Next week, key macroeconomic data will include the US June core PCE price index y/y, the US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, with the major event being the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision. With only a few days until the Fed meeting, the market remains deeply divided over whether the Fed will hike rates this month, a situation rarely seen in recent years. The market widely expects a high probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, though attention still needs to be paid to the policy signals from the meeting and the post-meeting statement. Meanwhile, the US reimposition of reciprocal tariffs and the escalating US-Iran conflict, together with rising energy costs such as crude oil, have heightened market concerns over the global economic outlook. LME lead side, after a surge in LME lead inventory outside China the previous week, LME lead cancelled warrants increased significantly this week, up nearly 30,000 mt WoW. Geopolitical tensions outside China, rising crude oil prices, and shipping constraints have pushed up lead prices from the cost side. At the same time, expectations of lead consumption growth in the Southeast Asian market persist, which will provide some support for the lead market, but high lead ingot inventory pressure will still limit the upside room for lead prices. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,875-1,935/mt. SHFE lead side, as August approaches, the market has expectations for the traditional peak season for lead-acid batteries, but actual consumption so far has been disappointing. While smelter production has been steady to slightly higher, lead ingot inventory faces further accumulation pressure. Currently, lead ingot inventory is mainly concentrated at smelter warehouses. Going forward, attention should be paid to the potential shift from invisible to visible inventory, which could continue to weigh on lead prices. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,550-15,950 yuan/mt. Spot lead price forecast: 15,500-15,750 yuan/mt. Consumption side, demand in the lead-acid battery market remains weak. Downstream enterprises remain cautious in procurement, with just-in-time procurement still dominant. Supply side, primary and secondary lead smelters are seeing mixed production adjustments. Spot market supply is ample, and spot cargoes are generally trading at a discount. With new monthly long-term contracts set to begin execution next week, the spot market discount structure may be hard to improve significantly.

SMM July 20 news: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,869.5/mt and moved sideways during Asian trading hours. Entering the European session, it dipped initially before rebounding, touching a low of $1,863.5/mt, and later surged to a high of $1,890.5/mt near the close as bears reduced their positions, eventually settling at $1,887/mt, up 0.96%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,875 yuan/mt, briefly hit a low of 15,855 yuan/mt in early trading, and then rebounded to a high of 15,980 yuan/mt as bears cut their positions, before finally closing at 15,945 yuan/mt, up 0.44%. Due to delivery factors and downstream purchases, visible lead ingot inventory rose then fell last week. After the bearish news of inventory buildup outside China was fully digested, the Chinese market's attention shifted to the production of secondary lead enterprises and downstream purchasing trends. If lead ingot inventory continues to destock this week, lead prices are expected to return to and consolidate above the 16,000-yuan-per-mt level.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,869.5/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it dipped first before rebounding, hitting a low of $1,863.5/mt, then climbed to a high of $1,890.5/mt near the close as bears cut positions, finally settling at $1,887/mt, up 0.96%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,875 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 15,855 yuan/mt in early trading, then rebounded to a high of 15,980 yuan/mt as bears reduced positions, finally closing at 15,945 yuan/mt, up 0.44%. On the macro front: US media reports: US-Iran conflict intensifies, the Pentagon is rushing additional F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the Middle East. The Eurozone's May current account surplus expanded, as primary income growth offset a narrowing trade surplus. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) stated that central state-owned enterprises must continue to achieve breakthroughs in original technologies such as foundational algorithms, physical AI, intelligent computing chips and quantum communication. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released an action plan for AI cooperation and development. The Ministry of Finance adjusted some battery consumption tax policies, gradually resuming collection of consumption tax on certain new energy batteries. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a strong note. Suppliers showed moderate selling enthusiasm, but circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai markets were limited, with few quotes available. Meanwhile, primary lead smelters sold EXW cargoes following the market trend, with quotes at wider discounts in some regions; mainstream producing areas quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for ex-works sales, with a few deals done at even larger discounts. In secondary lead, smelters offered more quotes, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mostly shifted to long-term contract procurement or paused to observe the market, muting the trading atmosphere in the spot order market. Inventory: On July 17, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 mt to 452,075 mt. As of July 16, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions decreased by about 500 mt WoW from July 13. Lead price forecast for today: Due to delivery factors and downstream procurement, visible lead ingot inventory rose first and then fell last week. With the bearish overseas inventory buildup factor now priced in, the Chinese market's focus shifted to the production of secondary lead enterprises and downstream purchasing trends. If lead ingot inventory continues to destock this week, lead prices are expected to return to and consolidate above the 16,000 yuan/mt level.

[SMM Lead Morning Report: Market risk-averse sentiment eased, LME lead and SHFE lead basically recovered the previous day's decline] SMM July 17 news: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,851/mt, bearish news outside China was exhausted, bears gradually reduced positions, and LME lead drifted higher throughout the day...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Negative News Exhausted, Lead Prices to Relatively Rebound in the Short Term] Lead ingot inventories in and outside China turned from rising to falling, significantly easing market risk-averse sentiment, and, combined with the earlier decline in lead prices, expectations for production cuts emerged in the secondary lead market...

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: LME Lead and SHFE Lead Hit New Lows Again, Watch for Subsequent Inventory Changes] SMM, July 16: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,866/mt. Affected by macro factors and lead ingot inventory buildup, LME lead showed a downward drifting trend throughout the day. ......

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Weakness and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup to Keep Short-term Lead Prices Consolidating on a Subdued Note] The LME lead inventory outside China surged by a cumulative 167,200 mt over two consecutive days, with invisible inventory in the trade system turning into visible inventory, becoming the main bearish factor for the lead market recently...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Overseas Inventory Buildup Weighing Down, Lead Prices Weakening in Tandem Inside and Outside China] Bearish factors in markets outside China have continued to ferment, geopolitical risks remain, compounded by a sharp increase in LME lead inventories to a near 14-year high, exerting significant pressure on lead prices...

[SMM Lead Morning News: High uncertainty in the Middle East situation, LME lead ends four-day winning streak] SMM, July 14 – Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,892.5/mt. Affected by geopolitical risks outside China, market risk aversion sentiment heated up, and LME lead quickly fell to $1,873/mt after the opening...

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Macro Risks and Weak Fundamentals to Keep Lead Prices Consolidating on a Weak Note] Recently, geopolitical risks in markets outside China have escalated again, keeping risk-off sentiment relatively strong. In China, some primary lead smelters in northern regions have successively concluded maintenance or are winding down production cuts...