[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

SMM Nickel News, March 23: Macro and market news: (1) Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power stations would be destroyed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power stations were carried out, Iran would immediately take four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. (2) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. A range of monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), policy interest rates, and open market operations, would be used in a comprehensive manner to maintain ample liquidity. Spot market: On March 23, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated at highs during the session and closed the morning session at 134,810 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Nickel prices are currently in a phase of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued increases in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid bottom, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

According to SMM data, during the second half of the traditional "Golden March" peak consumption season (March 16 - March 20, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2605) trended lower from its highs under the dual pressure of macroeconomic headwinds and tepid actual demand. By the close on March 20, the contract retreated to 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt), down 125 yuan/mt (approx. $18/mt) from last Friday's close of 14,275 yuan/mt (approx. $2,069/mt). The market's core feature this week was the marginal weakening of previous bullish factors: international macro signals tilted hawkish, raw material upward momentum stalled, and the substantive recovery of end-user demand during the peak season remained lackluster, prompting a rational pullback in futures prices after hitting resistance. Macro-Economy: Divergence Between Global Hawkishness and Chinese Resilience On the macroeconomic front, a significant divergence emerged between global and Chinese economic data and policy directions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve ushered in a "Super Central Bank Week," deciding to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Influenced by developments in the Middle East and sticky inflation, the Fed's latest dot plot—despite maintaining expectations for one rate cut this year and next—revealed a distinctly hawkish tilt. Market bets on rate cuts for the entire year were slashed to less than 11 basis points. The dashed hopes for loose dollar liquidity weighed on the overall valuation of the base metals sector. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released January-February economic data showing a stable start to the year. Value-added industrial output grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, though real estate development investment still fell by 11.1% YoY. This structural divergence indicates a certain resilience in Chinese manufacturing, but the drag from the property sector continues to cap the upward elasticity of end-user consumption. Fundamentals: Destocking Continues, But Spot Market Feels Lukewarm Fundamentally, social inventories maintained a destocking trend, but the spot market still lacked vigor. The latest SMM data shows social inventories falling further to 979,300 mt this week, a decrease of 18,800 mt from last week's 998,100 mt. The continuous decline in inventories sent a positive industry signal, stabilizing market sentiment to some extent. However, the spot market still felt cold. Overall quotes remained stable, and end-user procurement strictly followed a just-in-time purchasing model, failing to exhibit the across-the-board boom expected during a peak season and leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, although the destocking trend is preserved, constrained by high absolute inventory levels and the anticipated supply increment from March steel mill resumptions, traders are maintaining a steady pace of shipments without resorting to aggressive panic selling. Costs: High-Level Loosening Pauses Cost-Driven Logic The cost side also showed signs of loosening from its highs. As of March 20, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes ended their previous unilateral rally, edging down to 1,084 yuan/mtu (approx. $157/mtu), while high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,650 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,254/50 mt). With the pullback in futures prices and the sustained caution of steel mills regarding high-priced raw materials, NPI faced resistance in breaching the 1,100 yuan mark. The stabilization of raw material prices at high levels, coupled with slight price concessions, has temporarily alleviated the upward pressure on steel mills' cost centers, bringing the previously strong "cost-driven" logic to a temporary halt. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week entered a "deep water" zone where peak season expectations are repeatedly tested against reality. The Fed's hawkish stance pressured macro sentiment, while the "tepid" state of just-in-time end-user demand left fundamentals lacking intrinsic upward momentum. However, two consecutive weeks of steady destocking and stable spot quotes have effectively limited the depth of the market's correction. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to seek a balance between "high inventories + supply increments" and "continuous destocking + just-in-time demand floor." The key focus will be whether the destocking slope reverses due to concentrated arrivals at steel mills. In the short term, the most-traded SS contract is expected to shift into a broad range-bound trend.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

Copper prices fluctuated downward this week. At the start of the week, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts continued to cool, and the market even began to price in possible rate hikes, weakening expectations for macro liquidity and putting copper prices under pressure, causing them to pull back. Mid-week, after the US Fed kept rates unchanged, the US PPI annual rate rose more than expected to 3.4, further weighing on market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year. According to market sources, traders no longer priced in any US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on easing expectations faded further. The continued escalation in US-Iran tensions fueled safe-haven sentiment, while elevated oil prices intensified concerns over inflation and economic weakness. The stronger US dollar index also suppressed copper prices. In terms of fund positioning, the futures were mainly marked by long liquidation, with risk-off sentiment among funds rising and willingness to take profits at high levels increasing. Overall, macro headwinds dominated market sentiment, and copper prices came under pressure and corrected lower. Fundamentals side, copper concentrates TC continued to pull back. This week, the imported copper concentrates index was reported at -$67.32/mt, further lower WoW and at a historical low, with smelting pressure continuing to mount. In copper cathode, the continued downward shift in the center of copper prices significantly stimulated restocking demand from downstream enterprises, and spot inventory showed a rapid destocking trend. The import window remained open, but actual subsequent inflows of imported cargo still need further observation. According to SMM, orders at most downstream enterprises surged, with generally strong enthusiasm for buying the dip. Some sectors were notably boosted by the pullback in copper prices, and order performance improved. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic remains unchanged. Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, intertwined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, will continue to weigh on copper prices. However, fundamental support for copper prices is gradually strengthening. Faster destocking and stronger downstream restocking willingness will limit downside room, and copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $11,700/mt and $12,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 91,000 yuan/mt and 97,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, as downstream restocking continues and inventory is drawn down, spot premiums are expected to continue to recover, but inflows of imported cargo and suppliers selling on strength will cap upside room. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Geopolitical Premiums Persist, Aluminum Prices Remained Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and was expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China, meanwhile, was in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, with upward momentum clearly weaker than outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to remain fluctuating at highs in the short term.

Structurally, by end-February, Russian aluminum's share in LME available inventory rose to 60% from 58% in January, while circulation of non-Russian aluminum remained persistently scarce. Spot buying from Europe and Asia flooded into LME warehouses in a concentrated manner, further accelerating inventory depletion. Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and the Back structure is expected to persist in the short term. In China, however, the market remained in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, and upward momentum was clearly weaker than outside China. Amid diverging domestic and overseas drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.