In March, China's manganese ore market trended upward MoM, driven by the resonance of multiple cost factors outside China. South African ore led the gains, with South African semi-carbonate at Tianjin port up 10.42% MoM and South African high-iron ore up 8.77% MoM, making them the core varieties leading the gains. Other manganese ore varieties also posted varying degrees of increases. The core drivers of this rally came from geopolitical factors and rising costs outside China, compounded by mild port inventory pressure and marginal improvement in demand. The market overall held up well.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coke producers had relatively small losses and moderate production enthusiasm, with coke supply remaining at high levels. Coupled with strong downstream demand, coke producers' coke inventory stayed at low levels. Demand side, steel mills' daily average hot metal production edged up, strengthening rigid demand for coke, and most steel mills currently showed moderate purchasing enthusiasm. In summary, coke fundamentals exhibited a tight balance, but cost support is expected to weaken, and the short-term coke market is likely to hold up well with a generally stable with slight rise trend.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Some Module Makers Looking to Hold Prices Firm, Silicon Metal in the Doldrums] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.5 yuan/kg. Weekend market prices remained temporarily stable. The market is currently approaching its lows, providing some price support, but the surplus remains significant, and downstream buyers still have a mindset to push for lower prices.

As of April 10, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 19,700 mt, an increase of approximately 3,000 mt WoW. This week, lead prices held up well, with SHFE lead once approaching 16,900 yuan/mt. Suppliers actively made shipments, and primary lead smelters in south China switched to shipping at discounts. Spot order quotations were quoted at premiums of approximately -50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. However, after lead prices rose, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened enthusiasm to purchase. Apart from just-in-time procurement, they made no additional purchases. Smelters faced increasing difficulty in making shipments, leading to a buildup in in-factory inventory. In addition, next week is the delivery week for the SHFE lead 2605 contract, and some suppliers intend to transfer inventory and ship to delivery warehouses. It is expected that smelters' inventory pressure will ease relatively going forward.

[Demand Continues to Recover, Zinc Oxide Production Keeps Rising] High prices suppressed downstream order-taking, and some enterprises saw continued accumulation of finished product inventories, with inventory pressure increasing. Production starts rose WoW during the week, mainly driven by the gradual recovery of orders across downstream sectors, which boosted overall production capacity utilization of enterprises...

[Silicon Metal Prices Remained Stagnant at Low Levels]: The silicon metal market remained stagnant with a weak tone this week, with price centers for some specifications shifting lower. As of April 9, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; and #3303 silicon was at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract moved sideways around 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt over the past week, as the silicon metal market was under pressure with narrow price fluctuations.

SMM, April 9: Dealers in Anhui reported that e-bike lead-acid battery replacement demand was sluggish, with slow digestion of battery inventories. Meanwhile, lead prices rose compared to March, pushing up battery production costs. The battery wholesale market has not yet launched sales promotions as it typically does during the off-season, with the mainstream model 48V20Ah currently priced at 390-400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that the e-bike lead-acid battery market entered the consumption off-season, with declining dealer purchasing enthusiasm. To ease finished product inventory pressure, production in April plans to be reduced by approximately 10% compared to March, and raw material lead is primarily procured through long-term contracts. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that e-bike lead-acid battery market demand turned sluggish, with finished product orders in April already significantly lower than in March. To avoid inventory accumulation, factories took a three-day holiday for the Qingming Festival, and production is currently on a produce-based-on-sales basis.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] In terms of supply, coking costs declined slightly recently, coke producers' profitability recovered somewhat, production remained relatively stable, and coke producers' shipments were smooth, with coke inventory showing a downward trend. On the demand side, finished steel market sales improved, steel mill profits increased, and coupled with the steady rise in daily average hot metal production at steel mills, rigid demand for coke strengthened. In summary, the fundamental landscape remained in a tight balance, and the coke market may hold up well and be generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Spot silicon metal prices trended weaker yesterday. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. The SI2605 contract closed at 8,260 yuan/mt yesterday. The decline in silicon prices stimulated the release of some rigid demand orders from downstream buyers and traders. With weak supply and demand, silicon prices consolidated at lows. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34.5-37.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline recently, and bearish sentiment persisted in the market. Some individual transactions below current mainstream transaction prices emerged. Polysilicon inventory pressure remained significant, exerting pressure on future prices.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] In terms of supply, coke producers' profits have recovered notably, production enthusiasm was moderate, operations remained stable, and coke sales were smooth with no significant inventory pressure for the time being. Demand side, steel mills maintained normal production, daily average blast furnace hot metal output increased slightly, and rigid demand for coke increased. However, steel mill profitability was generally weak, with only some low-inventory steel mills actively procuring, while most steel mills slowed down their coke procurement pace. In summary, bullish sentiment has faded notably, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.