[SMM Steel] Australia has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into galvanized steel imports from South Korea and Vietnam, following a complaint by BlueScope Steel Limited. Key producers involved include POSCO, Dongkuk Steel, Hoa Sen Group, and Nam Kim Steel. The investigation covers zinc-coated flat steel (0.3–3.5mm thickness), with a SEF due by Aug 18 and a final recommendation by Oct 2, 2026.

The Indian Ministry of Steel reaffirmed in late April 2026 its goal to reach 300 million metric tons of crude steel capacity by 2030, rising from the current 168 million tons. Approximately 64% of this planned expansion relies on the coal-based blast furnace method, creating significant demand for metallurgical coal. To support this growth, India is diversifying its coking coal imports, with the U.S. share of imports increasing to 15% by 2025, reducing reliance on Australian supply which previously commanded 72% of the market.

[SMM Steel] Morocco has notified the World Trade Organization of its plan to extend safeguard measures on hot-rolled steel imports for another three years (Jun 2026–Jun 2029), maintaining an additional 19% tariff. The move aims to protect domestic producers from rising import pressure. The extension could weigh on Vietnamese steel exports, requiring exporters to reassess pricing strategies, cost structures, and market positioning. Industry authorities advise firms to diversify export markets and closely monitor trade remedy developments to mitigate risks.

On April 27, 2026, the European Union finalized the details of a new steel protection regulation scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2026, replacing the previous safeguard measures. The new regulation sets a total annual tariff-rate quota of approximately 18.35 million metric tonnes. Crucially, imports exceeding these quotas will now face a 50% punitive tariff (up from the previous 25% safeguard duty), reflecting a significantly more aggressive stance against global overcapacity. The EU also reaffirmed its commitment to fully phase out remaining Russian steel imports, particularly slabs, by September 30, 2028.

The UK plans to impose 50% steel tariffs and a 60% quota cut starting July 2026, potentially driving prices above €1,000/ton, causing the highest in Europe. Similarly, EU steel prices have risen 20% since October 2025, with a 34% total surge expected by mid-2026 due to new safeguards and CBAM. In stark contrast, the Indian Ministry of Steel issued a decree on April 27, 2026, exempting MSMEs from QCO compliance for specific stainless steel imports until October 2026. While Europe faces criticism for strangling its manufacturing backbone with bureaucracy and duties, India is moving to de-bureaucratize and support its smaller industrial players.

Amid sustained demand growth, India plans to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals including lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earths. The stockpile will be sized to cover six months of domestic consumption, aiming to guard against risks of global supply disruptions and sharp raw material price volatility. Led by India’s Ministry of Mines and Ministry of Heavy Industries, the reserve covers key raw materials essential for new energy vehicles, energy storage and the electronics sector, fields where India currently relies heavily on imports. At present, the United States, China, South Korea and other countries have already established strategic reserve systems for critical minerals.

According to foreign media reports, the Indian government announced Monday evening that it will launch an investigation into certain aluminum wire products from Malaysia in response to review applications submitted by companies including Indian Aluminium Corporation, Vedanta, and Bharat Aluminium. The existing countervailing duties are set to expire in September, and the investigation aims to determine whether it is necessary to extend the tariffs.

