SMM News Flash: [Sheets & Plates] HRC export prices were quoted at 493-497 USD/tonne today, up 1 USD/tonne MoM. Recent market sources indicated that approximately 10,000 tonnes of Chinese HRC were traded at the Port of Sohar in Oman, Middle East, at a CFR price of around 560 USD/tonne, but this was insufficient to suggest a full demand recovery. [Saudi Arabia] Driven by rising scrap and logistics costs, Saudi steelmaker Hadeed has raised prices for the third time in April. The specific adjustments are as follows: rebar (12-32mm) increased by 21 USD/tonne to 704 USD/tonne (CPT Riyadh, excluding 15% VAT); wire rod (7-14mm) increased by 37 USD/tonne to 717 USD/tonne.

In March, total exports of copper wire rod (HS codes 74081100 and 74081900) weakened, showing a MoM decline but YoY growth. The specific data are as follows: According to customs data, in terms of total copper cathode wire rod exports, total exports of copper cathode wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) in March were down 1.27% MoM but up 73.71% YoY. Among them, exports of refined copper wire with a maximum cross-section dimension >6mm were 13,600 mt, down 21.73% MoM but up 100.86% YoY. Exports of other refined copper wire were 11,900 mt per month, up 40.79% MoM and up 50.47% YoY. In March 2026, exports of copper wire rod (HS code 74081100, 74081900) declined MoM, primarily due to chain reactions triggered by escalating geopolitical conflicts, compounded by a cyclical pullback in the prior export pace. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts disrupted international shipping and drove up logistics costs, significantly increasing the difficulty and cost of exports. This, combined with the onset of the off-season following the concentrated release of earlier orders, collectively dragged down exports. By specific trade mode, in March 2026, processing trade with imported materials accounted for 58.55% of total copper wire rod exports, processing trade with supplied materials accounted for 26.9%, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area accounted for 11.83%, and Ordinary Trade accounted for 2.71%. By country, in March, copper wire rod was mainly exported to Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and India, with combined exports accounting for over 70% of the national total. Notably, Saudi Arabia's ranking pulled back sharply from first to seventh place, with exports plunging 87.4% MoM. This was mainly due to the continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which weakened domestic demand in Saudi Arabia and slowed down the procurement pace in infrastructure, power grid, and other sectors. Compounded by disruptions in regional shipping, logistics, and customs clearance, trade flows were hampered, leading to a decline in exports. In summary, copper wire rod exports pulled back MoM in March, mainly due to the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts and periodic disruptions in shipping logistics. Overseas trade channels were obstructed, shipping schedules were extended, and transport capacity was tight, causing the export pace to slow down significantly. Entering April, as geopolitical tensions gradually eased, shipping and trade conditions improved. Combined with the gradual recovery of downstream procurement demand outside China, overall copper wire rod exports in April are expected to rebound MoM.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

Copper prices edged lower as traders focused on potential US-Iran peace negotiations and a possible ceasefire extension. Easing geopolitical tensions could reduce energy and logistics costs, removing part of the risk premium that had supported copper prices.

