SMM, June 18: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it fell first and then rose. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt. It gave back part of its gains late in the session and finally closed at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it briefly touched a high of 16,520 yuan/mt as bears reduced positions. Affected by downstream holiday plans for the Dragon Boat Festival, the absence of lead ingot consumption limited the upside in lead prices. SHFE lead moved sideways and finally closed at 16,470 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0. On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, coupled with the impact of mid-year account closing, some enterprises also stopped shipments or payments. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, and some enterprises suspended trading. On the supply side, the number of enterprises undergoing maintenance increased. In addition, with delivery-related factors being implemented, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup were limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream resumption after the holiday on lead price trends.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,979.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, and then after entering the European session, it fell first before recovering. During the session, it hit a low of $1,973/mt and a high of $1,987/mt, before giving back some gains near the close, eventually settling at $1,985/mt, up 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,505 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 16,520 yuan/mt in early trading as bears reduced positions. However, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday-related downstream shutdown plans, the lack of lead ingot consumption capped gains, and SHFE lead moved sideways in a narrow range before closing at 16,470 yuan/mt, unchanged. On the macro front: The US Fed removed its bias toward cutting interest rates, and the dot plot showed nine officials projected rate hikes this year. Inventory at the largest US oil storage hub plummeted to critically low levels. US retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, above the market expectation of 0.5%. The People's Bank of China established a repo facility for overseas central bank-type institutions. The PBOC also optimized the mechanism for temporary overnight reverse repo and repo operations in the open market. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Implementing the Employment-First Strategy." Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rose sharply, and suppliers sold cargoes along with the rally, but there was considerable divergence in selling interest, with some widening their discounts. Mainstream production area electrolytic lead quotations ranged from discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In secondary lead, smelter losses narrowed, but more smelters underwent maintenance, so market supplies were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works, with a few deals negotiated at discounts of 100 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises' risk-off sentiment subsided, but they remained cautious in purchasing high-priced lead, and most held a wait-and-see stance. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, downstream enterprises planned to shut down, further dampening trading activity. Inventory: On June 18, LME lead inventory fell by 25 mt to 303,650 mt. As of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, combined with mid-year account closing effects that led some enterprises to suspend shipments or payments, wait-and-see sentiment was heavy and some transactions were halted. With more smelters undergoing maintenance on the supply side and the delivery factor already materialized, expectations for post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup are limited. Attention should be paid to the pace of downstream restarts after the holiday and its impact on lead price movements.

SMM, June 17 – During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,415 yuan/mt, moved higher in early session volatility to reach a high of 16,490 yuan/mt, and later moved sideways within the range of 16,435–16,485 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,470 yuan/mt, recording a three-day winning streak, up 160 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.98%. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday was approaching, downstream processing enterprises were gradually arranging shutdowns for the break, and spot trade sentiment further cooled. Supply-side disruptions continued to emerge, with secondary lead smelters adding maintenance capacity; this week also saw some primary lead smelters resume production, leaving overall supply highly uncertain. The current supply-demand fundamentals, with both sides weakening, capped the rise in lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are based on publicly available information and market communication, processed by SMM using its internal database models, and are for reference only; they do not constitute any decision-making advice.

SMM, June 17: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt and fluctuated downward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, it dipped to $1,962/mt. On the eve of the US Fed’s interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead released pressure and rebounded. It touched a high of $1,983.5/mt late in the session and finally closed at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt in early trading. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt late in the session. The KDJ opening widened, and it finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. Transactions of cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters weakened, while secondary lead smelters added new maintenance, leaving uncertainty on the supply side. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement. Some enterprises, as their lead ingot inventory was sufficient for just-in-time production and supplemented by pick-up goods under long-term contract, stopped spot order purchases. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, beware of the drag on lead prices from a market with both weak supply and weak demand.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, fluctuating downward during Asian trading hours; entering European trading hours, it dipped to a low of $1,962/mt. Ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead shook off pressure and rallied, hitting a high of $1,983.5/mt at the tail end before finally settling at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, initially touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it then touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt at the tail end, with the KDJ gap widening, and finally settled at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. On the macro front: Trump: ready to let the Russian oil sanctions waiver expire and lapse. World Gold Council survey: more central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years; the central bank decided to suspend the reduction of bond purchases from April next year. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the safe and free passage of the Strait of Hormuz serves the interests of all parties. China Central Depository & Clearing Co.: plans to reduce the settlement service fee for cash bond trades executed by market makers through market-making from 20% off to 25% off. National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5%; from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.4%. NBS: in May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% MoM; second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4% MoM. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to hold up well, with suppliers' quotes remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, transactions for EXW cargoes from some smelters weakened. Mainstream electrolytic lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some even at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters showed divergent selling intentions. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with some mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts or receiving earlier-arriving cargoes. Spot market trading was sluggish. Inventory: on June 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,175 mt to 303,675 mt. As of June 15, social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: Transactions for primary lead EXW cargoes weakened. Secondary lead smelters experienced new maintenance, keeping supply-side uncertainties in place. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises stopped spot procurement as their lead ingot inventory was adequate for just-in-time production, supplemented by long-term contract cargo pick-ups. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, beware of the drag on lead prices from a weak supply-demand situation.

