SMM, June 7: Metal Market: As of the overnight close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE lead led the gains with a 0.15% increase, SHFE nickel rose by 0.11%, and SHFE tin closed flat at 262,930 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc fell by 0.38%, and alumina dropped by 1.26%. Overseas market base metals collectively declined, with LME aluminum leading the losses with a 1.07% drop. LME tin fell by 0.94%, LME zinc by 0.87%, and LME copper by 0.71%, with the remaining metals experiencing minor fluctuations in their declines. In the ferrous metals series, prices collectively fell overnight. Stainless steel dropped by 0.67%, HRC by 0.68%, rebar and iron ore by over 0.5% (rebar fell by 0.57%, iron ore by 0.56%). In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.13%, and coke by 1.44%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold fell by 1.31% but gained 0.47% on a weekly basis. COMEX silver rose by 0.91%, reaching a high of $36.51/oz during the session, a new high since 2012, and surged 9.39% on a weekly basis. SHFE gold fell by 1.09% but gained 1.42% on a weekly basis. SHFE silver rose by 0.62%, hitting a record high of 8,867 yuan/mt during the session since its listing, and gained 7.64% on a weekly basis. Overnight closing prices as of 7:58 a.m. on June 7 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: On the morning of June 6, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council had a scheduled phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Li Qiang pointed out that China-Canada development represents opportunities, not threats, for each other. There are no fundamental conflicts of interest between the two countries; instead, there is a history of traditional friendship and mutual benefit. He hoped that Canada would work with China in the same direction, view China's development objectively and rationally, achieve mutual success, and jointly promote prosperity. China is willing to work with Canada to jointly uphold multilateralism and free trade, and promote the correct development of economic globalization and the multilateral trading system, injecting more stability into world peace and development. Trudeau stated that Canada-China relations have experienced setbacks in the past few years, and Canada is willing to restart the relationship. He looks forward to resuming high-level exchanges and dialogue mechanisms with China in areas such as diplomacy, economy, and trade, and strengthening practical cooperation in trade, agriculture, energy, and environmental protection. The China National Coal Association and the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association are scheduled to hold the "2025 Summer National Coal Trading Conference" from July 10 to 11. The theme of the conference is "Promoting Efficient Allocation of Resource Elements and Facilitating Dynamic Balance in Coal Supply and Demand." The conference aims to earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continuously enhance the viability, competitiveness, development capacity, and sustainability of the coal industry chain and supply chain, and maintain stable and healthy economic development and overall social stability. The China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhengu jointly released the "Research Report on China's Used Car Price Retention Rate in May 2025." The report points out that the duration of the recent surge in the used car market, driven by trade-in subsidies, is difficult to predict. When considering prices, the price war for new cars in May and June continues, and price reductions may dampen the activity in the used car market. US dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.48% overnight to close at 99.22, while it fell 0.22% on a weekly basis. This is because data showed that US employment growth in May was better than expected, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month, suggesting that the US Fed may wait longer before cutting interest rates. Data from the US Department of Labor showed that employers added 139,000 jobs in May, down from 147,000 in April but exceeding the 130,000 increase forecasted in a survey of economists. Following the data release, financial markets bet that the US Fed would wait until September to cut interest rates, with a total of two rate cuts expected in 2025, reducing the likelihood of a third rate cut. Other currencies: The US dollar rose 0.95% against the Japanese yen to 144.87 yen and 0.26% against the Swiss franc to 0.822. After the data release, the US dollar's gains against these two safe-haven currencies widened. The US dollar rose against the yen and the Swiss franc for the second consecutive week but was still down about 8% and about 9% year-to-date, respectively. Immediately after the employment data release, the euro fell further against the US dollar, closing down 0.43% at 1.1395 US dollars in New York. Year-to-date, the euro has still risen about 10% against the US dollar. After European Central Bank President Lagarde's comments that the ECB was approaching the end of its monetary policy easing cycle, the euro briefly touched a six-week high of 1.14950 US dollars against the US dollar on Thursday and is set to post a weekly gain. Data: Next week, global leading indicators for the turning point of the industrial production cycle in May will be released. In China, data such as the year-on-year PPI for May, the year-on-year CPI for May, the trade balance in yuan for May, the year-on-year import and export growth rate for May, the year-on-year M2 money supply growth rate for May, the year-to-date social financing scale for May, and the year-to-date new yuan-denominated loans for May will be released. In the US, data such as the final value of the wholesale inventory monthly growth rate for April, the 1-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed for May, the 3-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed for May, the 1-year gold price increase expectations of the New York Fed for May, the unadjusted year-on-year CPI for May, the unadjusted year-on-year core CPI for May, the unadjusted year-on-year energy CPI for May, the IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for the US as of June 7, the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, the year-on-year PPI for May, the year-on-year core PPI for May, and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June will be released. In Japan, data such as the revised quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted real GDP for Q1, the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted real GDP for Q1, the revised quarter-on-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted nominal GDP for Q1, and the BSI Large Manufacturing Confidence Index for Q2 will be released. In the UK, data such as the ILO unemployment rate for April, the average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to April, the month-on-month GDP growth rate for April, the month-on-month industrial output growth rate for April, the year-on-year industrial output growth rate for April, the seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for April, and the seasonally adjusted trade balance for April will be released. In the Eurozone, data such as the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for June, the seasonally adjusted trade balance for April, and the total reserve assets for May will be released. Additionally, data such as the month-on-month growth rate of manufacturing sales for April in Canada, the month-on-month growth rate of new manufacturing orders for April in Canada, the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for May in Switzerland, the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8 in Australia, and the final value of the year-on-year CPI for May in Germany will also be released. Additionally, on June 12, US President Trump will raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. Furthermore, the US Fed released the "Quarterly Report on US Financial Accounts." Crude oil: Oil prices in both markets rose overnight, with US crude oil up 2.21% and posting a weekly gain of 6.55%, while Brent crude oil rose 2% and recorded a weekly increase of 6.16%, both achieving their first weekly gains in three weeks, supported by a positive US employment report and optimistic expectations for the US-China trade outlook. Analysts believe that the US employment report has appropriately increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Fed, which could stimulate economic growth and oil demand. As news of tariff negotiations emerged, along with data showing how trade uncertainties and US tariff policies are affecting the global economy, the oil market continued to fluctuate. On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. This is part of a broader strategy by OPEC to regain market share. The organization rejected Saudi Arabia's proposal for a larger production increase. HSBC said in a report, "Based on our estimates, with oil demand rising in the summer and peaking in July-August, matching the growth in OPEC supply, the market appears balanced in Q2/Q3." US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the sixth consecutive week this week, the first such six-week decline since September 2023. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM, June 3: ※Financial Market Performance During the Holiday Metal Market: Domestic Metal Market: The domestic metal market was closed during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. A review of the market performance of domestic base metals on May 30 shows that most domestic metals fell: Domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE nickel rising 1.14%, SHFE tin falling 2.87%, and SHFE copper, SHFE aluminum, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all falling less than 1%. The main alumina contract rose 0.27%. Most ferrous metals series declined on May 30: Iron ore fell 0.43%, rebar fell 0.34%, stainless steel rose 0.12%, and HRC fell 0.81%. In terms of coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 5.28%, and coke fell 2.13%. Overseas Metal Market: The London Metal Exchange (LME) mostly fell on May 30 and rose across the board on June 2. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME metals rose across the board, with LME zinc leading the gains with a 2.41% increase, LME copper rising 1.24%, LME aluminum rising 1%, LME tin and LME nickel both rising over 1%, and LME lead rising 0.87%. Precious Metals: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, COMEX precious metals all rose sharply. COMEX gold rose 2.82%, touching its highest level in over three weeks, as a weaker US dollar and economic uncertainty drove demand for safe-haven assets. COMEX silver rose 5.61%. Hong Kong Stocks: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks weakened on June 2 as tariff issues once again drew market attention. As of the close on June 2, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.57%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.7%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.86%. US Stocks: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the three major US stock indices closed mixed last Friday, with the Dow rising 0.12% and gaining 3.94% in May; the Nasdaq falling 0.32% but rising 9.56% in May; and the S&P 500 falling 0.01% but rising 6.15% in May. As of the close on June 2, the three major US stock indices all rose slightly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.08% to 42,305.48 points, the S&P 500 rising 0.41% to 5,935.94 points, and the Nasdaq rising 0.67% to 19,242.61 points. Metal and Crude Oil Contract Quotes as of 8:20 on June 3 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 30 Macro Aspects Domestic Aspects: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): PMI for May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment] On May 31, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the NBS announced China's PMI for May. Among them, the manufacturing PMI rebounded MoM, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level and a stabilization in economic operations. In May, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM. Looking at the sub-indices, the production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points MoM, rising above the critical point, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing production activities. On the demand side, the new orders index in May was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM. 》Click to view details [This year's sales of consumer goods through trade-in policies have exceeded 1 trillion yuan] According to CCTV News reporters who learned from the Ministry of Commerce, as of now, this year's sales of consumer goods through trade-in policies have exceeded 1 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, the trade-in policies for consumer goods have effectively driven a sustained rebound and improvement in consumption. Ministry of Commerce data shows that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods under the trade-in policies have collectively driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies directly issued to consumers. Among them, there were 4.12 million applications for trade-in subsidies for automobiles; 49.863 million consumers purchased 77.618 million units of 12 major categories of home appliances; 53.529 million consumers purchased 56.629 million units of digital products such as mobile phones; 6.5 million e-bikes were traded in; and 57.626 million orders were placed for home renovation and kitchen and bathroom "upgrades". (CCTV News) [Various regions take multiple measures to strictly prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals] Multiple regions across the country have taken various measures and strengthened controls to strictly prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals. Among them, the "Overall Deployment for Strengthening the Full-Chain Management and Control of Strategic Mineral Exports" by the National Office for Coordination of Export Control Work was issued and implemented after approval in accordance with procedures. Guizhou will strictly adhere to the division of responsibilities outlined in the "Overall Deployment" to carry out relevant work. The relevant competent authorities in Hunan Province have stated that they will earnestly fulfill their local regulatory responsibilities, systematically investigate and establish ledgers for strategic mineral export enterprises in Hunan, guide enterprises in strengthening the construction of compliance systems, enhance enterprises' awareness and capabilities of compliance, and ensure the effective implementation of control measures. Guangxi, on the other hand, will continue to effectively supervise and manage the exploration and mining of national strategic minerals, increase efforts to investigate and punish illegal mining activities such as mining without licenses, mining beyond boundaries, and mining under the guise of exploration, and resolutely prevent the illegal outflow of strategically important minerals through illegal mining. Among them, Wuzhou City in Guangxi and Yunfu City in Guangdong have established a cross-regional cooperation mechanism to combat and rectify illegal activities related to mineral resources. In addition, relevant departments in Jiangxi and Yunnan have also stated that they will unwaveringly implement all tasks in accordance with their respective responsibilities. [MIIT: Intensify Efforts to Rectify "Cut-throat Competition" in the Automotive Industry] In response to the "Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Promoting Healthy Industry Development" issued by the China Automobile Manufacturers Association (CAAM) on May 31, relevant officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that they would intensify efforts to rectify "cut-throat competition" in the automotive industry and resolutely maintain a fair and orderly market environment. [Opposing "Cut-throat Competition" CAAM Issues Important Initiative] CAAM issued the "Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Promoting Healthy Industry Development." In recent years, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has developed rapidly, with the proportion of new NEV sales exceeding 40%. Currently, the overall operation of the industry is showing a steady and improving trend, with market vitality continuing to be released. However, we have also observed that for some time, the industry's profitability has declined. "Cut-throat competition," primarily manifested as disorderly "price wars," is a significant factor contributing to the decline in industry benefits. Continuous investment is needed in product after-sales service guarantees and enterprise innovation and development, while "price wars" seriously affect the normal operations of enterprises, impact the security of the industry chain and supply chain, and drive the industry into a vicious cycle. US Dollar Aspect: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the US dollar index fell by 0.75%, closing at 98.69 as of June 2. New US tariff threats have sparked market concerns about economic uncertainty, putting pressure on the US dollar. According to CCTV News, on May 30 local time, US President Trump stated at a rally in Pennsylvania that he would raise tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. Subsequently, Trump posted on social media platforms that the decision would take effect from June 4. The latest data released by the US shows: The US core PCE price index in April rose 2.5% YoY, the lowest since March 