Nickel Ore " RKAB Approval Delays and Policy Shifts Expected to Drive Nickel Ore Prices Higher" This week, the price of domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased. In the first half of April, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,093 per dry metric ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%. According to SMM's Indonesian nickel ore premium data, the average premiums for laterite nickel ore with grades of 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% were reported at $37.5, $41.5, and $42 per wet metric ton respectively. Among them, the domestic arrival price for 1.6% grade nickel ore was $69.2–75.2 per wet metric ton. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflects the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations regarding the reduction of RKAB quotas. Meanwhile, the delivery price of 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore has also increased to $27–30 per wet metric ton. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, as of April 10, 2026, according to the forecast of the Indonesian Meteorological Agency BMKG, core nickel ore producing regions such as Morowali, Kolaka, and Halmahera will face continuous moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms this week, with humidity expected to approach the saturation level of 99%. Under the combined effect of active atmospheric waves and thick clouds, this extremely humid and changeable weather is expected to continue to constrain the mining efficiency of open-pit mines, slow down logistics and transportation, and further increase the operational difficulty of high-moisture management during the shipping process of laterite nickel ore. The current market is facing an obvious trend of grade decline. Although some NPI smelters have begun to accept ore with a grade of 1.45% and below, pyrometallurgical ore remains tight in April. Currently, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia announced to the media on April 6, 2026, that approximately 190 million to 200 million tons of nickel production quotas in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) have been approved. At present, some mining enterprises have received preliminary notices from the government regarding the latest quota indicators, but most enterprises have yet to obtain the final approved data. The market generally expects that the final approved amount of the 2026 RKAB will be officially finalized in the second week of April. In terms of demand, due to the resource uncertainty faced by some smelters in Indonesia and the difficulty in obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices have shown strong performance. To ensure raw material supply, some smelters have even increased trade bonuses. Hydrometallurgical Ore Additionally, there have been some transactions of low-grade saprolite ore in the market, with its fixed price relatively lower than that of high-grade ore. Following the significant increase in the price of pyrometallurgical ore, the price of limonite has also risen, aiming to further stimulate the sales enthusiasm of mines. In terms of shipping costs, affected by the increase in domestic fuel prices in Indonesia, inter-island logistics costs have shown an upward trend. It is estimated that as the RKAB quotas of mines are gradually issued in the future, freight demand will further increase, and domestic shipping costs may face a new round of upward pressure at that time. On the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia is finalizing the review of the calculation formula for the Mineral Reference Price (HPM) of nickel ore and plans to officially implement it within April 2026. Tri Winarno, the Director General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate, pointed out that the current HPM can no longer accurately reflect the current market price, especially failing to cover the "market premium" actually paid by smelters. Although the regulatory details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still await finalization by inter-ministerial bodies, judging from the current policy trend, this may indicate that the era of tax-free exports of nickel intermediate products from Indonesia is coming to an end. Looking ahead to the after-market, the continuous tightening of Indonesia's policies is expected to open up further upward space for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain. Overall, affected by potential major policy adjustments in Indonesia in the future, market uncertainty has increased, supporting the continuous volatile strengthening of Indonesia's nickel ore prices. Nickel Pig Iron "High-Grade NPI Under Short-Term Pressure Amid Upstream-Downstream Tug-of-War " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price dropped by RMB 2.25 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1080.25 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.43 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 137.01 per nickel unit. High-grade NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) market conditions generally remained steady. As transaction levels stabilized, the market entered a period of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream players, leaving prices under short-term pressure. From the supply side, the center of upstream quotes continued to drift slightly lower. The market has seen a notable increase in the availability of stainless steel scrap. Under the dual weight of weak terminal demand and the cost-effectiveness of scrap, upstream quotes for high-grade NPI are increasingly showing signs of softening. In Indonesia, domestic nickel ore prices have risen, and the market is grappling with a clear decline in ore grades; consequently, the supply of saprolite for pyrometallurgical processing remains tight for April. In the stainless steel spot market, social inventory levels remain at absolute highs. Despite significant pressure to move shipments, steel mills are maintaining high production rates. While there is some support from the cost side, the mills themselves are facing heavy internal cost pressures. Furthermore, with the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap becoming more prominent, mills have low tolerance for high-priced NPI and are maintaining a cautious procurement stance. In summary, NPI prices remain locked in a short-term stalemate between upstream and downstream. Influenced by competition from scrap and limited buying interest from stainless steel mills, prices continue to face overhead pressure.

