mt in March. Total import value in April was $19.741 million, up 35.7% MoM from $14.552 million in March. The average unit price was $95.5/mt, up 19.6% from $79.9/mt in March. Import commentary: In May, Egypt's phosphate ore exports faced "policy tightening and weakening demand."On May 13, Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced that it would no longer sign any new phosphate ore export contracts. Previously, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly stated clearly at a meeting on May 10 that the government was pushing for a transition from raw material exports to the manufacturing of high-value-added products such as phosphate fertiliser. Already signed long-term contracts would not be affected. This is expected to push up import prices and may affect imports. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In April 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY. Among them, imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. In April 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $17,187/mt in physical content, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed the Q4 2025 quota approvals, but the Q1 2026 quota approvals slowed down again due to sampling, detection and other procedural issues. In addition, transportation capacity in the DRC was tight. Fleets, driven by economic considerations, prioritised the transport of oil products and chemicals that were in production shortage, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt among non-ferrous metals came last, meaning cobalt faced significant transportation capacity issues. Constrained by the above factors, miners mainly focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet arranged concentrated vessel bookings, and the arrival of large batches of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed. Unwrought Cobalt In April 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. In April, refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import prices, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totalled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt in the US pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was already sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting their destinations from the US back to China. Average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY.

Today, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price continued to rise from the previous working day. Futures side, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened high at 181,000 yuan/mt today, quickly dipped to the intraday low of 178,000 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded with fluctuations, hitting highs of 182,100 yuan/mt multiple times during the morning session; around midday, it accelerated downward, breaking below the 180,000 yuan/mt average price line; in the afternoon session, it hovered at lows and struggled to rebound, weakening again toward the close, ultimately settling down 0.71% at 178,900 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 5,887 lots. Spot market, at the beginning of the month, downstream customer-supplied and long-term contract cargoes arrived at plants successively. Combined with remaining volumes from prior spot order restocking, and with the market still watching this month's pricing tone, spot order purchase willingness was weak today, with inquiries and transactions overall sluggish. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm, with spot order shipments still mostly concentrated among producers that had previously hedged, and their reluctance to sell remained unchanged. News side, supply-side disruptions continued. The DRC recently approved a decree classifying lithium as a strategic mineral, raising the royalty rate from 3.5% to 10%. However, given that the country's current lithium production is nearly zero and the Manono project is expected to commence production in H2, the policy's actual impact on immediate supply is limited, and it is more reflected in elevated medium and long-term cost expectations. In comparison, the continuation of Zimbabwe's lithium ore export controls, the uncertainty over the pace of production resumptions at Yichun lepidolite mines, and the support from continuously rising lithium concentrates prices on smelting costs remain more direct variables affecting current market sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

In May, European APT prices held firm above $3,000/mtu amid tight supply, while scrap tungsten dropped sharply. China's tungsten prices rebounded late in the month as sentiment improved, though downstream demand remained soft. A cautious bottoming trend emerged.

[Tungsten News Flash] SMM June 1: At the start of the week, the tungsten market mainly fluctuated upward. Upstream suppliers were bullish with firm offers. Downstream powder and cemented carbide plants actively inquired for restocking, and market transactions were active. Mainstream downstream enterprises actively picked up goods under long-term contract supply. In addition, enterprises supplemented with spot order procurement, and overall procurement volume increased notably. SMM 65% wolframite concentrates closed at 434,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) today, up 8,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) WoW Friday, with some transactions based on premiums over the online price. SMM APT closed at 685,000 yuan/mt today, with smelters mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach and suspending offers.

SMM, May 29: Spot prices of cobalt products overall fluctuated downward this week. The cobalt intermediate products market continued to receive some support from the slow quota approval process and tight logistics capacity in the DRC. However, the mediocre performance of demand in the overall cobalt market continued to weigh on the market. Can cobalt salt prices find support going forward? Where is the price inflection point? ...SMM compiled the price changes in the cobalt market this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices fluctuated downward this week. After three consecutive trading days of decline, on May 29, spot refined cobalt prices fell to 419,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 424,000 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.7%. Supply and demand side, mainstream smelters largely completed their sales targets at the month-end stage, keeping quotes stable. Traders' spot-futures price spread ran at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, with no relaxation in raw material inventory control. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts had largely converged, and the industry's willingness to conduct reverse dissolution production remained subdued. SMM expects the market to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term, and refined cobalt prices still need support from the cobalt salt market to rise. Cobalt Salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, spot cobalt sulphate prices temporarily stabilized at 91,000-93,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 92,000 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt from 93,500 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.6%. Supply and demand side, mainstream brands' quotes on the supply side pulled back to 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt. Some smelters and traders cut prices to ship out due to capital turnover pressure, with low-priced cargoes in the market reaching as low as 87,000-88,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the market was primarily focused on destocking, with a sluggish procurement atmosphere and only sporadic just-in-time procurement. Downstream industry trends diverged: LCO enterprises' production schedules fell short of expectations, compounded by slow order placement, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment; ternary precursor enterprises saw improving production schedules, with purchase willingness gradually rebounding. SMM expects prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and a recovery in cobalt sulphate prices still awaits the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices remained stable after declining on the first trading day of May 25 this week. As of May 29, cobalt chloride spot prices held steady at 111,500-115,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,350 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.35%. Spot market, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere remained mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued their strategy of holding prices firm, refusing to ship at low prices, providing bottom support for prices. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers, under pressure from capital recovery and performance targets, proactively lowered their offers, but transactions remained scarce even after price cuts, driving the market negotiation center to continue shifting downward. Demand side, downstream enterprises were constrained by weak orders and high inventory, with purchase willingness remaining subdued. SMM believes that current prices already have strong support, with limited room for further weakness, and maintains optimistic expectations for the market outlook. Cost side, prices are expected to recover and rebound going forward, but upside room is constrained, with the timing roughly around June . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices also fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 345,000-357,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 351,000 yuan/mt, down 7,000 yuan/mt from 358,000 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.96%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its sluggish trend this week. Supply side, producers found it difficult to hold high prices and offered concessions to facilitate shipments, yet product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still relied mainly on client-supplied materials and long-term contract procurement, with spot order demand continuing to shrink. Meanwhile, affected by weak end-user demand, some clients had begun to slow down the pace of long-term contract cargo pick-up. Looking ahead, the sluggish landscape of the Co3O4 market is unlikely to change in the short term, but SMM still holds a positive view on prices, though support comes more from the cost side, with the boost from supply-demand and procurement remaining relatively limited. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices edged down $0.1/lb on the last trading day this week, quoted at $25.8-26/lb, with an average price of $25.9/lb. Supply-demand side, the supply side maintained a strong bullish sentiment, holding offers near $26/lb. Due to the sluggish cobalt salt market, downstream smelters remained cautious in procurement, making only just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard cargoes transacted at $25/lb. Currently, 2026 Q1 quotas saw slow approval progress due to cumbersome procedures; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, cobalt raw material transportation was given lower priority, and the arrival of large shipments at ports continued to be delayed. Short-term demand support remained weak, and prices may continue to trade sideways; a subsequent market strengthening will still depend on downstream demand recovery and cobalt salt price repair. News side, recently, cobalt product import and export data were released. Regarding unwrought cobalt, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's unwrought cobalt imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. April refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import price, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that US demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting destinations from the US back to China. In terms of average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY cumulatively. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products side, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. The average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in April 2026 was $17,187/mt, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed 2025 Q4 quota approvals, but 2026 Q1 quota approvals again experienced reduced efficiency due to sampling, detection, and other procedural issues. Coupled with the current tight logistics capacity in the DRC, fleets prioritized transporting production-critical oil products and chemicals for economic reasons, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt in non-ferrous metals came last, facing significant transportation capacity challenges. Constrained by the above factors, miners primarily focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet concentrated on chartering vessels, so the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed.

