SMM Jun 8: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,392 yuan/mt intraday. It edged down slightly early in the session, then moved sideways below the average price line. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and lead prices came under pressure in the afternoon, quickly sliding to a low of 16,305 yuan/mt. In late trading, although there was a slight recovery, the rebound was limited. It finally closed at 16,340 yuan/mt, posting a three-day winning streak, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.40%. This week, operating rates at secondary lead smelters rebounded somewhat, driving the release of incremental market supply. Meanwhile, as the delivery date approached, current lead ingot inventory also rose compared to early June. Against the backdrop of continuously weakening lead prices, secondary lead enterprises actively lowered scrap battery procurement prices, further weakening the support from raw material costs. Combined with sluggish downstream consumption, lead prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,788/mt, touched a high of $13,803/mt at the beginning of the session, then the copper price center continuously moved downward, dipping to $13,499.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,517/mt, a decline of 2.78%. Trading volume reached 25,200 lots, and open interest was 273,000 lots, increasing by 1,576 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded LME copper contract 2607 opened at 104,790 yuan/mt, rose to 105,000 yuan/mt at the start, then fluctuated downward throughout the session, dipping to 103,600 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,800 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.84%. Trading volume reached 62,000 lots, and open interest was 167,000 lots, decreasing by 6,309 lots compared to the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bullish positions.

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $2,015/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours, then moved sideways in a narrow range of $2,006.5-2,012/mt; in the European session, it gradually strengthened on fund buying, touching a high of $2,018.5/mt, but met significant overhead resistance, pulled back toward the close, dipped to $1,999/mt, and finally settled at $1,995/mt. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,380 yuan/mt, briefly surged to 16,455 yuan/mt in early trading before coming under pressure and pulling back. It then fluctuated downward, breaking below the daily average line support, hitting a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 16,405 yuan/mt, ending as a small bearish candlestick, down 30 yuan/mt or 0.18%. On the macro front: Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, Iran responded with missile attacks, and Trump urgently intervened. US May non-farm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 172,000, and the market fully priced in a 25bp rate hike by the Fed before year-end. Trump: There is no reason for the Fed to raise rates; the jobs report is very strong, stocks should go up, and economic growth does not mean inflation. Iran denied that it had agreed to transfer some enriched uranium to a third country. OPEC+ seven countries will raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July. Putin rejected Zelenskiy’s “talks” proposal, saying it was meaningless. Sources: The US government is considering taking stakes in AI companies. The PBOC increased its gold reserves for the 19th straight month, up 320,000 ounces MoM. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing: Resolutely curb pseudo-innovations such as concept hype, complex nesting, excessive speculation, and channel arbitrage. Spot fundamentals: Last Friday, SHFE lead remained weak. Suppliers showed divergent selling attitudes, with some halting shipments, some selling at market, and some holding prices firm. Primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site were quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with ultra-high premiums (against SMM #1 lead) being lowered or shifting from discounts to premiums. In secondary lead, smelters’ losses widened, and most refrained from selling at low prices, with some secondary refined lead quotations at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises continued dip-buying on a need-to basis, but limited rigid demand meant purchasing enthusiasm weakened compared with the previous sharp price decline. Inventories: On June 5, LME lead inventory fell by 2,175 mt to 310,350 mt; as of June 4, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,100 mt, down 1,200 mt from May 28, and up about 300 mt from June 1. Lead price outlook today: Recently, primary and secondary lead enterprises in Henan, Anhui and other regions have concentrated production resumptions, significantly increasing lead ingot supply. However, downstream consumption recovery is slow, enterprises’ purchase willingness is weak, and combined with the off-season and high temperatures, some downstream enterprises plan to suspend production for holidays, further weakening the consumption side. But as lead prices declined, scrap battery prices experienced relatively limited declines due to tight supply, leading to widening losses for secondary lead enterprises, while the cost side still provided some support for lead prices.

This week, ferrous metals diverged, with coking coal and coke extending their strength, iron ore making some concessions, and finished steel moving sideways. Early in the week, rumors about coal mine safety inspections continued to swirl, and expectations of supply tightness intensified, driving coking coal to its daily limit up. Against weak supply-demand fundamentals, iron ore took a path of conceding to coking coal and coke, while finished steel edged higher in a narrow range; later in the week, data on the five major steel products were released, with HRC inventory destocking continuing, the off-season effect on construction steel demand emerging, inventory destocking narrowing, and overall inventory pressure for finished steel also beginning to slowly accumulate......

It is reported that as of June 4, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands stood at 15,800 mt, an increase of 3,500 mt WoW. During the week, in major production areas, primary lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. In the first half of the week, lead prices held up well, which dampened the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises, and coupled with the incremental supply of secondary lead as a substitute, finished product inventories at primary lead enterprises shifted to an uptrend. Meanwhile, in the second half of the week, lead prices reversed course and declined. Some downstream enterprises sought to buy the dip, and market trading activity improved slightly. However, some primary lead enterprises suspended shipments, holding back from selling due to low prices, and the inventory increase remained unchanged.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From a supply-demand perspective, consumption showed improvement compared to earlier. According to SMM, some suppliers reported an increase in downstream enterprise orders. Approaching delivery, the spread between the nearby SHFE copper contracts narrowed slightly. Buoyed by delivery-related support, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm rose somewhat, and Shanghai spot copper premiums edged up. In addition, import losses continued to widen, weakening the impetus for overseas cargo inflows, and supply-side increments were limited. Overall, supported by delivery dynamics, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount next week, with the discount possibly narrowing slightly.

SMM June 4 update: This week, the aluminum fluoride tender price from downstream benchmark enterprises was finalised, and aluminum fluoride prices declined. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained stable, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: This week, China's 97% fluorite wet powder market remained stable, with mainstream delivered transaction prices concentrated at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt, and regional price spreads remained notable. Supply side, as mine operating rates in northern major producing areas continued to recover, domestic spot supply steadily increased; meanwhile, Mongolian imported fluorite cargoes arrived at ports successively and flowed into the market, further exacerbating the loose supply pattern. However, recent coal mine safety accidents in Shanxi triggered market expectations of stricter mine safety and environmental protection supervision, which may cause periodic disruptions to production pace at some mines going forward, and the market still held certain wait-and-see sentiment toward the supply side. Demand side performance remained weak. Downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises, constrained by insufficient operating rates in end-use industries such as refrigerants and fluoropolymers, maintained just-in-time procurement for raw materials, with limited follow-up on large orders, and overall market trading atmosphere was sluggish. Affected by weak raw materials and insufficient end-use demand, the hydrofluoric acid market price center continued to shift downward, further weakening support for the fluorite market. Overall, under the combined influence of multiple bearish factors including domestic supply recovery, continuous supplementation of low-priced imported cargoes, and weak downstream demand, the overall supply-demand pattern remained loose, and fluorite prices are likely to continue weak consolidation in the short term. This week, China's aluminum hydroxide market held up well within a narrow range, with SMM aluminum hydroxide weighted average price at 1,656 yuan/mt, up 0.3% WoW. Upstream cost supported spot quotes, while downstream made purchases on demand with limited transaction volume growth. This week, domestic sulphuric acid stayed high and held up well. High sulphur costs combined with concentrated maintenance at multiple facilities and tight spot supply; although phosphate fertiliser downstream was in the traditional off-season, suppressing room for price increases, just-in-time chemical demand provided a floor, and short-term sulphuric acid prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs with an overall firm pattern. Overall, this week aluminum fluoride's main raw materials were generally stable with slight rise. Rising aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid prices drove the industry's comprehensive cost center upward, and raw material price increases were difficult to pass through smoothly downstream, intensifying pressure on enterprise production costs. Supply side continued the pattern of "rigid high costs—sustained profit pressure—low operating rates." This week, sulphuric acid and aluminum hydroxide prices rose, the industry was generally in a state of losses, enterprise maintenance and flexible production increased, and the industry operating rate remained at a low level of around 40%, with limited effective incremental supply. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained stable at high levels, providing rigid floor demand for aluminum fluoride, but aluminum enterprise procurement was dominated by just-in-time restocking and pushing for lower prices with a wait-and-see approach, with no additional incremental demand for now. Brief comment: Recently, the raw material market was generally stable with a strengthening trend. Within the week, the industry's comprehensive cost center rose, enterprise profit margins continued to be squeezed, and sustained losses dampened production enthusiasm. On the demand side, downstream aluminum enterprises still maintained just-in-time procurement. Within the week, the June benchmark aluminum enterprise aluminum fluoride tender price was officially finalised, down 200-220 yuan/mt WoW. Driven by the tender price reduction, market transaction price center shifted downward accordingly. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in downstream aluminum enterprise procurement pace.

This week, the operating rate of China's downstream aluminum processing industry leaders was recorded at 64%, edging down 0.1 percentage point WoW, with significant divergence across sub-sectors. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy edged up 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%; although supply remained normal, demand recovery was slow, and the rate is expected to hold steady in the short term. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip edged down 0.2 percentage points to 72.0%, with robust export orders offsetting weak domestic demand caused by high aluminum prices. The operating rates of aluminum wire and cable and aluminum extrusion held flat at 68.0% and 57.6% respectively; aluminum wire and cable benefited from a significant increase in aluminum stranded wire exports. Extrusion side, steady growth in home decoration orders partially offset the drag from weak real estate recovery, while industrial extrusion demand remained solid, expected to hold up well in the short term. The operating rates of aluminum foil and secondary aluminum producers declined 0.3 and 1 percentage point respectively to 73.3% and 53.9%, affected by multiple factors including fading peak season, air-conditioner foil drag, bill supervision tightening, and weakening demand, facing sustained downward pressure going forward. Overall, strong exports partially compensated for insufficient domestic demand, but high aluminum prices, cost pressure, and off-season factors continued to constrain the industry's upside room. Primary aluminum alloy: This week, the operating rate of China's industry leaders in primary aluminum alloy rose 1.2 percentage points WoW to 59.4%. Supply side, enterprises maintained normal production schedules overall. Some enterprises saw operating rates rebound recently as prior inventory had been largely depleted. Demand side, the aluminum price center shifted lower this month MoM, but downstream spot order quotes remained generally scarce, with the market primarily executing long-term contracts as usual. As downstream demand recovered slowly, primary aluminum alloy enterprises intensified competition for limited orders, leading to a slight increase in overall inventory. Overall, with aluminum prices maintaining current levels, the stimulus effect on downstream consumption remained limited. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry is expected to stay at current levels, likely remaining stable next week. Aluminum plate/sheet and strip: This week, the operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry leaders edged down 0.2 percentage points WoW to 72.0%. Operations side, plate/sheet, strip and foil industry leaders maintained a generally stable production pace, but disrupted shipment pace had not yet eased due to persistently high aluminum prices and downstream speculative purchasing patterns. Orders side, stable domestic can stock packaging demand provided a floor; ESS sector battery casings, brazing materials and other products maintained high operating rates as downstream orders extended into Q3, forming a key support; auto sheets benefited from MoM rebound in new energy vehicle sales in May and strong exports, with orders recovering at the margin. Export side, a stronger overseas market significantly benefited China's exports, with enterprises reporting export orders already extended to late August and beyond, with full orders on hand. However, the domestic commodity plate market faced a severe situation: aluminum ingot average prices had long operated at a high level of 24,000 yuan/mt, civilian aluminum semis demand contracted sharply, fixed-price engineering orders were widely delayed as picking up goods meant immediate losses, and domestic orders showed signs of weakening. In the short term, although strong exports could offset some weak domestic demand, aluminum price fluctuation risks intensified, and enterprises tended to control production schedule pace while destocking simultaneously. The operating rate of aluminum plate/sheet and strip is expected to be under pressure in June. Aluminum wire and cable: The domestic aluminum wire and cable industry operating rate held steady at 68.0% this week, flat WoW. The industry operating rate stayed high during the week, mainly supported by strong export order activity. Resilient ex-China demand continued to drive enterprise production plans, and near-term industry orders remained focused on aluminum stranded wire export orders. In contrast, domestically, the pace of power grid construction project order placement was slower than expected at the beginning of the year. Recent power grid tenders were dominated by low-voltage and overhead lines, and the marginal boost from order production schedules to operating rates weakened. However, sustained volume growth in export orders effectively filled the gap in domestic demand, and the order structure continued to show a pattern of "strong exports, stable domestic." Under the current dynamic between high export growth and stable domestic demand, industry shipments maintained a dynamic balance, and operating rates are expected to remain resilient in the near term. Aluminum extrusion: The domestic aluminum extrusion operating rate held steady at 57.6% this week, with the industry continuing a mild operating trend overall. On the architectural extrusion side, home renovation orders maintained steady incremental growth recently. Combined with some enterprises having previously secured