On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In response, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, registering 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the level of economic prosperity in China. China PMI Performance in March 2026 I. Performance of China’s Manufacturing PMI In March, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating a rebound in the prosperity level of the manufacturing sector. By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM and above the threshold; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points MoM, but still below the threshold. By sub-index, among the five sub-indices comprising the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the new orders index were both above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, the employment index, and the supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points MoM, indicating faster manufacturing production activity. The new orders index was 51.6%, up 3.0 percentage points MoM, indicating a marked improvement in the prosperity level of market demand in the manufacturing sector. The raw material inventory index was 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that the decline in inventories of major raw materials in the manufacturing sector narrowed somewhat. The employment index was 48.6%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, up 0.4 percentage points MoM and below the threshold, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in the manufacturing sector lengthened compared with the previous month. II. Performance of China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM and above the threshold, indicating some improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the business activity index of the construction sector was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM; the business activity index of the services sector was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. From the perspective of the services sector, the business activity index for industries such as railway transportation, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in the relatively high expansion territory above 55.0%; the business activity index for industries such as retail, accommodation, catering, and real estate all stayed below the critical point. The new orders index was 45.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that market demand in the non-manufacturing sector pulled back somewhat. By industry, the new orders index for construction was 43.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index for services was 45.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index was 52.3%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall price level of inputs used in the operating activities of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to rise. By industry, the input price index for construction was 52.7%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month; the input price index for services was 52.2%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The selling price index was 49.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the overall selling price level in the non-manufacturing sector narrowed. By industry, the selling price index for construction was 49.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; the selling price index for services was 50.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The employment index was 45.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that employment conditions among non-manufacturing enterprises pulled back. By industry, the employment index for construction was 39.1%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index for services was 46.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The business activity expectations index was 54.2%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about market development. By industry, the business activity expectations index for construction was 50.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the business activity expectations index for services was 54.8%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. III. Performance of China’s Composite PMI Output Index In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the overall business activity level of production and operations among enterprises in China improved. China’s PMI Returned to Expansion Territory in March — Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interprets China’s PMI for March 2026 On March 31, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China’s PMI. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation. In March, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index all returned to expansion territory, coming in at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5%, respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in the overall economic prosperity level in China. I. The Manufacturing PMI Rose to Expansion Territory In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Chinese New Year and market activity increased, the manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4%, returning to expansion territory. (I) Production and demand expanded simultaneously. The production index and the new orders index stood at 51.4% and 51.6%, respectively, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose into expansion territory. Manufacturing enterprises stepped up production activities, and market demand improved markedly. By industry, the production index and new orders index for such industries as agricultural and sideline food processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were both above 55.0%, and production and demand in related enterprises were released relatively quickly; the two indices for such industries as textile and apparel, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products remained below the critical point, with relatively weak market activity. Driven by the recovery in production and demand, enterprises’ purchase willingness strengthened, and the purchasing volume index was 50.9%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. (II) The PMI of large, medium-sized, and small enterprises all rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level rising steadily; the PMI of medium-sized and small enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3%, respectively, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level improving significantly. (III) The three key industries expanded relatively quickly. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 52.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above the critical point for 14 consecutive months, indicating continued positive development momentum in the industry; the PMI of equipment manufacturing and the consumer goods industry was 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, up 1.7 and 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, and both rose to expansion territory; the PMI of high energy-consuming industries was 48.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level showing some rebound. (IV) Price indices rebounded significantly. Affected by factors such as the continued rise in prices of some bulk commodities in the recent period and the acceleration of enterprise procurement activities, the purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index stood at 63.9% and 55.4%, respectively, up 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall price level in the manufacturing market rebounded markedly. By industry, the two price indices for such industries as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products were both above 70.0%, and the overall level of purchase and sales prices in related industries rose significantly. (5) Market expectations remained stable with a slight increase. The index of expectations for production and business activities was 53.4%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing enterprises became somewhat more confident about near-term market developments. By industry, the index of expectations for production and business activities in sectors such as special-purpose equipment, automobiles, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and other industries remained in a relatively high expansion range above 56.0%, and the related enterprises were more optimistic about future industry development. The survey results also showed that, affected by factors such as the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, prices of related raw materials such as petroleum and chemicals rose sharply. Coupled with higher logistics freight rates, the proportion of enterprises reporting high raw material costs and high logistics costs both increased MoM this month. II. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounded In March, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM, indicating an improvement in the prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector. (1) The service sector business activity index rose above the threshold. The service sector business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. By industry, the business activity indexes for railway transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all remained in a relatively high expansion range above 55.0%, with total business volume growing relatively fast; after Chinese New Year, the business activity indexes for retail, accommodation, catering, and other industries related to residents' travel and consumption fell below the threshold, and market activity weakened somewhat. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 54.8%, continuing to remain at a relatively high level, indicating that service sector enterprises remained optimistic about near-term market developments. (2) The construction sector business activity index improved. As construction projects across various regions gradually resumed work after the holiday, the construction sector business activity index was 49.3%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.5%, above the threshold, indicating that construction enterprises remained confident about future industry development. III. The Composite PMI Output Index Rose Above the Threshold In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage points MoM, indicating that the overall level of production and business activity across China's enterprises continued to improve. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which together constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.4% and 50.1%, respectively.

Since the beginning of this year, the spot treatment charge market for copper concentrates has shown an unprecedented and severe downward trend. The SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Index has fallen from -45 USD/dmt at the start of the year to near -70 USD/dmt, with the speed and magnitude of the decline being historically rare. A negative treatment charge means that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they not only fail to receive traditional processing income from miners but instead must pay the sellers. Based on the current TC of -70 USD/dmt, the actual cost smelters pay sellers in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of 70 USD, or further converted to a TC+RC of approximately 112 USD. This extreme price signal has quickly drawn high market attention to smelter profitability and even sparked concerns about the sustainability of domestic copper smelting production. Despite treatment charges falling to historic lows, copper cathode production by Chinese smelters remains at high levels, currently around 1.2 million tons per month. This phenomenon of "producing more while losing more" appears, on the surface, to contradict market logic, but actually reflects smelters' passive choices and structural supporting factors in the current complex environment. Historically, extreme treatment charge scenarios are not unprecedented. In past industry downturns, smelters often relied on one or several factors—exchange rate fluctuations, rising sulfuric acid prices, or treatment charges themselves—to barely maintain cash flow balance. In the current cycle, the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has become a key variable supporting smelter survival. Currently, the ex-factory prices of smelter acid sold by domestic copper smelters generally range from 800 to 1,600 yuan per ton. The latest SMM Copper Smelting Acid Index stands at 1,235.5 yuan/ton. As a crucial byproduct of copper smelting, sulfuric acid price fluctuations significantly impact smelters' comprehensive earnings. Typically, smelters produce approximately one ton of sulfuric acid for every dry metric ton of copper concentrate processed. Based on the current sulfuric acid price of 1,235.5 yuan/ton, after deducting value-added tax (at a 13% rate) and converting to US dollars (using an exchange rate of 6.9), each ton of sulfuric acid can contribute about 158 USD in revenue for the smelter, equivalent to an additional 158 USD per dry metric ton of copper concentrate. If further converted to the TC+RC metric, this amounts to about 99 USD. Thus, the rise in sulfuric acid prices has significantly offset the loss pressure from negative copper concentrate treatment charges, with some more efficient smelters even achieving marginal profitability. It is precisely this "stabilizer" role of sulfuric acid that allows smelters to maintain high operating rates under extreme treatment charge conditions. However, the support of sulfuric acid for smelting profits is not unlimited, as its price trend is itself influenced by more complex international geopolitical factors. The recent sharp escalation of the Middle East situation has brought significant uncertainty to the global sulfuric acid and sulfur supply chain. Since the joint US-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transport route, has rapidly fallen into a severe transit crisis. After taking office, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, immediately declared that the strait would remain closed as a strategic lever against the US-Israeli alliance and suggested that neighboring countries close US military bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently explicitly announced a ban on any vessels associated with the US or Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences for unauthorized passage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global sulfur transport. Statistics show that before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily. However, after the conflict erupted, transit traffic plummeted by over 90%, with extreme cases of no ships passing for an entire day, leaving over 3,000 vessels stranded in nearby waters. This effective blockade has not only directly impacted the crude oil market—with Brent crude futures rising over 50% within a month to exceed 114 USD per barrel—but has also severely disrupted the global supply chain for sulfur and sulfuric acid. War risks have caused shipping insurance costs to soar to over 20% of the cargo value, further increasing logistics costs and plunging global sulfur supply into a logistical crisis. Although Iran claims to allow passage for vessels from "non-hostile" countries, requiring them to obtain prior permission, actual transit volumes remain extremely low, far below global trade demand. Simultaneously, the Houthi armed group in Yemen has announced its involvement, posing new security threats to the Red Sea-Suez route. The compounding pressure on the two major shipping chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is posing a systemic challenge to the global supply chains for energy and chemical raw