According to market reports, European stainless steel alloy surcharges have seen a significant increase for April 2026. Surcharges for Grade 1.4301 (304) rose by approximately 3.6%, notably diverging from LME nickel prices, which actually declined by nearly 1% month-on-month. The primary catalyst behind this surge is the escalating price of ferrochrome, fueled by higher procurement costs, elevated energy prices, and the compounding financial impact of the CO2 tax under the CBAM, fully effective since January 1, 2026. This cost-push is most evident in chrome-heavy grades, with the surcharge for Grade 1.4016 (430) jumping by more than 5.4% compared to the previous month.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

SMM Nickel Market News on February 24: Macro and Market News: (1) On February 23, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries on the grounds of "national security." The proposed tariffs may cover large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented separately from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures. (2) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. Spot Market: On February 24, the price range for SMM #1 refined nickel was 137,300-147,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/mt, up 2,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,300-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 8,900 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: On the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, the nickel market got off to a good start. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) opened higher and continued to rise, showing strong performance. By the end of the morning session, it was quoted at 138,590 yuan/mt, up 1.77%. During the holiday, LME nickel prices rose slightly, and the SHFE nickel market saw a catch-up rally today. During the holiday, a landslide occurred at the IMIP industrial park in Indonesia, resulting in casualties and further intensifying market concerns over supply disruptions. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to break through the 140,000 yuan/mt level again, but upside potential remains constrained by high inventory.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the Nickel Intermediate Product Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

I. Nickel Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, while overseas LME nickel prices showed a rebound. Pre-holiday surge: Before the holiday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it would lock the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt. Boosted by this positive news, market sentiment turned bullish. On February 11, LME nickel once surged to $18,070/mt, with the LME nickel 3M contract closing at $17,880/mt that day, a single-day increase of 2.93%. Post-holiday pullback then rebound: After the Chinese New Year holiday began (after February 16), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, and the pre-holiday positive news was digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which pulled back. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, influenced by a tailings landslide incident at Indonesia’s IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably but overall remained volatile below $18,000/mt. II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. The affected area has currently suspended operations. On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the previous tariff policy of the Trump administration was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce a new 10% global tariff, which was further raised to 15% the following day. In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been volatile. Although progress was made in the February 17 talks, core disagreements remain, and the US continues to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and the Chinese New Year holiday leading to partial shutdowns at some enterprises, production plans have been reduced. Refined nickel production in February is expected to decrease by about 5% MoM. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and end-users resume production, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. Spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel are projected to remain high at 8,000–10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums/discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel are expected to stay within the pre-holiday range of -400–400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at elevated levels. On the downside, the 130,000 yuan/mt level for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upside, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract after the holiday is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include whether supply contraction expectations materialize as anticipated, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week. On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt. Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.