[SMM Hot Topic: From "Scale" to "Quality" – The Shift and Restructuring of Traditional Construction Steel Demand] From 2026 to 2030, the domestic demographic dividend will gradually shrink, and the era of rapid growth in the real estate industry will come to an end, with the industry's development logic shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement.

Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province, has introduced a robust home purchase subsidy policy. Recently, departments including the Quzhou City Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau jointly issued a notice, introducing multiple measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as offering group purchase subsidies for home purchases, implementing improved home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, deepening the integrated use of housing vouchers across the city, accelerating the improvement of the housing security system, and launching a campaign to distribute consumption vouchers for home purchases in the Smart New City. "Quzhou's new real estate policies released in mid-year mainly focus on home purchase subsidies, aiming to support housing consumption," Lu Qilin, Research Director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told reporters. According to the notice, individuals who subscribe to newly-built commercial residential properties in the urban area of Quzhou City (projects that have obtained their first pre-sale permits since 2021) during the 2025 real estate consumption promotion campaign will be reported by participating real estate enterprises to the corresponding housing transaction departments. The housing transaction departments in the urban area will group every 10 successful purchases (groups) and provide a group purchase subsidy of 20,000 yuan per unit to homebuyers. The group purchase subsidy is limited to 300 units and will be available for two months, or until the quota is exhausted. In terms of implementing improved home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, starting from June 20, 2025, families with multiple children purchasing newly-built commercial residential properties in the urban area of Quzhou City (projects that have obtained their first pre-sale permits since 2021) will be eligible for improved home purchase subsidies. Specifically, families with two children who sign a "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" for a residential property with a floor area of 100 m² or more can apply for an 80,000-yuan subsidy. Families with three children who sign a "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" for a residential property with a floor area of 120 m² or more can apply for a 200,000-yuan subsidy. Subsidies will be issued in the form of housing vouchers, which can be used in conjunction with other types of housing vouchers. This policy will be implemented on a trial basis for one year. In addition, the Smart New City Management Committee, in collaboration with some real estate enterprises within its jurisdiction, has jointly launched home purchase consumption vouchers. Individuals purchasing newly-built commercial residential properties in projects participating in the consumption promotion campaign will receive a home purchase consumption voucher subsidy of 600 yuan/m² based on the floor area of the residential property with ownership rights specified in the "Zhejiang Province Commercial Housing Sales Contract" (the subsidy will be calculated based on the floor area corresponding to the additional amount paid after deducting the value of various housing vouchers from the total housing price; for trade-in scenarios, the excess amount can be subsidized after complying with the policy requirements of the implementing entity), with a maximum subsidy of 100,000 yuan per unit. This subsidy campaign will be conducted simultaneously with the 2025 city-county coordinated real estate consumption promotion campaign, and there will be no total limit on the distribution of consumption vouchers. Lu Qilin pointed out that Quzhou's current policies differ from those previously announced in other cities and possess certain innovative and referential values. Firstly, in the latest policies, the three subsidies—group purchase subsidies, home purchase subsidies for families with multiple children, and home purchase consumption subsidies—are implemented concurrently, breaking away from the traditional "single subsidy-focused" model adopted in various regions. Second, multi-child subsidies are implemented in a tiered manner, with different amounts for second and third children, and the subsidy for third children is more generous. Third, real estate developers directly subsidize homebuyers in the form of consumption vouchers, and the subsidy amounts are not low. This differs from the common model of "relying on intermediary channels with high commissions," allowing homebuyers to directly benefit while also reducing the marketing costs of real estate developers. He further stated that Quzhou's strong support for housing consumption through subsidies may be related to changes in the local market. According to data from 58 Anjuke Research Institute, the recent interest in searching for new homes in Quzhou has pulled back YoY. "It can be seen that the local government hopes to promote the 'stabilization and recovery' of the property market through subsidies." In fact, amid the backdrop of a pullback in market enthusiasm, many regions have recently introduced home purchase subsidy measures. On June 11, Yuhang District of Hangzhou City issued new property market policies, including pilot promotion of "high-quality housing" construction, optimization of housing provident fund services, and implementation of home purchase support policies. According to the latest policies, Yuhang District encourages real estate developers to carry out various activities such as home purchase sales promotions, offering certain discounts to homebuyers. From June 10, 2025, to June 30, 2025, for projects that carry out home purchase sales promotions, a subsidy of 40,000 yuan per unit will be provided to homebuying families that purchase newly built commercial residential properties in the corresponding projects after the real estate ownership certificates for the purchased properties are obtained. The total subsidy amount is 16 million yuan, and it will be distributed on a "first-come, first-served" basis according to the online contract signing time until the funds are exhausted. Yuhang District has also extended the implementation period of special home purchase subsidies. On the basis of implementing the municipal-level high-level talent (categories A-D) home purchase subsidies, high-level talents who meet the criteria (municipal-level category E, district-level category E, and above) purchasing newly built commercial residential properties in Yuhang District will be eligible for a maximum home purchase subsidy of 200,000 yuan. The policy implementation period has been extended to December 31, 2025. In addition, Chongqing issued six policies related to housing consumption on May 30, mentioning that for newly purchased commercial residential properties (with completed online contract registration and deed tax payment) in the central urban area with a single-unit floor area of over 140 m², the district government (administrative committee) where the property is located will provide a subsidy of 0.5% of the total property price. The Hefei Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued a notice on May 29, stating that the relevant policies on home purchase subsidies in Hefei will be extended until May 14, 2026. Industry insiders pointed out that, based on the transaction situation in May this year, there are signs of a pullback in the market, and downward pressure on housing prices has emerged during the adjustment process. Various regions need policy support to further stabilize the market. "Since Q2, some new phenomena have emerged in the market, and the pressure for the property market to stabilize and recover has increased. For example, the listing volume of second-hand homes has risen rapidly, while the decline in second-hand home prices has accelerated. Meanwhile, during the implementation of "high-quality housing" projects, some newly developed projects have had a certain impact on old planned projects and second-hand homes, making it difficult for some projects to sell. " said Li Yujia, Chief Researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center. According to monitoring data from E-house China Research Institute, in May this year, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing nationwide were 71 million m² and 0.71 trillion yuan, respectively. Although they increased by 10.3% and 13.1% MoM from April, they decreased by 3.3% and 6% YoY, respectively. "Looking at a longer timeframe, the monthly sales area was the lowest for the same period since 2011, and the monthly sales volume reached the lowest for the same period since 2016," said an analyst from E-house China Research Institute. Chen Wenjing, Director of Policy Research at the China Index Academy, pointed out that the State Council executive meeting on June 13 set the tone to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and recover with greater force," sending a positive signal of further policy intensification that will have a positive impact on the market. "The top leadership has clarified four key areas for policy efforts going forward: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. The implementation and follow-up of these policies are expected to be crucial in promoting the market to 'stabilize and recover,'" Chen Wenjing added.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released housing price data for 70 cities. In May, housing prices in cities of all tiers declined MoM. Prices of new homes in first-tier and second-tier cities both fell 0.2% MoM, while prices of existing homes in first-tier cities dropped 0.7% MoM, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The YoY decline in housing prices in cities of all tiers continued to narrow.

The latest data shows that the number of cities experiencing a MoM decline in housing prices increased in May, indicating that the market is once again showing signs of adjustment. According to the housing price data for 70 cities nationwide released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 16, in May 2025, the number of cities with a MoM increase in new home prices was 13, a decrease of 9 cities from the previous month; the number of cities with a decline was 53, an increase of 8 cities from the previous month. For second-hand home prices, 3 cities saw a MoM increase, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; 67 cities experienced a decline, an increase of 3 cities from the previous month. "Overall, policies aimed at promoting the stabilization of the real estate market have continued to show effectiveness, and the real estate market operated relatively smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs improvement. Continuous efforts are required to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the NBS and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office. For new homes, the MoM decline in the new residential housing price index for 70 cities nationwide was 0.2% in May, slightly wider than the previous month. Specifically, in first-tier cities, the MoM new home sales price changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2% in May; in second-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes changed from flat in the previous month to a decline of 0.2%; in third-tier cities, the MoM sales price of new residential homes declined by 0.3%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among the 13 cities with rising housing prices, the top 5 cities in terms of housing price index increases were Hangzhou, Shanghai, Nanning, Urumqi, and Shenyang. Among them, Hangzhou led the gains among the 70 cities with a 0.8% increase. Shanghai was the only first-tier city where new home prices rose against the trend, with an increase of 0.7%, second only to Hangzhou; the other three first-tier cities, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, saw housing prices pull back by 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.4%, respectively. "The MoM increase in Shanghai's new home prices is attributed to the concentrated launch of high-end properties in the market, attracting significant attention from high-net-worth individuals, thereby boosting market enthusiasm and raising the overall average price of Shanghai's new home market. Hangzhou stood out among second-tier cities, with a heated land market driving up interest in property searches in surrounding areas and injecting strong confidence into the real estate market," said Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute. Compared to the new home market, the second-hand home market faced more pronounced pressure. Data showed that the MoM decline in the price index for 70 cities was 0.5% in May. Among them, the MoM decline in the second-hand residential housing price index for first-tier cities was 0.7%, widening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 0.8%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.5%, respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the selling prices of second-hand residential properties both declined by 0.5% MoM, with the rate of decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points each. "It has become commonplace for second-hand housing to adopt a volume discount strategy. Compared to April, although the number of cities where second-hand housing prices have fallen has increased, it should also be noted that this has led to a rise in home-search enthusiasm and an increase in trading volume," said Zhang Bo. According to the 58 Anjuke Leading Index, the home-search enthusiasm diffusion index rose by 0.14 points MoM in May 2025, indicating a decrease in the number of cities with declining enthusiasm and an increase in the number of cities with rebounding enthusiasm. Analysts believe this serves as a key improvement signal for the market to begin experiencing a price and volume correction in June. Meanwhile, the diffusion index for the duration of listed properties decreased from 0.5 to 0.38, indicating that the duration of listed properties in most cities has shortened and the de-stocking speed has accelerated. In Zhang Bo's view, this change mainly stems from two aspects: firstly, the recovery in home-search demand has improved the matching efficiency between buyers and sellers; secondly, real estate agents are promoting price reductions for high-value properties to facilitate transactions. It is worth noting that the market expects more substantial policy support. The State Council Executive Meeting held on June 13 proposed to "drive the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force." Industry insiders believe this sends a strong signal to the market to further stabilize the housing sector. The meeting pointed out the need to steadily and forcefully promote the construction of "quality housing," incorporate it into the urban renewal mechanism to strengthen work coordination, and provide policy support in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking. It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing real estate projects nationwide, further optimize existing policies, enhance the systematic and effective implementation of policies, and adopt a multi-pronged approach to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks, thereby driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force. "The statement at this State Council Executive Meeting about 'driving the real estate market to stabilize and rebound with greater force,' with stronger wording, implies that more targeted incremental measures may be on the way," said Chen Shen, an analyst at Huatai Securities. He further pointed out that the policy ideas of "conducting a comprehensive survey, optimizing, and adopting a multi-pronged approach" proposed at this State Council Executive Meeting are noteworthy. Among them, conducting a comprehensive survey of the land already supplied and ongoing projects nationwide aims to clarify key issues such as land idleness, providing data support for subsequently revitalizing stock resources through means such as acquisition and storage, and optimizing the rhythm of land supply. Secondly, promoting the construction of "quality housing" and incorporating it into the urban renewal system is a way to activate demand by optimizing supply. Meanwhile, exerting comprehensive efforts in areas such as planning, land, finance, and banking emphasizes enhancing the systematic and effective implementation of existing policies to boost market confidence. Yuan Hao, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, also believes that although the total transaction volume of China's new and second-hand housing markets has remained relatively stable for nearly three years, the current volume and price have not yet fully entered a positive cycle. Therefore, it is expected that there is still a possibility of increasing policy support in the future. "The recent statement on halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market has been adjusted from 'continuously consolidating' to 'greater efforts,' indicating that 'halting the decline and stabilizing' remains the main policy tone. It is expected that a new round of supportive policies may be introduced, which may include an interest rate cut on home loans, increasing the supply of high-quality housing, optimizing acquisition and storage, and advancing urban renewal projects," Yuan Hao said.

SMM News on June 16: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE tin all rose, with SHFE copper up 0.19% to lead the gains, while SHFE zinc fell 0.5% to lead the losses. The % changes of the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract fell 0.73%, while the main casting aluminum contract rose 0.31%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.7%, the main silicon metal contract rose 0.41%, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.93%, and the main European container shipping contract fell 4.04%. The ferrous metals series rose collectively. Rebar rose 0.98%, HRC rose 1.07%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 2.84%, and coke rose 1.9%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals generally rose, with only LME aluminum and LME tin falling. LME tin fell 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.04%, and LME zinc rose 0.53%. The remaining metals all rose slightly. In the precious metals segment, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.47%, and COMEX silver rose 0.48%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.08%, and SHFE silver rose 0.45%. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% in May, with the National Economy Generally Stable and Making Steady Progress] The NBS showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size actually increased by 5.8% YoY. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3% YoY. By industry, in May, 35 out of 41 major industry categories maintained YoY growth in added value. Among them, the coal mining and washing industry grew by 5.5%, the oil and natural gas extraction industry grew by 5.3%, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry grew by 7.6%, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry grew by 4.1%, the textile industry grew by 0.6%, the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry grew by 5.9%, the non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 0.6%, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 4.8%, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 8.1%, the general equipment manufacturing industry grew by 6.3%, the special equipment manufacturing industry grew by 2.3%, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 11.6%, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.6%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.0%, the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 10.2%, and the electric power, heat production, and supply industry grew by 2.0%. Overall, in May, as the combined effects of policies continued to unfold, the effects of stabilizing the economy and promoting development became evident. The national economy maintained a generally stable development trend with steady progress, fully demonstrating the resilience and vitality of China's economy. However, it should also be noted that there are many external uncertainties and destabilizing factors, and the endogenous momentum for expanding domestic demand still needs to be strengthened. The foundation for sustained economic rebound and improvement still needs to be consolidated. 》Click to view details [NBS: The real estate market continues to move towards stabilization and recovery] Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the NBS's Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, increased counter-cyclical adjustments, and accelerated the implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas ("two major" policies) as well as the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins ("two new" policies). These efforts have effectively enhanced the vitality of consumption, driven production growth, and promoted transformation and upgrading, fully demonstrating the important role of macro policies in stabilizing economic operations. In the next stage, China has sufficient reserves in its policy toolbox, and macro policies have room for maneuver. They can be dynamically adjusted and actively responded to according to changes in the situation, and will continue to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, with the accelerated implementation of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, the market has continued to move towards stabilization and recovery. Judging from the situation in May, the operation of the real estate market was generally stable. The YoY decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing continued to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, under the influence of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, real estate sales remained basically stable. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% YoY respectively, basically flat with the figures from January to April. Market transactions in some first-tier and second-tier cities were relatively active, with the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing maintaining growth. From the perspective of market prices, the YoY decline in newly-built commercial residential housing continued to narrow. From the perspective of commercial housing inventory, the area of commercial housing pending sale in May decreased by 7.15 million m² compared to the end of April, marking a decrease for three consecutive months. Fu Linghui emphasized that overall, the policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market have continued to show effects, and the operation of the real estate market was generally stable in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. Market confidence still needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs to be improved. Continuous efforts are still needed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. 》Click to view details ► On June 16, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 7.1789 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.08% to 98.04. This week marks a "super central bank week," with attention focused on the US Fed's statements regarding inflation and monetary policy in the second half of the year. The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for June rose to 60.5, compared with a forecast of 53.5. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.1%. Long-term inflation expectations declined to 4.1%. As Sino-US trade tensions eased, US consumer confidence improved for the first time in six months, though households remained concerned about the trajectory of the economy. Despite widespread expectations that the US Fed would keep interest rates stable, the market eagerly anticipated signals of possible interest rate cuts in the coming months. Macro: Today, data such as the eurozone's total reserve assets in May, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for June, and the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June will be released. In addition, the US New York Fed's manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US oil up 0.74% and Brent oil up 0.55%. On Friday, prices surged 7% as renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened fears that geopolitical conflicts could spread across the region and severely disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. It is understood that the latest developments have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or around 18-19 million barrels per day of oil, condensate, and fuel oil, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude oil and refined product exports from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with few viable alternative routes. Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said, "Buying is driven by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with no signs of resolution in sight. However, as seen on Friday, there has been some selling due to concerns about overreaction." Tazawa added that the market is monitoring potential disruptions to Iran's oil production from Israeli strikes on energy facilities, while heightened concerns about disruptions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly boost oil prices. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports over 2 million barrels of crude oil and fuel. So far, Israeli attacks on Iran's oil and natural gas infrastructure have not affected production or exports from the region. However, concerns persist that Israel could destroy Iran's oil facilities, depriving it of a major source of revenue and driving up oil prices. Analysts and OPEC observers say that the idle oil production capacity that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, have increased to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Inventory buildup of high-grade NPI continues, short-term market focus may dip again [NPI Daily Review] ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On June 16, MHP prices in Indonesia edged lower ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On June 16, nickel salt prices remained stable

The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today. Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of National Economy, introduced the performance of China's national economy in May 2025 and answered questions from journalists. NBS: Economic Performance in May Generally Stable, with Continued Improvement in Some Indicators At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that the economy performed generally stable in May, with continued improvement in some indicators. New growth drivers expanded, and the momentum of high-quality development continued, demonstrating the strong resilience and vitality of China's economy. In May, influenced by factors such as the trade-in policy for consumer goods, market sales growth accelerated. Total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, accelerating by 0.1 percentage point compared to the January-April period. The acceleration of consumption growth, especially the expansion of service consumption, is also boosting related service industries. In May, the production indices of the wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering industries all accelerated compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, new growth drivers such as high-end manufacturing, the digital economy, and the new energy industry continued to expand, effectively promoting industrial transformation and ensuring stable economic performance. NBS: China's Policy Toolbox is Well-Stocked, with Macro Policies Held in Reserve At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive macro policies, intensified counter-cyclical adjustments, and accelerated the implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas ("two majors") and the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins ("two news"). These efforts have effectively enhanced the vitality of consumption, driven production growth, and promoted transformation and upgrading, fully demonstrating the important role of macro policies in stabilizing economic performance. In the next stage, China's policy toolbox is well-stocked, with macro policies held in reserve. They can be dynamically adjusted and actively responded to according to changes in the situation, and will continue to safeguard the stable operation of the economy. NBS: Youth Unemployment Rate Declines for Three Consecutive Months, Employment Situation Remains Stable At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that the surveyed urban unemployment rate in China was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, the unemployment rate of the main employment group remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate declined for three consecutive months, indicating a continued stable employment situation. NBS: The Decline in China's Goods Imports is the Result of Multiple Factors At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Fu Linghui stated that since the beginning of this year, the decline in China's goods imports is the result of multiple factors. Since the beginning of this year, affected by the uncertainty of international trade policies, the growth momentum of the global economy has weakened, and global trade growth has also slowed down, which inevitably affects the growth of China's imports. Meanwhile, some countries have intensified trade restrictive measures, which have also had some adverse impacts on China's imports. In addition, international commodity prices have declined significantly this year, particularly energy prices. As a major importer of energy and raw materials, the decline in commodity prices has affected the growth of China's import value, as seen in the import values of products such as iron ore, crude oil, coal, and soybeans. Fu Linghui stated that while the import value of some commodities has declined, China's imports of major industrial products have maintained growth. In the first five months, the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 6% YoY, with imports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, as well as integrated circuits, increasing by 69% and 7.3%, respectively. In the next stage, with the continuous expansion of domestic demand and the orderly expansion of independent and unilateral opening-up, China's vast market will undoubtedly provide greater opportunities and more choices for the world. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The real estate market continues to move towards stabilizing and recovering Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, with the accelerated implementation of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, the market has continued to move towards stabilizing and recovering. Judging from the situation in May, the real estate market has generally operated smoothly. The YoY decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities has continued to narrow, and the inventory of commercial housing has continued to decrease. From the perspective of market transactions, under the influence of various policies to stabilize the real estate market, real estate sales have remained generally stable. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% YoY, respectively, which was basically flat compared to January-April. Market transactions in some first-tier and second-tier cities have been relatively active, with the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing maintaining growth. From the perspective of market prices, the YoY decline in the selling prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings has continued to narrow. In May, the YoY decline in the selling prices of commercial residential buildings in most of the 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow. Among them, the YoY decline in the selling prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.4, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. The YoY decline in the selling prices of second-hand residential buildings narrowed by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points, respectively. From the perspective of commercial housing inventory, the area of commercial housing pending sale in May decreased by 7.15 million m² compared to month-end April, marking a decline for three consecutive months. Fu Linghui emphasized that, overall, the policies to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market have continued to show effects, and the real estate market operated generally smoothly in May. However, it should be noted that the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment, market confidence needs to be continuously restored, and the supply-demand relationship in the market still needs to be improved. Continuous efforts are still required to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The Fourth National Agricultural Census is currently in the preparation stage Fu Linghui stated that the State Council recently issued a notice, deciding to conduct the Fourth National Agricultural Census in 2026. This is a major national survey of national conditions and national strength conducted on the new journey of comprehensively advancing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese-style modernization. In accordance with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on National Agricultural Census, the agricultural census is conducted once every ten years, with the year ending in 6 designated as the census year. In 2026, China will conduct its fourth National Agricultural Census. The main objective is to comprehensively understand the current state of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" in the new era, objectively reflect new developments in agricultural development, new appearances in rural construction, new changes in rural life, and new achievements in rural reforms. This census is of great significance for formulating scientific policies on "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers," promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, accelerating the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and building a strong agricultural country. Currently, the preparations for the fourth National Agricultural Census are underway, primarily focusing on establishing census organizations, developing census plans, and conducting pilot censuses. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Vigorously Increase the Supply of High-Quality Products and Actively Promote the Improvement and Expansion of Service Consumption Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, overall, the economy has maintained stable operation. The effects of the trade-in policy for consumer goods have continued to emerge, and the vitality of the consumer market has gradually strengthened. Looking ahead, new forms and models of consumption, such as live-streaming e-commerce and instant retail, are becoming increasingly mature. The silver-hair economy, first-launch economy, and low-altitude economy are developing rapidly, and new growth points in the consumption economy are constantly emerging. However, it should also be noted that residents' consumption capacity and confidence still need to be improved, and the endogenous momentum of consumption needs to be enhanced. In the next stage, it is necessary to further implement the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption," focus on enhancing residents' consumption capacity and willingness, further improve the consumption environment, vigorously increase the supply of high-quality products, actively promote the improvement and expansion of service consumption, and facilitate the stable development of the consumer market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Continuously Promote Urban Renewal and Renovation of Dilapidated Houses, and Increase the Construction and Supply of "Good Houses" Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, in the next stage, it is necessary to conscientiously implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, actively adapt to the reality of significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, continuously promote urban renewal and renovation of dilapidated houses, increase the construction and supply of "good houses," facilitate the release of rigid and improvement-oriented housing demand, actively construct a new model for real estate development, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Despite Many External Uncertainties and Instabilities, China's Comprehensive Advantages in Foreign Trade Development Remain Evident Fu Linghui stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in May, China's foreign trade continued to withstand pressure and maintained steady growth. In May, China's total import and export volume of goods increased by 2.7%, and exports increased by 6.3%, maintaining steady and relatively rapid growth. According to data from market institutions, the new export orders index of the global manufacturing PMI in May was below the 50 mark and remained in contraction territory for two consecutive months. The negative impacts of trade protectionism and uncertainties on global trade growth have gradually emerged. Against this backdrop, China's trade in goods has maintained growth, demonstrating the strong international competitiveness and resilience of its foreign trade. Amid a complex and challenging international environment, with the rise of unilateralism and protectionism severely impacting the international economic and trade order, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth. This is attributable to China's unwavering commitment to expanding opening-up, actively promoting the diversified development of foreign trade, as well as the high-end, intelligent, and green development of its industries, the upgrading of product structures, and the enhancement of market competitiveness. It is also due to China's active support for the development of foreign trade enterprises, creating favorable conditions for foreign trade development through measures such as improving trade facilitation. In the next stage, there will be many external uncertain and unstable factors, which will bring certain pressure to China's foreign trade growth. However, China's comprehensive advantages in foreign trade development remain evident, and the continuous expansion of high-level opening-up based on mutual benefit and win-win results will continue to support the steady development of foreign trade.

