SMM, May 11: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,705 yuan/mt intraday. From the early session to mid-session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,680-16,730 yuan/mt. Affected by relatively loose primary lead supply coupled with weak downstream consumption, lead prices pulled back under pressure near the end of the session, hitting a low of 16,655 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.21%. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises led to regional tightness in lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable with a slight increase, resulting in relatively loose overall supply. Bullish and bearish factors were intertwined on the supply side. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market remained unchanged, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 11: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session to a low of $1,958/mt. As tight supply of lead ingots in the Southeast Asian market persisted, providing strong support for lead prices, it rebounded during the European session, touching a high of $1,979/mt before closing at $1,977.5/mt, down 0.99%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened high at 16,740 yuan/mt. Due to weak consumption in the spot market, lead prices were in the doldrums, hitting a low of 16,665 yuan/mt before closing at 16,705 yuan/mt, down 0.03%, forming a small bearish candlestick with no upper or lower shadows. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remained in the off-season, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises will resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, and regional supply of lead ingots was tight, while primary lead production was stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supplies. Lead prices are expected to have limited discounts (against SMM #1 lead). Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 8 update: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,770 yuan/mt intraday. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,750-16,785 yuan/mt. Subsequently, dragged down by lead ingot inventory buildup, prices fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of 16,610 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly toward the close, ultimately settling at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt or 0.65%, recording a small bearish candlestick. Sentiment side, geopolitical tensions outside China resurfaced, tightening the macro atmosphere and driving non-ferrous metals overall under pressure to pull back. Fundamentals side, production cuts and shutdowns at secondary lead smelters expanded in scope, but the lead-acid battery industry entered the traditional consumption off-season, with supply and demand weakening simultaneously. Lead ingot inventory continued to accumulate after the holiday, making it difficult to provide effective support for lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue their pullback, giving back part of the earlier gains. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 8 update: This week, SMM #1 lead ingot prices rose before fluctuating downward, and secondary refined lead premiums converged from wide discounts toward parity. At the beginning of the week, smelter quotes were somewhat divergent, generally ranging from a discount of 0-75 yuan/mt, with downstream purchasing on demand and trading improving. Mid-week, lead prices pulled back, and quote divergence widened to a range of discount 75 yuan/mt to premium 50 yuan/mt, with spot order trading turning sluggish. At the weekend, smelters held prices firm, narrowing quotes to near parity, with downstream mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach and sluggish transactions. Currently, both supply and demand were weak, and premiums are expected to move sideways within the range of discount 75 to premium 50 yuan/mt next week. Affected by pressure on finished lead profits and rising scrap battery raw material costs, smelter losses intensified: as of May 8, large enterprises posted losses of 141 yuan/mt, and small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 345 yuan/mt. Although smelter production cuts and shutdowns have increased, the tight raw material situation remains unchanged, and with costs staying elevated, smelter losses are expected to see little significant relief.

Next week, key macroeconomic data releases include China's April CPI YoY, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, and US April retail sales MoM. Additionally, US-Iran peace talks have been fraught with twists and turns—Iranian media claimed the US violated the ceasefire agreement, Iranian armed forces struck US warships, and talks are currently stalled, posing significant macro uncertainty risks. LME lead side, ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango, with another "one-day" backwardation structure appearing during the week. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding ex-China geopolitical factors remains high, and their market impact warrants continued attention. LME lead is expected to trade within $1,950-2,000/mt next week. SHFE lead side, next week the SHFE lead 2605 contract enters delivery, with more suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses. Lead ingots will transfer from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the continued buildup in visible lead ingot inventory will keep dragging on lead prices. Meanwhile, concentrated production cuts and shutdowns among secondary lead enterprises have become the main driver of supply reduction this month. Additionally, the closure of the import window and secondary lead losses provide price support. After delivery-related factors are resolved, lead prices will need new catalysts to determine direction. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade within 16,550-16,950 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,450-16,650 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in off-season mode, but with the holiday factor removed, downstream enterprises are expected to resume purchasing as needed. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises cut production, leading to regionally tight lead ingot supply, while primary lead production remained stable to slightly higher with relatively ample supply. Next week, attention should be paid to the impact of delivery on circulating supply. Lead prices are unlikely to see significant discounts (vs. SMM #1 lead). .

After the holiday, lead-acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production. However, the off-season trend in the battery market remained unchanged, and downstream enterprises were generally in a state of production cuts, so post-holiday restocking demand for lead ingots was relatively limited. Meanwhile, lead prices trended stronger this week, with SHFE lead briefly touching the 17,000 mark, which discouraged some restocking demand, and spot market transactions were sluggish. In addition, in the battery wholesale market, dealers saw limited inventory digestion during the Labour Day holiday, and there was no significant restocking demand after the holiday either.

SMM May 8 News: From May 1 to May 7, 2026, SMM data showed that the weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces in China was 27.09%, down 13.45 percentage points WoW. In Anhui and Henan, smelters suspended production and production lines underwent maintenance respectively. In Jiangsu, the shutdown of a large smelter dragged down the regional operating rate by 25.71 percentage points. In Inner Mongolia, the shutdown of a large smelter caused the regional operating rate to plunge by 57.94 percentage points. Most enterprises plan to maintain production next week. Under the volatile lead price pattern, attention should be focused on the constraining impact of raw material arrivals on production going forward.

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mining enterprises indicated that they had lowered zinc concentrate TCs in May due to market conditions and a sharp rise in sulphuric acid prices, but the quoted lead concentrate TCs for concentrates produced and sold during the same period were not adjusted. A few suppliers holding lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the starting payable or payable indicator for copper and zinc contained in lead ore, but did not directly lower their lead concentrate TC quotations. Regarding imported ore prices, smelters maintained mainstream quotations of -$150 to -$130/dmt. Since late April, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio has continued to decline, losses on imported lead concentrates have widened, and smelters showed little enthusiasm for negotiating and purchasing. Regarding the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates, as silver prices have yet to break out of their sideways range and macro influences remain complex, the precious metals trend remains unclear. Both buyers and sellers remained cautiously on the sidelines, and the silver payable indicator for lead concentrates across various silver content levels remained stable.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface Outside China, Lead Prices to Give Back Some Gains] Tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by launching airstrikes on Iranian coastal areas and oil tankers. Geopolitical events outside China resurfaced, the macro situation became tense, and non-ferrous metals largely pulled back. China's lead fundamentals underperformed...

SMM May 7 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,840 yuan/mt intraday, edged higher initially before turning to fluctuate downward, touching a low of 16,770 yuan/mt during the session, then rebounded near the close, ultimately settling at 16,820 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt or 0.94%, recording a small bearish candlestick. After the Labour Day holiday, the market returned to normal trading, with lead ingot arrivals at warehouses across regions increasing somewhat, and social inventory entering a seasonal inventory buildup phase. Meanwhile, primary lead smelters in the southwest, east China and other regions successively resumed production, with incremental primary lead supply emerging in the market. Additionally, as the SHFE lead 2605 contract approached delivery, inventory at warehouses around east China rose notably. On the other hand, secondary lead enterprises in east China were still in a concentrated maintenance cycle, with regional lead ingot supply remaining structurally and geographically tight. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the current lead market, and lead prices are expected to hover at highs going forward. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.