materials. As the primary raw material for sulfuric acid production, the disruption in sulfur supply directly drives international and domestic sulfuric acid prices progressively higher. Given the current situation, geopolitical conflicts show no signs of easing in the short term, implying further room for sulfuric acid price increases. The continued rise in sulfuric acid prices will have a dual impact on the domestic copper smelting industry. On the one hand, increased sulfuric acid revenue will continue to provide crucial profit supplementation for smelters, enabling them to maintain production even at lower TC levels and potentially further depressing spot copper concentrate treatment charges. On the other hand, this surge in sulfuric acid prices, driven by geopolitical conflict, also makes smelter profitability highly dependent on external unstable factors, rendering the industry's overall risk resilience increasingly fragile. Notably, the extreme treatment charge environment has begun to have a tangible impact on the global layout of copper smelting capacity. Mitsubishi Materials of Japan recently announced its plan to cease operations at its Onahama copper smelter by the end of March 2027. The smelter has a crude and refined capacity of 230,000 tons, and the main reason for the closure is precisely the intensified competition in the global copper smelting industry, leading to a sharp deterioration in copper concentrate TC/RC and persistent pressure on business prospects. This decision sends a clear signal: against the backdrop of continuously bottoming treatment charges and industry profits highly dependent on byproducts and external environments, some high-cost smelting capacity or those lacking comprehensive recovery capabilities are facing pressure to exit the market. In summary, China's copper smelting industry is currently at a highly unusual cyclical juncture. On one hand, smelters, benefiting from high sulfuric acid prices, have temporarily weathered the impact of negative treatment charges, maintaining high output. On the other hand, sulfuric acid prices themselves are heavily dependent on geopolitical situations, and external variables like the Strait of Hormuz blockade introduce significant uncertainty into the sustainability of smelting profits. If tensions in the Middle East persist, sulfuric acid prices may continue to rise, leaving room for TC to fall further, potentially enhancing smelters' tolerance for extreme treatment charges in phases. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, sulfur supply chains recover, and sulfuric acid prices retreat from their highs, smelters would face the risk of a "double blow" from both low treatment charges and reduced byproduct revenue, potentially heralding a genuine phase of capacity reduction and deep adjustment for the industry. Therefore, the current apparent "resilience" of the copper smelting industry is essentially built upon a fragile balance between geopolitical factors and the byproduct market. For market participants, besides monitoring TC trends, it is crucial to closely track changes in sulfuric acid prices and the underlying geopolitical factors to make more accurate judgments regarding the production sustainability and profitability prospects of the smelting industry.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Navigating the Choke Point: How Middle Eastern Geopolitics are Rewiring Global Aluminum Scrap Flows I. Introduction: The Macroeconomic Catalyst The global secondary aluminum market is currently navigating a severe logistical gauntlet. While physical smelting and processing facilities across the Middle East are facing their own localized pressures, the maritime arteries connecting the region to the rest of the world are fundamentally compromised. With vessel traffic heavily restricted through traditional waterways like the Red Sea, carriers are executing widespread, mandatory rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This geographical detour has introduced hard, quantifiable friction into global trade flows. Transit times from Europe and the Middle East to major Asian main ports have stretched by an additional 12 to 14 days. Consequently, freight costs per container have also reported increases by up to 60-70%. Beyond the immediate ticket price of shipping, this delay translates to millions of dollars in working capital abruptly tied up in floating inventory, severely squeezing liquidity for global traders. To understand the future of secondary aluminum pricing and availability, the market must look at how this disruption cascades across the supply chain. The logistical fallout has created a massive supply shock that is permanently altering working capital dynamics and regional pricing. This structural shift can be traced from Western supply hubs, through the starved processing centers in Southeast Asia, and ultimately to the end-user markets in China and Other Asia, where tightened margins are reshaping the landscape of global scrap procurement. II. The Middle East: The Epicenter of the Bottleneck The Middle East serves as a critical reservoir of scrap aluminum, and current export metrics underscore the massive scale of the material caught in this logistical bottleneck. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand as the undisputed dominant suppliers in the region. Recent mirrored customs data shows the UAE exporting upwards of 309,000 metric tons (MT) in 2025, while Saudi Arabia commands a similar volume, exporting over 277,000 MT in 2024 and up to 260,000 MT by October 2025. Historically, a massive majority of this tonnage has been earmarked for Asian buyers, flowing seamlessly through previously unencumbered maritime routes. India and Korea respectively have been the top 2 export destinations for both the UAE and Saudi Arabia since 2020, with both Asian destinations encompassing a total of 81% for Saudi Arabia’s (2020-2024) and 74% for the UAE’s (2020-2025) total exports of scrap aluminum. Mid-tier exporters further supplement this outward flow. Nations such as Israel (exporting roughly 88,000 to 95,000 MT annually) and Kuwait (over 41,000 to 44,000 MT), alongside consistent volumes from Jordan, Bahrain, and Iran, collectively push significant supplementary tonnage into the global market. Similar to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s situation, South Asia and South Korea remains the most affected: between the years 2020 to 2025, India, Pakistan and South Korea import 60% of the Middle Eastern mid-tier exporters’ scrap aluminum. However, getting this material onto the water, especially through the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly complex, expensive and operationally untenable. In response to the waterway risks, localized workarounds are emerging: suppliers are increasingly bypassing traditional choke points by trucking upstream material overland to alternative, safer ports before loading it onto eastbound vessels. Meanwhile, traditional transit bridges are feeling the strain. Typical scrap flows rely on the Red Sea in the Middle East to ship scrap between Europe and Asia, and this traditional trade route is feeling the strain from the current war in the Middle East. Although the Houthis in Yemen have not enforced shipment closures through the Red Sea, the threat of them doing so in extension of Iran’s closure of the Straits of Hormuz is enough to force certain companies and insurance policies off of Middle Eastern shipment routes, and to reroute around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope. This leads to partial extensions of freight times for up to 12-14 days, and some 60% to 70% surge in per container shipment costs between Europe and Asia. The extended transit time is not just a scheduling issue; it translates to millions of dollars in working capital abruptly tied up in floating inventory. As outward flows from the Middle East and Europe slow down under these compounding pressures, the knock-on effect creates an immediate feedstock starvation for the processing hubs waiting further East. III. Asia: The Primary Impact Zone While the logistical friction originates in the West, the financial and operational shockwaves are most acutely felt in the "Other Asia" region, specifically within the Indian and South Korean markets. These nations serve as the primary off-takers for Middle Eastern scrap, and the sudden disruption to their traditional supply lines has triggered a rapid repricing of the market. India: Demand Absorbing the Freight Shock India represents the most immediate example of a market forced to reconcile surging logistics costs with robust domestic demand. As a direct result of the freight spike and logistical difficulties, CIF India prices for key imported grades from Europe like Tense and Taint/Tabor have seen approximately $50 USD per metric ton price hikes over the past week. Critically, this cost burden is not being borne by the sellers alone. Analysis of the current buyer/seller split suggests that recent increases in Indian domestic demand for scrap are providing significant upward pressure on prices. This has allowed a portion of the inflated freight costs to be absorbed by Indian buyers who are prioritizing material security over margin preservation. However, this absorption is not infinite; the $50 USD spike is beginning to significantly tighten margins for local secondary producers, raising concerns about how long this price elasticity can be maintained if transit delays persist. Korea and Japan: Strategic Stockpiling and Regional Procurement In East Asia, the response to the Middle Eastern bottleneck has been characterized by strategic stockpiling and a pivot toward Southeast Asian (SEA) supply. As both Japan and South Korea commonly purchase scrap and secondary products (like ADC12) from the Middle Eastern region, there is a sudden need to replace material sources that have been disrupted directly by the US/Israel-Iran conflict. Primary market intelligence from Southeast and East Asia has seen Japanese (and to a smaller extent, Korean and Indian) players engaging in large-scale procurement of secondary products from Southeast Asia at significant prices. SMM’s data reveals that over the first and second weeks of the Middle Eastern conflict, ADC12 CIF