According to customs data, China imported 6,835 tonnes of lithium hydroxide in March 2026, up 66% month-on-month and double year-on-year. Of this, 2,927 tonnes came from Indonesia, accounting for about 48% of total imports, while approximately another 40% came from Australia and South Korea. During the same period, China exported 3,143 tonnes of lithium hydroxide, up 20% month-on-month but down 26% year-on-year. In terms of exports, 2,059 tonnes went to South Korea and 278 tonnes to Japan. Since 2025, the combined effect of diverging domestic and overseas demand and continued overseas supply of lithium salts has caused excess lithium hydroxide to flow one‑directionally into the Chinese market. From the fourth quarter of 2025, domestic imports of lithium hydroxide remained at persistently high levels, while exports continued to weaken. Entering the first quarter of 2026, total imports exceeded 16,000 tonnes, while total exports were less than 8,000 tonnes, resulting in net imports of more than 8,000 tonnes — a complete reversal of the trade pattern characterised by "shrinking exports and surging imports". In terms of major import sources, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia accounted for a significant share. The key reason is that both domestic demand and prices are more favourable than overseas markets: In the third quarter of 2025, driven by expectations of subsidy policy reduction in 2026 and bullish sentiment on raw material prices, demand for ternary cathode materials remained strong in the fourth quarter. While overseas lithium hydroxide production lines maintained relatively stable output, downstream demand fell short of expectations, leading to rising inventory pressure among overseas holders – who had a strong incentive to destock towards the end of the year. Price increases for lithium hydroxide overseas lagged behind those in China, creating a profitable import arbitrage window. Coupled with the anticipated launch of lithium hydroxide futures in 2026, the number of trading participants involved in lithium hydroxide imports increased significantly. Given the long negotiation cycles and relatively stable supply channels with overseas suppliers, lithium hydroxide from Japan, South Korea and Australia has continued to flow into China. However, it is worth noting that although the continuous increase in import volumes has made lithium hydroxide more readily available for trading in China from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, the quality of the lithium hydroxide flowing into the country is uneven due to the relatively customized production requirements of ternary cathode materials. As a result, there is a certain lag before it actually reaches material manufacturers. Looking ahead, as long‑term orders are steadily delivered, import volumes are expected to remain relatively high, while the potential for export growth is likely to remain limited.

SMM April 30 — Recently, the General Administration of Customs released import and export data for January-March 2026. According to the latest data, China's imports of thorium ore and concentrates from January to March 2026 totaled 17,363 mt, down 5% YoY. March imports were 3,336 mt, down 21% MoM but up 47% YoY. Currently, as China's light rare earth separation enterprises experienced significant production cuts and suspensions in Q1 this year, market demand for thorium ore and concentrates declined notably. Actual transaction prices also continued to fall, reducing ore traders' enthusiasm for imports, which in turn led to the YoY decline in actual imports of thorium ore and concentrates. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides from January to March 2026 totaled approximately 21,607 mt, up 242% YoY. In terms of reasons, on one hand, at the beginning of last year, rare earth ore exports from Myanmar — the primary source country for unlisted rare earth oxide imports — were affected by a series of negative factors, resulting in relatively low exports of unlisted rare earth oxides during the same period last year. On the other hand, from January to March this year, changes in tax policies in Myanmar prompted some ore traders to rush imports, causing a notable increase in imports of unlisted rare earth oxides.

The share of EQ copper cathode in imports continued to expand in Q1 2026. Following shares of 68.12% and 70.78% in January and February respectively, the EQ share further climbed to 73.53% in March. Looking at the seasonal charts from 2022 to 2026, March tends to be the annual peak for EQ share. This year's 73.53% not only exceeded the same period in 2024 and 2025, but also confirmed that under the reality of inverted SHFE/LME price ratio and import windows under pressure, EQ sources have further consolidated their position as the "main force" of China's copper cathode imports. Supply side, the previously noted "African source diversion" phenomenon was confirmed in March data. As the US increased its stockpiling of global copper cathode resources, changes in the flow of African sources remain worth monitoring. Taking DRC as an example, its March supply rebounded from 64,900 mt in February to 93,100 mt, but still fell short of January's level. This indicates that although African sources previously affected by logistics and other factors have partially recovered, under the backdrop of global resource reallocation and long-term contract diversions by multinational giants, the incremental space for DRC copper cathode flowing into China is constrained, and the price spread between EQ and registered copper continues to narrow. Unlike the supply situation of African sources, Russian and Kazakh sources saw significant growth in March. Breaking the previously relatively stable monthly import trend, Russia's copper cathode imports rose to 49,700 mt in March, a notable increase MoM, while Kazakhstan also rose to 13,900 mt. These additional EQ resources effectively filled the gap left by constrained African sources. Considering that sulfur supply and shipping capacity issues in Africa have not been fully resolved, the incremental flow of African SX-EW copper to China is expected to remain limited going forward. However, given the overall limited imports, the share of EQ copper imports is expected to remain elevated.