large-scale project orders such as supertall buildings and corporate headquarters, their volume advantage and longer delivery cycles provided sustained support for industry operations, partially offsetting the drag from weak real estate recovery. On the industrial extrusion side, demand in segments such as power systems, automotive lightweighting, and PV frames remained solid, supporting stable industry operations. Multiple large enterprises reported that May orders remained robust and held an optimistic outlook for June orders. However, some small and mid-sized industrial extrusion enterprises reported that to maintain healthy cash flow, they expect to moderately control order-taking to ease finished product inventory pressure. Some enterprises also proactively declined orders with low processing fees to maintain reasonable margins, leading to slight divergence in industry operations. Overall, off-season characteristics had not yet emerged, and the aluminum extrusion operating rate is expected to continue to hold up well next week. Aluminum foil: The operating rate of aluminum foil industry leaders pulled back 0.3 percentage points WoW to 73.3% this week. At the enterprise operation level, the traditional peak-season effect was gradually fading. Although orders on hand at industry leaders remained ample, structural divergence intensified. On the order side, demand for food packaging foil and pharmaceutical foil was at the tail end of the peak season, and domestic orders were set to face a seasonal pullback. Battery foil, on the other hand, benefited from robust battery end-use demand, with tight production schedules. However, the air-conditioner foil segment faced notable pressure: June household air conditioner domestic sales production schedules were sharply revised down YoY, downstream clients bargained aggressively, hydrophilic foil processing fees were running near cost, and the air-conditioner foil segment entered a downturn earlier than in previous years. In June, the packaging off-season effect and the drag from air-conditioner foil are expected to gradually dominate, with operating rates continuing to pull back. Secondary Aluminum: This week, the operating rate of secondary aluminum industry leaders fell 1 percentage point WoW to 53.9%, mainly weighed down by dual pressures from both the cost and demand sides. Cost side, invoice regulation continued to tighten with an expanded scope, and the shortage of compliant input invoices forced some secondary aluminum producers to cut production, significantly dampening their willingness to operate. Demand side, downstream consumption weakened further after June, with new orders for die-casting remaining sluggish. Although ADC12 prices were raised consecutively at the beginning of the week driven by costs, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high prices, restocking mainly on rigid demand with little willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise, and transaction volumes failed to increase in tandem. Overall, if invoice issues continue to escalate and the off-season deepens further, the industry operating rate still faces downward pressure.

[US Fed Rate on Hold, Geopolitical Tensions Disrupt Short-Term Aluminum Price Movement Pace] The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has not yet been formally reached, and the memorandum of understanding is still being finalised. Short-term geopolitical premiums persist, and tight ex-China supply continues to support a relatively strong LME aluminum pattern. On the domestic front, affected by the recent sharp rise in aluminum prices, spot aluminum procurement sentiment in China weakened, with purchases mainly made on an as-needed basis in small quantities. Inventory side, China's inventory destocking continued but at a limited pace, constraining the upside elasticity of SHFE aluminum, and the LME outperforms SHFE divergence pattern persists in the short term. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to move sideways within a range with LME outperforming SHFE.

Over the past half-century of industrialisation, the global seaborne iron ore market consolidated around a duopoly dominated by Australia's Pilbara region and Brazil's Carajás and Iron Quadrangle districts. However, driven by macroeconomic cycle evolution, a structural shift in China's growth engine, and the steel industry's irreversible push toward low-carbon and green transformation, this traditional supply map is undergoing an unprecedented reshaping. On 26 November 2025, the first commercial vessel loaded with Simandou iron ore departed from the Port of Mabarya, marking the official commissioning of Guinea's Simandou Iron Ore Project — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade greenfield iron ore deposit by reserve. This milestone signals that the African continent, long relegated to secondary status, is progressively emerging as a significant new force in the global ferrous metals market. Africa's iron ore resources are widely regarded as the third-largest iron ore supply region globally, after Brazil's Carajás and Australia's Pilbara. With an estimated 13.8% share of global iron ore resources, and representing the most significant supply-side growth driver over the next five years, shifts in African iron ore dynamics will be a key determinant of international iron ore pricing over the long term. I. Global Iron Ore Market Background According to SMM research data, global iron ore production in 2025 is estimated