Vietnam is moving toward establishing a national gold trading platform, transitioning from traditional gold shops to a centralized, digital, account-based system. The initiative aims to mobilize idle gold resources, improve market transparency, and reduce pressure on foreign exchange management. The Prime Minister has requested relevant ministries and agencies to urgently develop the exchange and target its operation before February 10, 2026; however, the project is still under review.

Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261

Hong Kong is accelerating its drive to become a global gold trading hub, in a move that supports China’s broader ambition to strengthen its influence over international bullion markets amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and record-high prices.

On February 25, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary announced measures to develop Hong Kong as a gold trading hub. Following a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the upcoming 2026 launch of the Hong Kong Gold Central Clearing System, the government will pursue three initiatives: offering tax incentives for eligible gold trading and settlement institutions; supporting the establishment of an industry association to consolidate resources, enhance market promotion, and expand networks; and creating a training framework to equip professionals with updated market knowledge and skills.

In May, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, but the pace of increase slowed further, while foreign exchange reserves rose steadily. According to data released by the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Saturday, China's gold reserves stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 mt) at the end of May, up 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 mt) MoM. This marked the seventh consecutive month of gold reserve increases. For comparison, the increase was 70,000 ounces in April and 90,000 ounces in March, indicating a further slowdown in the pace of increase in May. Regarding gold prices, spot gold fell more than 1.2% on Friday, the non-farm payrolls day, closing at $3,311.86 per ounce. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities believes that the world is currently in a period of comprehensive restructuring across multiple dimensions, including technology, military affairs, and wealth, and various uncertainties may persist globally in the future. Therefore, gold trading may not have ended yet. Gold not only has room for absolute price increases but can also reduce the volatility of asset portfolios, making it an important asset for allocation. Meanwhile, statistics from the SAFE showed that as of the end of May 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,285.3 billion, up $3.6 billion from the end of April, representing a 0.11% increase. The growth rate also slowed. The SAFE stated that in May 2025, influenced by factors such as the fiscal policies, monetary policies, and economic growth prospects of major economies, the US dollar index fluctuated slightly, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. Factors such as exchange rate conversion and changes in asset prices collectively contributed to the rise in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy continued to rebound and improve, with the quality of economic development steadily rising, providing support for the basic stability of foreign exchange reserves.

