According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US non-farm payrolls increased significantly by 178,000 in March, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000 and reaching the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in March also edged down to 4.3%, compared with market expectations for it to remain unchanged at 4.4%. In addition, non-farm payrolls for January and February were revised down by a combined 7,000. Data from CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the US Fed keeping policy unchanged within the year had exceeded 90%.

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

[SMM Nickel Flash News] Based on the cash cost of high-grade NPI calculated using nickel ore prices from 25 days earlier, profits at high-grade NPI smelters came under pressure during the week, with the sector as a whole remaining in a state of losses or marginal profitability. It is expected that next week, prices of auxiliary materials on the raw material side may remain flat, while the decline in nickel ore prices will likely be limited. High-grade NPI prices will still be under pressure amid back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, and smelter profits will be unlikely to see any significant improvement.

[SMM Nickel Flash] This week, the price center of refined nickel moved lower, while high-grade NPI prices remained stable. The average discount of high-grade NPI against refined nickel narrowed to 262.4 yuan/nickel unit. High-grade NPI prices were expected to remain under pressure next week, while refined nickel prices were expected to continue their downward trend. The average discount of high-grade NPI against refined nickel was expected to continue narrowing, and the driver for conversion of NPI to high-grade nickel matte weakened.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average SMM price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,082.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of Indonesia's NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.02/nickel unit to $136.58/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market generally remained stable, and after the transaction center stabilized, the market entered a state of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, with prices under pressure in the short term.

Supply glut, cautious demand, and fading cost support drag the benchmark contract down RMB 205/mt in the week of March 30 – April

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

Today, Dalian iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand, and transactions in the spot market tended to be mediocre. This week, total inventory at 35 main ports fell by 300,000 mt WoW to 155.48 million mt; over the same period, daily average port pick-up volume is expected to increase by 3 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW. As steel mills gradually resumed blast furnace production, hot metal production rose steadily, effectively supporting rigid demand for iron ore. From a macro perspective, growing expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will become prolonged meant that energy prices hovering at highs will provide some cost support for iron ore. However, continued compression in steel mill profits and weak willingness to transact restrained upside room for iron ore prices. On balance, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, April 3: LME lead opened at $1,904.5/mt this week. At the beginning of the week, amid disruptions from geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar, LME lead swung wildly within the range of $1,892.5-1,917/mt, hitting a low of $1,892.5/mt during the period. Mid-week, the market expected geopolitical tensions to ease, and coupled with support from the non-ferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated upward and climbed to a high of $1,944/mt. Toward the end of the week, geopolitical tensions flared up again, and together with profit-taking by bulls, LME lead retreated from highs and consolidated. Supported by the strength of SHFE lead, its losses narrowed, and it finally closed at $1,934.5/mt, up $31.5 from the beginning of the week, or 1.66%. The market was closed on Friday for Good Friday. The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,535 yuan/mt this week. In early trading, lead prices edged down and fell to a low of 16,415 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the range of 16,430-16,530 yuan/mt. Mid-week, bullish funds pushed lead prices higher and kept them hovering at highs, with prices touching a high of 16,810 yuan/mt by the close. It finally closed at 16,785 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan WoW, or 1.39%. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices