[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[Ferromolybdenum Import and Export Information] SMM, March 20: Customs data showed that China imported 240 mt of ferromolybdenum (physical content) in February 2026, up 5.26% YoY and down 16.38% MoM. From January to February, China's cumulative ferromolybdenum imports totaled 527 mt (physical content), down 57.3% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 317 mt of ferromolybdenum (physical content), up 21.92% YoY and down 43.70% MoM. From January to February, China's cumulative ferromolybdenum exports reached 919 mt (physical content), down 25.62% YoY.

[Molybdenum Concentrate Import and Export Information] SMM News, March 20: In February 2026, China imported 4,572 mt of molybdenum concentrate (physical content), down 13.03% YoY and 1.82% MoM. Cumulative imports of molybdenum concentrate in January-February totaled 9,230 mt (physical content), down 13.88% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 558 mt of molybdenum concentrate (physical content), down 46.01% YoY and up 160.72% MoM. Cumulative exports of molybdenum concentrate in January-February reached 772 mt (physical content), down 46.01% YoY;

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s SiMn exports were 2,539.52 mt in January 2026, down 50.55% MoM and down 31.84% YoY. China’s SiMn imports were 0 mt in January 2026, down 100% MoM and down 100% YoY. By import and export regional structure, SiMn exports were mainly destined for Indonesia.

◼ At the beginning of 2026, Musk’s SpaceX plan for 100 GW of annual space PV capacity ignited the A-share market, with multiple concept stocks rising by more than 30 in a single month. At the same time, however, earnings previews from leading PV companies generally showed losses for 2025, and industry fundamentals remained in a deep winter. Behind the stark divergence between the speculative frenzy around the Musk-SpaceX concept and the earnings trough, is the market overly expecting a “second growth curve,” or is this a genuine signal of industrial transformation? ◼ As the global PV industry moves from rapid expansion into a new stage of rational development, its value has gone beyond that of clean energy alone: Against the backdrop of explosive growth in AI computing power driving massive electricity demand, compounded by energy security anxiety triggered by geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, developing PV may become a core strategic choice for countries to achieve their “dual-carbon” goals, build autonomous and controllable energy systems, and reduce electricity costs for end-users. ◼ Since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict at the end of February, the world’s four major benchmark crude oil prices have entered a rapid upward trajectory. Before the outbreak of the conflict, oil prices had remained broadly stable; however, starting on March 2, as the fighting expanded and spread to the Persian Gulf, oil prices immediately entered a sharp uptrend. Note: Shanghai crude oil prices are converted based on the settlement-date exchange rate of 1:0.15. Source: Public information, SMM. ◼ Although the impact borne by different regions varies due to differences in energy mix, geopolitical location, and policy response, the surge in imported crude oil costs driving a broad rise in energy prices has become a common challenge facing all countries. Europe is a case in point. Although Europe’s direct dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil was not high, at only about 5 according to data from energy market intelligence firm Kpler, it remained highly dependent on the region for refined products such as diesel and aviation kerosene, as well as liquefied natural gas. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict directly pushed up Europe’s terminal energy prices—fuel prices at gas stations across the region surged, and natural gas prices broke above EUR 60 per megawatt hour on the 9th, reaching a new high since 2022. The continued rise in energy prices is bound to transmit into broader areas of the economy, increasing overall inflationary pressure and once again underscoring the importance of building secure and controllable energy systems. Accelerating the Clean Transition of the Global Energy Mix, the PV Industry Advances Toward High-Quality Development ◼ The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that, despite economic pressure, global electricity demand momentum remains strong in 2025, with growth rates in 2025 and 2026 expected to be 3.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Data from 2020 to 2025 showed that the global power market followed a trajectory of continued overall growth alongside structural transition toward cleaner energy , with the share of renewable energy sources such as solar rising significantly, although fossil fuels still accounted for the dominant share. ◼ According to the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions Scenario, solar power’s share in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 2% at present to 12% in 2035 and 28% in 2050. This means PV installations are still far from reaching their ceiling, with substantial room for future growth. ◼ The past five years marked a critical period in which the global PV market shifted from rapid expansion toward rational development. The IEA forecasts that total global new PV installations over the next five years will reach about 3.68 TW, accounting for nearly 80% of new renewable energy additions over the same period, and are expected to become the world’s largest renewable energy source by the end of 2030. This is mainly due to its widening economic advantages—by 2024, the cost of solar PV power generation had already fallen 41% below the cheapest fossil fuel alternative, and these cost advantages are driving rapid growth in both PV installations and power generation share. Source: IEA, public information, SMM. ◼ As a key carrier of PV installations, especially the backbone of utility-scale power plants, solar panel mounting bracket installations are expected to maintain annual average growth of 5%-6% alongside installation growth. Specifically, to achieve annual average new PV installations of 500-600 GW, corresponding module demand is estimated at about 550-700 GW based on the capacity ratio. Assuming a conventional 1:1 module-to-bracket configuration, the annual average installation scale of brackets required for utility-scale PV plants alone would reach at least 250-300 GW. Source: public information, SMM. Escalating Challenges Reshape the Development Logic of the Global PV Market ◼ The PV industry is undergoing resonating internal and external pressures. Internally, the global economic slowdown has become intertwined with social issues, while the industry itself has entered a rational development stage after rapid expansion, making slower installation growth a certain trend. Externally, global trade frictions continue to intensify, with the US, Europe, and other regions erecting nearly insurmountable cost gaps through barriers such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties as well as local content requirements. Challenge 1: Global Trade Frictions and Escalating Trade Barriers ◼ In recent years, countries have introduced a series of policies to build PV trade barriers and reshape the global competitive landscape of the industry. The US imposed “double anti-” duties of as much as 3,403.96% on PV products from four Southeast Asian countries, South Africa raised module tariffs to 10%, and Brazil increased out-of-quota tariffs sharply from 9.6% to 25% through a quota system. Market access requirements for PV in India and Türkiye have also become increasingly stringent. Meanwhile, new supply chain control rules represented by the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) have extended trade barriers deeper into the industry chain. By setting red lines on “third-country dependence,” they have established quantitative standards for supply chain restructuring. This series of changes has reshaped the competitive dimensions of the international PV industry and significantly raised the threshold for PV product imports and exports. Source: public information, SMM. Challenge 2: New Dynamics in the PV Market, with Incentive and Restrictive Policies Coexisting Source: public information, SMM. Outside China Enterprises Pursue Multi-Dimensional Breakthroughs Through Internal and External Efforts ◼ The practices of solar panel mounting bracket enterprises in the US, India, and other countries show that the key to coping with policy shifts overseas lies in combining “service-oriented” and “high-value” strategies. First, vertically extending from single-equipment sales to a service ecosystem covering the entire life cycle. Second, deepening horizontally by continuously optimizing business structure and extracting value from higher value-added segments. Solution 1: Launch Dedicated Plans Closely Aligned with Government Policies and Local Demand ◼ The global PV industry has now entered a new stage deeply reshaped by both market forces and policy. The growth logic of enterprises is shifting from the past single dimension of relying on technology iteration and cost declines to multi-dimensional competition closely integrating complex policy environments with localized demand. Against this backdrop, the key to corporate success lies in accurately interpreting policy intentions and launching development plans aligned with both market and policy. Tata Power Renewable Energy Limited (TPREL) precisely aligned with India’s “PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana” and launched the dedicated “solar for every home” plan while continuing to provide customized PV solutions. In Q1 FY2026, it added 220 MW of new rooftop PV installations, surging 416% YoY. TPREL also actively responded to local manufacturing policies by establishing 4.3 GW of solar cell and module capacity, ensuring supply while avoiding import tariffs. Through the synergy of “policy response + local capacity + customized services,” TPREL has effectively translated policy dividends into market competitiveness and steadily consolidated its leading position in India’s PV market. Solution 2: Use Acquisitions as a Link to Integrate Resources and Extend from Single Products to the Entire Industry Chain ◼ Competition in the global PV industry has fully escalated into a contest of entire industry chain system integration capabilities, and enterprises’ growth engines are shifting from past reliance on advantages in a single segment to a new model of providing integrated solutions through resource integration. In 2025, Nextracker used acquisitions as the core to integrate resources across the full chain, successively acquiring foundation engineering firms such as Solar Pile International and Ojjo, module supporting firms such as Origami Solar, and electrical system firms such as Bentek, thereby building a full-chain product matrix spanning structural, electrical, and digital solutions. Its performance continued to surge, with revenue rising from $1.9 billion in FY2023 to $3.4 billion in the trailing twelve months ended September 2025. It ultimately announced its transformation into a comprehensive energy solutions provider by renaming itself Nextpower, targeting revenue of more than $5.6 billion in FY2030. This strategy enabled its successful transformation from a single-product supplier into an entire industry chain service provider, solidifying its leading position in the global market. Solution 3: Optimize Business Structure ◼ Trade protectionism in the current PV market continues to intensify, with various trade barriers being layered on one after another. In response to this challenge, PV enterprises can achieve the dual objectives of “compliant operations” and “market retention” through business structure optimization. To avoid the equity constraints on FEOC under the US OBBB Act, Canadian Solar Inc. initiated a US business restructuring with its controlling shareholder CSIQ: it established two new joint ventures to separately manage PV and energy storage businesses, with its own stake set at 24.9% to precisely meet compliance requirements. At the same time, it transferred out 75.1% equity in three overseas plants supplying the US market, receiving a one-off consideration of 352 million yuan. This move enabled Canadian Solar Inc. to retain earnings from the US market through dividends and rental income. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved net profit of 990 million yuan, while large-scale energy storage shipments rose 32% YoY. After the adjustment, it focused on strengthening its advantages in non-US markets and successfully stabilized its global business layout with a compliant structure, providing a typical model for the industry in addressing trade barriers. ◼ For Chinese enterprises, in the face of trade frictions and overseas capacity gaps, they need to break through via three paths—“building plants near core markets, reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological innovation, and coordinating both within and outside the industry chain”— by pursuing localized deployment in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions to avoid frequent trade frictions; promoting standardized production and high-end product R&D to enhance competitiveness; and building a “China + overseas” dual-circulation supply chain to stabilize costs. However, overseas expansion still faces challenges such as land and environmental protection costs, talent shortages, and supply chain fluctuations, requiring enterprises to conduct sound risk assessments, leverage policy support, and improve overseas investment service systems. Only by deeply integrating scientific capacity deployment, technological innovation, and industry chain coordination can the mounting bracket industry upgrade from “Made in China” to “Globally Intelligent Manufacturing” and achieve long-term development under the “dual carbon” goals. New Requirements Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, New Topics for PV Enterprises ◼ In a global market full of uncertainties, the consistency and strength of domestic policy have provided fertile ground for the growth of China’s solar panel mounting bracket enterprises. The newly released 15th Five-Year Plan further clarified China’s path for energy and industrial development. On the one hand, the construction of a new-type power system centered on consumption capacity has been listed as a priority task, and green manufacturing and full life cycle management have been formally incorporated into the assessment system. On the other hand, technological self-reliance and self-strengthening together with new quality productive forces have replaced scale competition as the main line of the new development stage. This series of changes signals that the country is driving a profound shift from “competing on capacity” to “competing on system value,” with the core goal of achieving autonomous and controllable energy structure. It is estimated that after the Two Sessions, various departments will successively roll out detailed plans to promote the full implementation of the blueprint. ◼ Key implementation measures include: 1) establishing a “dual controls” system for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, while improving incentive and restraint mechanisms; 2) vigorously developing non-fossil energy and promoting the efficient use of fossil energy, while strengthening the construction of a new-type power system to ensure stable supply of green electricity; 3) applying both “addition and subtraction” by fostering green and low-carbon industries and promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industry; 4) in addition, accelerating the green transformation of production and lifestyles to consolidate the foundation for green development. ◼ From the perspective of regional development layout, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s PV industry will show characteristics of regional coordination: north-west China will become the strategic focus by virtue of its natural endowments, exporting electricity through cross-provincial green electricity trading and other means to achieve two-way matching between energy resources and power load; eastern regions, by contrast, will focus on local consumption by high-energy-consuming industries and zero-carbon industrial parks. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ SMM forecasts that China’s new PV installations are expected to reach 208 GW in 2025 and continue growing at an annual average rate of 9% over the next five years, exceeding 292 GW by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Utility-scale PV will remain dominant, with its installation share staying above 50%. Based on the same logic, we estimate that China’s PV installation market will maintain annual incremental growth of at least 100-120 GW. Source: public information, SMM. ◼ Focusing on China’s steel consumption market for solar panel mounting brackets, SMM estimates that annual steel consumption in China’s PV mounting bracket sector will average about 4-4.5 million mt from 2026 to 2030, accounting for about 30% of total steel consumption in the PV industry over the same period (based on 2026 data). Note: only installation demand for utility-scale PV mounting brackets is included, excluding distributed steel structures, replacement from existing asset depreciation, and exports. Source: public information, SMM. SMM Ferrous Consulting Based on its understanding of the global steel industry chain and regional markets, as well as its strong industry database and network resources, SMM is committed to providing clients with consulting services across the upstream, midstream, and downstream industry chain. Services include market supply and demand research and forecasts, market entry strategies, competitor cost research, and more, covering end-use industry from iron ore, coal, coke, and steel. SMM Ferrous has successfully served more than 300 Fortune Global 500 companies, China Top 500 companies, central state-owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises, publicly listed firms, and start-ups. 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[General Administration of Customs Data] In the first two months of 2026, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, up 18.3% YoY (the same hereinafter). Among them, exports totaled 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2%; imports totaled 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1%.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Uncertainty Still Persists, LME Zinc Maintains Wide Swings] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,336.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched an intraday high of $3,386/mt. Prices then pulled back to a low of $3,323.5/mt, before edging up slightly near the close to finish at $3,342/mt, up $16/mt, or 0.48%. Trading volume decreased to 98,167 lots, and open interest fell by 254 lots to 216,000 lots.

[SMM Analysis] Persian Gulf Shutdown? The Impact of the U.S.-Iran Conflict on Global Steel Trade On February 28, 2026, the conflict between the United States and Iran escalated into a full-scale outbreak, causing a sudden spike in Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. As a global chokepoint for energy and bulk commodity maritime transport, the Strait of Hormuz has seen shipping disrupted and routes tightened, directly impacting the nerves of the global supply chain. This "Golden Waterway" is not only a lifeline for oil but also a critical strategic corridor for the global steel import and export trade . Once passage is restricted, it will deliver a comprehensive shock to the international steel trade landscape. Amidst the turmoil of war, what disruptions and restructuring will the global steel trade face? SMM's latest research provides an in-depth analysis. In the short term, the U.S.-Iran conflict poses a risk of stalling steel imports and exports in the Persian Gulf region, putting pressure on China's steel exports. Multiple disruptions along Gulf shipping routes have caused significant delays in exporters' orders. According to SMM research, the current Middle East situation has disrupted multiple ports in the Gulf region. Bahrain has suspended port activities, including pilotage services. Jebel Ali Port has halted all operations due to a fire caused by intercepting airstrike debris. Qatar's Ras Laffan and Messaid ports remain operational but with reduced traffic, GPS signal interference, and the government closure of its airspace. Similarly, new orders and shipments for Chinese exporters have also been significantly hindered. Data Source:SMM Impact Assessment of Core Ports within the Strait of Hormuz Should a physical blockade occur at this strategic chokepoint, the five most directly affected key inner-bay ports experiencing “instant logistics paralysis” would be: Port of Bandar Abbas, Port of Khomeini, Port of Jebel Ali, Port of Khalifa, and King Abdullah Port. Simultaneously, a Strait blockade would threaten to disrupt approximately 10% of global seaborne steel trade (primarily semi-finished products and specialty ores) . Iran's production of direct reduced iron (DRI) also holds significant weight in global supply; any disruption could drive up costs for electric arc furnace steelmaking in the Middle East. Data Source: SMM Ferrous Metal Shipping After the blockade, will goods become completely impossible to transport? While maritime routes will indeed come to a near standstill, the flow of goods won't cease entirely. It will simply become extremely costly, slow, and require complex overland transshipment. For instance, strategic alternative ports outside the strait include Sohar Port, Chabahar Port, and Gwadar Port. Data Source: Compiled by SMM based on publicly available information Trade Chokehold Triggered by Insurance Withdrawals Equally severe as the strait blockade is the withdrawal of war risk insurance. Marine insurers Skuld and Gard have announced they will cancel war risk coverage due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Local feedback from the UAE indicates most insurers refuse to underwrite war risk insurance for the Red Sea. This means traders must bear multiple uncontrollable factors and assume all consequences, which will significantly impact new orders. Summary: The Hormuz Crisis's “Hedging Effect” on China's Steel Market Leads to Short-Term Export Pressure Short-Term Negative Impact (Suppression of Demand and Logistics): The sudden halt in Gulf shipping routes will cause China's total exports to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to plummet dramatically. Export disruptions may even force resources to flow back into the domestic market, intensifying supply pressure and exerting downward pressure on steel prices. Data Source: SMM, GACC Mid-term outlook: As a major steel supplier, Iran's halted exports will trigger tightening supply of steel billets in Southeast and South Asia. From Construction to Industry: Iran's Steel Export Structure Transformation and the Peak Era Dominated by “Billet” According to data released by the Iranian Steel Producers Association (ISPA), 2025 marked the “peak era” for Iran's steel exports, with its export structure exhibiting an extremely aggressive trend: ① Absolute Dominance of Semi-Finished Products: From March to December 2025, Iran's billet exports reached 4.58 million tons (+37.7% YoY), while slab exports hit 1.54 million tons (+44.6% YoY). This confirms the earlier observation that the current strait blockade will trigger significant “slab panic” among downstream steel mills in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. ② Structural Leap in Flat Products: Finished flat product exports surged from 307,000 tons in the same period last year to 1.03 million tons. Notably, the significant increase in hot-rolled coil (867,000 tons) and coated steel (up 76.7% YoY) indicates Iran's gradual transition from a “construction steel supplier” to an “industrial raw material supplier.” ③ Weakness and contraction in long products: In contrast, exports of finished long products (rebar, wire rod) declined by 9.9%, while structural steel exports plummeted by 27.7%. This trend of “reducing long products while increasing flat products” has, against the backdrop of stalled infrastructure projects, actually heightened the risk of inventory buildup for finished goods. Data Source: ISPA Mid-term positive factors: Cost and substitution support Iran's steel export shortfall of nearly 11 million tons will trigger regional supply tightness, forcing some Southeast Asian and South Asian buyers to shift procurement to China, creating “substitution-driven incremental demand.” Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices may push up costs across the entire industrial chain, providing bottom-up support for steel prices. Although logistics disruptions and project suspensions will suppress export performance in the short term, the reshuffling of the global supply landscape is expected to partially offset the negative impact. Chinese steel may play a key role in filling the global gap. Long-term outlook: Iran's ceasefire may temporarily impact the global steel market Hoarding effect under blockade: Iran's sharply rising mill and port inventory pressures According to the latest global steel statistics report released by the World Steel Association (WSA), Iran's cumulative crude steel production reached 31.8 million tons in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.4% compared to 2024 and solidifying its position as the world's tenth-largest steel producer. In December 2025, Iran's monthly crude steel output hit 3 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 16.2%. This indicates that Iranian steel mills were operating at peak capacity just before the conflict erupted. In January 2026, its crude steel output reached approximately 2.6 million tons, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase. Against the backdrop of a 6.5% year-on-year decline in global crude steel production during January, Iran demonstrated an “independent trend.” According to SMM research, the high production levels from earlier periods have led to severe inventory backlogs at domestic steel mills. The logistics blockade that began in late February prevented the full shipment of steel produced during this high-output phase out of the Persian Gulf. Consequently, ports and mill warehouses are now stockpiling large quantities of slabs and billets originally intended for export. Once the situation eases, this “low-priced inventory” could flood the market at dumping prices. However, considering Iran's post-ceasefire reconstruction needs and the actual release of these supplies, SMM will continue to monitor developments closely. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. 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As of February 12, 2026, LME zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 103,500 mt, while the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed from over $40/mt in January to below $20/mt. At the same time, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, many downstream zinc enterprises suspended operations, leading to a continued buildup in domestic zinc ingot inventory to over 160,000 mt.

[Zinc Price "Year-End Hurdle": Pre-Holiday Hedging and Post-Holiday Pace Management Suggestions]With the 2026 Chinese New Year approaching and the last trading week before the holiday, SMM has summarized several key points to focus on in the zinc market before and after the holiday: