At the hosted by SMM, Ouyang Yichang, SMM secondary copper industry research analyst, shared insights on the topic of "Analysis of Japan's Secondary Copper Market." He noted that, according to SMM, Japan's copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot cargo procurement are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, in order to adapt to the persistently tight market landscape. Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Key Drivers Behind Japan's Leading Position in Asia 1 Precision Sorting: Exceptional classification accuracy ensures high-quality scrap output. 2 Well-Established Infrastructure: A mature "urban mine" system and advanced logistics provide a highly reliable supply foundation. 3 Strategic Geographical Advantage: Proximity to China (accelerating capital turnover), while serving as a key trans-Pacific logistics hub connecting the Americas and Asia. 4 Favorable Trade and Tax Policies: Zero export tariffs and transparent regulations ensure seamless global operations. 5 Commercial Reliability: High standards of packaging and business ethics minimize quality claims. Japan's Average Unit Price of Copper Scrap Significantly Leads the Top Five Global Exporters In 2025, Japan and Thailand each accounted for approximately 7% of global copper scrap exports. However, Japan commanded the highest average export price among major peers ($8,112/mt), thanks to a substantial quality premium. This price spread revealed fundamental differences in product mix. Thailand primarily served as a processing hub, with limited high-grade copper scrap output domestically. In contrast, Japan was organically driven by its mature "urban mine" ecosystem, consistently producing high-purity, high-grade materials. Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Rising Trade Volume and Shrinking Net Exports: A Shift Toward Domestic Retention Smelters Drove Copper Scrap Consumption Growth While Downstream Processing Enterprises Saw Declining Usage According to SMM, compared with 2021, processing enterprises' copper scrap usage declined by 8% in 2025. Processing enterprises: Weak downstream demand (automotive, construction) and fierce global competition for high-quality copper scrap severely squeezed domestic processing enterprises, resulting in a sustained 8% decline in their absolute usage. Smelters: Tightened environmental protection and export policies implemented since 2023 restricted the outflow of copper scrap, significantly accelerating this structural "reflux" toward smelters. Combined with the plunge in TC/RC, Japanese smelters were forced to rely on these raw materials to maintain production. Consequently, the share of copper scrap consumed by the smelting segment has maintained an overall upward trend in recent years. Japan's overall scrap supply is contracting; despite robust growth in domestic consumption, the structural decline in net exports is the primary driver. Since the 2021 peak, Japan's total apparent supply of copper scrap has been on an overall downward trend. This indicates structural tightening in domestic scrap generation and social recovery rates, with increasingly scarce available resources. Despite the overall supply contraction, domestic apparent consumption demonstrated strong resilience, as Japanese smelters actively secured local raw materials to maintain production amid plunging TC. This robust local demand is significantly squeezing exports. Net exports have consequently declined structurally to low levels. Japan is shifting from a "resource overflow" model to an "internal absorption" model, which will severely exacerbate raw material shortages for Southeast Asian and Chinese buyers. Bare bright copper payable indicator stays high: supply tightness and China's tax-driven demand outweigh the impact of recent copper price rebound Since early 2026, market copper prices have risen steadily overall; in March, copper prices experienced a periodic pullback, and copper scrap sellers held prices firm with strong willingness to defend price floors, directly driving the bare bright copper payable indicator passively higher. Entering April, futures copper prices rebounded and stabilized at highs, but the copper scrap payment ratio deviated from conventional pricing logic and did not pull back accordingly, remaining firmly in the 98.5%-99.0% range. The core supporting logic lies in: continued tightening of domestic tax regulation, with China's downstream processing enterprises increasingly relying on imported copper scrap to obtain compliant input tax deductions, forming rigid procurement demand; coupled with tight spot copper scrap supply, the dual support of supply and demand underpins the copper scrap payment ratio to stay high. Japan's Scrap Policies Japan's Scrap Policies Regulatory Shift: Building an "Invisible Wall" Although Japan has not explicitly imposed export bans, it strengthens its domestic closed-loop system through a strategic policy combination. For global buyers, this signals a structural shift in the Japanese market going forward: intensified competition, soaring procurement costs, and increasing difficulty in accessing high-quality scrap. Regulatory maturity and standardized transparency are the primary drivers of the "Japan premium." Policy Lag vs. Market Reality: Although the EU Waste Shipment Regulation and potential US export restrictions have not yet been formally enacted, the