At the hosted by SMM, Ouyang Yichang, SMM secondary copper industry research analyst, shared insights on the topic of "Analysis of Japan's Secondary Copper Market." He noted that, according to SMM, Japan's copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot cargo procurement are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, in order to adapt to the persistently tight market landscape. Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Key Drivers Behind Japan's Leading Position in Asia 1 Precision Sorting: Exceptional classification accuracy ensures high-quality scrap output. 2 Well-Established Infrastructure: A mature "urban mine" system and advanced logistics provide a highly reliable supply foundation. 3 Strategic Geographical Advantage: Proximity to China (accelerating capital turnover), while serving as a key trans-Pacific logistics hub connecting the Americas and Asia. 4 Favorable Trade and Tax Policies: Zero export tariffs and transparent regulations ensure seamless global operations. 5 Commercial Reliability: High standards of packaging and business ethics minimize quality claims. Japan's Average Unit Price of Copper Scrap Significantly Leads the Top Five Global Exporters In 2025, Japan and Thailand each accounted for approximately 7% of global copper scrap exports. However, Japan commanded the highest average export price among major peers ($8,112/mt), thanks to a substantial quality premium. This price spread revealed fundamental differences in product mix. Thailand primarily served as a processing hub, with limited high-grade copper scrap output domestically. In contrast, Japan was organically driven by its mature "urban mine" ecosystem, consistently producing high-purity, high-grade materials. Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Rising Trade Volume and Shrinking Net Exports: A Shift Toward Domestic Retention Smelters Drove Copper Scrap Consumption Growth While Downstream Processing Enterprises Saw Declining Usage According to SMM, compared with 2021, processing enterprises' copper scrap usage declined by 8% in 2025. Processing enterprises: Weak downstream demand (automotive, construction) and fierce global competition for high-quality copper scrap severely squeezed domestic processing enterprises, resulting in a sustained 8% decline in their absolute usage. Smelters: Tightened environmental protection and export policies implemented since 2023 restricted the outflow of copper scrap, significantly accelerating this structural "reflux" toward smelters. Combined with the plunge in TC/RC, Japanese smelters were forced to rely on these raw materials to maintain production. Consequently, the share of copper scrap consumed by the smelting segment has maintained an overall upward trend in recent years. Japan's overall scrap supply is contracting; despite robust growth in domestic consumption, the structural decline in net exports is the primary driver. Since the 2021 peak, Japan's total apparent supply of copper scrap has been on an overall downward trend. This indicates structural tightening in domestic scrap generation and social recovery rates, with increasingly scarce available resources. Despite the overall supply contraction, domestic apparent consumption demonstrated strong resilience, as Japanese smelters actively secured local raw materials to maintain production amid plunging TC. This robust local demand is significantly squeezing exports. Net exports have consequently declined structurally to low levels. Japan is shifting from a "resource overflow" model to an "internal absorption" model, which will severely exacerbate raw material shortages for Southeast Asian and Chinese buyers. Bare bright copper payable indicator stays high: supply tightness and China's tax-driven demand outweigh the impact of recent copper price rebound Since early 2026, market copper prices have risen steadily overall; in March, copper prices experienced a periodic pullback, and copper scrap sellers held prices firm with strong willingness to defend price floors, directly driving the bare bright copper payable indicator passively higher. Entering April, futures copper prices rebounded and stabilized at highs, but the copper scrap payment ratio deviated from conventional pricing logic and did not pull back accordingly, remaining firmly in the 98.5%-99.0% range. The core supporting logic lies in: continued tightening of domestic tax regulation, with China's downstream processing enterprises increasingly relying on imported copper scrap to obtain compliant input tax deductions, forming rigid procurement demand; coupled with tight spot copper scrap supply, the dual support of supply and demand underpins the copper scrap payment ratio to stay high. Japan's Scrap Policies Japan's Scrap Policies