SMM June 16 News: Today, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,215 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily average in early trading, trended higher during the session to touch a high of 16,360 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly near the end of the session, and finally closed at 16,310 yuan/mt, recording a two-day winning streak, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.43%. Boosted by a broad rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, SHFE lead continued to move higher today. Supply side, primary and secondary smelters have both production stoppages and resumptions, with bullish and bearish factors tugging at each other; demand side, downstream purchase willingness remained weak, with purchases only for essential restocking, and spot lead transactions were sluggish. SMM lead ingot inventories across five regions edged up slightly yesterday. After the delivery of materials is absorbed, inventory buildup pressure will ease marginally, and lead prices have support for a recovery in the short term. Data Sourcing Disclaimer: All data, except for publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are provided for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.

SMM June 16 news: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt and fluctuated upward during the Asian session. After entering the European session, due to a decline in LME lead inventory, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains toward the close, and finally closed at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,210 yuan/mt early in the session, then edged up to touch a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream buying interest on dips picked up. Influenced by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their relatively high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters, and currently, smelters in Henan are still shipping goods based on order schedules. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract was settled, with suppliers concentrating shipments to delivery warehouses, and social inventory increased as expected. At present, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, and supply remains tight with uncertainties. SMM believes that after the delivery is completed, the pressure of lead ingot inventory buildup will gradually ease, and the upward resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at a low of $1,965/mt, fluctuating upward during Asian trading hours; entering the European session, it touched a high of $1,981/mt, then gave back some gains towards the close, eventually ending at $1,968.5/mt, up 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,240 yuan/mt, dipping to a session low of 16,210 yuan/mt early on before edging up to a high of 16,315 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,265 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a 43-year low. Middle East situation – Trump: Will allow Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment. May or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. The strait will fully open on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped sharply while the stock market is rising. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice to launch a three-year campaign to tackle energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries. SAFE: In May, foreign-invested enterprises' dividend and profit distribution expenditures increased seasonally, and foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds overall. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed course and rebounded, with suppliers selling along with the market. Some offered wider discounts from last Friday, but some smelters, with low inventory, remained relatively firm in their pricing. Mainstream production region primary lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary lead, smelters had divergent attitudes toward selling. Secondary refined lead quotations against SMM #1 lead were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt, EXW. Downstream enterprises mostly turned cautious, with fewer inquiries; some temporarily focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions weakened. Inventory: On June 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 mt to 304,850 mt; as of June 15, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from June 8 and an increase of 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast today: Last week, lead prices declined, and downstream dip-buying demand warmed up. Affected by secondary lead smelters holding back from selling and their high quotes, purchasing demand shifted significantly to EXW primary lead cargoes. At present, Henan smelters are still shipping on order. Yesterday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract completed delivery, with suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses in a concentrated manner, and social inventory increased as expected. Currently, both primary and secondary lead enterprises face maintenance and raw material shortages, with supply tight and uncertain. SMM believes that after the delivery, lead ingot inventory buildup pressure will gradually ease, and upside resistance to lead prices is expected to weaken.

SMM, June 15 – The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,115 yuan/mt intraday, fluctuating upward initially to hit a high of 16,290 yuan/mt. Prices moved sideways in a range of 16,230-16,285 yuan/mt during midday, and futures pulled back slightly in the afternoon, trading at 16,210-16,255 yuan/mt, before closing at 16,240 yuan/mt, up 185 yuan/mt or 1.15% from the previous trading day. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz reopened for navigation, and the easing of geopolitical risks drove non-ferrous metals higher across the board today. Supply side, domestic primary and secondary lead enterprises saw mixed production changes, with the overall supply landscape relatively unchanged. Inventory side, LME lead inventory and SMM social inventory across five regions continued their pullback trend, though the destocking pace remained slow. Despite higher lead prices intraday, downstream end-use consumption remained weak, market wait-and-see sentiment increased, and enterprises' inquiry and purchase willingness was generally low. Overall, short-term lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Intraday, the SHFE lead 2606 contract closed at 16,190 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 16,130 yuan/mt, open interest of 4,360 lots, delivery volume of 21,800 mt, and warrant inventory of 63,201 mt, achieving a smooth delivery. Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not as a basis for decision-making.

SMM, June 15: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during the Asian session, hitting a low of $1,947.5/mt; after entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touched a high of $1,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,035 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then moved sideways, touched a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable; after lead prices fell, downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand; and, considering the potential mid-year book closing and inventory check in late June, some downstream enterprises bought in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases, and supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both declined, easing smelters' shipment pressure. In particular, secondary lead smelters, suffering severe losses, showed limited willingness to sell. Spot lead is expected to continue selling at a small premium (over SMM #1 lead). If SHFE lead falls again, the possibility of spot lead trading above futures cannot be ruled out.