On May 15, 2026, iron ore futures showed a weak trend. The most-traded contract I2609 closed at 809.5 yuan/mt, down 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering quotes; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot transaction activity was relatively tepid. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 148.76 million mt, down 1.09 million mt WoW. Overall inventory saw slight destocking, with supply tightening marginally, though remaining relatively ample overall. Meanwhile, some blast furnaces were under maintenance, and daily average hot metal production pulled back slightly. Daily average port pick-up volume edged down 21,000 mt to 3.244 million mt. Although pig iron production pulled back due to individual blast furnaces entering maintenance, given the robust demand for steel outside China and relatively comfortable profit margins at steel mills, iron ore fundamentals remained well-supported. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term until new developments enter the market. [SMM Steel]

On April 30, 2026, DCE iron ore futures strengthened, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 796 yuan/mt, up 1.60% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose 2-5 from the previous day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in quoting, steel mills restocked on demand with few inquiries; overall spot transactions were lackluster. According to the latest SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide stood at 150.08 million mt, down 1.09 million mt MoM, showing slight destocking. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 3.305 million mt, up 118,000 mt WoW. Although hot metal production pulled back slightly WoW, the overall destocking trend indicated that iron ore demand remained relatively strong. Currently, restocking demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday has largely concluded, and upward momentum driven by fundamentals is expected to weaken in the short term. On the other hand, affected by related policy adjustments, market panic emerged over iron ore and downstream trade liquidity, with sentiment continuing to ferment, driving iron ore spot prices to rise sharply. In the short term, iron ore prices may still hold up well, but close attention should be paid to potential impacts from shifts in market sentiment.

According to an SMM survey on April 2, total iron ore inventory across the 10 major ports tracked by SMM stood at 119.31 million tonnes, marking a week-on-week increase of 190,000 tonnes. Inventories of coarse fines and concentrates accumulated slightly, while lump ore and pellets experienced slight destocking.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period. Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.

DCE iron ore held up well today and dropped back slightly before the close. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 772 yuan/mt, up 1.38% from the previous trading session. The spot price rose 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries. Spot trading sentiment was subdued. According to SMM statistics, total iron ore inventory at 35 major ports nationwide stood at 154.8 million mt, down 590,000 mt MoM, indicating a slight destocking trend. Over the same period, the daily average port pick-up volume rebounded to 2.55 million mt, up 145,000 mt MoM, suggesting a faster pace of port shipments. Demand improved slightly. The core logic supporting iron ore prices is gradually shifting from macro demand to structural contradictions on the supply side. Market concerns over structural shortages of certain mainstream mid- to high-grade ore types are fermenting, and these expectations have strengthened bullish sentiment, providing solid bottom support for prices. Looking ahead, the market is expected to see a tug-of-war between supply and demand in the short term. On the one hand, based on the production schedule, enforcement of blast furnace maintenance is expected to strengthen next week, which will create a phased restraint on immediate iron ore consumption. Against this backdrop of weaker demand, the aforementioned structural tightness on the supply side may be temporarily less apparent. However, once this round of concentrated maintenance ends and blast furnaces resume production as planned, iron ore demand is set to warm up in the short term. Driven by a rebound in demand, the structural shortage contradiction on the supply side will quickly stand out as the market’s main trading logic, and iron ore prices are expected to, overall, hold up well at that time.

Today, iron ore futures first fell then rose, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 750.5 yuan/mt, up 0.27% from the previous trading session. Spot prices increased by 2-3 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills' purchases were mainly for restocking needs, resulting in an overall moderate spot trading atmosphere. This week, SMM statistics showed that the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide reached 155.39 million mt, an increase of 2.46 million mt compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume was recorded at 2.405 million mt, down 180,000 mt from pre-holiday levels. This indicates that supply-side pressure has not eased and is expected to continue weighing on iron ore prices. Demand side, although steel mills gradually resumed production after the holiday, some regional mills have received voluntary emission reduction notices due to the upcoming macro window period of the "Two Sessions." The strengthening of expectations for environmental protection-driven production restrictions will substantially curb marginal increases in hot metal output. In summary, constrained by unresolved inventory pressure and policy-induced production restrictions, the iron ore market lacks effective upward momentum in the short term, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound or in the doldrums.

According to an SMM survey dated 26th February, total iron ore inventories across the 10 major ports monitored by SMM reached 118.87 million tonnes, marking an increase of 2.13 million tonnes from the pre-holiday level. A divergence in stock levels was observed among the four main product categories: inventories of coarse fines and lump ore recorded a slight accumulation, whereas stocks of concentrate and pellets experienced a minor destocking.

According to the latest survey conducted by SMM on 12 February, total inventory across the 10 monitored ports stood at 116.74 million tonnes, representing a decline of 1.05 million tonnes compared to the previous period. In terms of specific product categories, stocks of coarse fines and concentrates experienced a marginal accumulation. Conversely, inventories of lump ore and pellets registered a slight destocking.

Today, iron ore futures continued to trade in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 777.5 yuan/mt, down 1.14% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 2–5 yuan/mt cumulatively from the previous session. Most traders sold at market prices, while steel mills adopted a wait-and-see stance, resulting in low inquiry activity and an overall sluggish trading atmosphere. According to the latest SMM statistics, as of January 30, the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide climbed to a high of 153 million mt, accumulating significantly by 2.77 million mt WoW, indicating continued rising pressure on visible port inventory. Meanwhile, the daily average port pick-up volume recorded 2.43 million mt, which, although rebounding slightly by 18,000 mt WoW, showed limited overall growth. Looking ahead, supply side, affected by the delayed transmission of previous overseas shipment surges, port arrivals are expected to maintain an upward trend, with supply-side pressure showing no signs of easing. Amid continuous delivery of arriving resources and weakening marginal demand, the accumulation trend in port iron ore inventory is unlikely to reverse. The supply-demand structure is expected to face further pressure, and iron ore prices are projected to continue trading in the doldrums in the short term.