Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

In summary, during the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the five segments of the aluminum industry chain exhibited differentiated operational trends.

As the Chinese New Year holiday is around the corner, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) hereby informs you of our metal price update arrangement during the holiday period to ensure you can make proper arrangements for your work and business.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: AI Concerns Triggered a Broad Decline in Risk Assets, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] Overall, the bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled down, coupled with high inventory pressure on the fundamentals, aluminum prices were in the doldrums this week. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic market was closed, while the LME market continued trading. Be cautious of fluctuations in the macro market and the LME market during the holiday, which may cause volatility in aluminum prices after the holiday.

[SMM Analysis: Primary Aluminum Billets Operation in January Weaker Than Expectations, February Production May Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low] Domestic primary aluminum billets operation in January performed weaker than expectations. According to SMM data...

[Non-Farm Payrolls Data Exceed Expectations, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Pull Back] At the beginning of the week, the gradual digestion of macro sentiment led to a decline in LME zinc; however, continued destocking of overseas LME zinc inventory provided bottom support for prices. Subsequently, as the market continued to await the delayed release of non-farm payrolls and CPI data, trading activity became more cautious, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Market Enters Holiday Mode with Prices Mainly Stable, Post-Holiday Recovery Awaited] Post-holiday price trends will return to the interplay between supply-demand and cost factors. If enterprises maintain a normal pace of production resumptions while downstream order recovery falls short of expectations, the price center risks declining under pressure. If phased restocking occurs after the holiday, coupled with primary aluminum prices holding up well, ADC12 prices are expected to see a corrective rebound. Overall, before end-use demand shows substantial improvement, prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the initial post-holiday period, still moving within the pre-holiday range, with direction depending on the strength of demand recovery and the performance of primary aluminum prices.

[SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1] This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back to fluctuate near 7.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, although strong non-farm payrolls prompted the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate cuts, US retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December, geopolitical risks persisted, and LME social inventory continued to draw down, providing price support. LME zinc consistently fluctuated at highs.

SMM February 13: SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated downward in the morning session, with the price center lower than the previous trading day. Some enterprises were already on Chinese New Year break, overall market sentiment was weak, and mainstream quotations concentrated at the average price to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2, down 0.21 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.07, down 0.27 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 23,160 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 120 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 190 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. On the last trading day before the Chinese New Year, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises had basically ended, with only a small amount of just-in-time procurement. Most traders had already entered the Chinese New Year holiday, resulting in limited spot aluminum supply in the market. Only a few traders engaged in buying the dip for stockpiling. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 400 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.25, down 0.18 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 1.9, down 0.19 WoW. SMM central China closed at 23,080 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM central China closed at 23,080 yuan/mt, down 180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 200 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 8,000 mt WoW today, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the downstream Chinese New Year break, aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

Copper prices rose initially then pulled back this week. Early in the week, a pullback in the US dollar and escalating US-Iran tensions pushed LME copper to $13,400/mt and SHFE copper above 103,000 yuan/mt. However, better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls, a drop in the unemployment rate, and US Fed officials emphasizing persistent high inflation later cooled expectations for interest rate cuts. The US dollar stabilized and rebounded, triggering concentrated profit-taking by bulls and a rapid price decline. Approaching the Chinese New Year, capital turned cautious. Domestic demand was already weak, and high prices further dampened procurement, amplifying the adjustment. Ore supply disruptions persist but are unlikely to cause substantial production cuts in the short term. Fundamentals, the spot market was sluggish this week as the Chinese New Year holiday neared. Both LME and SHFE copper showed deep contango structures, boosting traders' sentiment for stockpiling and arbitrage. Consequently, domestic and import premiums edged down only slightly. Holiday effects emerged on the demand side, with downstream stocking largely completed and procurement sentiment turning increasingly mediocre. Post-holiday outlook, a significant inventory buildup is expected during the holiday, keeping overall copper prices under pressure. LME copper is forecast to fluctuate between $12,800-13,400/mt, while SHFE copper is seen moving between 98,000-103,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, on the first trading day after the holiday, spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to show a high premium due to SMM's consistent pricing against the front-month contract and the price spread between futures contracts, but this is expected to correct on the second day. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are anticipated to range from a discount of 300 yuan/mt to a premium of 200 yuan/mt.