market has already priced in expectations of future supply contraction, compelling downstream buyers to proactively pivot toward trade hubs with higher compliance and transparency. "Reliability Premium" Logic Emerges: As a pioneer in industry compliance and market transparency, Japan can effectively hedge against risks prevalent in other regions, such as insufficient information transparency and origin rerouting, providing the market with an important safe-haven and pricing anchor function. Outlook and Forecast Strategic Outlook and Forecast Driven by aggressive development targets at both enterprise and national levels, scrap consumption by domestic smelters in Japan is set to experience significant structural growth. According to SMM, the climb in scrap consumption by Japanese smelters is not a short-term cyclical response triggered by declining mine TCs, but rather a fundamental structural transformation underpinned by strong capital strength and long-term commitment. As 2030 ESG-related targets continue to materialize, the trend of retaining domestic scrap for internal use in Japan will deepen further, structurally tightening global circulating scrap supply over the long term and continuously compressing the available sourcing volume for ex-China buyers. Response Logic for the "New Normal" in Japan's Copper Scrap Market Volume and Flow Direction: Steady Decline Net exports of copper scrap will not plunge to zero abruptly, but rather exhibit a sustained structural decline trend. As domestically subsidized capacity comes fully online, exports of high-grade secondary copper such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper will enter a steady contraction trajectory. Pricing Logic: The traditional medium and long-term linkage of "rising copper prices, declining scrap payment ratios" has been structurally reshaped. Under the dual effects of persistently tight copper concentrates supply and China's rigid tax-driven procurement demand providing a floor, the payment ratio for Japan's high-quality copper scrap is expected to establish a long-term upward baseline. Strategic Pivot: Constrained by the upper limit of domestic secondary copper output and tight labor supply, Japanese recycling industry alliances will accelerate their expansion into markets outside China. Japanese enterprises will invest in overseas joint venture projects to solidify downstream processing capacity deployment while maintaining Japanese-led control over raw material supply chains. According to SMM analysis, the current Japanese copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot purchases are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, thereby adapting to the persistently tight market landscape.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone Overall Product Price Center Shifted Slightly Upward, Weekly Market Trading Atmosphere Was Subdued] This week, the transaction center of China's silicone DMC market shifted slightly upward, with the mainstream transaction range at 14,800-15,000 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. Regional quotations: monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; monomer enterprises in north-west China lowered their online store prices by 800 yuan/mt to 15,100 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations in other regions were mainly at 15,000-15,200 yuan/mt. Currently, mid- and downstream enterprises were primarily drawing down inventory, so overall market transactions this week were limited to small volumes of just-in-time procurement.

[SMM Analysis: Futures in the Doldrums with Rigid Demand Providing Support, Stainless Steel Social Inventory Saw Mild Destocking] On May 14, SMM reported that stainless steel social inventory continued its mild destocking trend this week. Total inventory across the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan pulled back slightly, dropping from 955,200 mt on May 7, 2026 to 947,100 mt on May 14, down 0.85% WoW, showing mild destocking characteristics. SS futures were in the doldrums this week. On Thursday, SS futures dropped sharply due to uncertainties surrounding the Fed Chairman transition policy, putting macro sentiment under pressure. However, the spot market showed strong resilience against declines, with stainless steel spot prices falling only narrowly and not following futures to swing wildly. Supply side, steel mills' earlier cargo distribution pace was relatively low, limiting market arrival pressure; traders were cautious in purchasing high-priced cargoes, and speculative purchasing willingness in the market remained weak. Demand side, rigid demand transactions in the market were moderate this week, with end-user rigid demand maintaining a steady pace to pick up goods, largely unaffected by the weak futures performance. Rigid demand resilience supported continued destocking, jointly driving social inventory to pull back slightly this week. Overall, despite futures being under pressure and ongoing macro uncertainties this week, firm spot prices, low steel mill arrivals, and resilient downstream rigid demand collectively drove mild inventory destocking. Currently, the high production schedule pattern at steel mills has not changed, supply-side pressure persists, and futures may maintain wild swings amid the uncertain macro environment. Combined with the traditional peak consumption season gradually...