2021, in line with market expectations of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.6%. The US core PCE price index in April rose 0.1% MoM, in line with the estimated increase of 0.1% and up from the previous value of 0%. The final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May was 52, below the expected 52.3 and unchanged from the previous value of 52.3. The market is also closely monitoring the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell and other policymakers this week, seeking clues about the path of US interest rates. Other Currency Aspects: The European Central Bank's (ECB) 25 basis point interest rate cut has been fully priced in by the market and widely anticipated. The final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone was in line with expectations at 49.4, slightly below expectations in Germany at 48.3, and slightly above expectations in France at 49.8. This week, the focus of eurozone data will be on the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Tuesday, with overall and core inflation rates expected to fall to 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively. Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is crucial as policymakers will release new forecasts and provide some insights into interest rate expectations. The market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut and expects at least another 25-basis-point cut by December. The risk lies in that a neutral or hawkish interest rate cut may signal the end of the current easing cycle. (Huitong Finance) Macro Aspects: This week will also see the release of data including Malaysia's manufacturing PMI for May, Australia's current account for Q1, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for May, Switzerland's annual CPI rate for May, the eurozone's preliminary unadjusted annual harmonized CPI for May, the eurozone's unemployment rate for April, the revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders for April, the monthly rate of US factory orders for April, US JOLTs job openings for April, Australia's AIG manufacturing performance index for May, Australia's seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1, Australia's annual GDP growth rate for Q1, Russia's SPGI services PMI for May, the final UK SPGI services PMI for May, the change in US ADP employment for May, Canada's total reserve assets for May, Brazil's seasonally adjusted SPGI services PMI for May, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May, a Q&A session involving 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook attending the "Fed Listens" event, the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the global annual ANZ commodity price index for May, Australia's goods and services trade balance for April, Australia's monthly export growth rate for April, Australia's monthly import growth rate for April, China's Caixin services PMI for May, Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate for May, the global leading indicator for turning points in the industrial production cycle for May (irregular), the number of job cuts announced by US Challenger companies for May, the ECB's main refinancing rate for June, the ECB's deposit facility rate for June, the ECB's marginal lending facility rate for June, the US trade balance for April, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, the number of continuing jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, Canada's trade balance for April, Canada's seasonally adjusted IVEY PMI for May, the global supply chain pressure index for May, Germany's seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output growth rate for April, France's trade balance for April, the final seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for the eurozone in Q1, the monthly retail sales growth rate for the eurozone in April, the monthly leading indicator growth rate for Canada in May, the seasonally adjusted change in US non-farm payrolls for May, the annual growth rate of US average hourly earnings for May, the change in US non-farm payrolls in the private sector for May, the US labor force participation rate for May, the seasonally adjusted change in US manufacturing employment for May, the US unemployment rate for May, the change in Canadian employment for May, the Canadian unemployment rate for May, and China's foreign exchange reserves for May. Notably: South Korea held its presidential election on June 3, with the stock market closed for the day. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange designated 8:55-9:00 on June 3 as the call auction period for all futures and options contracts, with night session trading to resume that evening. Goolsbee, the 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed Chairman, participated in a Q&A session. Fed Chairman Powell delivered opening remarks at an event. South Korea tentatively scheduled its presidential election for June 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech. South Korea held its general election. The Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced its interest rate decision. ECB President Christine Lagarde held a monetary policy press conference. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York. Harker, the 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed Chairman, delivered a speech on the economic outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. In terms of crude oil: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. WTI crude oil increased by 3.7%, while Brent crude oil rose by 4.01%. Despite the OPEC+ group's adherence to its plan to increase production, wildfires raging in oil-producing provinces in Canada threatened supplies, and new US tariff threats put pressure on the US dollar, both of which supported oil prices. As of Monday, wildfires in Alberta, a major oil-producing province in Canada, had affected approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil production. At least two thermal oil sands operators south of the industrial hub of Fort McMurray evacuated workers and halted production over the weekend. OPEC member countries agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, marking the third consecutive month of the same increase. The alliance aims to regain market share and penalize overproducing countries. Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC to implement a final 410,000 bpd increase in August. In a report, the bank stated, "Relatively tight spot oil market fundamentals, strong global manufacturing data, and seasonal support for oil demand during the summer suggest that the expected slowdown in demand is unlikely to be severe enough to prevent production increases when the August production level is decided on July 6." (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM May 10 News: Metal Market: Overnight, metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only LME tin experiencing a decline of 0.27%. LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel all surged by over 2%, with LME lead up 2.11%, LME nickel up 2.03%, and SHFE nickel up 2.05%. LME zinc rose by 1.39%, while the percentage changes of other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 0.5%. In the ferrous metals series, prices generally declined overnight, with only iron ore and stainless steel rising together. Iron ore increased by 0.07%, and stainless steel rose by 0.43%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coke fell by 1.34%, and coking coal dropped by 1.64%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose by 0.7%, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. COMEX silver rose by 0.81%, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.33%, and SHFE silver increased by 0.88%. Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, stated that geographical and currency diversification are key to successfully navigating the current market conditions. Grace Peters, Global Head of Investment Strategy at JPMorgan, also mentioned that under the base case scenario of sustained GDP growth in the US and globally over the next 12 months, gold prices are expected to reach $4,000 per ounce. As of 9:01 on May 10, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew by 2.4% in the First Four Months, with Increased Exports of Integrated Circuits and Automobiles] According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods reached 14.14 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year (the same hereinafter) increase of 2.4%. Exports amounted to 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, while imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. In the first four months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 5.04 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were worth 458.71 billion yuan, up 5.6%; integrated circuits were worth 405.15 billion yuan, up 14.7%; and automobiles were worth 264.98 billion yuan, up 4%. According to CCTV News, Lu Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, stated that since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting a sustained rebound and improvement in China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth trend.The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports turning from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. 》Click to view details SMM has compiled data on the import and export of some metal industry products based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: 》Click to view details US dollar: The US dollar fell 0.22% overnight but gained 0.39% on a weekly basis, recording three consecutive weeks of gains. The first US Fed official to speak after this week's policy meeting reiterated on Friday that with the Trump administration's trade policies exacerbating risks to the economic outlook, current economic uncertainties require patience in monetary policy. US Fed Governor Barr stated that Trump's trade policies could push up inflation, reduce economic growth, and raise the unemployment rate later this year, posing difficult choices for policymakers on which issue to address first. New York Fed President Williams said that, in terms of the current state of US Fed policy, "we are in a good position." He refused to speculate on the direction of monetary policy amid uncertainties. US Fed Governor Kugler said that a healthy economy "gives us time" to wait for more progress in reducing inflationary pressures before considering the next steps. Both Williams and Kugler believe that the current interest rate policy has a modest restraining effect on economic activity. Other currencies: The US dollar rose on a weekly basis against major currencies such as the Swiss franc, yen, and euro, following increased optimism from the US-UK trade deal. The US dollar against the Swiss franc is on track to rise for the fourth consecutive week. The euro against the US dollar is set to fall for the third consecutive week. However, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.17% to $1.125025 in late New York trading on Friday. The US dollar against the yen is set to rise for the third consecutive week but fell 0.39% to 145.355 yen on Friday. The British pound rose against the US dollar and is still on track to record a weekly gain after falling following the announcement of the US-UK trade deal on Thursday. The pound rose 0.50% to $1.3306 in late New York trading. Macro: In China next week, data to be released include the annual rate of M2 money supply in April, China's total social financing from the beginning of the year to April, China's new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to April, the operation scale of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) on May 15, the MLF bid-winning interest rate on May 15, the annual rate of total electricity consumption in April, and other monthly data. In the US, data to be released include the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in April, the 1-year gold price increase expectation of the New York Fed in April, the unadjusted annual rate of CPI in April, the unadjusted annual rate of core CPI in April, the unadjusted annual rate of energy CPI in April, the New York Fed's manufacturing index for May, the New York Fed's 6-month manufacturing expectations index for May, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for May, the annual rate of PPI in April, the annual rate of core PPI in April, the monthly rate of core retail sales in April, the annual rate of retail sales in April, the monthly rate of industrial output in April, the capacity utilisation rate in April, the monthly rate of manufacturing output in April, the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate in April, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of industrial output in April, the initial annualized total of building permits in April, the initial monthly rate of building permits in April, the annual rate of import price index in April, the annualized monthly rate of housing starts in April, the total annualized housing starts in April, and the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May. In Japan, data to be released include the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March based on customs data by the Bank of Japan, the initial value of the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate in Q1, and the initial value of the seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate in Q1. In the UK, data to be released include the March unemployment rate according to ILO standards, the annual rate of average earnings including bonuses for the three months to March, the monthly GDP growth rate in March, the monthly industrial output growth rate in March, the annual industrial output growth rate in March, the seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance in March, the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March, and the initial value of the annual production-based GDP growth rate in Q1. In the eurozone, data to be released include the ZEW economic sentiment index for May, the revised seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q1, the revised seasonally adjusted annual GDP growth rate in Q1, the total reserve assets in April, and the seasonally adjusted trade balance in March. In Australia, data to be released include the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending May 11, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in April, and the change in employed population in April. Data such as the expected inflation rate for the next two years in Q2 in New Zealand, the expected inflation rate for the next year in Q2 in New Zealand, the monthly rate of manufacturing sales in March in Canada, the monthly rate of new manufacturing orders in March in Canada, the ZEW economic sentiment index for May in Germany, and the final annual rate of CPI in March in Germany will also be released. In addition, Fed Governor Kugler is scheduled to deliver a speech. US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event. The US Fed will convene the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on monetary policy and economic research, and is expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's commitment to a monetary policy framework review every five years, until the 16th. The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting, and the Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, will deliver a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with US crude up 1.92% and Brent crude up 1.65%. Weekly gains were also recorded for the first time since mid-April, with US crude up 4.75% and Brent crude up 4.23%. This was supported by the US and the UK reaching a trade agreement, which made investors optimistic about further easing of trade tensions. Alex Hodes, an oil analyst at brokerage firm StoneX, said, "Although the energy market has been bearish, it eventually shed some of the pessimism, and as trade relations began to make progress, optimism re-emerged following the broader market." Marcus McGregor, head of commodity research at asset management company Conning, stated that the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain and largely depends on the US economic trajectory, its trade policies, and the enforcement of sanctions against Iran and Russia. This week, OPEC and its allies, the OPEC+ alliance, plan to increase oil production, which has limited the rise in oil prices. However, a survey showed that OPEC's oil production slightly declined in April due to reduced output in Libya, Venezuela, and Iraq.

[SMM Commentary: Copper Prices Break Through the 80,000 Yuan Mark Amid Mixed Macro Signals and Weak Supply and Demand Fundamentals—How Will the Copper Market Perform?] Amid rising concerns over a US economic recession and the impact of US tariffs clouding the global demand outlook, the US dollar index continued its weakness. Coupled with US non-farm payrolls growth falling short of expectations and February CPI inflation in the US coming in below expectations across the board, market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut have increased. LME and SHFE copper prices initially declined but later rebounded this week. Market expectations for domestic policy support to continue boosting demand, combined with ongoing destocking of domestic copper inventories, have supported copper prices. As of 16:53 on March 14, LME copper rose 0.58% to $9,840/mt, with its weekly performance extending the previous week's gains, up 2.36% so far. SHFE copper increased 1.03% to 80,500 yuan/mt, marking its second consecutive weekly gain with a rise of 2.29% this week.