SMM July 28 News: Metal Markets: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.26%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 0.76%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.11%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.25%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.13%, rebar fell 0.62%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.46%, and stainless steel fell 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.36%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.65%. As for base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.56%, LME aluminum fell 0.39%, LME zinc fell 0.36%, LME tin fell 1.57%, and LME nickel fell 0.26%. LME lead rose 0.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.68% and COMEX silver fell 1.96%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.59%. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain sluggish in Q3 despite the fact that historically Q3 is a seasonal stockpiling peak. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which curb fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed. Many risks remain in the short term that could cause gold prices to decline again, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. (Jinshi Data APP) Also, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.12%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.08%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.35% to 2,760 points. As of 11:41 on July 28, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed on oil prices, while rate-hike concerns eased, but the market remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision, with silver prices retreating after rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity... Macro Front Domestic: [Hangzhou: Plan to moderately deploy new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks ahead of demand] The “Hangzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Promotion Regulation (Draft)” is open for public comment. It proposes that the municipal people’s government should make overall plans for the construction of an artificial intelligence infrastructure system, appropriately lay out new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, new-generation communication networks, and trusted data spaces in advance, establish and improve market-oriented operational mechanisms, and ensure efficient utilization, safety, and controllability of all types of facilities; the municipal people’s government should coordinate the layout of intelligent computing power facilities and energy resource allocation. Build a new-type energy system for a megacity, strengthen synergy among power supply, power grid, load, and energy storage, promote urban power supply reliability to meet the usage standards of intelligent computing power facilities, and ensure safe, stable, and sufficient electricity supply for computing power; support the construction and operation of a city computing power resource dispatch service platform through market-based mechanisms, providing the public with convenient services such as computing power resource information release, supply-demand matching, and transaction settlement. Encourage various computing power resources to access the platform to achieve efficient allocation of computing power resources. Support computing power operation enterprises in participating in the construction of the national integrated computing power network. The PBOC conducted 305.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.46. US President Trump said on Monday, when discussing Fed issues, that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he must deal with committee issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and that the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10 Data APP) “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Fed Chairman Warsh had to convince the most rate-cut-enthusiastic president in modern history to appoint him to the Fed chairmanship. Now he faces a new challenge: persuading his 18 colleagues to abandon the professional mindset that he believes led them astray. The first test will come on Wednesday. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Frank Fret, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote in a report that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh’s repeated pledge to restore price stability and signal that policymakers no longer rely on telegraphing every policy move in advance. “The market may again have underestimated the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate increase this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while highlighting the Fed’s independence. ((Jin10 Data APP) HSBC economist Paul Mackel said in a report that unless the US Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the US dollar. Fed Chairman Warsh has acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He said if the meeting this week merely aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to surge significantly because the market is already positioned for rate hikes later this year. “However, we also recognize some are entertaining the idea of a surprise Fed hike, akin to what it did suddenly in February 1994.” He said that if the market welcomes it as a prudential move, this would boost the dollar.(Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup traders are betting the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term interest rate trading, the position they hold will profit if the Fed holds rates steady. Singal said, “We still stick to our expectation that rates will remain unchanged.” He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data indicate that the Fed does not need to raise rates at this time.(Jin10 Data APP) Lloyd Chan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, noted in a research report that the US dollar may be supported in the near term by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent tensions in the Middle East. He also said the Fed decision this week is likely to be a key catalyst for markets. Chan pointed out: “Though no policy change is expected, the market’s focus will be firmly locked on the Fed’s guidance – namely, whether policymakers still lean towards tightening.” The analyst added: “US tariff issues are returning to the spotlight as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff regime after the US Supreme Court overturned Donald Trump’s proposed global reciprocal tariff measures earlier this year.”(Jin10 Data APP) Regarding other currencies: RBA Governor Bullock: It is still uncertain whether the RBA’s rate hikes have been sufficient to bring CPI back to the target range. The RBA Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. The full effects of past rate hikes will take time to manifest. The RBA is committed to preventing cost pressures from becoming entrenched inflation. Core CPI is largely tracking in line with expectations but remains too high. Indicators suggest a mild pace of consumption growth in Q2. A further slowdown in demand growth may be necessary.(from Wall Street CN APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of the US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11, the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) YoY for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, among others. Additionally, note that RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Benjamin will meet US President Trump Donald. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.46% and Brent down 1.37%. Geopolitical tensions eased in phases. On Monday, Trump said the US and Iran are in diplomatic negotiations to end their conflict, but warned that if talks fail, the two sides will resume hostilities. According to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg, Iran and Oman are trying to reach an agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices extended their losses. (from Wallstreetcn APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, July 28: In metals markets: Base metals generally rose in overnight trading both domestically and overseas, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel both declining—LME nickel fell 0.23%, SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. LME copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, while LME zinc and LME tin both rose over 0.7%—LME zinc gained 0.77% and LME tin gained 0.72%. Other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.7%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals generally fell overnight, with stainless steel down 0.82%, HRC, rebar, and iron ore all down over 0.3%—HRC fell 0.33%, rebar fell 0.36%, and iron ore fell 0.34%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.04%, while coke fell 0.65%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, while COMEX silver fell 0.36%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.18% and SHFE silver fell 0.72%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM July 28: Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in Jan–Jun; Electronics-Related Sectors Saw Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, against the backdrop of stable industrial production growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, accelerating 1.5 percentage points from Q1. The faster revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By the three major categories, profits in mining and manufacturing rose 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 ppt and 1.0 ppt from Q1; profits in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size surged 71.7% YoY, boosting the overall industrial profit growth by 8.8 ppt. By sector, driven by factors such as favorable demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, profits in the non-ferrous sector jumped 99.4%, boosting overall industrial profit growth by 4.7 ppt. Propelled by rising prices of petroleum-related products, the petroleum processing sector turned from a loss to a profit YoY, while profits in the chemical sector grew 67.8%. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.08% overnight to 101.53. Citadel Securities expects the US Fed to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility in the fight against inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-bp hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh's repeated commitment to restoring price stability while signaling that policymakers no longer rely on signaling every policy move in advance. "Markets may again be underestimating the degree of the Fed's hawkish shift." This week's hike would "decisively end the era of forward guidance" while underscoring the Fed's independence. US President Trump on Monday commented on the Fed, saying that Chairman Warsh is very good but he has to deal with the committee's issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. On interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10) Citi traders are betting that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, even though the swaps market assigns over a one-third probability to a 25-bp hike. Citi’s global head of short-term rates trading, Akshay Singal, said the bank is taking on July FOMC meeting contracts based on “high conviction”—positions that will pay off if the central bank stays on hold. Currently, the swaps market sees a nearly 40% probability of a 25-bp hike this week. This comes after escalating Middle East tensions triggered wild swings in oil prices and US Treasury yields, fueling inflation worries. “We remain strongly forecasting that the Fed will hold rates steady,” Singal told Bloomberg News. He added that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “has made it very clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data tell us there’s no need for the Fed to hike now.” Singal said Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance has also added to market uncertainty. “The market is currently lacking clear guidance,” Singal said. “We expect a healthy and robust debate, but ultimately rates will be left unchanged.” (Wall Street CN) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 36.3%. By September, the probability of rates staying on hold is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 25.8%. (Jin10) Other Currencies: Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing said in a report that while markets have priced in slightly more than 50 bp of rate hikes from the Fed, BOE, and ECB by mid-2027, policy paths could diverge next year. If the Iran war ends, energy prices will retreat and domestic economic fundamentals will become the main driver of monetary policy. However, underlying inflation pressures in the UK and eurozone are weaker. The situation in the US is different, and fiscal policy also remains relatively loose. Shearing said it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the tightening expectations priced in for the ECB and BOE, though the Fed may resume tightening before long. (Jin10) According to people familiar with the matter, the Swiss National Bank plans to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before potentially starting to hike. This view is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks. They noted that the recent softening of the Swiss franc against the euro and the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the eurozone are also factors shaping this expectation. The people said that if the economic outlook faces fresh shocks, implementing negative rates remains an option, but they stressed that this is not the current baseline scenario. They added that zero rates have not seriously hurt the profitability of the Swiss banking sector. The SNB kept rates unchanged at its June meeting and expects to keep them on hold until the end of next year. (Jin10) Macro Front: Today, data releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the May FHFA House Price Index MoM, the May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (NSA), the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: Both oil benchmarks plunged overnight, with WTI falling 8.29% and Brent falling 6.9%. The Middle East geopolitical risks that had been driving the relentless surge in oil prices showed clear signs of cooling. US President Trump confirmed that he would suspend a new round of strikes against Iran, leaving a window for diplomatic negotiations, and the market rapidly unwound the “war premium” previously priced in. Market analysis suggests that the sharp sell-off was not driven by a sudden deterioration in demand but rather a concentrated release of the risk premium that had accumulated rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz transit risks and escalating US-Iran military tensions. However, several institutions also warned that the current situation remains far from genuine de-escalation, and oil prices could still rebound sharply if military action escalates again. (Wall Street CN) Although market sentiment has improved markedly, analysts generally believe it is still too early to say that Middle East risks have passed. The Wall Street Journal noted that the US suspension of military action has increased the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis and boosted market expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will eventually normalize. However, key variables including Red Sea shipping security, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Iran nuclear issue, and the future passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, meaning international oil prices will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Reuters also pointed out that the market’s focus this week will remain on whether US-Iran contacts can achieve substantive progress. If negotiations fail and military action re-escalates, the risk premium just released from the energy market could quickly return to oil prices. (Wall Street CN) US President Trump said on Monday that the US has collected more than $13 billion from Venezuelan crude oil sales since US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a cross-border operation. “Venezuela has brought us $13 billion? I think it’s more than that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan to visit a General Motors plant. “We’ve more than made back the cost of that war many times over.” Trump claimed the money was used to keep Venezuela running. “We’re making a lot of money—billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela.” (Financial Times)

SMM July 27 News: Metal Market: At the midday break, domestic base metals were mixed. SHFE copper rose 0.31%, while SHFE aluminum edged lower. SHFE lead fell 1.11%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin rose 1.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.13%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.19%. Lithium carbonate’s most-traded contract rose 0.86%. Silicon metal’s most-traded contract rose 0.24%. Polysilicon’s most-traded futures contract rose 0.15%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.33%, and HRC rose 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.62%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.87%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.49%, while LME aluminum fell 0.27%. LME tin and LME zinc each rose within 0.5%. LME lead edged lower. LME nickel fell 0.32%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.42% and COMEX silver rose 1.1%. In the domestic market: SHFE gold rose 0.87%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. In addition, at the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.31%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.22%. At the midday break, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 3.02% to 2,750 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:40, July 27: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, cooling geopolitical tensions temporarily; oil prices tumbled, and inflation and rate-hike expectations eased, while precious metals rebounded. The spot market sustained parity deals, with the weak supply-demand pattern persisting. …… 》Click for details Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in 1H; Electronics-Related Sectors Posted Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, amid steady manufacturing growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points from Q1. Accelerating revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By major sector, mining and manufacturing profits grew 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 and 1.0 percentage points from Q1; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of the raw material manufacturing sector above designated size rose 71.7% YoY, boosting overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 8.8 percentage points. From an industry perspective, driven by improving demand for non-ferrous metal products such as copper and aluminum, profits of the non-ferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, boosting overall profit growth by 4.7 percentage points; driven by higher prices of products in the petroleum industry chain, the petroleum processing sector swung from losses to a profit YoY, and profits of the chemical sector rose 67.8%. The PBOC conducted 325.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 398.5 billion yuan of reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of MLF matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.26 to 101.22. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of unchanged rates through September is 19.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 25.2%. Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's July CBI Distributive Trades Survey balance, the US June durable goods orders MoM, and the US July Dallas Fed New Orders Index. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 4.97% and Brent down 3.93%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased slightly, and oil prices fell sharply at the open on Monday as traders assessed Middle East supply risks. With the US-Iran conflict spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, Brent crude has surged about 30% this month, briefly breaking above $100 per barrel last week. The conflict, now nearing the end of its fifth month, has heightened concerns about a global inflation shock as the global fuel market has lost idle capacity while the war drives up prices, and refined product prices have jumped. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Nickel prices extended their upward trend this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract posted a "five-day winning streak" on its daily chart, decisively breaking through the 133,000 yuan/mt level and holding above it, with a weekly gain of over 2%. LME nickel rose in tandem to $17,500/mt, hitting a near one-month high. The drivers behind the nickel price rally remained the "Indonesia export control policy + Strait of Hormuz sulfur crisis + continuous LME inventory destocking." In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 131,440 yuan/mt this week, up 2,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan refined nickel weakened continuously this week, falling to 1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel was quoted at a discount between -300 and -500 yuan/mt. As futures prices continued to rebound, downstream purchasing interest remained low and was limited to just-in-time procurement. Overall spot market transactions were relatively sluggish. On the macro front, geopolitical tensions remained elevated this week. The US military launched another strike on Iran, and President Trump stated he was "seriously considering" restarting large-scale combat operations against Iran. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded, the difficulty of restoring Middle East sulfur supply will increase. Policy expectations for the US Fed's July FOMC meeting became clearer. The latest CME FedWatch Tool data showed a 65.3% probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the July meeting, versus a 34.7% chance of a 25bp hike, with a consensus forming for staying pat in July. The suppressive pressure from the macro front on non-ferrous metals marginally eased. Inventory side, as for inventories, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 130 kt, reflecting a buildup of approximately 1,800 mt WoW. LME's five consecutive days of destocking this week offered a positive signal, though absolute levels remained at historical highs. If the destocking trend persists, the foundation for a nickel price rebound will become more solid. The US-Iran conflict continues and could escalate, leaving sulfur supply risks in place, and the quantitative magnitude of supplementary RKAB quotas remains the key factor behind the subsequent nickel price trend. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

SMM July 24 News: Metal Market: As of midday, domestic base metals fell broadly. SHFE copper fell 1.21%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both fell within 0.5%. SHFE lead fell 0.82%. SHFE tin fell 1.59%. SHFE nickel rose 0.2%. Additionally, casting aluminum most-traded futures fell 0.58%, alumina most-traded rose 0.37%. Lithium carbonate most-traded fell 0.74%. Silicon metal most-traded edged down. Polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.67%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.8%, rebar fell 0.68%, HRC fell 0.3%. Stainless steel fell 0.91%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract was flat at 1,282 yuan/mt, coke most-traded contract edged up 0.05%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper rose 0.43%, LME aluminum, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.5%. LME lead was flat at $1,887/mt. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 0.44%, COMEX silver fell 0.88%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.65%; SHFE silver most-traded fell 4.82%. Additionally, as of midday, platinum most-traded futures fell 4.94%, palladium most-traded futures fell 5.68%. As of midday, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.65% to 2,807.5 points. As of 11:40 on July 24, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,085 yuan/mt, down 1,215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,000 yuan/mt, down 1,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front Domestic side: [State Grid's fixed-asset investment in H1 up 12.6% YoY] Today, we learned from State Grid Corporation of China that in H1, State Grid completed fixed-asset investment of over 310 billion yuan, up 12.6% YoY. Among them, construction of 15 ultra-high-voltage (UHV) projects and 37 pumped-storage power stations is accelerating. Meanwhile, investment in new energy grid connection projects continues to increase. As of end-June, the new energy grid-connected installed capacity in State Grid's operating area reached 1.55 billion kW. (CCTV) [PBOC net withdrawal of 361.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.02 to 101.42. As the threat of escalating war in Iran drove up oil prices, US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, and markets expected the Fed could raise rates as soon as next week. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points on Thursday to around 4.34%, its highest since early 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a year-to-date high, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, just below its highest level since 2007. As Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked a commercial vessel for the first time in months, Brent crude oil has been slowly rebounding toward $100 per barrel. This rise continues to pressure the US Treasury market and has led traders to increasingly believe that the Fed under Warsh will raise rates soon this year. (Jinshi Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 34.7%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 17.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 57%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp hike is 25.4%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell sharply last week, indicating that the labour market remains stable and that Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said on Thursday that initial claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared with expectations of 212,000. Thursday's report was the latest signal of sustained stability in the labour market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the decline was more due to a shrinking labour force rather than job growth. The US labour market is exhibiting an unusual balance: limited labour supply, slow job creation, and limited layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at historically low levels. This situation has led a growing number of Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, which remains well above the 2% target, rather than express greater concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP) Data wise: Today’s data releases include Germany's August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Germany July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Services PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Services PMI, and US June New Home Sales Annualized Total. Also worth watching: the AMD Advancing AI conference was held in San Francisco on July 22-23; Intel’s Q2 earnings were released after the US stock market close on July 23. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI up 0.01% and Brent down 0.07%. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict continued to intensify. The Houthis announced this week that they had attacked a Saudi oil tanker, formally turning the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea into a new frontline of conflict, putting global oil supply into a “dual chokepoint” predicament. Market analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remained obstructed and a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait became reality, oil prices risked further surging to $120 or even higher. Rapidan Energy Group President and former White House official Bob McNally said, “The scale of the second round of military conflict will exceed the first, posing enormous risks to shipping and energy infrastructure.” (Wallstreetcn) ANZ: It maintained its forecast of $92/barrel for Brent crude at end-Q3 2026, reflecting an uneven rebound in Persian Gulf oil flows. If regional supply disruptions intensify and market buffers weaken, Brent crude prices could rise to $120/barrel. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

China’s NPI prices have remained firm despite falling production costs because freely available inventories have tightened. FeNi, meanwhile, has followed lower benchmark nickel prices and faced competition from cheaper refined nickel, compressing its premium over NPI. The divergence could reverse as Chinese output rises and Indonesian producers switch capacity back to NPI.

SMM July 24 News: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE aluminum edged down, SHFE lead fell 0.57%, SHFE zinc fell 0.22%, SHFE tin fell 1.24%. SHFE nickel edged up. Furthermore, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.33%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 0.17%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.47%, iron ore fell 0.47%, rebar fell 0.45%, and HRC fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.31%, and the most-traded coke futures contract edged up. Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals mostly moved downward. LME copper fell 1.74%. LME aluminum fell 0.08%, LME lead fell 0.32%. LME zinc fell 0.14%. LME tin fell 1.19%. LME nickel rose 0.85%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 2.4%, COMEX silver fell 3.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 2.25%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.22%. As of 7:07 AM on July 24, overnight closing prices: On the Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce: Will further strengthen the domestic economic cycle and optimize the dual domestic and international cycles] On July 23, Ministry of Commerce Vice Minister Yan Dong stated at a press conference that since the beginning of this year, according to the deployment of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, efforts have been stepped up to advance the formulation and implementation of related “15th Five-Year” special plans in the commercial sector. The next step will continue to focus on high-quality development as the primary task, continuously improve policy effectiveness, further strengthen the domestic economic cycle, optimize the dual domestic and international cycles, and make new positive contributions to national economic development. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Ministry of Commerce: China and US economic and trade teams are exploring a framework arrangement to promote reciprocal tariff cuts each worth $30 billion] Meng Huating, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Investment Administration of the Ministry of Commerce, responded to a question on the progress of establishing trade and investment councils between China and the US at a State Council Information Office press conference on the 23rd, stating that currently, the economic and trade teams of China and the US are maintaining close communication on the specific arrangements for the trade council’s structure, functions, and operational model, and are exploring a framework arrangement to promote reciprocal tariff cuts each worth $30 billion. The Chinese side is extensively soliciting opinions from domestic enterprises, business associations, local governments, and US-invested enterprise associations and other stakeholders on the relevant proposed tariff cut arrangement. The US side is also seeking public comment on the trade council and reciprocal tariff cut arrangement. Both sides will maintain close exchanges and finalize the specific product tariff cut arrangements as soon as possible and promote implementation to further expand bilateral trade. (Xinhua News Agency) [People’s Bank of China conducts 500 billion yuan MLF operation] The People’s Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, it would conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price bidding method, with a term of 1 year. [CSRC: Promote steady increase in the scale and proportion of medium and long-term funds entering the market, strengthen policy reserves to cope with global market fluctuations and cross-border risk contagion] The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on Party building and regulatory work. The meeting emphasized that the changes unseen in a century are accelerating, geopolitical conflicts persist, and the risk of resonance and contagion in global financial markets is rising. At the same time, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating breakthroughs, positive factors on the macro policy front, fundamentals front, and capital front are accumulating, the effects of capital market reforms are continuously emerging, and the market overall possesses good allocation value. The meeting stressed implementing comprehensive measures to fully maintain stable market operations and enhance capital market resilience. It called for more precise and effective counter-cyclical adjustments, promoting the steady increase in the scale and proportion of medium and long-term funds entering the market, strengthening policy reserves to cope with global market fluctuations and cross-border risk contagion, and building a strong seawall against external risk shocks. It urged deepening reforms to enhance institutional inclusiveness and adaptability, implementing detailed measures for comprehensive investment and financing reforms, and better leveraging the functions of the stock, fund, bond, and futures markets. [Beijing issues measures to accelerate the development led by AI agents, accelerating key technological breakthroughs in general AI agents across models and chips] Multiple departments in Beijing jointly formulated the “Several Measures of Beijing on Accelerating Development Led by AI Agents,” which have been approved by the municipal government and are now officially issued for implementation. The measures mentioned supporting innovative entities in implementing Harness Engineering, focusing on optimizing context engineering, task persistence, multi-agent collaboration, and system scalability to solidify the common foundation for AI agents. It aims to accelerate key technological breakthroughs in general AI agents across models and chips, support innovative entities in continuously improving the intermediate software stack, research and develop key operators and frameworks suitable for AI agent development, promote adaptation and optimization with indigenous large models, and improve the length of complex task chains and the stability of long-range task execution. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [ZCE solicits opinions on revising futures trading management measures and market maker management measures] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement soliciting public opinions on the revision of the “Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Futures Trading Management Measures” and the “Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Market Maker Management Measures.” In accordance with the Futures and Derivatives Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Futures Trading Management Regulations, the Measures for the Administration of Futures Exchanges, and other relevant laws, regulations, and rules, ZCE plans to revise the Management Measures, and is now soliciting public opinions from the market. The revision notes are as follows: First, improve the applicable circumstances for ZCE’s emergency measures by adjusting Article 16 of the Trading Management Measures. Second, for products with night trading sessions, introduce a call auction 5 minutes before the start of the daytime session on trading days with a night session, adjusting relevant provisions in both the Trading Management Measures and Market Maker Management Measures. Adding a daytime call auction can generate a fairer price at the start of daytime trading, promoting stable market operations. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.32%, closing at 101.12. Inflationary pressures reheated, and the probability of a Fed rate hike next week surged to about 38%. Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute said: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, raising concerns that inflation could re-accelerate, delaying rate cuts or even possibly forcing the Fed to raise rates. (Wallstreetcn) Data-wise: US initial jobless claims fell sharply last week, indicating the US labour market remains stable and Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared to expectations of 212,000. Thursday’s report is the latest signal of sustained labor market stability. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the drop was driven more by a shrinking workforce than by employment growth. The US labour market shows an unusual equilibrium: limited labour supply, slow new job additions, and relatively limited layoffs keep the unemployment rate historically low. This situation increasingly prompts Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, still well above the 2% target, rather than expressing more concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP) Other Currencies: [European Central Bank holds interest rates steady] The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but investors expect the bank to raise rates in coming months to curb inflation sparked by the Middle East war. The ECB’s deposit facility rate was held at 2.25%, in line with broad market expectations, after the bank made its first rate increase in nearly three years last month. Tensions escalating in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed global oil prices back towards $100 a barrel, reviving the risk of war-driven inflationary pressures. (Jinshi Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include Germany’s August Gfk consumer sentiment index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, Germany’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, Eurozone’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, UK’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, UK’s July preliminary services PMI, US July preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US July preliminary S&P Global services PMI, and US June new home sales annualized total. Also pay attention to: AMD Advancing AI Conference held in San Francisco from July 22-23; Intel’s Q2 earnings report released after the US market close on July 23. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their gains from the previous four trading sessions, with US crude rising 6.37% and Brent crude rising 4.91%. Brent crude oil futures rose to $100/barrel for the first time in two months. This followed Yemen’s Houthis claiming an attack on two Saudi oil tankers sailing in the Red Sea, intensifying the Middle East conflict and threatening further oil supply disruptions. The Houthi attack opened a new front in the regional conflict, following already troubled traffic in the Strait of Hormuz due to US-Iran clashes. Since the conflict erupted, the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea has become a lifeline for oil exports. In recent days, both US and Iranian sides have downplayed the possibility of peace talks, making a scenario of long-term hostilities appear possible. (Jinshi Data APP) A significant backwardation appeared in the price spread between Brent crude oil futures and spot prompt prices, signaling market fears that conditions could worsen. The president of Rapidan Energy Group stated: The scope of the second round of military conflict will be larger than the first. The risks are immense, not just for the shipping industry but for energy infrastructure as well. Oil market participants indicated political pressure is mounting on President Trump to end the war and control surging energy costs. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM July 23 News: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged down, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.45%. SHFE lead rose 1.02%. SHFE zinc rose 1.47%. SHFE tin rose 0.27%. SHFE nickel rose 1.05%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.5%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.66%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 4.24%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.67%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.51%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 1.15%, rebar rose 0.52%, and HRC rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.61%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.4%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:39 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.27%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.42%, LME zinc rose 0.75%, and LME tin edged up. LME nickel rose 0.58%. Precious metals: As of 11:39 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.46%, and COMEX silver fell 0.3%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.86%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.55%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.1%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.38%. As of midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe route) contract rose 0.92% to 2,855 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 AM, July 23: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Amid recurring geopolitical risks, silver prices are consolidating around steady levels. End-of-month willingness to sell from smelters is strong, spot transactions are near parity, and overall demand remains weak... Macro Front China: [The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the Renewable Energy Development 15th Five-Year Plan] The plan states that by 2030, total renewable energy consumption is expected to reach approximately 1.8 billion mt of standard coal equivalent. By 2030, total installed renewable energy power generation capacity is expected to reach approximately 3.5 billion kW, with annual power generation of approximately 6 trillion kWh; total installed wind and solar power capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kW, accounting for over 50% of total capacity, with annual power generation exceeding 4 trillion kWh and accounting for 30% of total generation. By 2030, the scale of non-electricity renewable energy utilization is expected to grow 1.5 times compared to 2025, equivalent to approximately 150 million mt of standard coal. By 2030, the average firm output of wind and solar PV (including source-side energy storage) nationwide is expected to reach 8% (around 11% for wind and 6% for PV), with wind and solar PV (including source-side energy storage) accounting for over 20% of electricity during the evening peak of summer and winter demand, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, over 300 million kW of new reliable peak-shaving renewable energy capacity will be added. (from Wall Street News APP) [Beijing Expands Subsidized Products for the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-in Program] The Beijing Municipal Commerce Bureau issued an announcement on expanding the list of subsidized products for the 2026 consumer goods trade-in program. After obtaining filing confirmation from the Ministry of Commerce, ten additional product categories will be included in the subsidy program. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows: Subsidies will be provided to individual consumers in Beijing purchasing the following ten categories of products: smart door locks, smart cameras, smart robot vacuums (including smart floor scrubbers and smart vacuum cleaners), smart toilets (including smart toilet seat covers), digital cameras (including action cameras), smart earphones, whole-house smart hosts (including smart home servers and smart gateways), smart beds (including smart mattresses), smart electric wheelchairs, and embodied AI robots (including companion robots, robotic dogs, exoskeleton robots, and elderly care robots). For individual consumers purchasing the above smart home products (including elderly-friendly home products), the subsidy standard is 15% of the final selling price after all discounts, with each person eligible for one subsidized item per category, and the subsidy per item capped at 1,500 yuan. (from Wall Street News APP) [Guangdong: Industrial Robot Production Up 34.2% YoY in H1] According to the Guangdong Statistics Information Network, in H1, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province increased by 5.8% YoY. By sector, the value-added of the mining sector was up 8.8% YoY, manufacturing up 5.4%, and power, heat, gas, and water supply up 8.9%. By industry, the value-added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry was up 11.6% YoY, electrical machinery and equipment up 4.2%, and automobile manufacturing up 9.9%. By product, industrial robot production was up 34.2% YoY, and integrated circuits up 29.7%. (from Wall Street News APP) [PBOC Net Drains 422 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] The PBOC conducted 204 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. A total of 626 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.14 to 100.98. On July 22 local time, US President Trump mentioned in a speech in Georgia that a federal government "shutdown" would occur in September due to differences between Republicans and Democrats over spending priorities. On July 21 local time, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed a short-term spending bill that will fund federal government agencies through December 4, avoiding a government shutdown due to funding depletion before the November midterm elections. This temporary funding measure, also known as a "continuing resolution," will now be sent to the Senate for consideration. Republican leaders in the Senate are currently negotiating with Democrats and may propose their own short-term spending bill. If Congress fails to pass an appropriations bill in time, funding for most federal agencies and programs will expire at midnight on September 30, the end of the current fiscal year. (CCTV) As energy prices remain elevated, inflation expectations are heating up, and the market is focused on whether the upcoming Fed meeting next week will release clues about the future rate path. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 34.7%. The probability of rates remaining unchanged through September is 22%, a cumulative 25-bp hike is 54.9%, and a cumulative 50-bp hike is 23%. Other currencies: Mizuho Securities economist Yusuke Matsuo said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to reiterate the stance of seeking further rate hikes at next week's press conference, but this is unlikely to reverse the yen's weakness. "The market has largely priced in the expectation that the BOJ will hike rates once every six months, so such comments alone are unlikely to push the yen significantly higher. Given that the market anticipates clarity on the timing and magnitude of the next rate hike, any stance interpreted as dovish could exacerbate the yen's weakness amid broad dollar strength." The market widely expects the BOJ to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1% at next week's meeting as it assesses the impact of the last rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, data releases include China's June Swift renminbi share in global payments, Australia's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the UK's July CBI industrial orders balance, the eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate as of July 23, the eurozone's ECB main refinancing rate as of July 23, Canada's May retail sales m/m, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, and the eurozone's July consumer confidence index flash estimate. Also watch for: the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference; Google and Tesla reported Q2 earnings after the US market close on July 22. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.88% and Brent up 1.57%. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, and global energy markets are repricing for a protracted supply shock. Both the US and Iran have clearly signaled a refusal to negotiate, reducing expectations for a near-term ceasefire to virtually zero. The rise in oil prices is no longer driven purely by supply-demand logic; a geopolitical risk premium is becoming a structural anchor in the pricing system. (Wall Street CN) Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva noted in a report that if tensions continue to escalate, Brent crude could test $100/bbl. She said that while the market is currently bearing mainly logistical risks rather than actual crude losses, this distinction could quickly narrow if attacks persist. Sachdeva pointed out that the greatest risk for energy markets would be prolonged traffic disruptions in both the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz. She added that the market's flexibility in rerouting cargoes would be very limited at that point, and shipping disruptions could rapidly evolve into broader inflation concerns. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, July 23: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.16%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.35%, SHFE lead gained 0.54%, SHFE zinc gained 0.98%, and SHFE tin fell 0.23%. SHFE nickel rose 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract gained 0.28%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up 0.2%, iron ore gained 0.34%, rebar rose 0.16%, and HRC edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract added 0.51%, and the most-traded coke contract edged up 0.08%. Overnight overseas, LME base metals mostly moved sideways. LME copper edged down 0.04%. LME aluminum was flat at $3,192.5/mt. LME lead fell 0.18%. LME zinc fell 0.15%. LME tin rose 0.39%. LME nickel fell 0.53%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.44%, and COMEX silver rose 1.57%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.16%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.69%. As of 7:07 am July 23, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: As of end-June, national cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 4.04 billion kW, up 10.8% YoY] On July 22, the National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for the January-June period. As of end-June, total installed power generation capacity reached 4.04 billion kW, up 10.8% YoY. Solar power capacity was 1.27 billion kW, up 15.8% YoY; wind power capacity was 680 million kW, up 18.5% YoY. [CSRC: steadily expand high-level institutional opening and continuously improve the convenience for foreign investors in the capital market] On July 21, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), met in Beijing with John Graham, President and CEO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The two sides exchanged views on global and China economic and financial trends, investing in China’s capital market, and other topics. Wu Qing noted that against a complex and shifting international landscape, China’s economy performed generally stable in H1, maintaining a positive and improving trend and demonstrating resilience and vitality. The CSRC will pursue progress while ensuring stability, resolutely safeguard the sound and stable operation of the capital market, steadily expand high-level institutional opening, and continuously improve the convenience for foreign investors in the capital market. We welcome international institutional investors, including the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), to expand their investments in China and share in the dividends of China’s economic and capital market reform and development. Graham stated that CPP Investments, as a long-term investor with a global footprint, pays close attention to and remains optimistic about the effectiveness of China’s economic reform and development, has long regarded China as one of its key investment regions globally, and will continue to practice its value investing philosophy by actively deploying investments in China. [Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Co., Ltd. (BSCOMC): To date, it has allocated nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds to the stock market.] On July 22, Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Co., Ltd. (BSCOMC) announced that, to date, BSCOMC had allocated nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds to the stock market. Going forward, BSCOMC will rely on its own funds and its securities companies and public fund subsidiaries to continue increasing its holdings of listed companies’ stocks, support the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and, in line with its functional positioning as a state-owned capital operation company, resolutely safeguard the strategic value of listed companies’ core assets, thereby contributing the strength of Beijing’s state-owned enterprises to the stable and healthy development of the capital market. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 101.12. US military strikes on Iran entered their 11th day, oil prices spiked to a six-week high, inflation expectations heated up in response, and the possibility of a Fed rate hike in July resurfaced. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.7%. By September, the probability of unchanged rates is 22%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 54.9%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 23%. (Jin10 Data APP) Joseph Lavorgna, chief US economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), stated that if inflation does not slow, policymakers will lose their hard-won credibility. In a report, Lavorgna noted that over the past 70 years, there have been only six instances where core inflation fell by 0.9% or more year-over-year. In each case, the slowdown in inflation occurred because the Fed was tightening policy. Lavorgna said, “The longer the Fed waits, the greater the likelihood that interest rates will have to rise above the level necessary. That’s why so many past tightening cycles ended in tragedy. Chair Warsh understands this.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data due to be released include China’s June RMB share in Swift global payments, Australia’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the UK’s July CBI industrial order book balance, the Eurozone’s deposit facility rate as of July 23, the Eurozone’s main refinancing rate as of July 23, Canada’s May retail sales month-over-month, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, and the Eurozone’s July consumer confidence flash estimate. Also note: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference; Google and Tesla Q2 earnings reports were released after the US stock market close on July 22. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended gains for the third straight session, with WTI up 2.54% and Brent up 4.93%. The escalating Middle East conflict and market fears of supply disruptions supported oil prices. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command issued a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Any vessel needing to pass through the strait must use designated routes and follow previously announced transit arrangements. The statement noted that if the US follows through on its threats, Iran will cut off all oil flows in the Gulf region and strike oil, gas, electricity, and economic infrastructure there. The statement also said repeated US threats will only lead to the expansion of war in the region and beyond. (Jin10 Data APP) US domestic crude oil production for the week ending July 17 recorded its largest decline since the week ending January 30, 2026. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending July 17 dropped to their lowest since the week ending March 25, 1983. EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.01 million barrels to 412 million barrels, up 0.49%. (Jin10 Data APP) US refiners are raising diesel output to near record levels, reversing the seasonal trend. According to the US Department of Energy, refineries have averaged 5.3 million barrels per day of refined fuel oil (of which diesel is the main component) this month. If sustained, this would be the highest diesel production for July on record in the US and one of the highest months outside the winter heating season. Typically, diesel production peaks near year-end, but this year, due to severe global supply tightness, refiners have ramped up output months ahead of schedule. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM, July 22 – In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.34%, SHFE aluminum added 0.72%, SHFE zinc advanced 0.78%, SHFE lead fell 0.85%, SHFE tin climbed 1.11%, and SHFE nickel jumped 1.36%. Furthermore, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.59%, the most-traded alumina contract settled on par with 2,723 yuan/mt. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.5%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.42%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.59%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 1%, rebar edged lower, and HRC was flat at 3,284 yuan/mt. Stainless steel rose 0.61%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract gained 1.56%, and the most-traded coke contract advanced 0.66%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45 AM, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper fell 0.3%, LME aluminum edged up, and LME lead, LME zinc, and LME tin all posted gains within 0.2%. LME nickel rose 0.52%. In precious metals, as of 11:45 AM, COMEX gold rose 1.53% and COMEX silver gained 1.64%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold rose 2.8%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract surged 4.79%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 4.2%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract jumped 5.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping contract on the European route fell 0.52% to 2,785 points. As of 11:45 AM on July 22, some futures midday market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations and technical corrections drove a silver price rebound, which may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Spot market demand was sluggish, with transactions near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persists... Macro Front China: [GAC: Accelerate Implementation of 57 Port Facility Renovation Projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan] This morning (July 22), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, accelerating customs modernization, and serving the building of a trade power. Ports are the gateway to opening-up. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the customs will accelerate the implementation of major projects and key border port projects under the national 15th Five-Year Plan, simultaneously carry out 57 port facility renovation projects under the plan, and speed up the construction of railway ports such as Turugart and Ganqimaodu. This will help further optimize the layout of port opening. (CCTV News) [Beijing Rolls Out "Ten Go-Global Measures" to Reduce Burden and Empower Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global] On July 21, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology held a press conference on the H1 2026 economic performance of Beijing's industrial and information software industry. It was introduced at the meeting that at the end of last year, Beijing issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Construction of the Beijing Digital Economy Enterprise Go-Global Innovation Service Base (2026–2028)", setting out the goals and tasks for Beijing enterprises going global over the next three years. Drawing on the operational practices of the Beijing Go-Global Base and the core needs of nearly a hundred digital economy enterprises, Beijing recently issued the "Several Measures to Accelerate the Promotion of Digital Economy Enterprises Going Global" (referred to as the "Ten Go-Global Measures"), complementarily, providing ten financial and resource support measures to comprehensively reduce burdens and empower enterprises’ international development. The policy mainly focuses on the following three aspects: first, broadening overseas connection channels to overcome market expansion challenges; second, improving full-process supporting services to reduce cross-border compliance costs; third, fostering an international digital ecosystem to build a capital go-global brand. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: plans to steadily and orderly advance the completed home sales system and promote the reform of real estate development financing methods] During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Guangzhou plans to actively and prudently plan pilot projects for the completed home sales system, selecting suitable land parcels for pilot implementation at an appropriate time. It will strengthen financial service support, encourage commercial banks to increase development loan quotas for completed home sales projects and offer preferential interest rates. For completed home sales land parcels, support such as installment payment of land premiums and public resource allocation will be provided. For projects that continue to use the presale system, supervision of presale funds for commodity housing will be standardized to regulate fund usage. At the same time, financial coordination will be strengthened to advance the reform of real estate development financing methods, driving a shift in real estate development enterprise financing from reliance on the creditworthiness of the entity to meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects. For each project, one bank or a banking syndicate will be designated as the lead bank. Funds from project development, construction, and sales will be deposited with the lead bank, which will ensure that the project company’s reasonable financing needs are met, forming a virtuous cycle mechanism where the lead bank and the project company share interests and risks. Closed management requirements for real estate project funds will be implemented. Before project delivery, it is strictly prohibited for investors to illegally withdraw or divert the project company’s sales and financing funds, and capital withdrawal or early dividend distribution is strictly prohibited. The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Guangzhou Housing Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)." It will optimize the supply scale and pace of commercial residential land to promote market supply-demand balance. High-quality urban design and "good housing" construction requirements will be incorporated into land transfer conditions to enhance residential building quality. Real estate development enterprises are encouraged to shift from "scale-oriented" to "quality-oriented" approaches, continuously optimize standards, and build more livable high-quality housing. Support for housing will be steadily advanced for newly introduced talent, newly employed university graduates, newly married or first-time childbearing families, families with multiple children, and families supporting elderly members, so as to reduce the burden of purchasing a first home. Increase policy support for "selling old and buying new" homes, and implement relevant tax incentives. Standardize real estate brokerage services, and guide all types of real estate agencies to operate in accordance with the law, compete fairly, and clearly mark prices. Strengthen oversight of existing-home transactions, and establish and improve regulatory systems for transaction funds for existing homes. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operation resulted in a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 76 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 426.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, a net withdrawal of 350.5 billion yuan was realized on the day. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.14. Markets await next week's Fed meeting for clues on the interest rate outlook and are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, with a 25.1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 28.9%, while the odds of a cumulative 25-bp hike are 55.7% and a 50-bp hike are 15.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Furthermore, according to Politico, House Republicans on Tuesday passed a procedural vote 241–211, clearing the way for a short-term government funding bill and the "budget reconciliation 3.0" package. The stopgap funding measure aims to keep the federal government operating through December, while the budget framework provides the basis for a $95 billion partisan policy package. House Republican leadership hopes to pass the temporary funding bill later Tuesday. The House is then expected to vote on the budget resolution on Wednesday. Republicans intend to use this budget framework to begin drafting and passing a third conservative policy bill this Congress without any Democratic support. Other Currencies: Driven by a weak yen and surging oil prices, Japan's import value was up 25.4% YoY in June to a record 11.3 trillion yen (approx. $69.25 billion). This gain exceeded the market's previous expectation of a 21% rise and marked the fastest pace since November 2022, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen (approx. $2.49 billion) in June, far above the forecast of 120 billion yen. Although crude oil imports fell 13.7% YoY in volume terms, their value soared 59.3%, with the yen-denominated unit price also hitting a record high, underscoring that current inflationary pressures are largely driven by exchange-rate factors rather than demand growth. This means that compared to possible short-term changes in oil demand, the yen's appreciation plays a more significant role in easing import cost pressure. On the export side, the resilience brought by AI-related data center demand provides the Bank of Japan with actual economic growth support that can offset inflation risks. This combination of factors suggests that the Bank of Japan is more likely to adopt a cautious, gradual rate hike path rather than a sudden sharp tightening. Currently, the market expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week, while still maintaining a hawkish policy bias. (Jin10 Data APP) The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that a latest survey result shows inflation remains the top economic concern for Australians, while a "fundamental gap" still exists in the public's understanding of how monetary policy works. The survey is part of the RBA's efforts to enhance transparency and respond to the 2023 independent review recommendations. Since early last year, the bank has conducted three rounds of surveys, collecting opinions from approximately 9,000 Australians, and uses the results to improve communication with the public. The survey results showed: "Public trust in the RBA is comparable to other Australian and international institutions and has remained stable since early 2025," although trust levels vary across different groups. "Those with higher trust levels tend to have lower inflation expectations, underscoring the importance of trust itself and also its key role in the transmission of monetary policy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of the UK June CPI MoM, UK June Retail Price Index MoM, and other data. Crude oil: As of 11:45, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI crude up 1.03% and Brent crude up 1.15%. Trump downplayed the possibility of immediate negotiations with Iran, and heightened US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher. The rise in oil prices directly exacerbated inflation concerns. (Wall Street Insights) Data: Last week, US crude oil inventories increased. API crude oil inventories for the week ending July 17: +2.603 million barrels, vs. expected -500,000 barrels and prior -564,000 barrels. API gasoline inventories for the week ending July 17: -1.379 million barrels, vs. expected -1.81 million barrels and prior -1.664 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►