On May 15, 2026, iron ore futures showed a weak trend. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 809.5 yuan/mt, down 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot transaction activity was relatively tepid. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 148.76 million mt, down 1.09 million mt WoW. Overall inventory saw slight destocking, with supply tightening marginally, though remaining relatively ample overall. Meanwhile, some blast furnaces were under maintenance, and daily average hot metal production pulled back slightly. Daily average port pick-up volume edged down 21,000 mt to 3.244 million mt. Although pig iron production pulled back due to individual blast furnaces entering maintenance, given the robust demand for steel outside China and relatively comfortable profit margins at steel mills, iron ore fundamentals remained well-supported. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term until new developments enter the market. [SMM Steel]

Iron ore futures showed a weak-then-strong pattern today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 817 yuan/mt, basically flat compared to the previous trading day. Port spot prices were down 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders offered prices in line with the market; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot trading sentiment was lukewarm. SMM ten-port data by product category showed that total port inventory fell 1.7 million mt MoM from pre-holiday levels, with fines, concentrates, and lump ore all destocking. By major product, inventories of Jimblebar fines, blended fines, Mac fines, and super special fines declined notably, while inventories of IOCJ fines, PB fines, PB lump, and Newman fines increased somewhat, posing certain pressure on future prices. On the macro front, market attention today focused on Trump's visit to China. As of now, no positive news has emerged, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent news on futures. Ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

On May 12, 2026, iron ore futures were in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 812.5 yuan/mt, down 0.98% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 5-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in quoting; steel mills restocked on an as-needed basis; overall spot transactions were limited. Affected by fluctuations in the coking coal market, ferrous metals futures prices declined across the board today. Fundamentals side, according to SMM survey results, the hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance was 1.4075 million mt this week, up 25,000 mt WoW. The hot metal impact from blast furnace maintenance next week is expected to be 1.4045 million mt, down 3,000 mt WoW. Iron ore demand weakened slightly this week, but no clear trend has formed yet overall. Even though steel mills were generally reluctant to purchase high-priced ore, robust end-use demand supported steel mill blast furnace operating rates and rigid demand for iron ore. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to remain stable on the downside in the short term, and prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

On May 11, 2026, iron ore futures rose first then retreated today. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 822.5 yuan/mt, up 0.73% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders quoted actively with strong willingness to transact; steel mills showed moderate inquiry willingness for procurement, with transactions mostly driven by rigid restocking demand; the overall spot transaction atmosphere remained subdued. According to the latest SMM survey data, global iron ore shipments totaled 29.3146 million mt last week, down 7.2 million mt WoW, a decline of approximately 20%. Shipments from both Australia and Brazil declined due to weather impacts, with Brazil's shipments seeing a larger drop. Combined with the previous week's shipment volumes, iron ore supply side may tighten in the short term if port pick-up volume remains at the same level. Currently, due to strong downstream demand, steel mill operating rates remained generally high, keeping rigid demand for iron ore elevated and providing relatively solid price support. Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways at elevated levels this week. However, given the cooling trend in spot transaction market activity and steel mills' low willingness to transact at high ore prices, subsequent blast furnace maintenance schedules need to be monitored to assess the trend.

Brazil’s iron ore exports reached 31.43 million metric tons (mt) in April 2026, a 23% increase compared to the 25.55 million mt exported in April 2025. Revenue from these exports rose to $2.32 billion. China remained the dominant destination, accounting for approximately 65% of the total volume as Chinese mills replenished port inventories. The significant year-on-year growth in shipments from major miners like Vale indicates a recovery in production stability. This surge in global supply, if sustained, may cap potential upside for iron ore prices, particularly as global steel demand outside of India remains fragmented.

[China Domestic Ore Brief] Iron ore concentrates prices in the Tangshan area edged up by 10-15 yuan, with current 66-grade iron ore concentrates priced at 990-995 yuan/mt on a dry basis, tax-inclusive, ex-factory. Recently, finished steel prices rose, improving steel mill profits. Combined with imported ore prices fluctuating upward, this drove domestic iron ore concentrates prices to rise. Looking ahead to next week, domestic ore supply remains tight. Demand side, domestic steel mills' high

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...

Entering May, macro impacts gradually weakened, and price logic reverted to fundamentals. However, hot metal production has already peaked. Meanwhile, supply pressure is gradually increasing and supply-demand imbalances are intensifying, suppressing iron ore prices. From industrial data, current demand in and outside China remains robust, steel inventory destocking is progressing well, and overall supply-demand imbalances are not prominent. Comprehensively, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in May, with limited downside room. However, entering June, off-season effects will become prominent and supply-demand imbalances will intensify; at that time, macro will enter a vacuum period, and ore prices are expected to come under pressure and weaken. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, it is prohibited to reprint, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or disclose the above content to third parties in any other form, or license third parties to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement liability, including but not limited to claiming contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code for free access to information

On May 7, 2026, iron ore futures fluctuated upward with intense trading, and the most-traded contract I2609 closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.62% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity, and steel mills remained cautious in procurement; overall spot transaction sentiment was lukewarm. Currently, iron ore supply-demand fundamentals remain stable. However, oil prices transmitted through the shipping market, leading to a significant rise in iron ore freight costs today, further supporting iron ore prices. In addition, reports indicated that the US and Iran are negotiating on resolving conflicts and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices having fallen for three consecutive days. This news may boost market sentiment in the short term, providing positive sentiment-driven support for iron ore prices.

May 6, 2026 — Iron ore prices strengthened significantly in today's trading, with the benchmark I2609 futures contract closing at 816 RMB/ton, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Spot port prices rose by 10–18 RMB/ton compared to the prior day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mills mainly purchased for essential needs with limited inquiries; overall spot market transactions remained subdued.