This week, lead smelters still indicated that lead concentrate TCs had yet to see a substantive rebound. However, market quotes for silver-bearing lead concentrates with negative TCs had already decreased significantly. Smelters generally remained on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Coupled with weak fundamentals in the refined lead market, smelters showed low willingness to stock up on raw materials. Silver prices fluctuated within a range and consolidated. After bullish sentiment cooled, apart from slight reductions in the highest quotes for certain silver concentrates or high-silver lead ore with silver content above 2,000 g/mt in physical content, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with other silver content levels generally remained stable.

This article explains the 2026 revision of Vietnam's Mineral Law, including adjustments to mineral classification, optimization of mining permit rules, and enhancements to mineral control. These changes may have a significant impact on mining enterprises, particularly those involved in metallic mining activities in Vietnam, possibly affecting areas such as business operations, policy and tax compliance, upstream mining, and open new opportunities in mineral recycling business.

According to SMM, both supply and demand in the lead concentrate market declined in February. Smelters in Hunan and Yunnan suspended raw material procurement offers due to maintenance shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday. Some producers adopted a cautious purchasing approach towards silver in silver-bearing lead ores, fearing a price decline. The short-term unilateral bullish sentiment for silver has significantly faded. The payable indicator for silver contained in lead concentrates remained stable in the near term. Should silver prices enter a downward trend, smelters may consider negotiating a lower coefficient. Although extreme offers, where smelters actively reduce TCs to "snap up" silver-bearing lead concentrate raw materials, have almost disappeared after the holiday, a few small-scale, low-silver lead mines slightly increased lead concentrate TCs to hedge against silver price downside risks. However, smelters generally indicated that it remains difficult to raise mainstream lead concentrate TC offers in March.

During the week of February 22 to February 26, 2026, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 51.47%, up 1.14 percentage points WoW from the rate during the Chinese New Year holiday week, but down 8.24 percentage points WoW from the pre-holiday rate.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include the US February ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February ADP employment figures, and China's official February Manufacturing PMI; additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book. Meanwhile, overseas geopolitical tensions remain prominent, with uncertainties in US-Iran conflicts fueling strong market risk-off sentiment. On the LME lead front, overseas lead inventory surged by over 50,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday. Although stocks declined post-holiday, the high inventory base continued to significantly suppress lead prices, preventing them from breaking above $2,000/mt. Recently, widespread power outages in the US due to winter storms boosted heating demand, driving natural gas prices higher. This, to some extent, increased smelting costs for lead ore and lead ingots, providing short-term support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade between $1,950-2,000/mt next week. For SHFE lead, post-holiday inventory buildup in the lead market was severe, with stocks rising simultaneously at smelters and social warehouses, becoming a major drag on prices. Notably, scrap battery prices rose steadily after the holiday, widening losses for secondary lead producers and prompting some smelters to delay resumption plans, which will ease future lead ingot inventory pressure. Meanwhile, as downstream enterprises resume operations, focus will be on lead consumption recovery digesting lead inventories. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is forecast to fluctuate between 16,650-17,000 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,500-17,500 yuan/mt. Next week, lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to largely resume production, and with pre-holiday lead ingot inventories gradually being consumed, rigid demand restocking is anticipated. On the supply side, secondary lead smelters delayed resumption and face significant losses, limiting spot discounts for secondary refined lead. For primary lead, supplies will re-enter the market after delivery next week, and with high smelter inventories, spot discounts may widen.

The domestic supply of lead concentrates remains tight. After the price adjustment of imported ore with a Pb60TC, the market has seen a situation where prices are quoted but there is little actual trading. Some traders have quoted prices for silver-lead ore in the range of -$60 to -$80 per dry metric ton (dmt), and smelters are adopting a cautious stance with low purchase intentions. In the domestic market, the routine maintenance of some smelters in late June and the increase in production at lead-zinc ore projects in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other regions have slightly alleviated the supply deficit pressure of lead concentrates in some local areas. Smelters in multiple regions, including Inner Mongolia and Henan, have not shown any intention to adjust the domestic Pb50TC prices. However, the expected insufficient supply of imported ore, combined with the recent tight supply of other lead-bearing materials and crude lead, is expected to persist, and there is no anticipated rebound in lead concentrate TCs in the short term. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates, despite silver prices reaching new highs in June, smelters generally indicate that there is no room for further increases in the silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates after several rounds of price hikes. The silver pricing coefficient in various types of silver-bearing lead concentrates has remained unchanged for the time being. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

The stock price of Xingye Yinxi Mining saw a significant increase on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. As of 9:59 a.m. on June 3, Xingye Yinxi Mining was up 4.16%, trading at 13.78 yuan per share. In an announcement on the evening of June 2, Xingye Yinxi Mining stated that Xiwuqimuqin Banner Budun Yingen Mining Co., Ltd. (Budun Yingen Mining) is a controlled subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Xingye Gold Smelting Group Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder of Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. On December 30, 2024, the company signed a "Trusteeship Agreement" with Xingye Group, under which Xingye Group entrusted Budun Yingen Mining to the company for operation and management. On May 30, 2025, Budun Yingen Mining received a "Reply on the Review and Filing of Mineral Resource Reserves for the Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" (Xi Ziran Zi Chu Bei Zi (2025) No. 006) from the Xilingol League Natural Resources Bureau. After review, the relevant materials for the review and filing of mineral resource reserves of Budun Yingen Mining were found to comply with relevant regulations and were approved for review and filing. The specific situation is as follows: According to the "Review Opinion on the Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" (Xi Ziran Zi Chu Ping Zi (2025) No. 006), through this verification of resource reserves, as of January 31, 2025, the cumulative identified ore quantity of silver mine resources was 70.325 million mt, with a metal content of 11,114 mt and an average grade of Ag 158.07 g/t. This includes: measured resources with an ore quantity of 14.243 million mt, a metal content of 3,546 mt, and an average grade of Ag 248.95 g/t; indicated resources with an ore quantity of 22.512 million mt, a metal content of 3,573 mt, and an average grade of Ag 158.74 g/t; and inferred resources with an ore quantity of 33.57 million mt, a metal content of 3,995 mt, and an average grade of Ag 119.05 g/t. Through this verification of resource reserves, as of January 31, 2025, the identified associated resources of Pb, Zn, Ga, and Cd were as follows: Pb ore quantity of 39.571 million mt with a metal content of 95,643 mt; Zn ore quantity of 59.565 million mt with a metal content of 180,818 mt; Ga ore quantity of 70.271 million mt with a metal content of 3,603 mt; and Cd ore quantity of 10.913 million mt with a metal content of 1,092 mt. The average grades of these associated metals were Pb 0.24%, Zn 0.30%, Ga 0.0051%, and Cd 0.0100%, respectively. Regarding the increase in reserves after this review and filing, the announcement from Xingye Yinxi Mining indicates that the most recent report for Budun Yingen Mining was the "Verification Report on Silver Mine Resource Reserves in the Budunwula Mining Area, Xiwuqimuqin Banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region" compiled in March 2024. Upon comparison, this resource reserve verification indicates an increase of 65.316 million mt in ore volume and 10,273.1 mt in silver metal content compared to the most recent previous report on silver mine resources. For associated elements: Pb ore volume increased by 34.998 million mt, with a metal content increase of 84,142 mt; Zn ore volume increased by 55.033 million mt, with a metal content increase of 158,441 mt; Cd ore volume increased by 6.008 million mt, with a metal content increase of 601 mt; Ga ore volume increased by 65.422 million mt, with a metal content increase of 3,381 mt. Xingye Silver & Tin disclosed its Q1 2025 report on April 28, showing that in Q1, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.149 billion yuan, up 50.37% YoY; and a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 374 million yuan, up 63.22% YoY. Xingye Silver & Tin's Q1 report indicates that the current period's operating revenue increased by 50.37% compared to the previous period, operating costs increased by 51.55%, taxes and surcharges increased by 59.56%. The main reasons are the increase in production and sales volume of the company's main mineral products and the YoY increase in product selling prices during the reporting period. The current period's operating profit increased by 61.99% compared to the previous period, total profit increased by 63.25%, income tax expenses increased by 65.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders increased by 63.22%. The main reasons are the increase in production and sales volume of the company's main mineral products, the YoY increase in product selling prices, and the increase in operating revenue during the reporting period. Other important matters announced by Xingye Silver & Tin in its Q1 report include: 1. The company's acquisition of 85% equity in Yubang Mining : The company acquired 85% equity in Chifeng Yubang Mining Co., Ltd., held by Guocheng Mining Co., Ltd., Li Zhenshui, and Li Ruiyang, for a total of 2.388 billion yuan using its own funds and self-raised funds. On January 6, 2025, the company held its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025, which approved this transaction. On January 14, 2025, the equity transfer was completed with the industrial and commercial change registration procedures at the market supervision and administration department. Since then, the company has held 85% equity in Yubang Mining, which has become a controlled subsidiary of the company and is included in the company's consolidated financial statements. 2. Approval obtained for the 2.97 million mt expansion project of the subsidiary Yinman Mining : In January 2025, Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, obtained the "Approval from the Development and Reform Commission of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region on the Expansion Project of the 2.97 Million mt/Year Copper-Lead-Tin-Silver-Zinc Mine in the Baiyinchagan Dongshan Mining Area of Xiwuqi Yinman Mining Co., Ltd." (Nei Fa Gai Chan Ye Fa Zi (2025) No. 24) issued by the Development and Reform Commission of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to the Development and Reform Commission of the Xilingol League. Yinman Mining is implementing an expansion project for zinc, lead, silver, copper, and tin ore in the mining area (mining license number: C1500002015013210136961). The project's construction scale will be expanded from 1.65 million mt/year to 2.97 million mt/year, with underground mining as the extraction method. The project is classified as a renovation and expansion project. The company will actively promote the construction of the 2.97 million mt/year expansion project at Yinman Mining. Prior to the project's commencement, the company will handle the relevant procedures for land use, environmental protection, energy conservation review, work safety, water and soil conservation, etc., in accordance with relevant laws and administrative regulations, to ensure that the project commences with all necessary permits as planned. After the project is completed and put into operation, the mining and beneficiation capacity of Yinman Mining will increase from 1.65 million mt/year to 2.97 million mt/year, further enhancing the company's profitability and market competitiveness. 