To boost market vitality, Guangzhou has taken a crucial step in optimizing its real estate policies. On June 13, Guangzhou released the "Implementation Plan for Special Actions to Boost Consumption (Draft for Public Comment)", seeking public feedback. The plan explicitly proposes to "systematically reduce consumption restrictions, optimize real estate policies, comprehensively lift purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lower down payment ratios and interest rates for loans." This draft for public comment views real estate consumption as a "key link" in boosting the overall vitality of the consumer market. Industry analysts generally believe that the implementation of this series of policies will effectively stimulate Guangzhou's property market and accelerate the process of stabilizing housing prices. More critically, Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that Guangzhou, as a first-tier city, sending a comprehensive and clear signal of policy easing, indicates an increased likelihood of further policy relaxation in first-tier cities. Clear Signal of Comprehensive Easing "This move marks Guangzhou as potentially the first first-tier city in the country to comprehensively lift the 'four restrictions'—purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, price caps, and loan restrictions," Zhang Bo told reporters. In fact, Guangzhou had already laid the groundwork for easing real estate policies. Chen Xueqiang, Research Director of the South China Branch of the China Index Academy, said in an interview with reporters that the comprehensive lifting of sales and purchase restrictions mentioned in this "Draft for Public Comment" had already been fully implemented in Guangzhou in May and September 2024, respectively. Although no official document had been previously issued regarding the lifting of price caps, the policy had already been in practice, meaning developers still needed to register prices, but the government no longer provided guidance prices. Regarding credit policies, Chen Xueqiang added that the current down payment ratios for first-time and second-time commercial loans in Guangzhou are both 15%, with the first-time commercial loan interest rate at 3% and the housing provident fund interest rate at 2.6%, which are already at relatively low levels. There is room for further reductions in the down payment ratios for housing provident fund loans in the future. From the perspective of Guangzhou's own real estate market situation, policy adjustments are also very necessary. According to Zhang Bo, based on housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Guangzhou is a first-tier city facing relatively significant downward pressure on housing prices, with both the new and second-hand housing markets remaining in a downward trend this year. Although Anjuke's online data shows that the overall second-hand listing prices stabilized in June, price declines were more pronounced in peripheral areas such as Baiyun, Panyu, Nansha, and Zengcheng. "Therefore, by comprehensively lifting purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price caps, and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for loans, the aim is to eliminate administrative intervention, allow the market to return to supply and demand-driven dynamics, boost property transactions, and accelerate the stabilization of housing prices."Zhang Bo said. Chen Xueqiang also believes that the draft for public comments explicitly expands the scope of cancellation to include restrictions on resale and price caps, and emphasizes reducing down payment ratios and interest rates. This is a comprehensive confirmation of the policies already implemented, sending a strong signal of easing to the market. Several analysts have pointed out that among first-tier cities, Guangzhou has frequently taken the lead in introducing easing measures in the past, and the new policies in Guangzhou this time may continue to trigger a chain reaction, with other first-tier cities potentially following suit in relaxing their policy restrictions. Multi-dimensional Efforts to Activate Demand In addition to easing core restrictive measures, Guangzhou's current plan also deploys measures from multiple angles, aiming to activate latent demand and comprehensively meet housing consumption needs. The plan explicitly proposes to steadily advance the renovation of urban villages and old residential communities, with plans to initiate renovation of over 150 old residential communities and upgrade over 9,000 old residential elevators by 2025, achieving fixed asset investment of 100 billion yuan in urban village renovation. "Such quantitative targets demonstrate Guangzhou's emphasis on urban renewal and its determination for sustained investment," Zhang Bo analyzed. As a core supporting measure for optimizing Guangzhou's real estate policies, the renovation of old residential communities has been deeply advanced in recent years, leading the nation. Through institutional innovation, diverse participation, and precise implementation, it has achieved a positive interaction between improving people's livelihoods and urban development. Meanwhile, Yan Yuejin emphasized that urban village renovation will effectively promote the release of latent home-buying or housing demand. The plan also proposes to "advance the use of special loans to purchase existing commercial housing as resettlement housing." In fact, Guangzhou has been at the forefront nationwide in terms of special bond acquisitions and storage. Yan Yuejin believes that the mention of this in the current plan indicates that special loans will continue to play a significant role in the subsequent acquisition of existing commercial housing for resettlement purposes. Furthermore, the plan requires the continuous optimization of housing provident fund usage policies, supporting depositors in applying for individual housing loans from the housing provident fund while withdrawing funds from it to pay for home down payments, and further optimizing policy measures for rent extraction. Industry insiders believe that through the comprehensive withdrawal of restrictive policies, the continuous optimization of credit policies, as well as a stimulus policy package of supporting measures including urban village renovation, utilization of existing housing, and housing provident fund support, Guangzhou is striving to unblock the housing consumption chain and inject confidence into the market. If the policies are smoothly implemented, Guangzhou will not only become the first first-tier city to bid farewell to the era of "four restrictions" (restrictions on purchases, sales, prices, and loans), but it will also provide a reference sample for other major cities.

