Next Monday, the LME will be closed for one day due to the Spring Bank Holiday, while the NYSE and CME will also be closed for holidays, and Malaysia will have a one-day holiday on May 27 for Hari Raya Haji. On the macroeconomic data front, key releases are about to be published, including the US April core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the revised US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, and the US April personal spending month-on-month rate. Additionally, the US and Russian presidents visited China successively recently, improving expectations for dialogue and cooperation among major powers, and easing market risk-aversion sentiment. LME lead side, ex-China LME lead inventory unexpectedly surged by over 20,000 mt this week, but LME lead Cash-3M backwardation rose to $22.55/mt, with the trend diverging from inventory. The tight supply of high-grade lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market has not yet eased, while Australian lead-zinc smelters are ramping up production. With both bullish and bearish factors coexisting in the market, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at highs. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,970-2,030/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the recent decline in lead prices brought some downstream buy-the-dip stocking demand, and combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after probing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to a discount (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is putting pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,500-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,400-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in an off-season pattern, with downstream enterprises' rigid demand still limited. Combined with the rebound in lead prices, downstream enterprises have become more cautious in procurement. Supply side, production at both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is stable to slightly higher. Among them, secondary lead losses have begun to narrow, market circulating supply has increased, and the probability of spot lead transactions shifting to a discount is growing (against SMM #1 lead).

As of May 21, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 13,400 mt, down 9,900 mt WoW. In the first half of the week, lead prices weakened, with spot lead falling below 16,300 yuan/mt. Losses for secondary lead deepened, and secondary lead smelters became less willing to ship, with some even temporarily suspending shipments. Meanwhile, as lead prices declined, downstream enterprises gradually bought the dip, with procurement tilting toward the primary lead segment, driving down in-factory inventory at primary lead smelters.

SMM May 22 update: As of May 21, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 21,400 mt, up 4,000 mt WoW from May 14. Lead prices fell first and then rose this week, with downstream battery enterprises showing strong wait-and-see sentiment, and weak procurement drove inventory accumulation. After lead prices recovered, some large smelters held back from selling, and spot order inventories rose notably. Going into next week, a major plant in Jiangxi is expected to ramp up production after production resumptions, and a smelter in Guangdong is expected to resume production after environmental protection inspections. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises will begin a new round of long-term contract cargo pick-up. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, secondary lead finished product inventories are unlikely to decline effectively.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract held up well overall, with prices declining first before rising. During the Asian session, LME lead opened at $1,980/mt, briefly pulled back after a slight initial rally, then entered the European session and began to fluctuate upward. It accelerated in late trading, touching a high of $2,006.5/mt, and finally closed at $2,005/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up $27.5/mt or 1.39%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,700 yuan/mt, briefly dipped to 16,670 yuan/mt in early trading, then strengthened in a fluctuating manner, touching a high of 16,745 yuan/mt. Gains narrowed slightly toward the end, finally closing at 16,740 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. On the macro front: Al Arabiya TV denied Iranian media reports citing it regarding a "US-Iran deal." Rubio: Establishing a strait toll station is completely unacceptable. Iran's Revolutionary Guards: 31 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Senior Iranian officials denied reports on keeping enriched uranium in the country. Foreign media reported: Turkey nearly cleared its US Treasury holdings to support its currency. BOE Technology Group A: As of now, the company has not yet conducted business cooperation with NVIDIA. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday and today, non-ferrous metals generally rose, and SHFE lead also rebounded strongly. Suppliers became more active in shipments, with primary lead from major producing areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions at premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters saw improved shipment sentiment as lead prices stopped falling and rebounded, with some quotations shifting to discounts. Secondary refined lead from major producing areas was quoted at discounts of 25-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few maintaining premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises generally shifted to a wait-and-see stance, especially after dip-buying in previous days, with most downstream enterprises focused on digesting inventories, and spot market transactions notably weakened. Inventory: On May 21, LME lead inventory remained flat at 286,475 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory was flat compared to the 18th. Lead price forecast for today: Looking at the market this week, some smelters in east China chose to hold back from selling and stockpile due to weak lead prices, while enterprises in other regions saw slight destocking in finished product inventories WoW. Dragged by inventory buildup in east China, overall industry inventory edged up. Lead ingot social inventory gradually pulled back after delivery ended, but the destocking pace remained slow. As some smelters resumed production, China's secondary lead production rose slightly MoM, which to some extent suppressed upside room for lead prices. On the sentiment side, concentrated short-covering yesterday drove a lead price rebound, and lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,962/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved sideways within the $1,961-1,965/mt range before edging higher. Entering the European session, LME lead prices briefly dipped before rising on fund-driven momentum, touching a high of $1,981/mt. Prices pulled back slightly toward the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,977.5/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of $16/mt, or 0.82%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,506 yuan/mt. After the open, it dipped slightly, touching a low of 16,525 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward driven by a broad rally across non-ferrous metals, reaching a high of 16,640 yuan/mt. It ultimately closed at 16,630 yuan/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. On the macro front: Trump said US-Iran negotiations had entered the final stage. Foreign media reported that Trump insisted on a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue, while Netanyahu strongly opposed it. NVIDIA's Q1 revenue and Q2 outlook both exceeded expectations, yet US stocks remained flat in after-hours trading. Foreign media reported that OpenAI would submit its IPO filing as early as Friday. SpaceX officially submitted its IPO filing, with Q1 revenue of $4.7 billion. The Ministry of Commerce stated that both China and the US agreed in principle to discuss a framework arrangement for reciprocal tariff reductions on products of equivalent scale under the Trade Council. The Ministry of Finance reported that securities transaction stamp tax in the first four months was up 74.8% YoY. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, the SHFE lead price center shifted lower again, approaching previous lows. Suppliers became less willing to ship, with fewer offers, and some suppliers narrowed their discount quotes. Secondary lead smelters shipped along with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Apart from lead smelters with consumption location advantages that had rigid demand transactions, trades at premiums were difficult. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, with some having already made purchases yesterday. Inquiries decreased today, and spot market transactions were moderate. Inventory: On May 20, LME lead inventory increased by 22,275 mt to 286,475 mt. On May 18, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions pulled back WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Overnight, the broad rally across the non-ferrous metals sector drove SHFE lead higher. In late May, lead prices fell to low levels, spot trades in the market recovered, and smelter and social inventory continued to decline, serving as the main support for lead prices to stop falling. However, secondary lead enterprises gradually resumed production, limiting the overall destocking pace, and the upside for lead prices will also be constrained by the pace of production resumptions. Currently, the off-season pattern in the lead market remains unchanged, with downstream lead-acid battery enterprises generally maintaining production cuts. Lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened high at $1,983/mt, fluctuating downward overall, gradually declining during the session to a low of $1,961/mt, and finally closing at $1,961.5/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down $19.5/mt or 0.98%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,480 yuan/mt, came under pressure and fluctuated downward after the opening, hitting a low of 16,395 yuan/mt during the session, with losses narrowing slightly toward the close, and finally closing at 16,410 yuan/mt, posting a shaven-head bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. On the macro front: Trump: Iran has limited time, and the US may take action against Iran again. Vance: Significant progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, but the US has also prepared a "Plan B." Mediators believed that US-Iran negotiations made little progress, with Iran insisting on its core demands unchanged. Google launched the Gemini 3.5-series models. NATO set a deadline: if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by early July, it plans to deploy forces for escort operations. Sources: Indonesia plans to tighten national controls on commodity exports. Russian President Putin arrived in Beijing by special aircraft. According to the CSRC website: Yangtze Memory Technologies initiated IPO guidance. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate weakly. Additionally, as supplies flowed back into the market after delivery, suppliers increased their quotations. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed, and spot market trading activity improved relatively. On the secondary lead front, smelters held prices firm on shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt above SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, while tax-exclusive prices were lower, and downstream enterprises selectively purchased. Inventory: On May 19, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 264,200 mt. On May 18, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions pulled back MoM. Lead price forecast for today: Overnight, the non-ferrous metals sector was overall in the doldrums, with SHFE lead and LME lead weakening in tandem. Domestic fundamentals, the pressure from lead ingot social inventory accumulation eased somewhat, and coupled with secondary lead enterprise operating rates remaining at low levels, this provided some support for lead prices. However, on the other hand, both primary and secondary smelters successively lowered scrap battery purchase prices, weakening cost-side support for lead prices, and downstream consumption remained sluggish, putting pressure on lead prices. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are currently intertwined in the lead market, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Futures: Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,570 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, hitting a low of 16,405 yuan/mt. From mid-session to the close, prices rebounded slightly, ultimately closing at 16,440 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,013.5/mt, briefly edging up to $2,014/mt before entering a downward fluctuation, hitting a low of $1,973/mt. Near the close, market sentiment recovered somewhat, and LME lead prices edged up, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down $28/mt or 1.39%. On the macro front: Israeli media: Netanyahu spoke with Trump, discussing the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran. Trump issued a military threat to Iran and was set to discuss military action options on Tuesday. US media: Iran plans to charge transit fees for submarine fiber-optic cables through the Strait of Hormuz. UK media: UK Prime Minister Starmer intended to resign from his position. ChangXin Technology: H1 revenue is expected to reach 110-120 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 50-57 billion yuan. China successfully launched the 9th batch of networking satellites for the Qianfan constellation. Wuxi will establish a large-scale "Token factory." The Shenzhou-23 mission plans to launch in the coming days. Spot fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead reversed and pulled back. In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai region, spot discounts narrowed slightly, with some suppliers quoted at premiums of +20~+30 yuan/mt, while cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites saw relatively reduced circulation. Some suppliers suspended shipments. Meanwhile, secondary lead smelters in east China successively resumed production, and secondary lead circulation relatively increased. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm eased, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand. In particular, as lead prices pulled back, risk-averse sentiment in the market was strong, and spot market transactions remained sluggish. Inventory: On May 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,000 mt. On May 14, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Last week, primary lead production edged up slightly, while secondary lead smelters saw both short-term production cuts/shutdowns and production resumptions coexisting. Import lead side, the import window was closed, and the inflow of imported lead into China decreased. The supply side overall presented an intertwined pattern of bullish and bearish factors. The battery consumption off-season continued in May, with weak end-use demand providing limited support for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

As of May 14, the in-factory inventory of major delivery brands for primary lead was 23,300 mt, a WoW increase of 3,000 mt. Recently, production at primary lead enterprises remained relatively stable, while the lead-acid battery market continued in off-season mode, with limited rigid demand from downstream enterprises. Lead prices fell at the beginning of the week, and some downstream enterprises bought the dip on an as-needed basis. However, in the latter half of the week, lead prices pulled back again, and downstream enterprises exhibited strong risk-averse sentiment, leading to inventory accumulation at smelters. Meanwhile, with the conclusion of the current round of SHFE lead delivery, suppliers reduced their inventory transfer activities, which was also one of the reasons for the renewed inventory buildup at primary lead enterprises.

SMM May 15 update: As of May 15, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 17,300 mt, down 1,580 mt WoW from May 7. Secondary lead production pulled back this week. With lead prices in the doldrums, smelters achieved modest destocking of finished products. Looking ahead to next week, a large smelter in Jiangxi plans to resume production, and an enterprise under maintenance in Guizhou is also set to restart production. Meanwhile, primary lead spot cargo is expected to flow into the market after delivery, increasing available supply options for downstream buyers. Secondary lead finished product inventory destocking pressure is expected to intensify further.