This week, the macro narrative shifted from geopolitics to monetary policy. On June 17, the FOMC took a hawkish hold, keeping rates unchanged but signaling a bias toward further tightening, with the new Fed Chair Warsh reiterating the commitment to restoring price stability. The US dollar strengthened and rate hike expectations heated up, combined with sluggish traditional copper consumption sectors in China, leaving copper prices under pressure and briefly falling below $6/lb early in the week to a seven-week low. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June. Crude oil extended its decline, with WTI falling below $70/bbl to near pre-war levels, and the earlier geopolitical risk premium largely faded. Mid-week, supported by the delay of full production resumption at Grasberg to early 2028 and dip-buying, copper prices stabilized slightly; late in the week, inflation data released largely met expectations, improving sentiment at the margin. Overall, a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar exerted major downward pressure, while cooler geopolitics eroded supply-side risk premiums, leading copper prices to retreat from highs with a lower center. Fundamentals side, the price pullback activated downstream restocking. After copper prices fell to a seven-week low, downstream dip-buying and restocking orders rebounded notably, with SMM social inventory turning to destocking again; spot premiums remained firm, and demand displayed a price-sensitive pattern of dipping at lows but lacking momentum at higher prices. On the supply side, imported and domestic arrivals were steady, while the approaching month-end delivery caused some disruption to the nearby contract structure. The overall picture reflected price-driven impulse restocking and destocking but a weak consumption base, providing some support to the downside but limited upside momentum for copper prices. Looking ahead to next week, the macro focus will be on the US refined copper tariff ruling on June 30 (which directly affects COMEX-LME spreads and arbitrage flows to ports), along with the progress on the US-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; the hawkish Fed and strong US dollar will continue to weigh on risk appetite in the near term. Fundamentals side, the Grasberg production resumption delay and dip-buying will provide support to the downside, but weak consumption at higher prices and fading geopolitical premiums will cap upside potential. LME copper is expected to trade at $12,700–$13,300/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to trade at 101,000–103,500 yuan/mt, characterized by sideways movement after retreating from highs, with a weaker center; spot premiums are expected to consolidate at lows, with attention on the tariff ruling and the sustainability of restocking after month-end delivery.

[SMM Analysis] China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Export Competitiveness Continues to Strengthen, Import Substitution Progress Continues to Advance

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM, June 25: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on delivering orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance. Trading sentiment was sluggish, and prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 11,280-11,700 yuan/mt; cryolite prices held steady, with SMM quoting 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: China’s 97% wet-process fluorite market was generally stable this week, with mainstream delivered prices at 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt and regional price differences persisting. On the supply side, high-grade resources remained tight due to safety and environmental protection inspections and production restrictions at small mines. This was compounded by a slowdown in imports from Mongolia and limited spot circulation, keeping inventories low and strengthening miners' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side showed clear divergence. Traditional refrigerants were in the off-season, with losses at hydrofluoric acid firms suppressing purchases, which remained predominantly need-based and under long-term contracts. However, demand for lithium battery electrolytes and electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid was stable, providing support for high-quality fluorite. Overall, the supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term, and incremental imports are limited, with prices most likely holding up well. Nonetheless, downstream appetite to chase higher prices was insufficient, capping any gains. China’s aluminum hydroxide market edged up within a narrow range this week; the SMM weighted average aluminum hydroxide price was 1,698 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 0.89% WoW. Upstream cost support kept spot quotations firm, while downstream purchases were only as needed on a need-to basis, limiting overall transaction volume growth. The sulphuric acid market moved sideways at high levels, with price changes difficult in either direction. Low upstream sulphur spot inventory further consolidated the cost floor; combined with acid producers cutting production due to losses and clustered maintenance shutdowns across regions, supply in certain areas became relatively tight. However, the phosphate fertilizer sector entering its off-season and subdued purchase willingness capped sharp price increases for acid, while steady demand from the LFP new energy sector and fine chemicals provided bottom support. Synthesizing raw material-side performance this week, the fluorite market remained stable, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid rose, with divergent raw material price trends pushing up the comprehensive production cost of aluminum fluoride. The supply side continued operating under a pattern of persistently rigid high costs, sustained profit pressure, and low operating rates. Synchronized strength in sulphuric acid and aluminum hydroxide this week drove up overall production costs, pushing the industry into widespread losses. Incidents of enterprise maintenance shutdowns and flexible production cuts increased, with the industry operating rate holding at a low level of around 40%, limiting the incremental supply of effective spot cargo. On the demand side, the operating aluminum capacity downstream remained high and stable, providing a rigid support floor for aluminum fluoride demand. However, aluminum smelters only purchased as needed for rigid demand restocking, while simultaneously pushing for lower prices and standing by, with no release of additional incremental procurement. Summary: There was no significant directional catalyst in the aluminum fluoride market this week. The firm cost side continued to support prices, and the industry remained in a state of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates. In the short term, upstream raw material prices remain the core factor influencing the market, with limited downstream demand growth, and the market is likely to continue the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Next month, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to have strong downside support and some upside elasticity. However, constrained by the procurement pace of end-users, the room for price increases will still hinge on raw material costs and procurement changes at aluminum enterprises.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, touched a high of $13,289/mt right after opening, then its center moved downward to hit $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, down 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, open interest stood at 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, open interest stood at 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position additions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, in terms of regional structure, available supply in Changzhou has become significantly looser than before, with the previous tightness effectively alleviated, weakening the support for local spot premiums. From the perspective of supplier behavior, as the month-end cash collection period approaches, sentiment to offload cargo remains high, and suppliers have a strong willingness to continuously lower offer prices. During the day, discounts for some brands have widened to around 100 yuan/mt, and this trend is expected to continue tomorrow. On the demand side, following the decline in copper prices, some copper semis processing enterprises reported an increase in order volume; according to SMM, some end-user transactions were concentrated in the 102,500–103,000 yuan/mt range, indicating that current price levels are moderately attractive to downstream, with dip-buying willingness improving. However, due to aggressive price cuts by suppliers, downstream buyers still mainly push for lower prices in procurement, with limited willingness to chase higher prices. The import loss narrowed sharply to 80–30 yuan/mt, approaching the import breakeven point. Going forward, it is necessary to monitor the inflow of ex-China supplies. Overall, under the combined effect of selling pressure and downstream dip-buying, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount, or to widen slightly, tomorrow.

SMM June 24: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven mainly by increased arrivals. Quotations were chaotic today; standard-quality copper traded at parity in early trading, but some suppliers, seeing copper prices continue to fall, held prices firm and offered at 50 yuan/mt. However, the sharp increase led downstream buyers to refrain from chasing higher prices, and trading showed a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness. The buying sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.66, up 0.04 from the previous trading day, and the selling sentiment was 2.85, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, as copper prices continued to fall, suppliers began to hold prices firm and sell, spot premiums bottomed out, and overall trading was moderate.

June 23, 2026 The price of gold is currently feeling the full brunt of U.S. monetary policy. Bank of America, which was still among the market’s biggest optimists as recently as January and had forecast a rapid rise to $6,000 per ounce by spring, has had to adjust its short-term outlook. While the long-term fundamental arguments in favor of the precious metal remain intact, the Federal Reserve’s radically changed interest rate outlook is now forcing the analyst team to adopt a more defensive stance—at least in the short term. Interest Rate Hikes Instead of Cuts: The Fed’s Inflation Trap The key headwind for gold is the abrupt reversal in interest rate expectations. While investors were still firmly expecting interest rate cuts at the start of the year, the war in Iran has sparked a global energy crisis and massively fueled inflation concerns. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts the probability of another rate hike by September at over 70 percent. This restrictive environment weighs on the non-interest-bearing precious metal, as rising bond yields drive up the opportunity cost for gold investors. This shift from an environment of “inflationary rate cuts” to tight monetary policy cuts gold’s immediate upside potential in half, according to BofA. The problem: Even a swift peace agreement would hardly resolve the persistent inflation immediately, given established Trump tariffs, strained supply chains, and rising housing costs. Gold is thus caught in a short-term dilemma: While it benefits as a classic hedge against inflation, it is held back by the central bank’s necessarily restrictive stance. Megatrends remain intact: The structural fundamentals are growing Despite these headwinds, Bank of America is sticking to its overarching bullish scenario, as the U.S. macroeconomic environment provides the perfect breeding ground for higher prices. A ballooning budget deficit of around six percent of gross domestic product and a lack of fiscal consolidation are increasingly raising doubts about the sustainability of the U.S. debt burden—especially as foreign investors are already reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. This is accompanied by global de-dollarization: According to recent surveys, 74 percent of central banks expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to decline over the next five years. This promises sustained strong purchasing power from the central banking sector. Once the looming interest rate hikes are fully priced in or off the table, investment demand is also likely to surge significantly. Currently, gold investments account for only 5.5 percent of global equity and bond markets. Analysts at Bank of America see enormous potential for growth here, particularly as institutional investors are shifting from the traditional 60:40 portfolio toward a 60:20:20 structure, in which alternative hedges such as gold are given significantly greater weight. For forward-thinking commodity investors, the report thus paints a clear picture: The short-term correction driven by interest rate policy merely masks massive, structural upside potential. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-the-gold-correction-an-opportunity-bofa-sticks-to-its-usd6-000-target-despite-headwinds-from

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some suppliers will have month-end payment collection needs and will offload cargoes in the market, dragging down the center of spot premiums. Actual transaction discounts for standard-quality copper have already expanded to 70-60 yuan/mt, and some brand offers have reached a discount of 80-70 yuan/mt. On the demand side, SMM understands that after the recent continuous decline in copper prices, some processing enterprises have reported moderate orders, and their dip-buying willingness has strengthened. However, market performance shows that suppliers had to lower their offers several times before transactions were concluded, indicating that downstream players are still mainly pushing for lower prices with limited willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers' offloading pressure and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow, with the discount likely to widen slightly.

[SMM Daily Review: Precious Metals Under Short-Term Pressure, Spot Premiums Steady Amid Thin Trading] SMM, June 23: Rising interest rate hike expectations coupled with a stronger US dollar are putting pressure on precious metals in the short term. Spot consumption is weak, and transactions are stable at low premiums.