SMM April 30: The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting proposed to "effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, strive to stabilize the real estate market, and solidly advance urban renewal." On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. The Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan outline calls for accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, implementing city-specific policies to increase supply of essential and upgrading housing. Six departments including the Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau optimized and adjusted local real estate policy measures... Industry fundamentals simultaneously recovered at the margin: the latest data from the China Index Academy showed that total bond financing in the real estate sector in March was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM, with the financing environment continuing to improve. Meanwhile, new home transactions in Guangzhou rose significantly MoM, leading first-tier cities. Multiple policy dividends, financing improvements, and recovering property market transactions resonated together, jointly driving the real estate development sector higher. As of the market close on April 30, the real estate development sector rose 1.52%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintou Chengkai, Jinrongjie, Wantong Development, Quzhou Development, and Beichen Industrial hit the daily limit, while Zhongzhou Holdings, Greenland Holdings, Sanxiang Impression, Hefei Urban Construction, and Jingtou Development led gains. News [CPC Central Committee Political Bureau Held a Meeting to Analyze and Study the Current Economic Situation and Economic Work] The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting on April 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting noted that since the beginning of this year, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened overall leadership over economic work, taking a holistic and forward-looking approach. All regions and departments have acted proactively and implemented comprehensive policies. China's economy got off to a strong start, with major indicators exceeding expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. At the same time, there are some difficulties and challenges, and the foundation for sustained and steady economic improvement needs further consolidation. Confidence should be strengthened, and economic work should be pursued with greater intensity and more practical measures. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and solidly advance urban renewal. Local government debt risks should be resolved in an orderly manner, with focus on addressing the issue of overdue payments to enterprises. Reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted, and confidence in the capital market should be stabilized and strengthened. [Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau Issued a Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Local Real Estate-Related Policies] On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. Purchase restrictions: eligible resident families can purchase one additional housing unit in Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an Xin'an Subdistrict; non-Shenzhen-hukou families with valid residence permits can also purchase one unit in the above areas. Housing provident fund: the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for up to 70% upward adjustment. The new policy takes effect from April 30. [Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan Outline: Accelerating the Construction of a New Model for Real Estate Development, Increasing Rigid and Improvement-oriented Housing Supply Based on City-specific Policies] The Outline of Guangdong Province's 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development was officially released, mentioning accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, improving the housing system featuring multi-entity supply, multi-channel guarantee, and both rental and purchase options, striving to stabilize the real estate market and comprehensively enhancing residential quality. City-specific policies will increase rigid and improvement-oriented housing supply, expand supply of both large and small units, appropriately develop high-quality housing meeting the needs of high-net-worth individuals, and better satisfy diversified improvement-oriented housing demand. [China Index Academy: March Real Estate Bond Financing Total Up 48.4% MoM] Latest data from China Index Academy showed that in Q1 2026, financing support policies for real estate enterprises remained accommodative with more diversified financing instruments. Bond financing scale was flat YoY, with credit bonds and ABS remaining the dominant instruments. In March, total real estate bond financing was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM. [Guangzhou New Home Transactions Surge MoM, Leading First-tier Cities] Since the beginning of this year, the Guangzhou real estate market has shown clear signs of recovery. In March, new home volume and prices rose simultaneously, and the "mini spring" momentum continued into April. NBS data showed that Guangzhou new home selling prices were up 0.3% MoM in March, with 7,059 new home online signings citywide, up 241% MoM and up 26.67% YoY. Trading volume and price gains led first-tier cities. Entering April, the Guangzhou market maintained a steady upward trend. According to institutional monitoring, mid-April weekly new home transactions rebounded 5.4% WoW, with project visits and subscriptions in core areas remaining at high levels. By district, Tianhe District, as the core of Guangzhou's main urban area, led the city in transaction activity. In March, Tianhe District new home transactions surged over 500% MoM, ranking first among all 11 districts and becoming the strongest support for this round of Guangzhou's "mini spring." Destocking cycles in core district sub-markets continued to shorten, improvement-oriented demand was concentrated in release, and multiple high-grade projects saw strong sales. (Zhitong Finance) [China Index Academy: National Real Estate Market Still Consolidating at Lows in Q1, Floor Space of New Commercial Buildings Sold Continued to Pull Back YoY] Zhitong Finance APP learned that China Index Academy stated that in Q1 2026, the national real estate market was still consolidating at lows, with the floor space of new commercial buildings sold continuing to pull back YoY. Against this backdrop, quality projects in core cities maintained relatively stable sales performance. According to China Index data, the top 20 projects by sales in key cities in Q1 recorded a combined transaction value exceeding 50 billion yuan, with first-tier city projects occupying 12 spots. CITIC City Development·Xinyue Bay in Nanshan District, Shenzhen topped the list with 6.55 billion yuan in signed contract value, followed by Shenzhen Bay Yunxi and Guangzhou Poly Yuexi Bay in second and third place respectively. [Xinhua Commentary: Stabilization Signals Strengthening, Further Consolidating the Foundation for Real Estate High-Quality Development] The property market's "Golden March, Silver April" is showing initial warmth, with market expectations undergoing positive changes. A series of signals indicate that the real estate market, led by first-tier and hot second-tier cities as "bellwethers," is showing a strengthening trend of stabilization, with industry confidence entering a sustained recovery track. This is not a simple stabilization, but rather the real estate market accumulating momentum to consolidate at lows and recover after undergoing deep adjustment. From adjusting and optimizing housing provident fund policies to the normalization of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms, from housing trade-in policies to intensified efforts in purchasing existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, the more precise and forceful policy measures since the beginning of this year have consolidated the foundation for real estate high-quality development. The stable and healthy development of the real estate market is related to economic performance and people's well-being. Against the backdrop of continued advancement of new-type urbanization, optimizing and adjusting existing stock and achieving a higher level of "housing for all" is a requirement for sustainable economic and social development. Looking toward the "15th Five-Year Plan" development goals, accelerating transformation with more precise and forceful measures, balancing short-term market stabilization with long-term institutional improvement, is the way to truly drive real estate to achieve high-quality development. [Lujiazui: Residential Sales Contract Value at 9.343 Billion Yuan in 2025, Up 28% YoY] Lujiazui announced that from January to December 2025, the company achieved real estate leasing cash inflows of 3.763 billion yuan, down 10% YoY; equity leasing cash inflows were 3.071 billion yuan, down 10% YoY. Contract sales of residential properties totaled 9.343 billion yuan, up 28% YoY, with equity contract sales of 6.283 billion yuan, up 25% YoY. Cash inflows from residential property sales reached 10.791 billion yuan, up 76% YoY, with equity sales cash inflows of 7.104 billion yuan, up 64% YoY. Cash inflows from office project sales were 641 million yuan, with equity sales cash inflows of 353 million yuan. Newly started GFA was 163,900 m², and completed GFA was 410,200 m². [China Merchants Shekou Secured Two Land Parcels in Shanghai in One Day, with the Xuhui Botanical Garden Plot at a 25% Premium] On April 21, during Shanghai's third land auction of 2026, the plot xh290-09 in the S031201 unit of Xuhui District was acquired by Shanghai Zhaohui Qingya Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. for 3.3 billion yuan after 82 rounds of bidding, at a floor price of approximately 87,000/m² and a premium rate of 25%. Excluding the 3,500 m² of mandatory construction, the available-for-sale floor cost was approximately 96,000/m². The plot attracted 9 bidders, including Shanghai Chengtou, China Merchants Shekou, CNOOC, the "C&D+Xiangyu" consortium, Yuexiu, the "Poly+West Bund" consortium, CR Land, Greentown, and the "Jinmao+Qingneng" consortium. [Six Departments Including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau Optimized and Adjusted Local Real Estate Policy Measures] Six departments including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting local real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising the maximum housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum personal housing loan limits for single and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of home purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families purchase a second self-use residence and apply for provident fund loans, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the loan amount increase ratio for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing certified as prefabricated construction projects, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit; for commercial housing meeting the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [Foshan Launched Trade-in Program for Commercial Housing!First batch involving 22 housing projects] Recently, the "Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing 'Trade-in' Program by Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau" was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document, but a systematic solution to unblock replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to "a virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. [China Real Estate News: Make good and flexible use of policies to strengthen efforts in stabilizing the property market] China Real Estate News published a commentary article. In this opening year, the real estate market achieved encouraging results in its upward and stable trajectory. In terms of transaction data, from Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, to Nanjing, Hangzhou, Changchun, Yinchuan, and Dalian, and further to Yichang, Ningbo, and Yantai across all city tiers, the property market at the start of this year exuded signs of recovery. Both new and second-hand housing markets showed clear momentum of activity, with cities like Shanghai and Beijing even showing obvious transaction expansion signals. In March, Shanghai's second-hand housing online signed transactions reached 31,215 units, the highest in nearly five years; Beijing's new commercial housing transactions exceeded 3,600 units, more than tripling from February. From the national perspective, the property market also exhibited increasingly strong structural recovery characteristics. Real estate stable development has always been closely linked to financial and tax policy. Every subtle policy optimization and empowerment adds "lubricant" at critical junctures of market operation, reducing the "friction coefficient." Currently, the market has shown a positive "Golden March, Silver April" trend, which is also a critical period for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Local governments should strive to act where policies can make a difference and intensify efforts where action is warranted. This approach is ultimately anchored in the two short-term and long-term goals of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development of real estate, continuously enhancing the certainty and sustainability of China's real estate stability and high-quality development. [Jiangsu Taizhou: Encouraging State-Owned Enterprises and Real Estate Development Enterprises to Launch Shared-Ownership Commercial Housing for Sale to Young People, New Urban Residents and Other Groups] The Notice on Implementing Several Measures to Stabilise the Real Estate Market, jointly issued by the Taizhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and the Municipal Finance Bureau, officially took effect on the 17th. It proposed increasing housing purchase support for "young and new resident groups," implementing loan interest subsidies for "young talents." For young talents who use housing provident fund and commercial loans to purchase their first new commercial housing in the urban area, a 2% fiscal interest subsidy on the loan amount will be provided annually for a period of 2 years. Meanwhile, it supports shared-ownership commercial housing pilot programmes, encouraging state-owned enterprises and real estate development enterprises to launch shared-ownership commercial housing for sale to young people, new urban residents and other groups. [NDRC: Focusing on Expanding Effective Domestic Demand, to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand Strategy] On 17 April, the State Council Information Office held a thematic press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," introducing the high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a global economic stabiliser, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts will focus on five areas. First, implementing a macro policy package, preparing a batch of comprehensive policy measures in advance and rolling them out in a timely manner as needed; second, focusing on expanding effective domestic demand, formulating the 2026–2030 implementation plan for expanding domestic demand strategy, and promoting the early commencement of qualified major projects; third, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, accelerating the development of emerging industries, deeply implementing the AI+ initiative, fostering new forms of intelligent economy, thoroughly implementing the spirit of the national services industry conference, and advancing the mechanism for expanding the services sector; fourth, intensifying efforts to stabilise employment and boost incomes, implementing the action plan for stabilising jobs, expanding capacity and improving quality, formulating and implementing income growth plans for urban and rural residents, strengthening inclusive and basic livelihood programmes, and enhancing social security for vulnerable groups; fifth, consolidating the foundation for safe development, making every effort to ensure supply and stabilise prices of energy resources, grain and other important livelihood commodities, accelerating the construction of a new-type energy system, and working to stabilise the real estate market. [National New Commercial Housing Sales Reached Approximately 1.73 Trillion Yuan in Q1, with the "Little Spring" Rally Driving Month-on-Month Increases in Both Volume and Price in March] On 16 April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the basic situation of the national real estate market for January–March 2026. Data showed that in Q1, the decline in national commercial housing sales narrowed significantly compared to the first two months. Driven by the "mini spring boom," both volume and price rose in March alone. However, supply-side indicators such as development investment and new construction starts remained in a downward range, with the overall market still consolidating at lows and recovering. Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst at Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, noted that in terms of monthly performance, national new commercial housing saw both volume and price rise in March, with sales area and sales revenue up 10.1% and 10.9% YoY respectively, and an average selling price of 8,870 yuan/m², up 0.7% MoM. Driven by the traditional spring peak season, trading volume in March rebounded significantly from February. However, based on cumulative data, Q1 national new housing transactions remained weaker than the same period last year, with the market still in a consolidation phase. [Zhengzhou Introduces 8 New Housing Policies] On April 10, the Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market." 