I. MJP Quarterly Premium Surges, Asian Aluminum Market Pricing Center Shifts Significantly Upward This week, two major international aluminum producers, South32 and Rio Tinto, successively announced their Q3 2026 Japan Main Port (MJP) aluminum ingot CIF long-term contract quotes. South32 quoted $480/mt, while Rio Tinto quoted $460/mt. Compared to the Q2 finalised level of $350–353/mt, this represented a significant QoQ increase of $110–130/mt, a rise of over 30%, hitting a phased high in recent years. Affected by the sharp rise in premiums, the Japanese local spot market showed notable differentiation. Some downstream enterprises had relatively high price acceptance, releasing just-in-time procurement willingness; while more cost-sensitive buyers gradually shifted to alternative sources such as other mainstream ex-China brand aluminum ingots to reduce procurement costs. Regional cargo diversion intensified, and Japan's aluminum ingot procurement structure became increasingly diversified. II. Thailand CIF Market: Dual Tailwinds Support Price Rise, Market Shows Strong Prices but Weak Volume As Southeast Asia's core aluminum ingot transit and distribution hub, the Thai market was simultaneously supported by dual tailwinds of MJP high premium transmission and domestic aluminum scrap supply shortages, with traders showing strong willingness to hold prices firm. Currently, mainstream local aluminum ingot CIF offers remained stable at $300–320/mt, with quotes rising WoW. The logic supporting this round of price rise was clear: on the fundamentals side, China's aluminum scrap supply was tight, highlighting the overall aluminum element supply gap and providing solid bottom support for primary aluminum prices; externally, the Q3 MJP premium surge drove Southeast Asian traders to collectively raise spot quotes. Downstream participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see stance, with end-users only maintaining small-batch just-in-time procurement to restock, while overall proactive stockpiling sentiment remained subdued. Acceptance of high-priced resources was low, and the market exhibited a typical pattern of strong prices but weak volume. III. Vietnam Market: Fundamentals Operating Independently, Desensitized to MJP Premium Rise This round of MJP premium increase did not provide notable support to the Vietnamese aluminum market, with market trends remaining relatively independent. The core reason was that local processing enterprises chose to import aluminum semis as a substitute for purchasing aluminum ingots, significantly weakening domestic primary aluminum procurement demand. Domestic demand was diverted by finished aluminum semis, and market trading was sluggish. IV. South Korea Market: Transactions Recover and Prices Rise, Stockpiling Risks Gradually Emerge Driven by the rising QMJP premium, sellers in the South Korean market showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm, with the overall trading atmosphere outperforming other markets in the region. This week, spot transaction activity increased, and market transaction prices rose in tandem. V. Market Summary and Risk Alert: LME Structure Extremely Bullish, Squeeze Risk Elevated to High Levels At the current stage, the core contradiction in the Asian aluminum market stemmed from the global spot supply shortage. This shortage directly drove the Q3 MJP premium significantly higher and radiated outward to Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, and other regional markets, causing notable divergence in market conditions across regions. Meanwhile, the extreme backwardation structure in the LME market further amplifies potential risks at the commodity level: First, futures exhibit a deep backwardation structure. As of May 28, the LME Cash-3M backwardation was recorded at $92.53/mt. This extreme spot premium directly reflects the extreme scarcity of global spot resources. Second, social inventory is at historical lows. Total aluminum ingot inventory in LME registered warehouses stands at only around 340,000 mt, with stock levels hitting new lows. Available spot cargo remains insufficient, posing squeeze risks. Third, speculative stockpiling risks are intensifying. In a market environment of low inventory and high premiums, if regional traders collectively stockpile, hold back from selling, and hold prices firm, this could further tighten available market supply, exacerbate the current tight spot supply situation, and significantly increase the probability of a squeeze occurring. Overall, Asian aluminum prices are more likely to rise than fall in the short term, and the firm pricing pattern in core markets such as Thailand and South Korea will continue. However, market participants should be highly vigilant against squeeze crises triggered by the extreme LME backwardation structure. [Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM