[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,016.5/mt. After dipping to $11,955.5/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,160/mt, and then continued to hover at highs, finally closing at $12,092.5/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, open interest stood at 293,000 lots, up 406 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 93,600 yuan/mt and touched a low of 93,480 yuan/mt at the open. Its center then moved higher to a high of 94,990 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs, finally closing at 94,670 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. Trading volume reached 51,000 lots, open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 533 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting reduced short positions throughout the day.

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported a total of 5,561 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate in February 2026, down 20% MoM and up 54% YoY. China exported 33 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate, down 74% MoM and down 75% YoY. China's net imports of nickel sulphate were 5,528 mt in metal content in February 2026, down 19% MoM and up 59% YoY. By country, exports to Japan pulled back this month, dragging down total exports; on the import side, imports from Indonesia and other countries also pulled back this month. Although imports from Finland increased, total imports still declined. Net imports of nickel salts also pulled back this month, broadly in line with last month's expectations.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

[SMM Morning Zinc Briefing: Stronger US Dollar Index Put LME Zinc Under Pressure and Slightly Lower]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,095/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated downward along the daily average line, hitting an intraday high of $3,097/mt. Near the close, LME zinc fell to a low of $3,027/mt, and finally closed down at $3,038.5/mt, down $64.5/mt, a decline of 2.08%, while trading volume decreased to 11,298 lots...

SMM, March 25: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, and then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and relatively cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose and broke above the previous trading range, hitting a high of $1,901/mt before closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, and then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, with prices gradually stabilizing around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume also pulled back and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead again broke upward, hitting a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, while spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai edged up slightly, and quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site changed relatively little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and spot market circulating cargoes were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices were inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[Geopolitical Risks Compound Interest Rate Cut Expectations, Intensifying the Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts in the Aluminum Market] Continued destocking of LME inventory has provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but tightening funding liquidity and profit-taking by bulls have limited upward momentum, and the backwardation structure has somewhat weakened. China’s social inventory has risen to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals are jointly suppressing upward momentum. Divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continues, the SHFE/LME price ratio keeps weakening, and the market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

According to data from China Customs: Combined for January–February 2026, China imported 265,100 metric tons of high-carbon ferrochrome in total, a year-on-year decline of 51.6%. Breakdown by origin: imports from South Africa were 40,700 metric tons, down 83.3% year-on-year; imports from Kazakhstan were 158,400 metric tons, down 19.7% year-on-year.