at approximately 2.472 billion tonnes (bt). Africa contributes roughly 95 million tonnes (Mt), representing close to 4% of global output. As major mining projects progressively come on stream, Africa's iron ore production capacity is forecast to double by 2030, reaching approximately 259 Mt. Assuming no production curtailments elsewhere, Africa's global market share could rise to nearly 10%, while the overall global iron ore supply surplus is projected to widen to approximately 220 Mt. Although the international iron ore market has already entered a prolonged loose supply cycle, the substantive supply shock from African iron ore is expected to materialise gradually over the next five years. In the near term, Africa's estimated incremental shipment of approximately 15 Mt in 2026 — bolstered by its superior high-grade characteristics — is expected to be absorbed relatively smoothly by steelmakers seeking low-carbon blending feedstocks, resulting in a relatively moderate impact on absolute benchmark pricing. The critical inflection point is projected to fall in 2028–2029. As rail and port infrastructure currently under construction in West Africa is fully commissioned, a surge in high-grade iron ore output will exert heavy downward pressure on the right-hand side of the global iron ore cost curve. This will not only systematically compress the iron ore price floor but will trigger intense structural displacement — squeezing the operating margin of low-grade, high-cost producers. The current price downcycle is expected to persist through 2028. When international ore prices breach the USD 90/tonne marginal cost support level, higher-cost non-mainstream small and mid-size mines will be forced into curtailment and exit. The resulting supply shakeout will reshape the global iron ore supply structure into a multi-oligopoly dominated by ultra-large, low-cost operations (including the new African mines), complemented by quality mid-tier producers. II. Africa's Current Market Landscape: South Africa as Dominant Producer, West Africa Expanding Aggressively Building on the global context, this section focuses on Africa's overall iron ore landscape. As the primary driver of supply growth over the next five years, Africa's iron ore production is concentrated in West Africa and South Africa, currently dominated by three key countries. South Africa South Africa is the continent's largest producer, with 2025 output reaching approximately 67 Mt and export shipments maintaining an overwhelming 65% share of total African iron ore exports. However, South Africa's iron ore sector faces structural constraints limiting its organic growth headroom. As other emerging African resource nations commission significant new projects, South Africa's share of total African export volumes is projected to face sustained compression. Mauritania Mauritania is Africa's second-largest iron ore producer, with 2025 output of 15 Mt and export volumes of approximately 12 Mt, representing approximately 12% of the African market. Strategically situated adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean with high-grade iron ore deposits deep within the Sahara Desert, Mauritania possesses highly advantageous geographic and mineralogical characteristics. Its proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets — both in urgent need of green industrial raw materials — provides ideal conditions for the country to become a hub for global green metallurgy capacity relocation. Mauritania is expected to emerge as a highly promising iron ore supply nation going forward. Sierra Leone Sierra Leone is another important regional supply pole, with projected 2025 output also reaching approximately 12 Mt, holding a stable share of approximately 12% in the African export market. Chinese-invested iron ore mines within the country are actively scaling up their operations. Trade Flow Overview Based on full-year 2024 trade data, the proportion of African iron ore shipped to China is relatively low compared to traditional mainstream ore origins, at approximately 60%. The broader Pan-Asian market — encompassing China, Japan, and South Korea — absorbs approximately 70% of total African iron ore shipments. Western European countries, led by the Netherlands and Germany, constitute Africa's core secondary destination, accounting for close to 14% of trade flows. The remaining marginal trade flows are broadly diversified, extending to emerging steelmaking capacity clusters in the Middle East, including Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Key Corporate Players At the corporate level, South Africa's Kumba Iron Ore and Assmang rank as Africa's largest and second-largest iron ore producers, with annual output of approximately 37 Mt and 17 Mt respectively. Kumba Iron Ore: Kumba's mining operations — including the Sishen mine — are globally recognised for producing high-grade fines (Fe >62%) and metallurgically superior premium lump ore (Fe 65.2%). Under the prevailing trend of blast furnace (BF) emission reduction, this type of direct-charge lump ore — which reduces sintering-related carbon emissions — commands strong market demand and a substantial price premium. Assmang: Assmang similarly holds high-quality iron ore assets, operated as a 50:50 joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) and Assore. Its Assmang Fines and Assmang Lump products (Fe 64–65%) are also direct-charge, high-quality materials. However, the company's key bottleneck lies not at the pithead but on the rail. Heavy dependence on Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) for haulage means logistics constraints frequently cap its achievable shipment volumes. SNIM (Société Nationale Industrielle et Minière): Mauritania's state-owned mining company is Africa's third-largest iron ore producer after the two South African majors. Unlike mainstream Australian and Brazilian ores, SNIM products occupy a distinctive niche in terms of physicochemical specifications and market segment. Its most widely traded product, TZFC fines, is characterised by extremely low alumina (Al2O3) and phosphorus (P) content. As an excellent blending ore, major steelmakers regularly blend SNIM fines with high-alumina Australian fines (such as certain Pilbara blend products) to significantly dilute the impurity ratio in the burden, thereby optimising blast furnace performance metrics. III. Africa's Market Transformation: Major Producers Facing Stagnation; Emerging Projects as Primary Growth Drivers Where does future growth lie? According to SMM observations, Africa is expected to undergo a significant structural transformation within the next five years. Multiple large-scale iron ore projects across the continent are currently under construction, with scheduled commissioning prior to 2030. Based on our modelling, African iron ore supply is forecast to grow substantially from the current approximately 95 Mt to 260 Mt over five years — a cumulative increase of 85%. The market structure is also expected to shift from South Africa-dominated Western-oriented exports to a Guinea-led export paradigm. Guinea — Simandou Iron Ore Project The primary growth driver will be Guinea's renowned Simandou iron ore project, jointly developed by multiple entities and representing the world's largest undeveloped high-grade open-pit hematite deposit. The project holds reserves in excess of 5 billion tonnes (bt) and a designed production capacity of 120 Mt per annum, making it the project with the greatest strategic potential to reshape the existing iron ore market structure. Since first ore shipments in late November 2025, cumulative exports from the principal export hub — the Port of Mabarya — reached approximately 1.6 Mt through Q1 2026. Blocks 1 & 2, developed under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), have successfully commenced production, with 2026 capacity expected to reach nameplate and ramp-up to 60 Mt per annum projected over the next two to three years. Blocks 3 & 4, led by Simfer (a Rio Tinto and Baowu joint venture), are forecast to commission in Q1 2026, with estimated 2026 shipments of 5 Mt and a 30-month ramp-up timeline to reach 60 Mt per annum. In aggregate, Guinea is projected to achieve 120 Mt per annum before 2030, becoming the world's second-largest single iron ore project by capacity — second only to Vale's S11D project in Brazil (designed capacity of 200 Mt post-expansion, expected by 2030). Other African Countries — Key Development Projects Other nations — including Liberia, Gabon, Sierra Leone, and the Republic of Congo — all have iron ore projects under development. Projects scheduled for commissioning before 2030 account for a combined planned capacity of approximately 46 Mt. The largest single project is ArcelorMittal Liberia's (AML) Tokadeh Phase II, expected to commission in H2 2026 and reach a nameplate capacity of 20 Mt per annum by year-end, producing iron ore concentrate with an estimated grade exceeding Fe 66%. Given that AML's European steelmaking capacity cannot absorb such a large volume increment in the near term, the majority of Tokadeh's output is expected to enter the international seaborne market, exerting pricing pressure on the iron ore concentrate segment. South Africa — Structural Constraints on Production Growth South Africa's output is expected to remain broadly stable in the 63–67 Mt range, with mild downside risk. The primary underlying cause is the country's heavy dependence on the heavy-haul Sishen–Saldanha Bay rail corridor, operated by Transnet Freight Rail (TFR). In recent years, TFR has suffered a severe reduction in effective haulage capacity due to locomotive fleet shortages, frequent cable theft incidents, and chronic infrastructure underinvestment, materially constraining the rail transport of major bulk commodities including iron ore and coal. In its FY2025 annual results published in February 2026, Kumba Iron Ore — South Africa's dominant iron ore producer — reported total finished goods inventory of 7.5 Mt, up from 6.9 Mt at end-2024. With rail haulage capacity unable to match mine production, South Africa's major iron ore producers have been compelled to stockpile large volumes at mine sites. To avoid inventory saturation, miners have been forced to proactively revise production guidance downward. While producers are actively addressing haulage constraints, the deeply entrenched structural issues on the rail network are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Mauritania — SNIM Long-Term Strategic Growth Blueprint Post-2030, attention turns to SNIM's strategic growth roadmap. Under its Horizon 1 programme, the company plans to raise annual production capacity to 45 Mt by 2031, through the implementation of lean manufacturing practices, equipment and technology upgrades, and the co-development of new mineral reserves. Of this total, 20 Mt will be produced under SNIM's wholly owned capacity, while the remaining 25 Mt will be realised through joint ventures with international capital partners. SNIM has further set a long-term target to expand annual capacity to 80 Mt by 2045 under its Horizon 3 plan. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) — MIFOR (Grand Est Iron Ore Project) On 26 March 2026, the DRC and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding designating the MIFOR project as a priority flagship initiative. The deposit is estimated to hold cumulative resources of 15–20 bt, with an average grade exceeding Fe 60% — a potential scale approximately 2.5 times that of Guinea's Simandou. Phase I capital expenditure is estimated at USD 28.9 billion, encompassing the construction of a heavy-haul railway and the utilisation of Congo River navigation, ultimately linking to a deep-water port at Banana on the Atlantic coast. Phase I design capacity stands at 50 Mt per annum, with a long-term target of scaling to 300 Mt per annum. These projects collectively underscore Africa's inevitable emergence as an indispensable iron ore supply source for the global steel industry. IV. Global Steel Industry Chain Transformation: Can Africa, as a Hub for High-Grade Ore, Enable DRI Production? High-Grade Ore as a DRI Feedstock Advantage Notably, the majority of Africa's current and planned iron ore projects produce ore at average total iron (Fe) grades predominantly above 65%, with extremely low impurity content. This scarce, high-grade ore is the ideal feedstock for the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process. As the DRI-Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) green steel route gains traction across Europe, the Americas, and China, demand for iron ore at Fe 65% and above will grow exponentially on the demand side. This will confer a substantial 'grade premium' on major projects, including South Africa's Kumba, Guinea's Simandou, and other future African producers. Over the longer term, iron ore pricing benchmarks are inexorably shifting away from the traditional Platts 62% Fe index, and African ore producers will gain bargaining leverage when renewing long-term supply agreements, thereby reshaping the global industry chain profit distribution structure. DRI Investment Pipeline in Africa In alignment with global carbon neutrality objectives, international investors — encouraged by local governments — are actively deploying capital into high value-added downstream processing facilities, including DRI plants and high-grade pellet facilities, aimed at leveraging Africa's abundant high-grade iron ore resources and vast renewable energy potential for DRI production. According to SMM observations, Africa is projected to add approximately 20 Mt of DRI capacity by 2030. The largest single project is a Libyan integrated DRI complex, jointly developed by Turkish steelmaker Tosyali and the Libyan National Steel Company, with a total design capacity of 8.1 Mt. China's Decarbonisation Push and the Global Green Steel Transition As China advances its dual carbon targets — carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 — the domestic steelmaking sector is undergoing significant adjustment. The traditional carbon-intensive Blast Furnace–Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) long route faces increasingly stringent capacity replacement policies and environmental regulations. Simultaneously, the global trade system is accelerating the imposition of carbon costs, most notably through the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), compelling global steel supply chains to accelerate the transition from the source toward a low-carbon, ultimately zero-carbon 'green steel' era. In the context of this irreversible transition, the DRI-EAF short-route process has become the most commercially viable decarbonisation pathway. To meet surging global demand for green steel, market projections indicate that global DRI designed production capacity will need to expand by hundreds of millions of tonnes during the 2030s. This scale of expansion will profoundly alter the global steel supply structure: the share of traditional hot metal (pig iron) production will progressively decline, while low-carbon DRI supply will directly determine the competitiveness of major economies in the global green steel market. In particular, 'hydrogen metallurgy' — using green hydrogen to replace natural gas and coking coal as the reductant in iron ore reduction — is widely recognised by the industry as the core technology for achieving ultimate zero-carbon steelmaking. Africa as the Future 'Green Iron' Production Hub Represented by world-class high-grade iron ore projects such as Guinea's Simandou, the progressive commissioning of these mega-mines is expected to inject over 100 Mt of high-grade iron ore per year into the global market, substantially alleviating the global scarcity of DRI-grade ore. More critically, North Africa and West Africa possess world-leading solar and wind energy potential, enabling large-scale, low-cost green hydrogen production in situ. This perfect combination of 'high-grade ore + low-cost green hydrogen' is increasingly inclinng multinational capital and steel majors toward establishing DRI production lines directly on African soil — reducing iron ore to low-carbon Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI) on-site for ocean transport to EAF facilities in Asia and Europe. Africa is thus formally transitioning from its historical role as a raw material exporter to become an indispensable link in the green iron production chain of the future.