[China Iron Ore Brief] Iron ore concentrates prices in the eastern Liaoning region increased slightly. Currently, the delivery-to-factory price of 65-grade dry-basis iron ore concentrates, tax included, is 917 yuan/mt. In early May, national safety and environmental protection inspection teams visited Liaoning. According to feedback from local mines and beneficiation plants, some had suspended production, and overall market circulating resources were relatively tight. On the demand side, steel mills were mostly producing normally as planned, with a local steel mill planning to commission a new blast furnace in mid-to-late May. Overall, demand for iron ore concentrates remains supported.

Iron ore futures showed a weak-then-strong pattern today. The most-traded contract I2609 ultimately closed at 817 yuan/mt, basically flat compared to the previous trading day. Port spot prices were down 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders offered prices in line with the market; steel mills purchased as needed; overall spot trading sentiment was lukewarm. SMM ten-port data by product category showed that total port inventory fell 1.7 million mt MoM from pre-holiday levels, with fines, concentrates, and lump ore all destocking. By major product, inventories of Jimblebar fines, blended fines, Mac fines, and super special fines declined notably, while inventories of IOCJ fines, PB fines, PB lump, and Newman fines increased somewhat, posing certain pressure on future prices. On the macro front, market attention today focused on Trump's visit to China. As of now, no positive news has emerged, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent news on futures. Ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Overall Decline in Rare Earth Prices Driven by Futures Disruptions] The Pr-Nd oxide market was in the doldrums overall this week. Affected by price fluctuations in futures, traders made shipments at low prices. Meanwhile, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment intensified the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream metal plants, with poor purchase willingness. Market trading activity was very sluggish. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices had fluctuated downward to 745,000-750,000 yuan/mt.

SMM May 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 1.07%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.3%. SHFE lead rose 0.27%, SHFE zinc rose 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 0.87%. SHFE nickel fell 1.06%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.3%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.01%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.49%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.25%, hot-rolled coil edged down, and stainless steel fell 1.52%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.8%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all declined. LME copper fell 1.08%. LME aluminum fell 0.9%, LME lead edged up 0.02%. LME zinc edged down. LME tin fell 2.76%. LME nickel fell 1.57%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver fell 2.2%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.04%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.6%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.28%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.27%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 4.32%, closing at 2,434 points. As of 11:41 on May 14, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Nickel: On May 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,350 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front [Xi Jinping: The Essence of China-US Economic and Trade Relations Is Mutual Benefit and Win-Win] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that facts have repeatedly proven that there are no winners in a trade war, the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, and equal consultation is the only correct choice when facing differences and frictions. Yesterday, the economic and trade teams of both sides reached overall balanced and positive outcomes, which is good news for the people of both countries and for the world. Both sides should work together to maintain the current hard-won positive momentum. (CCTV News) [Xi Jinping: Making 2026 a Historic and Landmark Year for China-US Relations to Build on the Past and Open Up the Future] On the morning of May 14, President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping emphasized that the common interests between China and the US outweigh their differences, that the success of each country represents an opportunity for the other, and that stability in China-US relations benefits the world. Both sides should be partners rather than rivals, achieving mutual success and shared prosperity, and forging a path of proper engagement between major countries in the new era. He looked forward to exchanging views with President Trump on major issues concerning both countries and the world, jointly steering the great ship of China-US relations on the right course, and making 2026 a historic and landmark year for China-US relations to build on the past and open up the future. (Xinhua News Agency) China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Withdrawal of 26.5 Billion Yuan for the Day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 26.5 billion yuan was achieved for the day. US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.48. Driven by a sharp climb in energy prices amid Middle East conflicts, the US April Producer Price Index (PPI) significantly exceeded expectations, posting the largest increase in over three years, and market bets on a Fed rate hike warmed notably. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed: US April PPI came in at 6% YoY, the highest level since December 2022. Expectations were 4.8%, with the prior reading at 4%. US April PPI rose 1.4% MoM, the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Expectations were 0.5%, with the prior reading at 0.5%. US April core PPI came in at 5.2% YoY (expectations: 4.3%, prior: 3.8%). US April core PPI rose 1% MoM (expectations: 0.3%, prior: 0.1%). The money market has now priced in approximately 24 basis points of rate hikes ahead of the Fed's June 2027 policy meeting, up from 21 basis points at Tuesday's close. The market priced in roughly a 50% probability of one rate hike within 2026. (Wallstreetcn) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market has now priced in a probability of over 30% for a rate hike by December. Following the unexpectedly strong US April PPI data, the market believes it is now even harder for the US Fed to justify any interest rate cuts this year. In April, the PPI rose 1.4%, well above economists’ consensus expectations of 0.5%, indicating inflationary pressures were stronger than expected and reinforcing the market’s trend toward repricing the interest-rate path. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of the UK Q1 preliminary annual GDP growth rate, the UK March three-month GDP monthly rate, the UK March manufacturing production monthly rate, Canada March wholesale sales monthly rate, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, the US April retail sales monthly rate, the US April import price index monthly rate, and other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by the local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan taking part in a dialogue on the energy industry; 2028 FOMC voting member and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering remarks on “payments innovation and community banks”; and US President Trump paying a state visit to China. On crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.4%. The market continued to focus on developments in the US-Iran situation. US Vice President Vance said on Wednesday local time: “On the negotiations with Iran, I think progress is being made. Right now we’re focused on the diplomatic track, and I spoke this morning with Special Envoy Witkoff and Kushner. The fundamental issue in the talks is whether we can make enough progress to meet the red lines set by Trump. That red line is very simple. He needs to be confident that we have put in place sufficient safeguards to ensure Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.” Commenting on the previously released CPI data, Vance said: “Last month’s inflation data wasn’t ideal. The President, I, and the entire team care about the financial situation of the American people.” (Jin10 Data) OPEC’s monthly report showed that Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil production in April fell to 6.316 million barrels, the lowest since 1990. Saudi Arabia also reported to OPEC that “actual market supply,” excluding the portion injected into storage, was slightly higher than production, reaching a daily average of 6.879 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn) Hunter Hunt, grandson of Texas oil tycoon H.L. Hunt, worried that damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East could lead to a decline in oil production over the next few years. Hunt discussed many Iran-war-related issues, including production shutdowns, refinery damage, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil had once been transported. “This is literally the nightmare that no one wants to see in their plans," Hunt said on Wednesday. Hunt rarely speaks publicly. He runs the 91-year-old Hunt Oil Company, which operates globally, including in Yemen and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. (Jin Shi Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~

According to SMM, an Indonesian NPI producer concluded a deal on May 14 for 12,000 mt of high-grade nickel pig iron, with nickel grade at 11% and the transaction price at 1,160 yuan/mtu on a port-pickup basis.

Today, the DCE Iron ore futures fluctuated upward today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 820 yuan/mt, up 0.31% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 3-5 yuan from the previous day. Traders showed low enthusiasm in offering; steel mills made few inquiries