Regulatory Shift: Building an "Invisible Wall" Although Japan has not explicitly imposed export bans, it strengthens its domestic closed-loop system through a strategic policy combination. For global buyers, this signals a structural shift in the Japanese market going forward: intensified competition, soaring procurement costs, and increasing difficulty in accessing high-quality scrap. Regulatory maturity and standardized transparency are the primary drivers of the "Japan premium." Policy Lag vs. Market Reality: Although the EU Waste Shipment Regulation and potential US export restrictions have not yet been formally enacted, the market has already priced in expectations of future supply contraction, compelling downstream buyers to proactively pivot toward trade hubs with higher compliance and transparency. "Reliability Premium" Logic Emerges: As a pioneer in industry compliance and market transparency, Japan can effectively hedge against risks prevalent in other regions, such as insufficient information transparency and origin rerouting, providing the market with an important safe-haven and pricing anchor function. Outlook and Forecast Strategic Outlook and Forecast Driven by aggressive development targets at both enterprise and national levels, scrap consumption by domestic smelters in Japan is set to experience significant structural growth. According to SMM, the climb in scrap consumption by Japanese smelters is not a short-term cyclical response triggered by declining mine TCs, but rather a fundamental structural transformation underpinned by strong capital strength and long-term commitment. As 2030 ESG-related targets continue to materialize, the trend of retaining domestic scrap for internal use in Japan will deepen further, structurally tightening global circulating scrap supply over the long term and continuously compressing the available sourcing volume for ex-China buyers. Response Logic for the "New Normal" in Japan's Copper Scrap Market Volume and Flow Direction: Steady Decline Net exports of copper scrap will not plunge to zero abruptly, but rather exhibit a sustained structural decline trend. As domestically subsidized capacity comes fully online, exports of high-grade secondary copper such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper will enter a steady contraction trajectory. Pricing Logic: The traditional medium and long-term linkage of "rising copper prices, declining scrap payment ratios" has been structurally reshaped. Under the dual effects of persistently tight copper concentrates supply and China's rigid tax-driven procurement demand providing a floor, the payment ratio for Japan's high-quality copper scrap is expected to establish a long-term upward baseline. Strategic Pivot: Constrained by the upper limit of domestic secondary copper output and tight labor supply, Japanese recycling industry alliances will accelerate their expansion into markets outside China. Japanese enterprises will invest in overseas joint venture projects to solidify downstream processing capacity deployment while maintaining Japanese-led control over raw material supply chains. According to SMM analysis, the current Japanese copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot purchases are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, thereby adapting to the persistently tight market landscape.

[SMM Steel] Ternium reported Mexican steel shipments rose 4% y/y to 2 million tonnes in Q1 2026. Q2 shipments are expected to continue improving driven by commercial markets. Several infrastructure projects will drive demand. Higher steel prices partly offset lower shipments. Mexico has strengthened tariff/trade enforcement to mitigate US tariffs and resist low-priced Asian imports. The govt signed a deal with Mexican steelmakers including Ternium to purchase 200,000 tonnes of steel for infrastructure. Ternium expects its Pesqueria cold mill/galvanizing line to near full capacity by October. Slab facilities are progressing as expected.

The UK government is reportedly preparing for the full nationalization of British Steel as negotiations with its owner, Jingye Group, over a £600 million support package for transitioning to Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) have stalled. The move aims to safeguard the Scunthorpe plant’s 3-million-metric-ton (mt) annual capacity and roughly 4,000 jobs. A transition to EAFs would replace the existing blast furnaces, significantly reducing carbon emissions but requiring massive capital expenditure. If nationalized, the state-led management could stabilize the domestic supply of long products for UK infrastructure, though it may lead to a temporary reduction in output during the technological overhaul, tightening regional supply in the medium term.

