Affected by the traditional consumption off-season and raw material price transmission, China’s deep-processed manganese products came under overall downward pressure this week. Products showed differentiated market performances due to distinct supply-demand fundamentals, with obvious linkage across the industrial chain.

In 1983, Goodenough and Thackeray developed lithium manganate (LiMn₂O₄, LMO) on the basis of the lithium cobalt oxide system. With a unique spinel structure and three-dimensional lithium-ion diffusion channels, LMO delivers excellent rate capability, along with simple production procedures and high safety performance. Its core advantage lies in abundant manganese resources and extremely low costs, which are far superior to cobalt-based precious materials, making LMO a key material for the cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries. After four decades of industrial iteration, LMO has been phased out of high-end passenger vehicle power batteries by ternary materials. However, relying on outstanding cost performance, it has firmly occupied segmented markets such as electric two-wheelers, power tools and low-speed electrical equipment. The industry currently presents a structural divergence, with tight supply of high-end modified LMO products and intense homogenized competition among low-end products. 1. Technical Origin: Distinct Performance Advantages and Incurable High-Temperature Defects LMO has a theoretical specific capacity of 148mAh/g and a practical mass-production capacity of around 120mAh/g, with a working voltage of approximately 4.0V. Japanese enterprises took the lead in commercializing LMO in the 1990s. Early manufacturers including Sanyo and Panasonic widely applied LMO to power tools and household devices that prioritize safety. In 2010, the Nissan Leaf adopted a modified LMO cathode system, becoming one of the early large-scale mass-produced pure electric vehicles. It entered the entry-level new energy vehicle market with its cobalt-free, high-safety and low-cost characteristics. Nevertheless, LMO has inherent technical bottlenecks, primarily weak high-temperature cycling stability. When the ambient temperature exceeds 55℃, manganese dissolution and disproportionation reactions easily occur, leading to rapid capacity decay. The dissolved manganese ions also damage the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film on the negative electrode, continuously impairing battery service life. The industry has adopted modification methods such as element doping and surface coating to optimize performance, which can only alleviate capacity attenuation rather than completely solve the problem. With the rapid popularization of high-energy-density ternary materials, LMO has gradually withdrawn from the mainstream passenger vehicle power battery track, and shifted to low-speed lithium batteries and consumer electronics fields that prioritize cost and safety over extreme energy density. 2. 2026 Market Status: Cost-Driven Pricing and Sustained Structural Differentiation Currently, LMO prices are highly correlated with lithium carbonate quotations, which account for 60% to 70% of the total production cost of LMO. Fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices directly drive synchronous adjustments in the LMO market. The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, while internal differentiation is prominent. High-end modified LMO products with long-cycle and high-voltage performance enjoy stable demand and tight supply. By contrast, ordinary low-end LMO products face severe homogenization and fierce market competition, squeezing profit margins of small and medium-sized manufacturers, most of whom maintain slim profits or break-even operations. The demand structure is clear and stable. Electric two-wheelers serve as the largest downstream application scenario, accounting for over 60% of total demand and forming the fundamental support of the LMO industry. Demand for power tools remains rigid and steady. Benefiting from high safety and low cost, LMO demand in small and medium-sized energy storage sectors is expanding steadily, becoming a major growth driver for the industry. Overall downstream demand maintains stable operation without significant fluctuations. 3. Market Outlook: Consolidate Segmented Market Foundation and Expand Manganese-Based Material Layout In the short term, LMO prices will continue to fluctuate in line with lithium carbonate trends and downstream restocking rhythms. High-end modified products are expected to maintain structural premiums due to high production and technical barriers. In the medium term, the industry pattern will continue to optimize. Leading enterprises will dominate the market relying on advantages in technology, production capacity and cost, while backward low-end capacity will be gradually eliminated, further increasing industrial concentration. In the long run, conventional LMO is unlikely to re-enter the high-end passenger vehicle power battery track, but its rigid demand in four core segmented fields including electric two-wheelers, low-speed vehicles, power tools and small-to-medium energy storage will remain solid. Meanwhile, the manganese-based industry keeps iterating. Manganese elements continue to penetrate the mainstream new energy market through lithium manganese iron phosphate and ternary materials. The overall importance of manganese-based materials in the lithium battery industrial chain continues to rise.

The domestic electrolytic manganese market has stabilized slightly after a minor decline recently, with a lingering weak and sluggish market sentiment. Although the price drop has slowed down without continuous sharp declines, market pessimism remains prevalent, and downward pressure is still prominent.

Recently, China's manganese-based battery materials market has been characterized by cost-driven divergence and gradual demand recovery. Battery-grade manganese sulfate and trimanganese tetroxide have strengthened on the back of rising raw material and freight costs; electrolytic manganese dioxide remains stable; and lithium manganate is steady amid volatile lithium carbonate prices, awaiting a demand rebound in April.

This week, China’s domestic manganese-based battery materials market has shown a differentiated operation trend. The price of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has slightly declined, the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide has slightly increased, and lithium manganate has maintained a weak balance of supply and demand.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, China’s manganese tetroxide market maintained a weak tone, characterized by sluggish trading, stable prices, and stalemated supply and demand. On the cost side, electrolytic manganese prices bottomed out at low levels with limited upward momentum. On the demand side, lithium manganate producers had completed pre-holiday restocking and focused on inventory digestion.

In late January 2026, China’s domestic lithium manganate market has fallen into a dilemma characterized by strong cost-side pressure and weak demand-side performance. The price of lithium carbonate, a core raw material, has kept fluctuating upward since the beginning of the month, directly driving up the production cost of lithium manganate. Meanwhile, downstream demand has been muted, and the market’s capacity to absorb cost increases remains insufficient, failing to digest the pressure from cost transmission.Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, lithium manganate prices have stayed in a weak and stable pattern, under persistent operational pressure.

In late January 2026, China’s domestic trimanganese tetroxide market presents a two-way game of rising cost pressure and steadily recovering demand. Sustained price increases of upstream raw materials such as electrolytic manganese and manganese sulfate have imposed heavy cost burdens on manufacturers. Meanwhile, rising prices of downstream lithium manganate, coupled with the release of pre-holiday restocking demand ahead of the Spring Festival, have provided solid support for the market.Under the mutual restraint of bullish and bearish factors, market prices have maintained stable operation, and the industry generally expects trimanganese tetroxide prices to stay largely flat before the Spring Festival.

Recycling Industry Events This Week (November. 10-14)

【Anhui Project for Annual Tiered Utilization of 100,000 Tons of Vehicle Power Batteries Lands】 Recently, the second environmental impact assessment public notice was released for the relocation and technical renovation project for the tiered utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries by a company in Anhui. The following is the announcement content: This project is a comprehensive recycling and utilization project for renewable resources. After the relocation and technical renovation, it will form an annual production scale for the recycling and utilization of 100,000 tons of new energy vehicle power batteries, with the comprehensive utilization scale remaining unchanged. According to the plan, the project will be constructed in two phases: the first phase with an annual recycling and utilization capacity of 40,000 tons, and the second phase with 60,000 tons of new energy vehicle power batteries. This includes 3,000 tons/year of lithium cobalt oxide batteries (individual units), 6,500 tons/year of ternary lithium-ion batteries, 4,000 tons/year of lithium iron phosphate batteries, 1,500 tons/year of lithium manganate batteries, 30,000 tons/year of cathode sheets (10,000 tons/year in the first phase), and 55,000 tons/year of anode sheets (15,000 tons/year in the first phase).