1. Supporting young people in home purchases. Financial institutions are encouraged to offer specialized financial products and services to young people under 35 who come to Zhengzhou for employment or entrepreneurship, better meeting their diversified housing credit needs. 2. Strengthening home purchase support for multi-child families. Multi-child families that already own one home locally may apply for housing provident fund loans with a maximum loan amount 20% higher than the family's first-home loan cap when purchasing another commercial residence. 3. Implementing down payment ratios for commercial property loans. Financial institutions are guided to implement the policy of a minimum down payment ratio of no less than 30% for commercial property purchase loans. 4. Clarifying standards for determining the number of homes owned. When purchasing a new home within the city, only the buyer's housing status in the administrative district where the intended property is located will be checked; those with no housing will be recognized as first-home buyers. 5. Optimizing provident fund loan application conditions. Before December 31, 2026, when applicants meet other existing loan conditions and have no outstanding provident fund loan balance, they may apply for housing provident fund loans under first-time loan policies when purchasing upgrade housing. 6. Increasing affordable rental housing supply. Through multiple channels including acquisition, new construction, and conversion, supply will be effectively increased, with 10,000 units allocated in 2026; the application and allocation process will be optimized to improve efficiency and fairness, leveraging housing's role in attracting and retaining talent. 7. Improving supporting public services. Families that have purchased commercial housing and actually moved in may enjoy basic public services such as school district enrollment for school-age children by presenting their online-registered commercial housing sales contracts. 8. Implementing a "one property, one code" system for second-hand housing. Information disclosure in the second-hand housing market will be strengthened, with enhanced property verification and code assignment. Using trading platforms such as "Zheng Hao Fang" and "Zheng Fang Trading Network" to complete ownership verification and generate a unique property verification code, achieving "one property, one code" for second-hand housing. [CRIC Real Estate Research: The top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale in Q1 saw new contracted construction area up 11% YoY] According to Zhitong Finance, CRIC Real Estate Research reported that in Q1 2026, the top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale achieved new contracted construction area of 50.437 million m², up 11% YoY. Compared with the 16% growth rate of the top 20 enterprises in 2025, this represented a slowdown of 5 percentage points; however, it was 5 percentage points higher than the growth rate in Q1 2025. Overall, competition in agency construction business expansion remained intense, with deep differentiation emerging among enterprises. [Shanghai Second-hand Home Monthly Transactions Returned to 30,000 Units for the First Time in 5 Years! Multiple New Home Projects Plan to Gradually Reduce Discounts] For the first time in 5 years, Shanghai's monthly second-hand home transactions returned to the 30,000-unit threshold, with the "Golden March" market rally delivering strongly. According to data from the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center's official website "Online Real Estate," in March, cumulative online signings of second-hand homes in Shanghai reached 31,215 units, hitting the highest level in nearly 5 years since March 2021. Li Gen, head of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, stated that the "mini spring rally" in Shanghai's second-hand housing market in March was robust, with transaction data confirming a strong return of market confidence. Citywide second-hand home trading volume not only grew 6% YoY from March last year but also surged 37% from January this year. The heated second-hand housing market was also gradually transmitting to the new home market. Shanghai Centaline Property data showed that in March, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential properties in Shanghai reached 563,000 m², surging 251.6% MoM, an unprecedented rebound. Notably, as the market recovered, signals of narrowing discounts and stabilizing prices in the new home market began to emerge. Among them, Poly Duhui Hexu had previously announced that transaction prices for townhouse units on sale would be raised by 0.5% across the board starting March 9; starting March 23, discounts were further tightened. In addition, Jinhai Yunshu, Huafa Haishang Duhui, Yijiang Zhendi and other projects also plan to gradually reduce discounts starting April. [China Index Academy: Top 100 Enterprises' Total Land Acquisition Amounted to 146.52 Billion Yuan in January–March] The latest "Top 100 National Real Estate Enterprises by Land Acquisition in January–March 2026" ranking released by China Index Academy showed that in January–March 2026, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 enterprises was 146.52 billion yuan, down 49.