The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA) for the first half of August 2026. The HMA for the first half of August is as follows: the nickel price is $16,646.00 per ton (compared to the second half of July 2026, $16,533.67USD/ton), an increase of 112.33 USD equivalent to 0.68%; the price of cobalt is 55,875.67 US dollars per ton; the HMA of iron ore is 1.44 USD/ton; and the HMA of chrome ore price is 6.37 USD/ton. · Ni 1.2%: USD 45.48 /wmt (↑ $0.23) · Ni 1.3%: USD 49.70 /wmt (↑ $0.26) · Ni 1.4%: USD 53.89/wmt (↑ $0.29) · Ni 1.5%: USD 58.54/wmt (↑ $0.32) · Ni 1.6%: USD 63.41/wmt (↑ $0.35)

SMM News August 1: Metals markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, gaining 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was unchanged at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a July gain of 4.63%. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc rose 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, and the cast aluminum main contract edged up 0.02%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. In the overnight overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a July gain of 3.16%. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, gaining 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.49%, but posted its second straight weekly gain, up 0.68% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.49%; COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with a weekly decline, down 1.92% for the week, and two straight monthly losses, sliding 3.58% in July. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, posting its second straight weekly gain, up 0.55% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.52%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, but posted two straight weekly gains, up 0.98% for the week, with a July monthly gain of 1.21%. As of 8:16 on August 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front China side: [State Council executive meeting: Study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech on the H1 economic situation and ensuring sound economic work in H2] The meeting stressed that thinking and understanding should be aligned with the Party Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, more concrete measures should be taken to promote sustained, innovation-driven, high-quality, and improved economic development, and efforts should be made to achieve a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The efficiency of macro policy implementation must be effectively enhanced, existing policies should be fully and optimally utilized, and pragmatic and effective incremental policies should be timely devised and introduced. Domestic demand must be effectively expanded, with a focus on sectors with great potential and strong driving force to launch a series of robust measures, accelerating the implementation of major projects set in the 15th Five-Year Plan and solidly advancing the planning and construction of the “Six Networks”. Internal growth drivers should be continuously strengthened, with more effective and concrete measures introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. Sustained efforts must be made to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, solidly carry out tasks such as disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and workplace safety, strengthen assistance to people in need, and firmly uphold the bottom line of people's livelihoods. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Conducts Supervision and Inspection at Some Automotive Producers] To further standardize competitive order in the automotive industry and enhance the production consistency and quality and safety level of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology went to Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Automotive Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (JAC) from the 30th to the 31st to conduct supervision and inspection on the product safety assurance capabilities and production consistency of road motor vehicle manufacturing enterprises. It is reported that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to deeply carry out actions to enhance production consistency and quality of road motor vehicle products, further strengthen the management of access review and testing verification for "radical" innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle manufacturers to thoroughly investigate product safety risk hazards, strengthen product testing verification and safety assessment, standardize marketing and publicity practices, safeguard the bottom line of product safety, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. (Xinhua) [China Securities Regulatory Commission Approves Coke Options Registration] Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make thorough preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index declined, dropping 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the US dollar index fell, down 1.37% for the month. According to The New York Times, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings held by the US Fed, a move that could trigger significant shockwaves and would mark the biggest change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed's 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed the idea of adjusting the meeting frequency at this week's Fed meeting. The people said that at the meeting this week, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it must hold each year, as well as the timetable for such an adjustment. Warsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting schedule at this week's meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Warsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, advocating for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said that Warsh's press conference performance was “weaker than expected” and expected that the US Fed’s “hawkish pivot” would materialize in September, at which point there could be three consecutive rate hikes. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience of US economic activity has been offset by Warsh's failure to translate his tough inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk that the US Fed falls behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in September was 65%, a pullback from 82% a week earlier. (Wall Street CN) Three US Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflation pressures, indicating that the internal pressure on Fed Chairman Warsh to act is mounting. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they were concerned that, although the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation situation now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, saying that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the US Fed’s 2% target unless the US Fed raises rates; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to run above target until an unexpected shock occurs. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes, not just a single increase, to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said, “A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take more aggressive action.” Hammack said that if the US Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She said, “Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will pull back to our target on its own.” (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said that whether the interest rate level set by the US Fed is sufficient to curb inflation is an “open question,” and he also said he is uncertain whether he would join the three other regional Fed presidents who voted for a rate hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said, “I think there is a good case for tightening policy and taking back some of the rate cuts from last year.”He noted that given the slowdown in inflation data in June, "I think one can also argue... there is still time before the next meeting to determine whether the current policy stance is appropriate." Barkin will not be a voting member on interest rate decisions until next year. Furthermore, Barkin was skeptical about whether the labour market has strengthened significantly. He stated, "It does not feel like the labour market is tight." He also pointed out that the transmission of price increases through the economy is uneven, making it difficult to assess how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, China July PPI YoY, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid next week to: SpaceX releasing its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures posted sharp gains, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. On the weekly chart, WTI crude oil futures fell 2.81% over the week, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.7%. On the monthly chart, WTI crude oil futures surged 24.89% over the month, and Brent crude oil surged 24.8%. The decline in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil transportation. Uncertainty remains over when crude oil supply from the Middle East will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June completely broke down in early July. From mid-to-late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical chokepoint for energy trade, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian refineries destroyed approximately 30% to 45% of Russia's active refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/barrel and sending global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wallstreetcn) The international shipping information platform "Marine Traffic" reported on July 31 that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on July 30 dropped to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. Data from the platform showed that all 5 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the channel on the Iranian side. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CBS News citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date against Iranian energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. On August 1, Iranian media cited an Iranian official as saying that Iran believes an attack by the US and Israel on Iranian infrastructure would be a "reckless act," and that Iran has formulated a comprehensive plan to respond to "any reckless action by the US." (Jinshi Data APP) According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, Yemen's Houthi forces stated that in implementing the strategy of "blockade against blockade," 8 Saudi oil tankers have been forced to change course and detour around the Cape of Good Hope after maritime restrictions were imposed on Saudi oil vessels. (Jinshi Data APP) Meanwhile, ICE data showed that for the week ending July 28, Brent crude speculators reduced net long positions by 6,948 lots to 185,083 lots. Diesel speculators increased net long positions by 2,654 lots to 87,194 lots. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended reading:

This week, ferrous metals drifted lower overall, with iron ore and rebar leading the decline and hitting new stage lows. The core driver of the downturn was a confluence of multiple bearish factors: First, the Politburo meeting ended, and the outcome fell short of market expectations, causing sentiment support to collapse. Second, cost support collapsed in a stepwise manner. The second round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and the market widely expects a third round to come. Combined with hot metal output falling to a trough, global iron ore shipments staying high, and port inventories being ample, the decline in raw material prices allowed the negative feedback loop to transmit smoothly. Finally, end-use demand was seasonally sluggish, with high temperatures and rainfall dampening construction. Total inventories of ferrous metals continued to accumulate, spot transactions were sluggish, and the supply-demand imbalance persisted......

The iron ore market showed a lackluster performance on the spot today. The DCE main contract I2609 closed at 715 yuan/ton, down 3.31% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell by 15-20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

HRC prices weakened from the previous week, and overall transactions declined WoW. Supply side, the impact from rolling line maintenance decreased WoW, lifting overall HRC production. Demand side, apparent demand dropped WoW. Inventory side, total HRC inventory rose by 77,500 mt WoW, while mill inventory fell by 6,200 mt WoW. Social inventory, SMM statistics of 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) showed HRC social inventory at 4.4773 million mt, up 83,700 mt WoW (+1.90% WoW) and up 40.27 mt YoY on a calendar basis. By region, except the northeast that saw slight destocking, all other markets experienced inventory buildup, with east China showing relatively large fluctuations. Cost side, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support. Looking ahead, SMM expects hot metal production to bottom out and rebound, and with the US-Iran conflict pushing up ocean freight rates, iron ore prices may see a slight rebound. Meanwhile, a third round of coke price cuts still lingers, leaving overall cost support moderate. From a fundamental perspective, the HRC supply-demand imbalance continues to build, and combined with the PBoC Politburo meeting expectations falling short, there is no clear upward price catalyst. However, given that prices are already at relatively low levels, downside room is limited. HRC prices are expected to move sideways at the bottom next week, with the most-traded HRC contract trading in the 3,200-3,390 range.

