[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

SMM, March 19: According to market sources, Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Co., Ltd. is expected to offer crude indium ingots for sale on March 19, with indium purity ≥99.00%, approximately 1,000 kg, in accordance with YS/T 1163-2016 Crude Indium. Delivery location: warehouse of Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Co., Ltd. (Industrial Park, Chehe Town, Nandan County, Hechi City). The seller is responsible for loading and weighing, and the freight shall be borne by the buyer. The bidding deadline is before 16:30 on March 19, 2026, and submissions after the deadline will be invalid. No specific transaction details had yet been reported in the market at present.

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Weak Supply and Demand Dominated Magnesium Price Trends, with Structural Divergence Across Segments] This week, trends across various products in China’s magnesium industry chain diverged, while the overall market maintained a core tone of stability with rangebound fluctuations. The stalemate in market supply and demand became more pronounced, with insufficient momentum for a unilateral market move. The upstream dolomite market remained stable. Although a top-tier enterprise in the Wutai region suspended production, ample raw material inventory in place and timely capacity replenishment in major producing areas, coupled with the steady pace of just-in-time procurement by primary magnesium enterprises, kept prices stable without fluctuations. As the core product, magnesium ingot prices in China’s main producing areas consolidated at high levels, and mainstream transaction prices remained stable. Market transactions showed mediocre performance, producers had strong sentiment to hold back sales, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, quotations fluctuated rangebound. On the foreign trade side, FOB quotations loosened slightly. As ocean freight rates pulled back, inquiries from outside China recovered somewhat, and there were expectations for more long-term orders. Supported by raw materials and boosted by incoming foreign trade orders, the magnesium powder market saw firm quotations and held up well. Industry operating rates gradually recovered in March, and support from the demand side became increasingly evident. Magnesium alloy market prices overall remained stable. On the supply side, with top-tier enterprises resuming operations and newly added capacity gradually coming online and releasing volume, downstream buyers mainly focused on just-in-time restocking, presenting a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward. Looking across the entire industry chain, there have been no major changes in current market fundamentals, and in the short term, the market will still likely be dominated by steady fluctuations and localized marginal adjustments.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

As of March 16, tungsten prices in China saw a slight correction, with APT quoted at 1.505 million yuan/mt. The market's fear of high prices was released, entering a phase of rational wait-and-see. Outside China, supply remained persistently tight, with the average APT Rotterdam price at $2,200/mtu, while weekly gains in tungsten scrap prices in India and Europe exceeded 25%.

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

The 2026 SMM (3rd) Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit & Battery Recycling Forum will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from May 11–12, 2026. The summit aims to bring together leading global enterprises, research institutions, industry experts, and policymakers in the fields of renewable metals and battery recycling.

The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) has recently urged the government to permanently remove customs duties on imported scrap and ferroalloys, and to classify chromium as a critical mineral, in order to support the country’s planned expansion of stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt. At the same time, ISSDA has also called for stronger measures to address the impact of low-priced Chinese products, warning that some Chinese material may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. These statements suggest that the Indian stainless steel industry is no longer simply asking for “growth support.” Instead, it has entered a more complex phase, where it wants to accelerate capacity expansion while also defending itself against external competition. Capacity Expansion Is Clear, and India’s Stainless Steel Industry Has Entered a Critical Phase At first glance, these may look like two conflicting policy demands. On the one hand, the industry wants lower import duties on raw materials to reduce production costs. On the other hand, it is asking the government to tighten import restrictions and strengthen trade protection. But when viewed within the broader industry cycle that India’s stainless steel sector is currently going through, these two demands are not contradictory. They are simply two sides of the same expansion cycle. For domestic stainless steel producers in India, the most important goal over the next few years is to build up local supply capacity while domestic demand is still growing. ISSDA has previously estimated that stainless steel demand in India will continue to grow by 7%–8% annually over the next two to three years. Against this backdrop, the industry wants to keep raw material costs as low as possible during the expansion phase, while also preventing low-priced imported finished products from eroding returns before local capacity expansion is complete. In other words, what worries India’s stainless steel industry most right now is not the absence of market demand, but the possibility that demand exists while the gains from expansion are undermined by imports. That is why ISSDA is simultaneously calling for the permanent removal of duties on scrap and ferroalloy imports, while also highlighting the threat posed by low-priced Chinese products. In the industry’s view, lower tariffs on raw materials would improve the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing, while stronger protection on finished products would buy time for local investment, expansion, and capacity ramp-up. This policy logic of “opening the upstream while defending the downstream” is, in essence, a typical industrial development strategy. Raw Material Security Has Become the Core Condition Behind Expansion This also reflects the industry’s growing concern over raw material supply. Scrap and ferroalloys are key inputs for stainless steel production, while chromium is a critical element in the stainless alloy system. ISSDA’s specific call to classify chromium as a critical mineral shows that its focus is no longer limited to short-term price issues, but has shifted toward medium- to long-term resource security. India has long been the world’s largest importer of stainless steel scrap. Data shows that its stainless scrap imports rose to 1.58 million mt in 2025, up significantly from 2024, further underscoring India’s continued reliance on overseas scrap supply. For a country aiming to expand stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt, whether the raw material supply system can scale up in parallel will directly determine whether that expansion can actually be delivered. If import costs for scrap and ferroalloys remain high, or if chromium supply security proves insufficient, then even the most ambitious capacity plans could face rising costs, margin pressure, or slower project execution in practice. From the industry’s perspective, therefore, removing duties on imported raw materials and strengthening critical mineral management are not isolated policy demands. They are essential supporting measures for the broader expansion target. India’s stainless steel industry wants to secure the raw material base first before further releasing capacity, reflecting a deeper concern for supply chain completeness and long-term sustainability. Demand Continues to Grow, but Cheap External Supply Creates Real Pressure On the demand side, India is still seen as one of the most important growth markets for stainless steel consumption globally. With the development of manufacturing, continued infrastructure investment, and upgrading in end-use consumption, India’s stainless steel demand is expected to maintain relatively strong growth, providing a solid foundation for capacity expansion. The challenge, however, is that demand growth does not automatically mean domestic producers will benefit. If most of the incremental demand is captured by imported material, India may see consumption expand without domestic industry benefiting to the same extent. In this context, ISSDA’s concerns over Chinese oversupply spilling into India become particularly sensitive. According to media reports, ISSDA believes China has more than 8 million mt of excess stainless steel melting capacity, and that this material is seeking overseas outlets, with India standing out as one of the most attractive target markets. The reason is straightforward. On the one hand, India is itself a growth market. On the other hand, its domestic supply system is still in the process of expanding and has not yet built an unshakable market barrier, making it more exposed to external supply pressure. For Indian mills, this pressure is not only reflected in price competition, but also in investment expectations. When an industry is in the middle of an expansion phase, companies need a relatively predictable margin environment to support new investments, depreciation costs, and capacity ramp-up. If large volumes of low-priced imports continue to flow in during this period, domestic producers may struggle to convert rising demand into actual returns. The Risk of Rerouted Trade Is One of India’s Bigger Concerns Another important point in ISSDA’s latest statement is the issue of rerouted trade. The association warned that some Chinese steel products may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. This concern is easy to understand. In recent years, amid ongoing global trade friction and stricter origin management, practices such as third-country rerouting, supply chain detours, and origin restructuring have come under increasing scrutiny. For India, this means that even if trade protection measures exist on paper, actual import pressure may not disappear in practice. In other words, what truly concerns the industry is not simply whether tariffs or barriers exist, but whether these measures can actually work as intended. If external supply can continue entering India through more complex trade routes, then the competitive pressure facing domestic producers will not ease in any meaningful way, weakening the real impact of policy protection. India’s Core Objective Is to Turn Demand Advantage Into Industrial Advantage At a deeper level, India’s stainless steel industry is moving from a stage of demand-driven growth to one of broader industrial competition. In the past, discussion of India’s stainless steel market often focused on its consumption growth potential, including its large population base, urbanization, and manufacturing upgrade. But as consumption continues to expand, the question is no longer simply whether demand will grow, but who will ultimately capture that growth. If domestic demand keeps rising while most of the incremental market is filled by imports, India may become a major consumption market without necessarily becoming a true manufacturing powerhouse. What ISSDA is now pushing for is, in effect, the key step needed to turn India’s demand advantage into industrial advantage. That is why the industry is asking the government to lower upstream raw material costs while at the same time strengthening trade defense at the finished-product end. The underlying logic is not simply to reject imports, but to create a more supportive environment for domestic manufacturing to grow and attract investment. The Direction of Future Policy Is Worth Watching Viewed within the broader competitive landscape of the Asian stainless steel market, India’s position is actually becoming quite clear. It does not want to remain merely a consumption market. It wants to become a more complete domestic manufacturing center. That means its policy stance is likely to continue along a dual-track approach: more openness toward key raw materials, and greater caution toward finished-product imports. For the market, there are several developments worth watching. First, whether India will further reduce import duties on scrap and ferroalloys on a long-term basis, or even establish a more stable policy framework for raw material support. Second, whether chromium will be formally included in the country’s critical mineral system, thereby strengthening resource security. Third, whether India will step up anti-dumping, anti-circumvention, and origin-related scrutiny, especially against third-country rerouting paths. If these directions gradually materialize, they could reshape competition in India’s stainless steel market, alter its import structure, and even change broader resource flows across Asia. Conclusion Overall, ISSDA’s latest public stance does not simply signal another trade friction issue. It reflects the broader priorities of India’s stainless steel industry as it enters a new stage: securing raw material supply and cost competitiveness for expansion, while also preventing low-priced external supply from undermining domestic industry during a critical window. Whether India’s stainless steel story can evolve from one of consumption growth into one of manufacturing rise may depend not only on the pace of demand growth itself, but also on whether the government can build a policy mix that effectively balances resources, tariffs, and trade protection in a way that genuinely supports domestic industrial upgrading. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@metal.com +601167087088