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points MoM. After the Chinese New Year holiday, land supply and transactions recovered across various regions. Hot topic land parcels were offered in cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, and developers' land acquisition intensity rebounded MoM, with the decline in land acquisition value narrowing. In terms of characteristics, premium land parcels in core cities attracted intense competition, with state-owned enterprises remaining the dominant buyers. Voices from Various Parties Rajiv Batra, a strategist at JPMorgan in Singapore, said Hong Kong's property recovery is spreading to major mainland cities, while the lagged wealth effect from China's stock market rebound is helping revive housing demand. "After five years of correction, early signs of recovery have emerged in China's real estate sector in March, potentially approaching a turning point," Batra said. "We are relatively optimistic that China will outperform other emerging markets." Huatai Securities noted in a research report that March real estate data showed marginal improvement in both sales volume and prices, with home prices entering a phase of positive second-order derivative, especially as first-tier cities saw MoM price rebounds, signaling gradual restoration of market confidence. Huatai Securities believes that although the investment side is still hitting bottom, the increasing spontaneity of market recovery has enhanced the sustainability of price improvement and is also expected to bring opportunities for positioning in property stocks. Key recommendations: enterprises with lighter historical burdens or healthier cash flows, preparing for a new round of expansion; enterprises with low valuations and sufficient impairment provisions; enterprises with exposure in regions where the first-order derivative has turned positive; enterprises in existing property transactions and the back-end of the real estate industry chain. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that in 2025, high-quality development has become the core theme for the property management and commercial management industry. Enterprises have refocused on their core property management service business. As cost reduction and efficiency gains materialize and impairment pressures are gradually released, overall corporate performance has shown positive changes. Enterprise performance has diverged, with some quality property and commercial management companies achieving sustained earnings growth. Against the backdrop of expanding domestic demand, the overall development of the real estate industry continues to be supported by policies. The firm remains optimistic about property management and operational services, recommending leading transaction intermediaries, construction agency service providers, and property enterprises with high service quality and operational efficiency. China Post Securities stated: Overall, the real estate industry is at a critical period of consolidating at lows, structural differentiation, and business model reshaping. The cumulative effect of policies is beginning to emerge, and the worst phase of the market may have passed, but industry recovery will still exhibit structural and gradual characteristics. April to May is a window for trend verification. If a stronger-than-usual off-season with price stabilization materializes, the expectation gap between the "policy bottom" and "earnings bottom" is expected to converge rapidly, improving the risk-reward of positioning for valuation recovery. Conversely, if price pressures intensify, allocation should lean more toward defensive plays and cash flow certainty, with secondary market activity remaining a leading signal. China Chengxin International analyzed in a research report: At the national level, policy guidance in housing and urban construction continues to be strengthened, using "quality housing" construction as the lever to systematically enhance residential quality across standards, design, construction, and operation & maintenance, promoting developers to focus on product quality upgrades. The concurrent urban renewal efforts, leveraging the promotion of mature experience and targeted central fiscal support, have established a standardized and efficient implementation framework, effectively resolving implementation challenges and forming a new development paradigm where housing quality improvement and urban renewal work in synergy. BOC International Securities stated that the property market has seen a "mini spring rally" over the past two months, but its sustainability remains to be observed, with subsequent trends depending on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. The continuation of the phased recovery also requires stronger policy support. Attention should be paid to the sequence of "late-April Politburo meeting — May ministerial detailed rules — local execution." We expect that the positive stance is likely to continue under the existing "stabilizing real estate" framework, with greater emphasis on implementation and policy coordination. In Q2, attention can be given to high-frequency fundamentals and the pace of local policy implementation, where policy-driven trading opportunities exist. Additionally, a "fundamental inflection point" may emerge around Q4, potentially reflected in a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices. From an investment perspective, most property developers made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, meaning sector profit margins and earnings could rebound in 2027, thereby driving a reassessment of 27E valuations by the market in Q4 this year. Beyond that, some commercial real estate companies with investment properties have already proactively positioned themselves in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, making them better equipped to seize opportunities in the new consumption era.

1. Guangdong Jushen Warehousing Co., Ltd. is approved as an international copper delivery warehouse of our exchange, located at No. 16 Baojiang Road, Huangpu District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, with an approved storage capacity of 10,000 mt and no regional premiums. 2. Hengruibao Warehousing (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is approved to add a new storage location at No. 60 Baojin Road, Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Guangdong Province, with an approved storage capacity of 10,000 mt for international copper and no regional premiums. 3. The above shall take effect from the date of this announcement.

[Electric Drive Assembly Designated Orders Landed, Magnesium Alloy Opens Up Incremental Space in Automotive Sector] Recently, the application of magnesium alloy in the lightweighting of NEVs accelerated, with semi-solid die casting and large-scale integrated molding technology becoming the mainstream direction. Orders and capacity for core components such as electric drive housings and auto body structural parts advanced simultaneously.

[Divergent Terminal Order Performance, Zinc Oxide Operating Rates Moved Sideways] This week, the decline in zinc oxide operating rates was mainly due to some small enterprises being in a state of production suspension due to poor orders, dragging down overall operating levels. Currently, although large zinc oxide factories maintained stable orders, industry profits were thin, with intense low-price competition across various products. By sector, tyre factories' orders were relatively stable, but feed-grade zinc oxide performed sluggishly...

[SMM News] Shenzhen further relaxed housing purchase restrictions, with housing provident fund loan limits significantly increased.

On April 17, a delegation from SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), including Ye Jianhua, Director and Supervisor of SMM's Industry Research Department, Feng Chundi, Expert at SMM's Industry Research Institute, and Wu Tao, SMM's Overseas Marketing Manager for Copper and Tin, visited CNIT Zambia Limited for an on-site survey and exchange. The company's relevant leaders extended a warm reception. During the exchange, the relevant person in charge of CNIT Zambia Limited provided a detailed introduction to the enterprise's development overview and core operations. The SMM survey team, drawing on the current status of the ex-China non-ferrous industry market and industry research experience, shared insights on the global copper product circulation landscape, cross-border trade logistics conditions, ex-China ore production and sales support, and industry market dynamics. Both parties engaged in pragmatic and in-depth discussions on core topics including cross-border storage and transportation operations of non-ferrous metals in Africa, cross-border logistics cost management, supply chain stability assurance, ex-China logistics network deployment, and future industry development trends. This on-site visit effectively enhanced mutual communication and understanding, laying a solid foundation for subsequent regular industry exchanges, information sharing, and industry chain collaboration. Introduction to CNIT Zambia Limited CNIT Zambia Limited (CNIT ZAMBIA LIMITED, referred to as Zambia Company) was established in 2019 as a wholly-owned overseas platform of CNMC International Trading Co. Ltd. (referred to as CNMC International Trading) for deepening its presence in the Central and Southern African market. The enterprise focuses on logistics return transportation of equity copper products as its core business, concentrating on cross-border transportation of non-ferrous metal products such as copper cathode and blister copper, while simultaneously expanding market-oriented value-added services including warehousing and maintenance, local customs clearance, and trunk-line logistics. Leveraging its regional logistics transit hub advantages, Zambia Company is positioned as CNMC International Trading's inland transshipment hub and frontline operations center in Central and Southern Africa. It efficiently integrates quality local resources including vehicle fleets, warehousing facilities, and port customs clearance, fully undertaking bulk material storage and transportation tasks for copper products, coal, and other materials in the Zambia and DRC regions, consolidating a stable foundation for the regional industry chain and supply chain. Scheduled to be held on October 13-14, 2026 in Lusaka, Zambia. Welcome to participate! Conference Contact : Wu Tao: 18270916376 jennywu@smm.cn

SMM April 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper down 0.29%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.37%, hitting an intraday high of 152,230 yuan/mt, the highest since January 26. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were flat at 23,175 yuan/mt, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.45%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.6%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.08%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.77%, rebar up 0.31%, hot-rolled coil up 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.55%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.22%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.79%. LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead rose 0.49%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 1.14%. LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold edged up 0.07%, COMEX silver rose 0.65%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.07%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.13% to 2,252.9 points. As of 11:40 on April 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for two consecutive sessions, mainly due to weak downstream consumption... Macro front China: [31 World Firsts: China's Mineral Resource Inventory Published, with Continued Increase in Exploration Investment Planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released China's latest mineral resource inventory. China ranked first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, China's mineral production and smelting processing scale ranks firmly first globally. In 2025, the national mining output value was approximately 32.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Resource reserves grew significantly, laying a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and controllability. Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the state will continue to deeply implement a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs. The Ministry of Natural Resources will further improve the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserves, and sales of strategic mineral resources, and strengthen security risk monitoring and early warning for strategic mineral resources. In terms of key directions, efforts will focus on scarce strategic minerals such as copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating the resource position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and tin. In terms of spatial layout, land-sea coordination will be strengthened, with active expansion of survey, exploration, and development space, and increased efforts in basic geological surveys. The goal is to submit a number of mineral sites ready for development by 2030 and form new capacity as soon as possible. The PBOC conducted 25.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%. Today, 6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.66. US Fed watchers did not expect significant changes to the Fed's statement, but they noted there could be some subtle adjustments. For example, officials might revise their description of the labour market to acknowledge that recent data suggested the labour market had stabilized despite less hiring activity. Some officials also wanted the Fed to make clear that the next policy move could be a rate hike—rather than an interest rate cut—as the Iran situation had intensified existing inflationary pressures. To signal this view, officials could slightly adjust the wording of "the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the benchmark rate." Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report: "A hawkish statement might remove the word 'additional,' as it implies a dovish lean and effectively signals a continuation of a series of interest rate cuts." The US Fed made three interest rate cuts at year-end 2025. Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chairman of the US Fed and economist, stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed would say that the labour market is roughly in a stable state at present. Regarding the inflation mandate, (as inflation remains elevated at 3%), there is still much work to be done." He expected the US Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how all this plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved labor market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence index, Eurozone April industrial confidence index, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Germany's April preliminary CPI month-on-month, US March annualized housing starts, US March durable goods orders month-on-month, US March building permits, and Bank of Canada interest rate decision through April 29. Also noteworthy: Bank of Canada to release its rate decision and monetary policy report; US Senate Banking Committee to vote on advancing Waller's Fed Chairman nomination, with a full Senate confirmation vote to follow if passed; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers to hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.77% and Brent down 0.47%. Both WTI and Brent continued to pull back in the short term, fully erasing gains since the news that Trump planned to extend the blockade on Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials said Trump had instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, a high-risk attempt aimed at striking Iran's fiscal revenue and forcing concessions on the nuclear issue. Officials said that in recent discussions, including a Monday White House Situation Room meeting, Trump decided to continue suppressing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from Iranian ports. On April 28 local time, satellite imagery showed multiple oil tankers in waters near Iran's Chabahar Port, including 8 very large crude carriers and several small and medium-sized vessels, with a total capacity of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil. Chabahar Port is located on the Gulf of Oman coast in southeastern Iran. Although the port is located outside the Persian Gulf, it is already close to the blockade line set by the US. Analysts noted that as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly dropped to zero, rerouting some oil exports is one of the measures Iran has taken to minimize disruptions to its oil exports. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

SMM News, April 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.18%, SHFE zinc fell 2.46%, SHFE tin fell 1.88%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.58%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous three trading days, falling 4.11%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.62%, rebar fell 0.88%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.97%, and stainless steel rose 1.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.52%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead fell 0.31%, and LME zinc fell 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.32%. LME nickel rose 0.65%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.45%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.65%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.27%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.95%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.47% to 2,208.1 points. As of 11:39 on April 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased warehouse withdrawals... Macro front China: [SASAC: Continue to push efforts in key areas such as NEVs and artificial intelligence, driving emerging industries to develop with greater momentum] A signed article by the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council published in Study and Research stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts must focus on opening up a "second curve" of growth, adopting tailored and coordinated policies for different enterprises, promoting smooth and strong succession of old and new growth drivers, accelerating the development of a batch of emerging pillar industries that lead future competition, and better supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The article proposed coordinating the transformation of traditional industries with the development of emerging industries. On one hand, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, green development, and integration, deepening and expanding the "AI+" initiative, stepping up efforts in technological upgrading and equipment renewal, vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and further accelerating the transformation of traditional industries. On the other hand, following the approach of "leading a batch, catching up with a batch, and cultivating a batch," based on enterprise resource endowments and industrial foundations, adhering to differentiated layouts, further consolidating advantages in new energy, aerospace and other industries, continuing to push forward in key areas such as NEVs, artificial intelligence, and new materials, and proactively cultivating frontier