SMM July 31 news: This week, secondary crude lead prices drifted lower, and suppliers' willingness to sell was weak. The decline in lead prices intensified smelting losses, coupled with sluggish orders from downstream alloy enterprises, leading to lackluster procurement demand and sluggish market transactions. Suppliers of imported crude lead, whose profits fell short of expectations, chose to hold back from selling, and the currently arriving cargoes were mostly orders placed from May to July. It is expected that demand will be hard to improve next week, with secondary crude lead prices maintaining a subdued consolidation. Focus will be on tracking futures lead prices and smelters' production cut progress.

SMM July 31: This week, scrap battery market showed mixed performance. EV battery prices were mainly down, while prices for other categories remained largely stable. Only a few producers raised flooded battery prices during the week. Smelters' losses-driven push for lower prices and suppliers' holding back from selling formed a stalemate. Even when lead prices rebounded, it was difficult to transmit to the raw material side. Currently, battery enterprises showed weak purchasing enthusiasm. Secondary lead finished product inventories rose while operating rates declined, leading to limited demand for scrap batteries; It is expected that next week, waste lead-acid battery prices will continue to consolidate on a subdued note, with a possibility of lower buying prices. Tight supply will limit the decline. Keep monitoring lead prices and end-use consumption in August.

SMM, July 31: Views in the secondary refined lead market diverged further. Upstream suppliers held prices firm aggressively, while downstream enterprises called for price cuts and waited to purchase at lower levels. The price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead narrowed, highlighting the purchasing advantage of primary lead. Price expectations between buyers and sellers differed widely, spot negotiations were at a stalemate, and overall market transactions remained sluggish. This week, mainstream transaction prices for secondary refined lead were at a discount of 75-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, scrap battery prices fell only slightly, widening the loss range for enterprises. As of July 31, 2026, the comprehensive theoretical profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -623 yuan/mt, while that for small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -801 yuan/mt. If lead prices remain in the doldrums next week, the premium quotation range for spot orders of secondary refined lead against the SMM #1 lead average price will expand, and shipment volumes will continue to decline.

In the spot market, this week (July 27–31, 2026), SMM #1 lead prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note. The weekly average price fell 185 yuan/mt WoW, and the overall center moved lower. At month-end, downstream enterprises were less motivated to purchase, and some large enterprises met production needs solely through long-term contracts, with scant replenishment from spot orders. As lead prices dropped, maintenance and production cut plans among primary lead and secondary lead smelters increased, and suppliers' willingness to sell fell in tandem. In the spot market, transactions shifted from quotes at discounts to premiums compared to the start of the week. Specifically, mainstream electrolytic lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory; secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of 0–20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with a few enterprises at a premium of 125 yuan/mt. The shift in the spot premium structure was mainly because smelters held back from selling at lower prices after the lead price fell, while suppliers actively shipped inventory to delivery warehouses, alleviating in-factory inventory pressure and tightening available supply in the market.

This week, the lead-acid battery market continued its off-season trend. Coupled with persistently weakening lead prices, risk-aversion sentiment ran high in the industry. Dealers purchased only as needed and remained cautious about expectations for the traditional peak season in August. Producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises maintained production cuts. Even as lead prices kept falling, downstream enterprises did not engage in concentrated bargain-hunting to build inventories. Some large enterprises met their production needs solely through long-term contracts, and spot market transactions remained sluggish.

It is learned that as of July 30, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 24,400 mt, a decrease of 5,900 mt WoW. This week, production at primary lead smelters remained stable with a slight increase, while downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and spot lead was generally traded at a discount, with the spread between futures and spot prices around 150-200 yuan/mt. Some suppliers shifted inventories to delivery warehouses, helping to ease in-factory inventory pressure on smelters. Next week, as we enter August and a new round of futures delivery approaches, with lead prices continuing to consolidate at lows, suppliers will still mainly focus on hedging and delivery. It is expected that more in-factory lead ingots will be transferred to delivery warehouses.

Next week, key macroeconomic data include the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, unemployment rate, and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls. As recent cooling inflation has dampened rate hike expectations, the US dollar index consolidates around the $100 level, with market awaiting guidance from employment data. Additionally, Iran rejected a proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US announced the completion of a new round of military operations targeting Iranian objectives, reigniting market concerns over easing geopolitical conflicts. For LME lead, LME lead inventory continued its downward trend, while LME lead Cash-3M contango widened further, with the latest quote at -$41.15/mt. Currently, geopolitical conflict risks persist outside China; lead consumption in the Middle East shows no recovery expectations, while lead consumption in Southeast Asia is steadily rising with spot premiums climbing again. Lead ingot (Pb≥99.99%) CIF premium was quoted at a super high $240/mt, which will support an upward shift in lead price center to some extent. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,925/mt. For SHFE lead, there are no expectations for improvement in lead consumption in August yet. Cautious procurement by downstream enterprises and accumulating lead ingot inventory have dragged lead prices to consolidate on a subdued note. Meanwhile, increased maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters, along with supply tightening expectations, have narrowed spot lead discounts, providing strong support for lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,500-15,850 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,350-15,600 yuan/mt. Entering August, a new round of delivery for SHFE lead is on the agenda, with lead ingots moving from smelter warehouses to social warehouses. Market supply of circulating cargo is expected to decrease, and suppliers' willingness to sell at discounts may further decline. If lead prices continue to consolidate at lows, spot premiums for both primary and secondary lead are expected to persist.

SMM July 31: As of July 30, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 34,000 mt, up about 10,000 mt MoM. Imported crude lead traded in May arrived in a concentrated manner recently after a two-month shipping period, and smelters began refining processing, pushing finished product inventories significantly higher. Meanwhile, the price spread between secondary refined lead and primary lead continued to narrow, and downstream users prioritized purchasing primary lead, with secondary lead transactions remaining weak; compounded by lead prices consolidating on a weak note, smelters were trapped in losses and their willingness to sell proactively was low. SMM expects that secondary lead smelter inventories will stay high next week, but with expectations for industry production cuts, the room for further inventory buildup will be relatively limited.

SMM July 31: During July 24-30, 2026, the SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead across four provinces was 28.6%, down 0.9 ppt WoW. In Jiangsu, smelters that resumed production operated at low rates, while smelters in Inner Mongolia remained suspended; Henan smelters' operations were dragged down by losses and raw material shortages, with some halting production; some Anhui enterprises ramped up production after replenishing raw materials, leading to a rebound in the regional operating rate. Next week, some Anhui smelters plan to halt production. Continued tracking is needed for raw material arrivals in Henan and Jiangsu and the impact of lead prices on smelters’ production decisions.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Market Supply and Demand Both Subdued Yet Inventory Buildup Risk Persists; Short-term Lead Prices Will Remain Under Pressure] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, to analyze and study current economic situation and economic work. Recently, lead prices have continued to consolidate on a subdued note, with suppliers' hedging willingness strengthening and some lead ingots being gradually transferred to delivery warehouses...