3. Safety incident at subsidiary Yinman Mining: At 16:18 on March 9, 2025, a safety incident occurred during development work at the Yinman Mining project department of Henan Jinyuan Construction Co., Ltd., the mining contractor of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The incident resulted in one fatality and no injuries. Following the incident, mining operations at Yinman Mining were suspended on March 9, while the beneficiation plant continued normal operations. Currently, Yinman Mining has completed the relevant rectification work in accordance with the regulatory authorities' requirements, and mining operations resumed on April 16, 2025. This incident did not have a significant impact on the company's production and operations, nor did it have a material adverse impact on the company's 2025 performance. In addition, the 2024 annual report released by Xingye Yinxi shows that in 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4,270.3872 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.22%; total profit was 1,765.2261 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.69%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1,529.8586 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.82%. Introduction to Xingye Yinxi: In 2024, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main business of various mineral products in the company's total operating revenue was as follows: tin ore contributed 1,415.3906 million yuan, accounting for 33.14%; silver ore contributed 1,165.409 million yuan, accounting for 27.29%; zinc ore contributed 981.0361 million yuan, accounting for 22.97%; iron ore contributed 234.7111 million yuan, accounting for 5.50%; lead ore contributed 230.3635 million yuan, accounting for 5.39%; copper ore contributed 129.711 million yuan, accounting for 3.04%; antimony ore contributed 62.8116 million yuan, accounting for 1.47%; and gold ore contributed 13.7186 million yuan, accounting for 0.32%. Among these, the combined operating revenue from tin ore and silver ore accounted for 60.43%. In its annual report, Xingye Yinxi introduced: During the reporting period, the company's main products included non-ferrous metals and precious metals such as silver, tin, zinc, lead, iron, copper, antimony, and gold. Xingye Silver & Tin stated: In 2024, the company made solid progress in various tasks and successfully completed all annual production and operation objectives. Relying on its high-quality operating mines, the company achieved dual growth in production and profitability , with the effectiveness of its strategic layout becoming evident. Xingye Silver & Tin stated: In 2024, the company produced 8,901.85 mt of mineral tin, up 14.58% YoY; 228.93 mt of mineral silver, up 14.68% YoY; 59,740.98 mt of mineral zinc, up 8.67% YoY; 16,958.57 mt of mineral lead, up 8.05% YoY; 2,906.43 mt of mineral copper, up 4.94% YoY; 1,351.70 mt of mineral antimony, up 32.58% YoY; and 339,100 mt of mineral iron, down 3.74% YoY. From 2022 to 2024, the production of the company's main products (excluding bismuth, iron, and gold) increased year by year. Xingye Silver & Tin introduced: As of the end of 2024 (including Yubang Mining), the company's proven reserves of various metals within the scope of mining licenses for each mine are as follows: A research report on Xingye Silver & Tin published by Guosen Securities on May 16 pointed out: In recent years, the company's production of major minerals has steadily increased. In 2024, the prices and volumes of silver and tin both rose, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in the company's profits. The acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining has further elevated the company's silver reserves. Considering the company's reliance on the resource-rich location advantage in Inner Mongolia and its proactive approach to reserving high-quality mineral resources through external mergers and acquisitions while pursuing endogenous development, Guosen Securities maintains an "Outperform" rating. Risk warnings: Risks of the company's resource development progress falling short of expectations; risks of volatile metal prices. A research report on Xingye Silver & Tin by Huaxin Securities showed: In 2024, the prices and volumes of mineral tin and silver both rose. The expansion of the Yinman Mine and the external acquisition of Yubang Mining indicate promising long-term growth. First overseas takeover bid for tin mine, marking the company's initial foray into going global: On May 6, 2025, the company announced that it had signed the "Offer Implementation Agreement" with Atlantic Tin Limited on April 30, 2025. The company intends to designate its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., to make an off-market conditional takeover offer to shareholders holding all the issued shares of the target company at a price of AUD 0.24 per share through an off-market takeover bid. Atlantic Tin is an unlisted public company founded in 2005 and headquartered in Perth, Australia. The target company's main business activity is the development of the Achmmach tin mine project in Morocco. As of August 12, 2024, the Achmmach tin mine had proven ore reserves of 39.1 million mt, with an average tin grade of 0.55% and a tin metal content of 213,300 mt. Since 2025, silver and tin prices have maintained a high trend, and the company has completed two mergers and acquisitions. The long-term capacity growth is expected, and we maintain an "Overweight" investment rating. Risk warnings: 1) Downstream demand falls short of expectations; 2) Risk of metal price decline; 3) The release of the company's expanded capacity falls short of expectations; 4) The company's acquisition progress falls short of expectations, etc.

According to customs data, the imports of lead concentrates in April 2025 were 111,046 mt, down 4.3% MoM but up 22.1% YoY. As of 2025, the cumulative imports of lead concentrates were approximately 448,700 mt, up 41% YoY. In terms of source countries, Russia, the US, and Peru were the major suppliers of lead concentrates.

[SMM Analysis: Lead Concentrates Imports in April 2025 Remained Stable with a Slight Decline, Domestic Lead Concentrates Market Continued in Tight Balance] According to customs data, imports of lead concentrates in April 2025 reached 111,046 mt, down 4.3% MoM and up 22.1% YoY. The cumulative imports of lead concentrates in 2025 amounted to approximately 448,700 mt, representing a 41% increase YoY compared to 2024. By country, Russia, the US, and Peru were the major sources of lead concentrates imports in April.

The domestic supply of lead concentrates remains tight, with scarce forward quotes for spot orders of imported ore. Smelters have shown low purchasing interest in imported high-silver lead ore with Pb60TC quoted at below -$30/dmt. It is expected that lead concentrates arriving at ports in the future will still be dominated by long-term orders. Some smelters in regions such as Hunan and Inner Mongolia in China have mentioned that there may be a downward adjustment in the price negotiations for lead concentrates by the end of May. This week, there has been no significant change in the domestic TCs for lead concentrates. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database