Zhaoyuan in Shandong Province, China's county with the highest "gold content," saw its total output value of the gold industry exceed 100 billion yuan last year, ranking first among all county-level cities nationwide. The region has established an entire gold industry chain, spanning from upstream exploration and mining, midstream smelting and processing, to downstream design and retailing. Amidst the current scenario where gold prices have repeatedly hit new historical highs, the city exudes an air of opulence. Recently, a reporter from Cailian Press visited this small city and engaged in discussions with numerous individuals involved in the local gold industry chain to understand their perspectives on gold price trends, the situation of upstream reserve and production increases, the recent developments in midstream smelting and processing, as well as the new trends emerging in the "time-honored" downstream gold jewelry sector. Upstream: Reserve and Production Increases in Progress The Jiaodong region, where Zhaoyuan is located, is China's largest gold ore concentration area, with proven gold resources exceeding 5,800 mt, accounting for 35% of the country's total reserves. Notable ore-controlling faults in the region include the Sanshandao Fault, Jiaojia Fault, Zhaoping Fault, and Jinniushan Fault. Among them, Zhaoyuan's gold resources are mainly distributed within the fault structures of the Zhaoping Fault Zone, with the Linglong ore field in the north being a world-class ore field with reserves exceeding 1,000 mt. Currently, Zhaoyuan boasts two gold mines under active exploitation that rank among China's top ten gold mines. One of them, the Linglong Gold Mine, belongs to Shandong Gold Group, while the other, the Xiadian Gold Mine, belongs to Zhaojin Group. In addition, enterprises such as China National Gold Group Corporation and Jindu State Investment also possess abundant resources in the local area. With the soaring international gold prices—which surged by 26.8% throughout last year and even exceeded $3,500 per ounce at one point this year—the topic of gold prices has begun to attract increasing discussions. Industry insiders in Zhaoyuan told Cailian Press, "The pricing mechanism of gold is based on credit, influenced by supply and demand dynamics, and underpinned by mining costs. From a medium and long-term perspective, the upward trend is evident." The sustained increase in gold prices has profound implications for gold mining enterprises. On one hand, the production cost per gram of gold for major domestic publicly listed gold firms mostly fell within the 200-300 yuan range last year, and the rise in gold prices directly boosted their profits. On the other hand, the increase in gold prices has made it economically viable to mine ore deposits with lower grades or higher costs, leading to significant reserve and production increases for gold mining enterprises. According to the 2025 Zhaoyuan Government Work Report, key local enterprises in Zhaoyuan "achieved remarkable results in reserve and production increases last year," implementing a total of 17 in-region exploration projects and 2 out-of-region M&A projects. The annual new gold reserves reached 178.2 mt, and self-produced gold output amounted to 28.1 mt, representing increases of 10.5% and 16.1%, respectively. The local target for 2025 is to strive for gold production to exceed 31.25 mt and to increase proven reserves by 33.3 mt. Midstream: Gold Bars in Undersupply Zhaoyuan is not only rich in gold ore resources but also serves as the country's largest base for gold intensive and deep processing. Zhaojin Refining, a subsidiary of Zhaojin Group, is the leading enterprise in the local deep-processing industry chain. It holds certifications from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and London Bullion Market Association as a "qualified refiner capable of producing standard gold and silver ingots." With an annual refining capacity of 200 mt of gold and 1,000 mt of silver, it ranks first in the industry in terms of gold refining production. Local industry insiders told Cailian Press that gold refining has become fully marketized, with thin profit margins. Core competitiveness depends on production and management efficiency. However, as gold prices doubled over the past two years, processing fees also rose significantly, leading to a substantial improvement in profitability and keeping the entire industry at a high prosperity level this year. Additionally, Zhaojin Refining collaborates extensively with major domestic banks in the field of gold deep-processing, offering comprehensive services including design, processing, distribution, repurchase, customization, and warehousing logistics for precious metal products. Since last year, there has been an "explosive" surge in public demand for investment gold bars, with orders pouring in continuously. Zhaojin Refining's gold bar production workshop once had its production schedule booked a month in advance, forcing workers to work overtime. Due to its heavy involvement in physical gold trading, upstream and midstream gold mining companies need to use "futures + options" combinations for risk hedging and price protection to mitigate market risks caused by gold price fluctuations. Seizing this opportunity, Zhaojin Group entered the futures market, and its subsidiary Shandong Zhaojin Investment Co., Ltd. became one of the largest gold traders on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, consistently ranking among the top three comprehensive members. This serves as a model for the integration of industry and finance in the gold sector. Downstream: Repositioning of Gold Jewelry The rapid rise in gold prices has not been universally welcomed in the gold industry chain, with some benefiting while others suffer—particularly downstream gold jewelry retailers. This is because when gold prices rise from low levels, the increase stimulates jewelry consumption. However, once prices reach a psychological high, further increases tend to suppress jewelry demand. Consequently, since H2 last year, typical gold jewelry stocks such as Lao Feng Xiang, Caibai Co., Ltd., and China Gold have generally faced declining performance and stock prices, starkly contrasting with the continuous climb in gold prices. However, against the backdrop of persistently high gold prices, will gold jewelry consumption inevitably continue to shrink? In Zhaoyuan, industry insiders hold differing views. "If you look at the three newly emerging jewelry brands—Laopu, Linchao, and Junpei—they remain completely unaffected by the surge in gold prices." The professional attributes this to the core strategy of brands like Laopu, which emphasize ancient-style gold jewelry with a focus on design, craftsmanship, and artistic value. These brands align with the current trend of Chinese aesthetic revival and psychologically "capture" consumers, making them view their purchases as luxury or collectible items, thereby desensitizing them to the relationship between product pricing and real-time gold prices. "This brings us a profound insight: the competition in the gold jewelry industry is increasingly focused on product strength and design. The new generation of consumers, including young people, place greater emphasis on the self-pleasing and collectible attributes of gold jewelry. Only by continuously exerting efforts in this dimension can we break through in an environment of high gold prices." Currently, Zhaojin Group is focusing on building its brand "Zhaojin Silver House" (formerly known as Zhaoyuan Silver Workshop, established in 1908). It has launched product series such as "Contemporary Treasure" and "Dunhuang Splendid Ornaments," attempting to secure a place in the fiercely competitive gold retail market through innovative designs that integrate traditional culture. In Zhaoyuan, beyond the traditional business models of gold mining, smelting, and retail, efforts are being made to explore more economic growth points centered around gold themes. Today, Zhaoyuan is promoting the deep integration of "gold + culture + tourism" offline, attempting to leverage the Gold Town to delve into the millennium-old gold culture and experience the intangible cultural heritage of the Song Dynasty. It is constructing a new pattern of integrated development of industry, culture, and tourism that encompasses "mining gold, making gold, playing with gold, buying gold, and exchanging gold," further cultivating a characteristic cultural tourism IP of "China's Gold Capital." Locals in Zhaoyuan say that the charm of gold lies in its heritage from antiquity, yet it always manages to remain fresh and relevant.