"Cut interest rates by 100 basis points!" Trump speaks out again On the evening of June 11, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that the latest US CPI data showed positive results, and he called on the US Fed to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point (100 basis points). US Vice President Vance stated that the US Fed's refusal to cut interest rates was a dereliction of duty in monetary policy. Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had not yet fully materialized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. The data indicated that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the continued weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price decreases. The data showed that energy prices fell by 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose by 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly fell by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases brought about by tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices led to a lower-than-expected reading for the core CPI in May. Some forecasters had believed that these two items would show the early impact of tariffs in May. After the data release, spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $3,360 per ounce. The three major US stock index futures surged briefly but then fell. By the close, the S&P 500 index closed down 16.57 points, or 0.27%, at 6,022.24 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.10 points, or 0.00%, at 42,865.77 points. The Nasdaq closed down 99.11 points, or 0.50%, at 19,615.88 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 81.12 points, or 0.37%, at 21,860.80 points. Trump says "confidence is waning" in reaching a nuclear deal; international oil prices surge According to AFP, both the US and Iran made their latest statements on the US-Iran nuclear negotiations on June 11. US President Trump stated in an interview aired on the same day that his "confidence has waned" in reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran said on June 11 that if negotiations fail and a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will target US military bases in the Middle East. Upon the news, the crude oil market reacted swiftly. WTI crude oil futures for July delivery closed up $3.17/bbl, a 4.88% increase, at $68.15/bbl. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $2.90/bbl, a 4.33% increase, at $69.77/bbl. What is the outlook for the cast aluminum alloy futures market? Yesterday, the most-traded AD2511 cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 19,400 yuan/mt, up 0.91%. Regarding the current operational logic of the cast aluminum alloy market, Xiao Yufei, head of the Nonferrous Metals Research Team at Nanhua Futures, believes that the supply surplus in the cast aluminum alloy industry will persist. The planned new capacity for domestic aluminum alloy ingots in 2024-2025 is 1.145 million mt/year. However, due to various constraints, the actual capacity that has come online is only 260,000 mt/year. It is expected that in 2025, the cast aluminum alloy industry will continue to see capacity growth but with slower commissioning. According to Xiao Yufei, the downstream consumption of cast aluminum alloy mainly flows into sectors such as transportation, machinery manufacturing, home appliances, and hardware. Among them, transportation vehicles, including cars, motorcycles, and EVs, account for over 70% of downstream demand. Therefore, the demand for cast aluminum alloy primarily depends on the performance of the automotive market. The automotive industry has generally performed well this year, with production and sales showing steady growth compared to the same period last year. However, considering that the H2 is approaching the off-season, the growth rate of cast aluminum alloy demand may slow down. In addition, aluminum scrap inventory is tight, and raw material procurement is difficult. The inability to restock in a timely manner has led to a continuous decline in the raw material inventory of secondary aluminum alloy enterprises. "Finished product inventories are at a relatively high level. Given the current loose supply situation, we believe that the inventory buildup trend of secondary aluminum alloy will persist for some time. Considering the high correlation between aluminum alloy prices and SHFE aluminum prices, spot and futures prices are more inclined towards a backwardation structure," Xiao Yufei said. Fu Ying, a nonferrous metals analyst at the Zheshang Futures Research Center, believes that the current cast aluminum alloy market is in a phase of weak supply and demand. The automotive market, a major end-use application for cast aluminum alloy, is currently in an off-season for production. Under the "produce based on sales" model of alloy enterprises, their operating rates will also decline accordingly. Meanwhile, the trend of weakening demand will become more pronounced, with both social inventory and raw material inventory showing continuous accumulation. Therefore, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate around production costs. The first listed futures contract for cast aluminum alloy was AD2511, with a delivery month of November. According to Chen Xinyi, the head of the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Team at Wuchan Zhongda Futures, the aluminum scrap recycling system is relatively "informal," which leads to a decrease in aluminum scrap recycling volume during holidays. Typically, aluminum scrap supply is relatively tight in Q4, and its prices hold up well compared to primary aluminum. From a demand perspective, ADC12 demand exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, with peak seasons generally occurring from September to January of the following year, and November being a peak consumption month. Therefore, the inter-month price spreads for the AD2511, AD2512, and AD2601 contracts are currently in a contango state. "Before the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, spot market reference prices were mostly anchored to the Baotai price," Chen Xinyi said. Currently, the Baotai quote for ADC12 is 19,400 yuan/mt. Considering that some registered brands are priced at a discount to the Baotai price and the slim profit margins of alloy enterprises, companies have little incentive to price and sell futures contracts in advance. Currently, the downside room for aluminum scrap prices, which are closely linked to aluminum prices, is limited. This keeps ADC12 prices relatively strong in the short term, with the main operating range being 19,000-19,600 yuan/mt. In practice, according to Chen Xinyi, the ADC12-A00 price spread exhibits significant seasonal characteristics, weakening in Q2 and strengthening in Q3. Affected by policies, despite a capacity utilisation rate as high as 97%, electrolytic aluminum continues to destock, while the supply and demand of secondary aluminum show a surplus, with the current capacity utilisation rate being less than 50%. When the ADC12-A00 price spread is at historically high levels, the substitution effect of primary aluminum for aluminum scrap gradually becomes apparent. Some companies may consider adjusting their raw material ratios, and increased demand for electrolytic aluminum supports price increases, thereby driving the ADC12-A00 price spread to revert. In the short term, Fu Ying stated that cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to mainly follow aluminum price fluctuations, with cost support existing below. On the one hand, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract, AD2511, is still far from its delivery date, and the price trend of cast aluminum alloy is consistent with that of aluminum. The current low inventory and continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum provide support for aluminum prices. On the other hand, the supply and demand of aluminum scrap are relatively tight, with aluminum scrap costs accounting for nearly 90% of the cost of cast aluminum alloy. The firmness of aluminum scrap prices supports ADC12 prices. However, affected by the traditional off-season, the upside room for cast aluminum alloy prices is also limited. Additionally, under the off-season consumption, the demand for selling hedging by cast aluminum alloy producers is high, which will suppress futures prices. Regarding the key points to be monitored subsequently, Fu Ying believes they mainly include changes in aluminum scrap supply, downstream demand, and the changes and impacts of spot pricing models after the listing of futures. Aluminum scrap supply determines the cost trend of cast aluminum alloy, while downstream demand affects the price spread fluctuations between cast aluminum alloy and primary aluminum. Stronger demand will drive the price spread between the two to revert. Currently, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy mainly refers to the quotes on information websites and the "enterprise quotes + premiums and discounts" model, lacking a relatively open and transparent market mechanism. After the listing of cast aluminum alloy futures, the number of market participants will gradually increase, which will help optimize the spot pricing model.

On Wednesday local time, data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the full impact of Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes had yet to be fully realized, with US CPI inflation in May falling short of expectations across the board. Following the data release, spot gold continued to rally, breaking through the $3,360/ounce mark, while the three major US stock index futures surged in the short term. Specific data revealed that the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May was recorded at 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for May was recorded at 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at the lowest level since March 2021, with an expected value of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for the US in May was recorded at 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.2%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out that persistent weakness in energy and service prices offset the impact of price increases in other goods, while some key items originally expected to rise due to tariffs, particularly car and clothing prices, actually saw price reductions. Data showed that energy prices fell 1% in the month, with gasoline prices dropping 2.6%, and prices for new and used cars falling 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Food prices rose 0.3%, and housing prices also increased by 0.3%, while clothing prices unexpectedly declined by 0.4%, indicating that the cost increases from tariffs had not yet been passed on to consumers. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," commented that the decline in car and clothing prices contributed to the core CPI reading in May falling short of expectations. Some forecasters had believed these two categories would show the early impact of tariffs in May. Economists expect that, as most retailers are still selling goods stockpiled before the tariffs took effect, the full impact of President Trump's across-the-board tariff hikes on inflation has yet to be fully realized. Inflation is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year, with Walmart indicating last month that it would begin raising prices in late May and June. Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "Today's below-expectation inflation data is reassuring—but only to a certain extent. It's premature to conclude that price shocks won't materialize." Shah believes that the impact of tariffs may not be reflected in inflation data until late summer, due to inherent delays in economic data, ongoing changes in tariff policies, merchants stockpiling goods in advance and offering discounts, and some costs being absorbed by retailers and manufacturers themselves. Market pricing suggests that the US Fed may not consider further interest rate cuts before September, as policymakers are assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation. Trump has been urging the US Fed to lower interest rates amid cooling inflation and a slowing labour market. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of an interest rate cut by the US Fed in June is almost zero, while the likelihood of a cut in September is close to 70%. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that mild inflation data in May suggests that tariffs are not having a significant impact at present, as companies have been using existing inventory or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand. "Although we may see some price increases for certain goods in the future, service prices are expected to remain stable, suggesting that any rise in inflation is likely to be temporary." Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said that the current CPI data is much milder than expected. While some imported food prices have risen significantly, such as bananas by 3.3% and toys by 2.2%, egg prices have fallen by 2.7%. Greater stability in trade policies would greatly help avoid runaway inflation. This also reaffirms why the US Fed may shift its risk focus from inflation threats to threats to economic growth.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% YoY. Specifically, prices in urban areas remained flat, while those in rural areas decreased by 0.4%. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained flat. Prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.5%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. On average from January to May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.2% MoM. In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% YoY. The NBS announced that in May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% YoY. Specifically, prices in urban areas remained flat, while those in rural areas decreased by 0.4%. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained flat. Prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.5%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. On average from January to May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.2% MoM. In May, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% MoM, the same rate of decrease as the previous month, and decreased by 3.3% YoY, with the rate of decrease expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% YoY. Specifically, prices in urban areas remained flat, while those in rural areas decreased by 0.4%. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained flat. Prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.5%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. On average from January to May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.2% MoM. Specifically, prices in urban areas decreased by 0.2%, while those in rural areas also decreased by 0.2%. Food prices decreased by 0.2%, while non-food prices also decreased by 0.2%. Prices of consumer goods decreased by 0.3%, while service prices remained flat. I. Year-on-Year Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services In May, prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol increased by 0.1% YoY, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI. Among food items, prices of fresh fruits increased by 5.5%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.12 percentage points in the CPI; prices of aquatic products increased by 2.5%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.05 percentage points in the CPI; prices of meat increased by 0.7%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI, with pork prices increasing by 3.1%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.04 percentage points in the CPI; prices of fresh vegetables decreased by 8.3%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.17 percentage points in the CPI; prices of eggs decreased by 3.5%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI; prices of grains decreased by 1.4%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI. Prices in the other seven categories saw six increases and one decrease YoY. Specifically, prices for other goods and services, clothing, and education, culture, and recreation rose by 7.3%, 1.5%, and 0.9%, respectively, while prices for healthcare, housing, and household goods and services increased by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, respectively. In contrast, prices for transportation and communication fell by 4.3%. II. Month-on-Month Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services In May, prices for food, tobacco, and liquor decreased by 0.2% MoM, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.05 percentage points in the CPI. Among food items, prices for fresh vegetables decreased by 5.9%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.12 percentage points in the CPI; prices for eggs decreased by 0.9%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.01 percentage points in the CPI; prices for meat decreased by 0.2%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.01 percentage points in the CPI, with pork prices decreasing by 0.7%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.01 percentage points in the CPI. Conversely, prices for fresh fruit increased by 3.3%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.07 percentage points in the CPI, and prices for aquatic products increased by 0.8%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI. Prices in the other seven categories saw four increases, one flat, and two decreases MoM. Specifically, prices for other goods and services and clothing increased by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, while prices for education, culture, and recreation and healthcare both increased by 0.1%. Housing prices remained flat. Prices for transportation and communication and household goods and services decreased by 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. CPI Slightly Declined in May 2025, with YoY Growth in Core CPI Expanding —Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for May 2025 by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department, National Bureau of Statistics In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI increased by 0.6% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Producer Price Index for Industrial Products (PPI) decreased by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and decreased by 3.3% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China is boosting consumption with greater intensity and more precise measures, fostering the growth of new quality productive forces, and improving the supply-demand relationship in some areas, leading to positive changes in prices. I. CPI Slightly Declined, with YoY Growth in Core CPI Expanding The shift from an increase to a decrease in CPI MoM was mainly influenced by the decline in energy prices. Energy prices decreased by 1.7% MoM, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.13 percentage points in the CPI MoM, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decline in the CPI. Among them, gasoline prices decreased by 3.8%, with the decline expanding by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. Food prices decreased by 0.2%, with the decline being 1.1 percentage points less than the seasonal level, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.04 percentage points in the CPI MoM. Among these, the market supply of seasonal vegetables increased, leading to a 5.9% decline in fresh vegetable prices. Prices of eggs, pork, and poultry meat remained stable with slight decreases, ranging from 0.3% to 1.0%. Affected by factors such as heavy rainfall in some regions and the summer fishing moratorium, the supply of fresh fruits, freshwater fish, and marine fish decreased, with prices rising by 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.5%, respectively. As consumer demand continued to recover, coupled with the impact of holidays and cultural and recreational activities held across the country, hotel accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, both exceeding seasonal levels. The increase in hotel accommodation prices reached a record high for the same period in the past decade. With the arrival of the summer season and the launch of new summer clothing collections, clothing prices rose by 0.6%. The CPI declined slightly YoY, with the same rate of decrease as the previous month. Among these, energy prices fell by 6.1% YoY, with the rate of decrease expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.47 percentage points in the CPI YoY, which was the main factor behind the CPI's YoY decline. Policies aimed at boosting consumption continued to show positive effects, with prices in some sectors showing positive changes. Core CPI rose by 0.6% YoY, with the rate of increase expanding by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among these, industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy rose by 0.6% YoY, with the rate of increase expanding by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. Prices of gold jewelry, home textiles, and cultural and recreational durable consumer goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8%, respectively, with all rates of increase expanding. Prices of gasoline-powered passenger cars and new energy passenger cars fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively, with the rates of decrease narrowing. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with the rate of increase expanding by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. Among services, rental fees for transportation vehicles, airfares, and tourism prices all turned from decline to increase, rising by 3.6%, 1.2%, and 0.9%, respectively. II. PPI Remained Low, with Marginal Improvements in Prices in Some Sectors The main reasons for the MoM decline in PPI this month are as follows: Firstly, international imported factors influenced the decline in domestic prices of related industries. The decline in international crude oil prices affected the decline in domestic prices of petroleum-related industries, with prices in the oil and natural gas extraction industry falling by 5.6%, prices in refined petroleum product manufacturing falling by 3.5%, and prices in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry falling by 1.2%. These three industries collectively contributed to a decrease of approximately 0.23 percentage points in PPI MoM, accounting for more than half of the total decline. Secondly, domestic prices of some energy and raw materials declined temporarily. Coal demand was in the off-season, with sufficient coal reserves at power plants and ports. Additionally, the low cost and strong substitution effect of new energy power generation led to a 3.0% decline in prices in the coal mining and washing industry and a 1.1% decline in coal processing prices. Increased high-temperature and rainy weather in south China affected the construction of some real estate and infrastructure projects. Coupled with sufficient production and supply of building materials such as steel and cement, prices in the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and the non-metallic mineral products industry both fell by 1.0%. These four industries collectively contributed to a decrease of approximately 0.18 percentage points in PPI MoM. Compounded by factors such as a higher base for comparison with the same period last year, the YoY decline in PPI expanded by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, from the perspective of marginal changes, with the intensified implementation of macro policies in China, the supply-demand relationship in some industries has improved, and prices in certain areas have shown a positive trend. Firstly, the continuous growth of new consumption momentum has driven a YoY rebound in prices of consumer goods. The continuous effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption has led to the release of demand for some consumer goods, driving up prices in related industries. The MoM decline in consumer goods prices turned to flatness from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Among them, prices for clothing, general daily necessities, and durable consumer goods rose by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, respectively, driving the YoY decline in consumer goods prices to narrow by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. From an industry perspective, prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial items manufacturing rose by 12.8% YoY, footwear manufacturing prices increased by 0.8%, computer whole machine manufacturing prices rose by 0.2%, and the YoY declines in prices for household washing machines, television manufacturing, and automobile whole vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 1.6, 1.4, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Secondly, the development of industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing has driven a YoY increase in prices in related industries. The steady advancement of high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in industrial development, along with the expansion of demand for high-tech products, has led to a YoY increase in prices in related industries. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing series, aircraft manufacturing all rose by 3.6%, wearable smart device manufacturing prices increased by 3.0%, microwave communication equipment prices rose by 2.1%, server prices increased by 0.8%, and prices for semiconductor device manufacturing equipment rose by 0.7%. In addition, the supply-demand relationship in new energy industries such as PV and lithium battery has improved, with narrowed YoY declines in prices. Prices for PV equipment and components manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 12.1% and 5.0%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month.