The escalating conflict in the Middle East has driven international oil prices sharply higher, a trend that has deeply unsettled Wall Street. Wall Street is concerned that US inflation could reaccelerate as a result, forcing the US Fed to delay interest rate cuts and even shift its policy direction toward rate hikes. Bank of America revealed that "whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year" has become a key question its clients have frequently asked in recent days. BofA noted that although the possibility of a rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out, three conditions would need to be met for one to occur: the labour market remains stable, inflation worsens further, and Powell continues to serve as Fed Chairman.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

The US Fed raised its GDP growth expectations across the board while also raising its core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year. The US Fed’s FOMC economic projections showed that the median GDP growth expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively (vs. 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% expected last December). The median core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 were 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0%, respectively (vs. 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0% expected last December).

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

According to SMM data, during the second half of the traditional "Golden March" peak consumption season (March 16 - March 20, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2605) trended lower from its highs under the dual pressure of macroeconomic headwinds and tepid actual demand. By the close on March 20, the contract retreated to 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt), down 125 yuan/mt (approx. $18/mt) from last Friday's close of 14,275 yuan/mt (approx. $2,069/mt). The market's core feature this week was the marginal weakening of previous bullish factors: international macro signals tilted hawkish, raw material upward momentum stalled, and the substantive recovery of end-user demand during the peak season remained lackluster, prompting a rational pullback in futures prices after hitting resistance. Macro-Economy: Divergence Between Global Hawkishness and Chinese Resilience On the macroeconomic front, a significant divergence emerged between global and Chinese economic data and policy directions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve ushered in a "Super Central Bank Week," deciding to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Influenced by developments in the Middle East and sticky inflation, the Fed's latest dot plot—despite maintaining expectations for one rate cut this year and next—revealed a distinctly hawkish tilt. Market bets on rate cuts for the entire year were slashed to less than 11 basis points. The dashed hopes for loose dollar liquidity weighed on the overall valuation of the base metals sector. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released January-February economic data showing a stable start to the year. Value-added industrial output grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, though real estate development investment still fell by 11.1% YoY. This structural divergence indicates a certain resilience in Chinese manufacturing, but the drag from the property sector continues to cap the upward elasticity of end-user consumption. Fundamentals: Destocking Continues, But Spot Market Feels Lukewarm Fundamentally, social inventories maintained a destocking trend, but the spot market still lacked vigor. The latest SMM data shows social inventories falling further to 979,300 mt this week, a decrease of 18,800 mt from last week's 998,100 mt. The continuous decline in inventories sent a positive industry signal, stabilizing market sentiment to some extent. However, the spot market still felt cold. Overall quotes remained stable, and end-user procurement strictly followed a just-in-time purchasing model, failing to exhibit the across-the-board boom expected during a peak season and leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, although the destocking trend is preserved, constrained by high absolute inventory levels and the anticipated supply increment from March steel mill resumptions, traders are maintaining a steady pace of shipments without resorting to aggressive panic selling. Costs: High-Level Loosening Pauses Cost-Driven Logic The cost side also showed signs of loosening from its highs. As of March 20, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes ended their previous unilateral rally, edging down to 1,084 yuan/mtu (approx. $157/mtu), while high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,650 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,254/50 mt). With the pullback in futures prices and the sustained caution of steel mills regarding high-priced raw materials, NPI faced resistance in breaching the 1,100 yuan mark. The stabilization of raw material prices at high levels, coupled with slight price concessions, has temporarily alleviated the upward pressure on steel mills' cost centers, bringing the previously strong "cost-driven" logic to a temporary halt. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week entered a "deep water" zone where peak season expectations are repeatedly tested against reality. The Fed's hawkish stance pressured macro sentiment, while the "tepid" state of just-in-time end-user demand left fundamentals lacking intrinsic upward momentum. However, two consecutive weeks of steady destocking and stable spot quotes have effectively limited the depth of the market's correction. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to seek a balance between "high inventories + supply increments" and "continuous destocking + just-in-time demand floor." The key focus will be whether the destocking slope reverses due to concentrated arrivals at steel mills. In the short term, the most-traded SS contract is expected to shift into a broad range-bound trend.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 88,950 yuan/mt, touched a session high of 89,110 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower all the way, hitting a low of 87,330 yuan/mt near the close before finally settling at 88,060 yuan/mt, down 1.16%. Open interest stood at 5,712 lots, down 80 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,375 lots, up 2,090 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to 0.7%, but PCE inflation and job openings data still showed resilience, raising concerns over stagflation in the economy; meanwhile, after the subpoena against Powell was dismissed, the Department of Justice was set to appeal, which may delay the appointment process for Warsh. In the Middle East, the US military had bombed Iran's Kharg Island and was expected to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the US nor Iran intended to cease fire, and the conflict may become prolonged. Iran threatened that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would destroy all US-linked targets. The continued escalation in US-Iran confrontation heightened safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. Fundamentally, arrivals of imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply steadied. Demand side, the pullback in copper prices effectively stimulated downstream consumption, and rigid demand was gradually released. As of Monday, March 16, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 5.46% WoW from the previous Monday. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 99,720 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 88,060 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 99,508 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 212 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining in a contango structure and widening from the previous day.