In April 2026, China's secondary lead production showed a pattern of MoM rebound and YoY decline. Monthly secondary lead production was up 12.72% MoM and down 24.61% YoY; secondary refined lead production was up 8.7% MoM and down 33.14% YoY significantly.

Spot market: SMM #1 lead ingot prices remained stable from the beginning of the week through mid-week, then declined toward the weekend. Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking willingness was subdued, with only sporadic rigid-demand purchases. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall spot order trading was sluggish. By region, Henan was dominated by long-term contract deliveries, with traders offering discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract, and transactions at high prices were lackluster. In Hunan, spot order premiums narrowed from 0-30 yuan/mt to 0-20 yuan/mt, with some traders making shipments at slight discounts. Jiangxi quotes remained firm, with premiums pulling back from 150 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. In Guangdong, ex-factory premiums continued to decline throughout the week, narrowing from 70-80 yuan/mt to 30-50 yuan/mt. Overall, lead prices were stable early in the week before weakening. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm gradually softened with some price concessions, but downstream rigid demand weakened ahead of the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and spot cargo transactions were mediocre overall.

SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

SMM, April 30: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt intraday. Prices moved sideways within 16,605-16,665 yuan/mt in early trading, dipped slightly in later trading to a low of 16,575 yuan/mt, and rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,630 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt or 0.69%. Lead prices were under pressure and in the doldrums before the Labour Day holiday, with sluggish trading and weak demand. In the early post-holiday period, primary lead inventory buildup and warrant transfers will continue to weigh on prices. From mid-to-late May, as primary lead maintenance, sustained secondary lead production cuts, and sharp import declines take effect, supply contraction will gradually emerge, providing rebound momentum for lead prices. SMM expects lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, due to the Labour Day holiday, China's SHFE and other exchanges will be closed on May 4-5; the LME outside China will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday. Key macro economic data includes US April ADP employment, US April unemployment rate, and US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, which are about to be released. Additionally, according to the latest news, the first batch of US tariff refunds will be issued around May 11, indicating a loosening of tariff policies, while we need to continue monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations. LME lead side, LME lead inventory decline slowed down, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight discount for nearly a week, indicating strong support for lead prices. The impact of Middle East events on shipping has not yet been resolved, and spot supply in Southeast Asia remains tight, especially with high-grade lead ingot premiums at elevated levels. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating and await new factors. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,935-1,975/mt next week. SHFE lead side, downstream enterprises will be on concentrated holiday during Labour Day, while lead smelter maintenance or production shutdowns increased in April-May. However, the concentrated short-term consumption reduction still poses a significant risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Combined with new delivery factors in May, lead prices may come under pressure and weaken before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,450-16,800 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters are undergoing concentrated maintenance, lead ingot supply is tightening regionally, and the import window for lead ingots has closed, reducing imported lead inflows. If lead prices weaken subsequently, spot discounts (against futures) in some regions will narrow, and secondary lead may even see an inversion (i.e., premiums against SMM #1 lead average price). After the holiday, downstream enterprises will resume production, but due to mediocre order performance, producers will maintain a produce-based-on-sales approach.

This week was the week before the Labour Day holiday. The lead-acid battery market had a strong holiday atmosphere. Pre-holiday purchasing by dealers showed no significant changes. However, due to sluggish consumption in the end-use market, some dealers intended to offer sales promotions on batteries during the Labour Day holiday, while producers made no price adjustments due to cost factors. In addition, most producers planned to take holidays, and pre-holiday stocking demand in the lead market was limited. Combined with lead prices staying high, spot lead trading activity weakened WoW.

SMM April 30: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session to a high of $1,963/mt, then moved sideways between $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt during the European session, before shifting to fluctuate downward, eventually closing low at $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Futures initially dipped briefly before rebounding slightly, but encountered resistance above. The overall trend then shifted to fluctuate downward, touching a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, finally closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%; open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery manufacturers' periodic restocking largely concluded last week, with downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through lacking momentum and overall demand remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or shutdowns, with spot cargo continuing to tighten; meanwhile, ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, and domestic primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,963/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead moved sideways within $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt, then shifted to fluctuate downward, eventually closing at a low of $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices briefly dipped before rebounding slightly in the early session, but encountered resistance above. Subsequently, the overall trend shifted to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, eventually closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Macro front: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell will remain as governor. Warsh's Fed Chairman nomination passed a Senate committee vote. Trump: now is a good time to cut interest rates; Powell stays at the Fed because no one else wants him. Trump: believes the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts will end at roughly the same time; negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone, very conveniently. Iran stated that if the US continues to seize ships, it will respond with "unprecedented military action." Putin proposed a "Victory Day" temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and put forward suggestions on Iran's nuclear program; Trump suggested a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. World Gold Council: global central banks increased gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year in Q1. Liu Haoling was appointed as CSRC vice chairman. China discovered 13 new 100-million-mt oil fields and 26 new 100-billion-m³ gas fields. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead maintained narrow-range fluctuations. Ahead of the holiday, suppliers actively made shipments, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce, with cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters as the main source. Some quotations were lowered from the previous day, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -20~+30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while a few regions maintained quotations at premiums of +100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, regional tight supply persisted. Secondary lead smelters in North China, Southwest China and other regions made shipments following the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises successively went on holiday, procurement demand weakened notably, inquiries were also scarce, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: As of April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 268,700 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery factories' periodic restocking largely concluded last week. Downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was weak, and overall demand remained subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or halted operations, and spot cargo availability in the market continued to tighten; meanwhile, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, and China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are highly likely to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 29: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices dipped slightly at the opening, touching a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Subsequently, supported by tightening regional secondary lead supply, futures strengthened in a fluctuating manner, reaching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt. Near the close, gains narrowed and pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,745 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.3%, recording a small bullish candlestick. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, battery makers had largely completed their periodic restocking last week, and downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was insufficient, with overall demand remaining weak. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters cut production or halted operations, and spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the weak supply-demand dynamics in the lead market were prominent, and lead prices may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.