tracks such as quantum information, nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy, driving emerging industries to build stronger momentum. (Jin10 Data) [Guangdong: Increasing Support for Trade-in of Bulk Durable Consumer Goods Such as Automobiles and Home Appliances] The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Guangdong Province was officially released. It mentioned the bulk consumption upgrade initiative. Promoting the "fiscal subsidies + enterprise discounts + financial empowerment" model, increasing support for trade-in of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and continuing to implement consumption-boosting policies such as "Guangdong Premium Shopping." Implementing automobile replacement and retirement and renewal policies, encouraging eligible cities to issue subsidies for new car purchases. Expanding after-market consumption such as automobile modification and leasing. Accelerating the construction of recycling systems for automobiles, electronic products, home appliances and furniture. Actively, prudently, and orderly advancing urban village renovation under new models, expanding the supply of affordable housing, and better meeting housing consumption demand. The PBOC conducted 43.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%. 5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.5. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent US tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, though the exact figure remained uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on his own would increase the fiscal deficit by $2 trillion over ten years, while other trade measures Trump had taken to offset this loss totaled $800 billion to $900 billion (in revenue). Swagel stated: "Because the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs and the government reimposed some, the fiscal deficit over ten years would be approximately $1.1 trillion higher."The government has significant power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so it is difficult to determine the exact deficit amount before the entire process is concluded." Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on April 27 local time that with persistent inflationary pressures coupled with an economic slowdown, policymakers must remain cautious. Dalio said on Monday, "We are undoubtedly in a period of stagflation," warning that the US economy had fallen into a stagflationary environment. He noted that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Fed Chairman, chose to cut interest rates, it would be a policy mistake. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.5%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA House Price Index MoM, the US February S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted Home Price Index YoY, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also worth watching: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. On other currencies: [BOJ Kept Rates Unchanged as Expected, Three Members Advocated for a Rate Hike] The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but three of the nine-member policy board proposed a rate hike, signaling concerns over inflationary pressures triggered by Middle East conflicts. The 6-to-3 vote also marked the largest split since Ueda Kazuo became governor. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the BOJ decided to keep the short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with broad market expectations. Board members Takada Hajime, Tamura Naoki, and Nakagawa Junko dissented, advocating for raising the rate to 1.0%. Nakagawa Junko argued that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation, price risks were tilted to the upside under accommodative financial conditions given economic developments. Tamura Naoki argued that given price risks were significantly tilted to the upside, the BOJ should set the policy rate as close to the neutral rate as possible. Takada Hajime argued that Japan's price stability target had essentially been achieved, and price risks had clearly tilted to the upside due to second-round effects of price increases triggered by developments outside China. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to brief the media on the decision later. (Jin10 Data APP) Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that three votes in favor of a rate hike was somewhat surprising, and that policy board member Nakagawa Junko also switched to supporting a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of the Middle East shock has begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to the price side. Meanwhile, the yen remains under depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to maintain its rate-hike inclination. If easing of Middle East tensions can be confirmed, the bank is expected to raise rates further around June-July. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 0.8%. The US-Iran deadlock remained unresolved, and market sentiment was generally cautious. According to the Wall Street Journal, as the US Navy enforced a blockade and negotiations remained deadlocked, Iran was scrambling to find new oil storage methods to avoid devastating production shutdowns. As oil piled up domestically, Iran was reactivating abandoned sites known as "junk storage," using makeshift containers, and attempting to continue exports by rail. These unconventional measures aimed to delay an infrastructure crisis and undermine US leverage in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Huatai Securities noted in a research report that, considering hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with potentially months-long production resumptions at shut-in Middle East oil fields and a round of strategic restocking of crude oil, refined products, and other energy and chemical products globally after the strait reopens, the medium-term oil price center is expected to stay high, maintaining the 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast at $90/barrel. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Stagflation Expectations Heat Up Combined with China Inventory Buildup, Divergence Between SHFE and LME Aluminum Continues] Overall, geopolitical risks outside China persisted and supply tightened, keeping LME aluminum prices on a relatively strong footing; high inventory levels in China combined with weak demand limited SHFE upside room, with a clear divergence between SHFE and LME price trends.