8. May 2026 The silver market is showing its dynamic side again this Thursday. Spot silver (XAG/USD) jumps around 2 percent higher during the day and is trading clearly above the psychologically important $80 mark . The white metal is thus continuing its recovery following the sharp pullback of recent weeks—and is currently even outperforming its big brother gold. From All-Time High to Correction—and Back Again To put the recent strength into perspective, it’s worth looking back: In January 2026, silver marked a new all-time high at $121.64 per troy ounce, definitively breaking through the long-standing $50 resistance zone. But after this spectacular breakout came disillusionment: with the onset of the Strait of Hormuz conflict in late February, the precious metal came under massive pressure. By early May, silver had plunged around 22 percent from its highs, driven by concerns that central banks might maintain their restrictive course longer in light of rising energy prices. The current movement is noteworthy in this respect: according to Kitco , the silver price rose to $79.92 per ounce on May 8, 2026—a gain of 2.09 percent from the previous day. Silver futures climbed in parallel to $80.625. This is more than a technical reflex: silver is thus trading significantly above the early May level, when the troy ounce was still trading below $73. The Dual Leverage: Safe-Haven and Industrial Metal What distinguishes silver from gold is the metal’s hybrid character. Around half of global silver demand comes from industrial applications—from solar modules to electronics to medical technology. This dual nature explains why silver swings more violently in both directions than gold: in phases of high risk aversion, the safe-haven effect takes hold; in phases of economic expansion, industrial demand picks up. The structural drivers in particular remain intact. Growth impulses continue to come from photovoltaics, electromobility, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure. Several analysts expect industrial demand to exceed supply in 2026 as well. Added to this is a scarcity component the market is underestimating: the lead time for new silver mines is often seven to ten years, and since January 2026, Chinese export restrictions have additionally burdened global supply. Investment demand also remains robust. According to the latest World Silver Survey data, global physical investment demand in 2025/early 2026 was at a multi-year high—driven primarily by Indian investors and a notable shift in European precious metals trading toward silver. The Gold-Silver Ratio Sends Mixed Signals The development of the gold-silver ratio is intriguing, traditionally one of the most important valuation indicators in the precious metals market. Currently, the ratio stands at around 61, after temporarily falling to a low of 43. The historical average ranges between 65 and 75. In other words: silver is neither dramatically undervalued nor clearly overvalued relative to gold. The pronounced relative undervaluation that was the central driver for silver bulls in recent years has largely been worked off. This observation calls for caution. LBBW strategists, for example, argue that sustained outperformance of silver versus gold is rather unlikely given the weak global economy and high industrial dependence. Those investing in silver are therefore no longer just buying the hope of ratio normalization, but are increasingly betting on a classic cyclical upswing. Technical Analysis: The Next Critical Levels From a technical perspective, silver stands at a technically delicate point. The first resistance runs at $81.81, followed by $82.50; a breakthrough would unlock the next price target at $84. On the downside, the central support lies at $73.14, followed by $72 and $70.90. As long as silver holds above the $73 region, the overall picture remains constructive. Rally Launch or Overextended Reflex? The honest answer is: both are possible—and that’s precisely what makes silver so attractive yet risky in the current environment. Arguments for a new upward thrust include structural supply scarcity, sustained investment demand, and the prospect that the Fed could return to loose monetary policy in the medium term. Once gold resumes its uptrend, silver historically tends to follow at significantly higher speed—the classic high-beta pattern. Arguments against include the fragile geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, the still restrictive monetary policy, and the risk that an economic slowdown could dampen industrial demand. The recent price behavior—a loss of around 22 percent in just a few weeks—also demonstrates how painful this metal’s volatility can be. Conclusion for investors: Silver remains the most exciting precious metal in 2026—but also the most demanding. The recent rebound above $80 is an initial bullish signal that makes a technical bottom formation more likely. However, a sustainable trend reversal requires breaking the $82 mark. Those entering should be aware that short-term fluctuations of 5 to 10 percent in either direction are normal. For strategically oriented precious metals investors, this changes nothing about the fundamental attractiveness—on the contrary: corrections like those of recent weeks have historically often been the better entry windows. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-back-above-critical-level-why-the-metal-is-currently-outperforming-gold/

The European Commission revealed plans on April 23, 2026, to restrict funding for PV projects using inverters from "high-risk" countries, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This ban affects projects funded by the EIB and EIF, as well as grid-connected projects in neighboring regions. Citing cybersecurity threats to critical infrastructure, EU officials argue that inverters act as the "brain" of power grids and require tighter oversight. While switching to non-Chinese suppliers like Huawei or Sungrow may increase total project costs by less than 2%, the EU is moving forward with a phased-out approach scheduled to fully take effect by April 2027.

Latest IRENA data reveals that Palestine's cumulative solar capacity reached 308 MW by the end of 2025, a modest increase of 5 MW year-on-year. Energy head Ayman Ismail emphasized that expanding solar is vital for improving supply reliability. During the program launch, President Mustafa also issued an urgent call for international support in reconstructing Gaza's infrastructure. He stressed that Gaza's prolonged energy crisis remains a critical challenge that cannot be ignored in future recovery efforts.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,522.5/mt, fluctuated downward to $13,484.5/mt in early trading, then experienced wild swings reaching a high of $13,583/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,535.5/mt, up 1.59%, with trading volume at 29,500 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots, down 1,154 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,500 yuan/mt, rose to 104,580 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to 103,690 yuan/mt, moved sideways near the end of the session to finally close at 104,200 yuan/mt, up 0.53%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 208,000 lots, down 1,584 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions.

[Supply-Demand Structure Maintains Healthy Balance; GO Silicon Steel Prices May Hold Up Well Next Week with Generally Stable with Slight Rise Trend] Recently, ferrous metals futures fluctuated upward, with a strong overall bullish atmosphere in commodities. Combined with multiple policies and projects in the power industry chain, this provided strong sentiment support for the GO silicon steel market. At the current stage, price transmission pace across the industry was smooth, with upstream and downstream price adjustments well-connected and no significant bottlenecks. Downstream transformer and power equipment manufacturing enterprises maintained stable operating rates, with production pace steady and orderly. Driven by the continued advancement of power grid infrastructure expansion and new energy supporting projects, end-user just-in-time procurement remained robust. Many traders and downstream producers restocked raw material inventory in moderate quantities at low prices.

SMM May 8: In the first week after the holiday, prices of most cobalt products remained stable. Spot refined cobalt prices also held steady after rising 3,500 yuan/mt on the first trading day post-holiday. Meanwhile, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday. The market currently holds an optimistic view on downstream production schedules for May. Under these circumstances, how will cobalt series products perform? SMM compiled the relevant price changes of cobalt series products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, spot refined cobalt prices rose post-holiday and then maintained a fluctuating trend this week. As of May 8, spot refined cobalt prices rose to 422,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,500 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt from 422,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day before the holiday, a gain of 0.83%. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters maintained parity; traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to accelerate capital turnover. On the demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued to maintain just-in-need restocking strategies, strictly controlling raw material inventory risks. From the price ratio perspective, the metal price spread between refined cobalt prices and low-priced cobalt salts has narrowed significantly, and enterprises' willingness to produce refined cobalt through re-dissolution has pulled back accordingly. In the short term, refined cobalt prices are expected to move sideways, and future price rises still need effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 8, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained at 93,000-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt, flat compared with the April 30 quote. Supply and demand side, mainstream cobalt sulphate brand price centers remained in the range of 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that previously offered discounts for shipments have slightly raised their quotes, and low-priced resources below 90,000 yuan/mt have decreased notably. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still consuming previous inventory overall, with weak purchase willingness to enter the market, and only a few with just-in-need requirements restocked in small quantities at low prices. However, some Co3O4 enterprises have recently increased inquiry activities, and procurement sentiment showed signs of recovery. Production schedule side, ternary and LCO enterprises both saw restorative increases in May production schedules MoM. It is expected that as downstream gradually initiates restocking, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased recovery rebound. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot prices edged up 250 yuan/mt on May 8, quoted at 114,200-117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,600 yuan/mt. In terms of market performance, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot market generally reported scarce inquiries. On the supply side, shipments from some top-tier players declined significantly recently, with liquidity under pressure and quotes slightly loosened; while small and medium-sized producers had already lowered quotes earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and have gradually stabilized recently, with very limited downside room for further price cuts. On the demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, affected by weak demand, faced significant shipment pressure themselves, with weak purchase willingness for cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments showed restocking willingness recently as inventory continued to be depleted. Overall, the market still lacks clear momentum for a price breakthrough. Although occasional low-price transactions occurred, constrained by enterprise performance pressure, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall market. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices have limited downside room, with raw material costs providing strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with substantive changes likely to wait until mid-to-late May. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday Co3O4 spot prices remained stable. As of May 8, Co3O4 spot prices were maintained at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Spot market, according to SMM, the post-holiday Co3O4 market continued the sluggish trend from before the holiday. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but as cobalt intermediate products were in a phase of tight supply and cobalt chloride prices remained firm, effective cost support was provided for Co3O4 prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mainly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a neutral level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the core variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Considering that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring phased changes. Raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices remained stable post-holiday. As of May 8, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices were maintained at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, according to SMM, most suppliers held relatively optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with offers continuing to stay above $26/lb. On the demand side, there was no significant change. Affected by insufficient momentum for cobalt salt prices to follow the upward trend, the market maintained only small volumes of just-in-time procurement, with intended transaction prices fluctuating around $25.8/lb. Shipping side, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transportation. In April, only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings, with arrivals expected from May to June. Dragged by tight shipping capacity on African routes, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. News side, recently, multiple enterprises along the cobalt industry chain released their Q1 earnings reports. Tengyuan Cobalt reported that the company achieved revenue of 2.559 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 75.13% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 531 million yuan, up 330.11% YoY. In addition, the company also released its 2025 annual report, showing total revenue of 8.34 billion yuan in 2025, up 27.47% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 11.11 yuan, up 62.11% YoY. Meanwhile, the gross margin of its main products reached 27.73%, up 5.74% YoY, and cobalt production and sales hit new historical highs. Regarding the reasons for the company's strong performance growth during the reporting period, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that first, the company operated steadily and established a diversified raw material procurement system with strong supply security capabilities. In particular, the stable supply of secondary resources or recycled raw materials effectively hedged against the impact of fluctuations in primary ore procurement, effectively enhancing supply chain resilience and providing support for performance growth. Second, as capacity from fundraising investment projects was gradually released, and benefiting from YoY increases in market prices of metals such as cobalt and copper, the company's product production, sales, and profitability improved significantly, with economies of scale becoming more evident. Third, the company continued to promote lean management reform, comprehensively implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, enhanced operational efficiency through strict cost control, and continuously optimized its client structure, strengthening overall profitability. As of the end of Q1 2026, Tengyuan Cobalt had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content of cobalt products (including 8,000 mt of refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content of nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content of manganese products, 60,000 mt of copper products, 20,000 mt of ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt of Co3O4, and 5,000 mt of lithium carbonate. In addition, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the pricing of its cobalt products such as cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride is based onprices, adjusted according to discount coefficients and price fluctuations. Tengyuan Cobalt also stated that the company's core products have been widely used in traditional end-use sectors such as consumer electronics, NEVs, and aerospace, and are continuously extending into emerging technology fields empowered by AI. In particular, the company's Co3O4 and related product series are primarily used in high-end LCO systems, fully compatible with product terminals requiring high energy density and high stability battery applications. Targeting emerging technology tracks, the company is leveraging its own advantages to actively enter rapidly growing fields such as solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, eVTOL, low-altitude economy, AI computing infrastructure, and high-end energy storage. As emerging markets gradually scale up in the future, the company will rely on its advantages in raw material supply, high-purity manufacturing technology, and client resources to continuously optimize its product mix, consolidating its strengths in traditional sectors while fully benefiting from the growing material demand driven by the development of emerging technology industries. It is also worth noting that as of March 31, 2026, the company's fundraised investment project — the "Annual 30,000 mt Copper and 2,000 mt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Smelter Project" — had passed the reviews of China's Ministry of Commerce and the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and obtained the enterprise overseas investment certificate. The joint venture company (Xincheng New Energy Investment Co., Ltd.) and the project company (Hechuang New Energy Mining Simplified Joint-Stock Company) had been established. Currently, the overall project progress is in line with the planned schedule, with project design, land leveling, and main building civil works completed, and installation of main equipment currently underway. Hanrui Cobalt previously released its Q1 report, stating that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.865 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 24.19% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm at 64.7465 million yuan, up 51.07% YoY. The performance change was mainly attributable to increased sales volume and prices of copper products as well as sales of nickel products.

[SMM Steel] Vietnam’s Vnsteel has inaugurated a new warehouse facility in Khanh Hoa province as part of its strategy to strengthen logistics and distribution in the South Central region. The company said the project will improve supply efficiency for distributors, contractors, and infrastructure projects while reducing delivery times and transportation costs. Vnsteel currently operates steel production facilities with combined capacity exceeding 1 million mt per year and a deep-water port system capable of handling vessels up to 50,000 dwt.