This week, domestic iron ore concentrates prices edged down slightly. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi of Hebei remained relatively stable; in Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping of western Liaoning, prices fell by 1-5 yuan/mt; in east China, prices declined by 10-15 yuan/mt. Although an accident occurred at a major mine in east China this week, the impact on local production was limited. Other regional ore processors mostly maintained normal production as planned. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mills declined due to production restrictions, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Overall, domestic concentrates prices showed a slight downtrend this week. Looking ahead to next week, some ore processors in northern China are expected to resume production, and total iron ore concentrates output may edge up slightly, but the tight supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly. On the demand side, hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces is expected to see a slight increase. Domestic concentrates prices are expected to edge higher slightly overall. [SMM Iron Ore]

Today, iron ore futures moved weakly. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 716 yuan/mt, down 1.31% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port were basically flat from the previous trading day. Trader activity was low, steel mills held a strong wait-and-see stance, and overall trading volume was thin. According to SMM, this week the total iron ore inventory at 35 main ports nationwide was 146.81 million mt, up 1.89 million mt WoW, marking another inventory buildup. During the same period, daily average port pick-up volume edged down 65,000 mt to 3.14 million mt, indicating that fundamental pressure has not yet eased. On the sentiment front, the planned strike at Port Hedland is expected to begin on August 9, but against the backdrop of escalating US-Iran war, market risk aversion sentiment is strong, not enough to support a price rebound. Therefore, overall, iron ore prices may continue to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. [SMM Steel]

On July 31, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$159.37/dmt, down $4.61/dmt from the previous -$154.76/dmt. In July, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) was -$148.28/dmt, down $26.84/dmt from June's -$121.44/dmt. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, the copper concentrates spot market saw more index-based deals, with some mines conducting tenders. In terms of spot deals, there were five index-deducted transactions this week, two of which used only the SMM index as a benchmark. A trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at the SMM index minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of Sierra Gorda at the index minus $23/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at the SMM and FM index flat minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5. There were market rumors that a trader sold 20,000 mt of Q4 clean ore at the index minus $20 to a smelter, of which 10,000 mt of Carmen ore with silver at 20g was priced at 90%. Also, rumors that a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of Q4 cargoes at the index minus $25/dmt. In terms of mine tenders, the results of a large mine's tender were out, with market rumors that 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the smelter side at -$220/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the trader side at around -$275/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); additionally, 10,000 mt of QB was traded on the trader side at prices ranging from -$275/dmt to -$280/dmt for October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option). Furthermore, 10,000 mt of BISHA and around 2,000 mt of Black Mountain for September-October shipment were tendered, with the results currently unknown. Overall, this week's spot deals continued to be mainly in the index-minus format, with deductions remaining at deep levels; mine tender prices fell further. Smelters maintained restocking demand but remained relatively limited in accepting deeply negative-priced cargoes. On July 29, First Quantum Minerals said it was accelerating preparations to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama, having already begun processing stockpiled ore in advance and added around 1,000 jobs. The company stated that formal negotiations with the Panamanian government over the future arrangements of the mine are gradually approaching. In May this year, the company started the first of three grinding lines, processing approximately 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore in Q2 and producing 3,216 mt of copper concentrates. Cobre Panama currently has about 38 million mt of stockpiled ore, expected to recover approximately 70,000 mt of copper, supporting about 12 months of production at the current processing pace. The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 30,000 to 40,000 mt, all from stockpiled ore processing. Meanwhile, the number of mine employees increased from about 2,350 in early April to approximately 3,000 at end-June, to support equipment commissioning, maintenance, and operational preparations. Over half of the new hires came from communities near the mine site, with female employees accounting for about 17% of new recruits. Currently, the Panamanian government is studying various options for restarting the mine, including establishing a state-owned mining company to jointly operate the mine with First Quantum, or a model where First Quantum holds a 60% to 65% interest and the government holds the remainder. The company had previously suspended the $20 billion international arbitration against the Panamanian government, creating conditions for continued negotiations between the two parties. On July 29, Glencore released its H1 2026 production report, showing that its own-sourced copper production in H1 was 397,000 mt, up 15% YoY from 343,900 mt. The production growth was mainly driven by increased mined volumes and improved feed grades in African copper operations, along with higher grades at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, partially offset by the planned closure of the Mount Isa copper mine in Australia in July 2025. Glencore maintained its 2026 own-sourced copper production guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 mt, with approximately 53% of annual copper production expected to be released in H2. The company stated that ore recovery rates and mining performance at the Collahuasi copper mine are expected to improve in H2, supporting a QoQ increase in copper production. Furthermore, although Glencore completed the sale of the Kidd Mine on June 1, reducing annual copper production by about 11,000 mt, the company has not lowered its full-year guidance. On July 28, Rio Tinto announced its H1 2026 results, with underlying earnings reaching $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY, the highest level for the same period in nearly four years. Within this, the copper and aluminum businesses, driven by demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, and the energy transition, together contributed about 56% of profit, surpassing the iron ore business for the first time to become the company's primary earnings driver. By business, copper EBITDA surged 84% YoY to $5.7 billion; iron ore EBITDA was $6.8 billion, down 1% YoY. The company stated that copper production growth and improved production efficiency in H1 were key drivers of earnings growth, while also benefiting from higher copper prices. As of July 31, 2026, SMM 11-port copper concentrates inventory stood at 664,400 mt in physical content, up 2,900 mt in physical content from July 24. The increases mainly came from Jinzhou Port and Qingdao Port, up 30,000 mt and 10,000 mt WoW, respectively; the decreases mainly came from Nanjing Port and Qinzhou Port, down 10,000 mt and 19,000 mt WoW, respectively. Overall inventory was basically flat.

