Discounts in the three regions widened to varying degrees from the beginning of the year to May, which was directly related to the sustained suppression of spot circulation by high inventory earlier. After entering June, as the destocking inflection point has gradually been established, premiums and discounts in the three regions have shown a divergent recovery trend...

According to SMM data, China's aluminum billet inventory in major consumption regions fell to 154,500 mt on June 11, down 8,000 mt from last Thursday and down 5,500 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace further slowing. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet withdrawals recorded 51,700 mt during June 1–8, down 4,100 mt WoW.

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

SMM June 12 news: [SMM] On June 12, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,140 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt, with a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the current-month contract and a discount of 85 yuan/mt against the next-month contract (unit: yuan/mt). Today, futures continued to rise sharply, and pressure on spot aluminum in South China intensified. Inventory destocking remained strong, which would have been a support, but absolute prices and the spot-futures price spread had both cumulatively risen to relatively high levels. As the weekend approached, the urge to sell and cash in intensified again. In the morning, the stance of holding prices firm gradually loosened, with discounts widening. Mainstream quotations returned to a small discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, with circulating cargoes mainly at discounts. Demand side, downstream fear of high prices began to emerge, and the momentum of rushing to buy amid continuous price rises weakened, but it had not completely exited, still providing bottom support. Traders, meanwhile, sold more than they bought, only purchasing as needed, with limited replenishment. Overall trading was moderate. Spot aluminum transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 0 to 40 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract.

SMM June 12 News: As of June 11, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 20,400 mt, down 2,550 mt WoW from June 4. Lead prices pulled back significantly this week, prompting battery enterprises to restock on dips for rigid demand, driving inventory destocking. However, end-user new battery orders were weak, overall purchase willingness was soft, and the degree of destocking was limited. If lead prices remain weak next week, smelter production will decline further, and coupled with downstream production halts due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, market supply and demand will contract simultaneously. Secondary lead finished product inventories are expected to avoid a significant inventory buildup.

[Many Macro Disturbances, SHFE/LME Zinc Price Ratio Fluctuating Around 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated around 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, on the macro front, geopolitical conflicts were repeated, and the short-term escalation risk eased temporarily. The market priced in a 25 basis point rate hike this year, and LME zinc center shifted lower and then fluctuated.

[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Express] Looking ahead to next week, new orders will be gradually scheduled for production, and coupled with sustained destocking of finished product inventories to support production, the operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to remain stable. SMM estimates that next week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises will rise by 0.89 percentage point WoW.

[SMM Analysis] Slight Stainless Steel Inventory Destocking Amid Weak Off-Season Demand and Proactive Clearing by Traders SMM, June 11 – This week, stainless steel social inventories extended the previous destocking trend, with total inventory pulling back slightly again. Total inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined from 940,400 mt on June 4, 2026, to 932,900 mt on June 11, down 0.8% WoW. Under the off-season conditions, inventories continued to show a slight destocking trend. This week, macro headwinds outside China continued to intensify, and SS futures declined in successive sessions, dragging stainless steel spot prices down in tandem. Overall market pessimism deepened. On top of this, the industry formally entered the traditional consumption off-season. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users stayed high, actual just-in-time procurement was relatively weak, and overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. The demand side would have created inventory buildup pressure. However, the supply side and the circulation sector provided a strong offset, effectively neutralizing the inventory accumulation risk caused by weak off-season demand. On one hand, multiple stainless steel mills gradually implemented production cuts and maintenance during the month, leading to downward adjustments in production schedules. On the other hand, the persistent decline in futures heightened industry concerns about the near-term outlook. Traders widely held pessimistic expectations, and the market mainly operated with an approach of proactive selling and reducing their own inventories. Price concessions to clear inventory were common, accelerating the turnover of spot goods in the market. Amid the opposing tug-of-war between supply and demand, stainless steel social inventories pulled back slightly further this week. On the whole, weak just-in-time demand during the off-season and persistently sluggish transactions were potential bearish factors for inventory buildup, while the marginal supply contraction from steel mill maintenance and traders' concentrated proactive inventory clearing were the factors behind this week's ...

[Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Destocking Accelerates Significantly, Relative High Level Still Caps Aluminum Price Upside Room] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver. This Thursday, the destocking pace of China’s social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated notably, effectively easing the earlier high inventory pressure. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively prominent, which is expected to cap the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

SMM, June 10: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,090 yuan/mt on the day. In early trading, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,055-16,095 yuan/mt, dipping to a low of 16,055 yuan/mt. The price then fluctuated higher from mid-session to the close, ending at 16,130 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick, down 40 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Secondary lead smelters, weighed down by losses, chose to hold prices firm and delay shipments, while the cost of scrap battery raw materials provided bottom-level cost support. Overall end-use market consumption was sluggish; the recovery in consumption during the traditional peak season fell short of market expectations, and downstream enterprises took a conservative approach to procurement and stockpiling. With the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaching, lead ingot procurement demand from battery plants remained sluggish, the pace of lead ingot inventory destocking was slow, inventory levels tended to stabilize, and the likelihood of inventory shifting into accumulation later on increased. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.