Japan prices have seen significant rises, reaching highs at 3350-60 USD/mt between the 11 th to 17 th of March 2026. This coincides with large amounts of stock clearance and/or signing of procurement deals that extend up till mid-April to early-May. These purchases are occurring at high price points, driven by robust Japanese demand that is effectively outbidding local processors. This "procurement blitz" is rapidly depleting regional liquidity, leaving Southeast Asian hubs starved of the very feedstock they traditionally rely on to serve their own domestic industries. Thailand local ADC12 prices have been observed to be lagging behind FOB prices by 100-200USD/mt, creating a supply starvation for local downstream needs. As of the 26 th of March, market intelligence has revealed a possible second wave of procurement from East Asian nations in Southeast Asia due to increasing worries over the extended war. Prices for ADC12 FOB Thailand and Malaysia deals have been stabilizing around the 3200-3230 USD/t mark as demand slowly creeps back up for both local and foreign demands. Thailand local and FOB ADC12 prices have just closed the gap to be roughly equal, and deals can be observed both within Thailand and exporting towards East and South Asian markets. IV. China: The Regional Exception While the rest of Asia grapples with supply starvation and skyrocketing premiums, China remains a notable outlier in the current crisis. Historically, China’s secondary aluminum sector has maintained a lower direct reliance on Middle Eastern scrap compared to its neighbors in South and East Asia, providing an initial layer of insulation. However, the primary reason for China’s relative stability is internal: a combination of sluggish domestic demand and historically high inventory levels. As of late March 2026, China’s social aluminum inventories have reached a five-year high, effectively acting as a massive buffer against global supply shocks. Furthermore, the LME-SHFE arbitrage window has remained largely unfavorable for primary imports, keeping Chinese buyers on the sidelines. On the secondary side, the lack of specificity and details regarding the reverse invoicing policy have generally led to the secondary aluminum market shifting towards a more passive stance. Downstream demand for secondary aluminum has pivoted towards immediate and small amounts of material to reduce risks associated with reverse invoicing, leading to weak demand within China. While higher global freight costs have increased the baseline cost for any incoming material, the lack of domestic "buy-side" pressure means that China has avoided the aggressive price spikes seen in India, Southeast Asia and Japan. For now, the Chinese market is a spectator to the volatility, characterized more by weak spot fundamentals and unclear policy than by the procurement panic gripping the rest of the continent. V. Strategic Outlook: The New Reality of Trade The current landscape suggests that the global aluminum scrap market is moving toward a "new normal" characterized by higher logistical floors and reduced liquidity. Increasing political and institutional instability in Iran and the wider Middle East creates ever-increasing tension and uncertainty for global trade through the Middle East. The transition from the Middle East to the Cape of Good Hope could possibly no longer be a temporary detour but a structural shift that traders must eventually consider as a safer alternative. In extension to the Middle Eastern conflict, the endurance of the "procurement blitz" in East Asia will serve as a bellwether for the long-term stability of scrap flows in Asia. If the inventory buffer in Southeast Asia remains depleted by aggressive Japanese and Korean bidding, the upward price pressure on Indian buyers will likely move from a temporary spike to a permanent baseline. Local downstream industries from Thailand and Malaysia might also find it hard in the medium-long term to cope with constantly spiking ADC12 prices and competition from East and South Asia. Ultimately, the traditional metrics of secondary aluminum pricing, such as the LME-SHFE spread or local collection rates, are being overshadowed by the premium on logistical certainty. As available aluminum scrap becomes increasingly scarce due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and increased costs for material from Europe, this creates price-side pressure for both producers and downstream industries across Asia. This leads to a zero-sum environment in which increasing costs are either burdened by buyers through increasing prices, heightened competition and larger local-export arbitrages that put pressure on local downstream industries, or burdened by producers and traders through shrinking margins and intense inter-producer competition. As the market adapts to this fragmented landscape, the value proposition of a successful trader is fundamentally shifting: it is no longer defined solely by the ability to source metal, but by the ability to guarantee its arrival through an increasingly volatile and high-risk global supply chain.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.