SMM, July 31 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.72%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead fell 0.99%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%. SHFE tin rose 1.89%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.76%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract extended the decline from the previous trading day, falling another 3.44%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.88%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.76%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.86%. Stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.93%. For base metals in the overseas market, as of 11:38, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper and LME aluminum edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME lead fell 0.29%, LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.23%. For precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.68%, COMEX silver fell 0.74%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.73%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.23% to 1,722 points. As of 11:38 on July 31, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,790 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,690 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Recently working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, 2026-2030] Zhou Hongwei, deputy director of the Department of National Economy under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand (2026-2030). Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to more forcefully and effectively expand domestic demand. [NBS: July manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, business sentiment pulled back somewhat; high-tech manufacturing continued to expand] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with business sentiment pulling back somewhat. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing business sentiment from the previous month. In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, suggesting that China's enterprise production and business activities slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, said that in July, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Due to a high base from the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector earlier and the onset of the traditional production off-season for some manufacturing industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, maintaining relatively fast expansion and driving the manufacturing sector towards new and better development; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming sectors were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, reflecting a pullback in business sentiment. [PBOC net injected 45 billion yuan via reverse repos today, open market operations net injected 421.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC today conducted 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 45 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos each day from the 29th to the 31st. With a total of 1,020.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing this week, a net injection of 421.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 data app) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 100.22. Data released by the US government on Thursday showed that the US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The annual PCE inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from the three-year high of 4.1% in May. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The cooling of inflation in June was mainly due to lower oil prices after the fragile temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. The Fed considers the PCE price index, especially the core PCE, to be the most accurate indicator of US inflation trends. Currently, it shows that US inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 16.9%. Citigroup economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said that Fed Chairman Warsh hinted that other inflation indicators beyond the PCE price index will play a larger role in monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. The core PCE inflation rate in June fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. By comparison, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6%, closer to the Fed's 2% target. Hollenhorst and Clark said: "In the coming months, the market should see more clearly that the broader inflation measures Warsh is focusing on do not show worrisome signs of accelerating inflation." The market currently expects a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the two economists believe this expectation may be wrong. (Jin10 data app) Other currencies: [BOJ voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, will hike rates as conditions warrant] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, as expected, after having raised the benchmark rate to the highest since 1995 last month. BOJ board member Hajime Takata dissented, calling for a 25-bps hike, arguing that the situation has entered a new phase and the BOJ needs to adopt a flexible approach to deal with upside price risks and changes in overseas financial conditions. The BOJ said it will continue to raise rates in accordance with economic, price developments and financial conditions, that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, financial conditions remain accommodative, and significant downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to prices have both diminished. In its latest economic outlook, the BOJ lowered its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, and raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%. (Jin10 data) Data: Today will see the release of US Q2 Employment Cost Index quarterly rate, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate, Switzerland June real retail sales annual rate, France July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Canada May GDP monthly rate, Eurozone July CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and Japan's central bank target rate through July 31, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China will open a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30, Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia reported earnings, the Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo held a monetary policy press conference. In crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets declined, with US crude down 1.58% and Brent crude down 1.24%. The market saw a mix of bullish and bearish factors: mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran posed geopolitical risks, while recently rebounded shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Traders remained cautious overall, with limited willingness to make big directional bets. (Wall Street Insights) The previously slowed crude oil transshipment services in the Strait of Hormuz have recently become active again, helping move millions of barrels of crude oil out of the strait. As hostilities in the Middle East escalate, this mode of transportation once again plays a critical role. This transshipment model emerged during the most intense period of conflict, becoming a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Relevant vessels transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf—typically turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, after which the receiving tanker delivers the crude oil to buyers around the world. Although crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped has played an important role in alleviating market concerns about oil price surges. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said that for at least two shipping enterprises involved in Strait of Hormuz transport, transshipment volumes are now near levels seen before the escalation of hostilities. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Reuters, citing shipping data firm Kpler, 25 commercial cargo vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, with only two oil tankers passing through. Out of the 25 vessels transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 18 entered the waterway while 7 departed. These included 2 VLCCs, 1 Suezmax tanker, and 5 Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, both vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were sailing empty. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Iron ore prices drifted lower this week, with the most-traded contract I2609 leading the decline in ferrous metals, hitting an intraday low of 706 yuan/mt , a new year-to-date low. This round of decline was driven by multiple factors: on one hand, policy expectations from the Politburo meeting fell through , causing market sentiment to weaken markedly, and speculative funds accelerated their exit; on the other hand, fundamental pressure continued to intensify —last week, port arrivals of iron ore surged 54% WoW, while in the Tangshan area, stricter environmental protection-driven production restrictions led to a roughly 20% reduction in hot metal output at some steel mills, with daily average hot metal production falling 16,000 mt, clearly shrinking demand and significantly accumulating port inventories. Under the combined weight of weak fundamentals and bearish sentiment , the most-traded contract posted a maximum intraday decline of over 3%. Compared to the drastic correction in futures, port spot cargoes showed relative resilience , with a markedly narrower decline. Particularly noteworthy is that some ore types with structurally tight supply , such as mixed fines and Ukrainian concentrates, saw relatively small price declines due to limited tradeable resources, demonstrating some grade premium resilience. Chart: MMI 61% Port Spot Price Index Source: SMM Domestic iron ore concentrates prices edged down this week. From a regional perspective, prices in areas such as Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei were relatively stable; those in Chaoyang, Beipiao, Jianping, etc. in western Liaoning fell by 1-5 yuan/mt; while east China saw declines of 10-15 yuan/mt. In the Tangshan area, the domestic ore market was generally stable this week, with the delivered price, tax included, of 66% grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis closing at 980–985 yuan/mt. Local iron ore concentrates supply remained relatively tight, providing some support to ore prices; steel mills, affected by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, saw weak daily consumption demand and mostly maintained inventory destocking strategies, with supply-demand bargaining persisting in the market. Although an accident occurred at a major mine in east China, its impact on local production was limited, and mining and selecting operations in other areas mostly proceeded normally as planned. Demand side, hot metal output at steel mills declined due to production restrictions, weakening support for iron ore concentrates. Overall, domestic concentrates prices showed a slight downward trend this week. Chart: Larger Decline in Imported Ore Widened Domestic-Imported Ore Price Spread Outlook for next week Imported ore: Looking ahead to next week, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the Tangshan area are gradually being lifted, and blast furnaces at steel mills are resuming production one after another. Meanwhile, coke prices continued to decline, improving steel mill profitability somewhat, and hot metal output is expected to extend its modest rebound in the near term, providing some support to iron ore demand. However, global iron ore shipments simultaneously rebounded, with a more pronounced increase. Supply-side pressure was significantly greater than demand pressure. Under a loose supply-demand balance, port inventories are expected to continue accumulating, thus capping the upside room for ore prices. Cost side, affected by the escalating US-Iran conflict, rising crude oil prices drove a slight rebound in ocean freight rates, providing some cost support for iron ore prices. Additionally, market pessimism was somewhat released this week, and ore prices dropped more than expected, creating a need for a technical rebound in the short term. But considering overall weak end-use demand, it is hard to provide sustained upward momentum. Ore prices next week are expected to consolidate and stage a corrective rebound, with limited upside room. Domestic Ore: Looking ahead to next week, some ore dressing plants in parts of North China are expected to resume production, and overall iron ore concentrate output may rebound slightly. However, the tight supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly; demand side, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces is expected to see a small increase. Overall, domestic concentrate prices may inch up slightly.