In April 2026, domestic lead prices overall moved sideways, with spot cargo and futures trends remaining relatively stable. According to SMM data, the average spot price of SMM #1 lead ingot in April was 16,525 yuan/mt, with prices operating steadily within the range during the month, rising first then declining. Futures market, SHFE lead contract prices were generally higher than spot prices……

SMM May 25: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied. After touching a low of $1,995/mt, bears reduced positions, and LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. The decline in lead futures prices spurred some downstream stocking demand on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after touching lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises successively resumed production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices shifted to a discount (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied, touching a low of $1,995/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented." US Fed Governor Waller stated that the current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the near term, and that interest rate hikes would be needed if inflation expectations become unanchored. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett noted that a potential US-Iran deal could lead to a significant drop in energy prices and create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. China's Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to April, national foreign investment absorption totaled 287.69 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY. The CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund business activities. The PBOC announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a tenor of one year. Hong Kong's stock market was closed on Monday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. : In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, warrant quotations remained scarce, and suppliers mainly traded cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped along with the market. However, some smelters held prices firm on shipments due to limited inventory. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Additionally, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead losses were repaired, and smelter shipment sentiment improved. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few premiums of 50 yuan/mt still available. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, especially after lead prices rose, with more downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and declining inquiry enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. Inventory: On May 22, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 286,475 mt. As of May 21, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 73,300 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from May 14. Lead price forecast for today: Lower lead futures prices generated some stocking demand from downstream buyers on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after testing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is expected to put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next Monday, the LME will be closed for one day due to the Spring Bank Holiday, while the NYSE and CME will also be closed for holidays, and Malaysia will have a one-day holiday on May 27 for Hari Raya Haji. On the macroeconomic data front, key releases are about to be published, including the US April core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the revised US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, and the US April personal spending month-on-month rate. Additionally, the US and Russian presidents visited China successively recently, improving expectations for dialogue and cooperation among major powers, and easing market risk-aversion sentiment. LME lead side, ex-China LME lead inventory unexpectedly surged by over 20,000 mt this week, but LME lead Cash-3M backwardation rose to $22.55/mt, with the trend diverging from inventory. The tight supply of high-grade lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market has not yet eased, while Australian lead-zinc smelters are ramping up production. With both bullish and bearish factors coexisting in the market, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at highs. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,970-2,030/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the recent decline in lead prices brought some downstream buy-the-dip stocking demand, and combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after probing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to a discount (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is putting pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,500-16,850 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,400-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in an off-season pattern, with downstream enterprises' rigid demand still limited. Combined with the rebound in lead prices, downstream enterprises have become more cautious in procurement. Supply side, production at both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises is stable to slightly higher. Among them, secondary lead losses have begun to narrow, market circulating supply has increased, and the probability of spot lead transactions shifting to a discount is growing (against SMM #1 lead).

According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs (compiled by SMM), the import and export of refined lead and lead alloys in March 2026 were as follows: China's refined lead exports totaled 3,190 mt, down 36.83% MoM and up 12.78% YoY. From January to March, combined exports of refined lead and lead products totaled 12,950 mt, down 23.43% YoY on a cumulative basis.

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were down YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports climbed sharply; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.

[Latest Data from the General Administration of Customs] In March 2026, China's refined lead imports totaled 24,824 mt, and lead alloy imports totaled 24,575 mt. Combined imports of refined lead and lead products from January to March totaled 130,799 mt, up 285.95% YoY on a cumulative basis.

Three weeks ago until now, the shortage of remelted lead in domestic SEA countries has become significantly more severe. According to SMM’s internal survey, smelters in Malaysia, Vietnam, and India are unable to secure remelted lead to produce refined lead of 99.99% and 99.97%. This tight supply of remelted lead is pushing both domestic and international trading prices of refined lead higher across the mentioned-above regions.

According to China Customs data, China’s cumulative refined lead imports reached 33,412 mt in January-February 2026, surging 732.08% YoY. Of this, imports in February alone were 21,072 mt, up 70.77% MoM and soaring 1,169.62% YoY, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years.