As US President Trump wielded the "tariff stick" indiscriminately and economic and geopolitical uncertainties continued to disrupt the market, an interesting phenomenon emerged: super-rich individuals were increasingly turning their attention to the safer option of physical gold, transferring it overseas, with Singapore emerging as a popular destination. The reason is simple: Singapore is home to "The Reserve," a colossal vault standing at 32 meters tall. According to Gregor Gregersen, the founder of "The Reserve," from the beginning of this year until April, the precious metals storage facility received 88% more orders for gold and silver compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, data provided by the company also showed that sales of gold and silver bars soared by 200% YoY during the same period. Industry observers believe that this trend is driven by growing unease. Gregersen stated, "Many very high-net-worth clients are concerned about tariffs, changes in the world, and the possibility of geopolitical instability. Today, storing physical metals in a safe jurisdiction like Singapore is becoming a major trend." He added that 90% of the new orders came from outside Singapore. It is understood that "The Reserve" spans 180,000 square feet, boasting not only a vast scale but also integrating high-tech security systems, capable of accommodating a vast quantity of precious metals, including 10,000 mt of silver and 500 mt of gold. Some commentators have noted that the storage capacity of this six-story vault is impressive enough to shake the entire financial world. Physical Gold Becomes a "Hot Commodity" In recent months, due to geopolitical tensions, gold prices have surged rapidly, hitting record highs. Although they have pulled back somewhat after the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, some market observers still believe that gold prices could climb to $5,000 per ounce next year. Gregersen said that wealthy individuals are increasingly choosing physical gold bars over "paper gold trading" because they do not want to bear significant price risks. While storing and holding physical gold is not entirely free from price risks, it limits certain risks associated with "paper gold." Jonathan Rose, CEO of Genesis Gold Group, a gold dealer, said that an increasing number of clients investing in gold are requesting to have physical gold delivered to them. He estimated that the proportion of clients insisting on holding physical gold has surged from 20% in past years to 70%. Analysts point out that physical gold has unique advantages compared to other investment options. It has no counterparty risk, allowing investors to directly own and control their gold assets. Additionally, physical gold offers a high degree of privacy, meeting the wealth protection needs of high-net-worth individuals. Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP, a precious metals refining and trading company, stated that the Silicon Valley Bank crisis that erupted in 2023 also prompted investors to prefer physical ownership or safe allocation of specific gold bars, rather than relying on paper claims or merely holding shares in a pooled reserve—shares that could be at risk if the bank fails. John Reade, Chief Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, similarly pointed out that this is particularly true for those concerned about the health of the global financial system. "Some holders of physical precious metals are cautious about storing gold within the banking system, even in allocated form, and therefore prefer to store it with entities outside the banking system," he added.

On the morning of May 12, after China announced that the China-US meeting had reached "important consensus," spot gold prices fell to $3,260 per ounce, dropping over 2% intraday. In stark contrast, following the recent clashes between Pakistan and India in the Kashmir region, COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3,333 per ounce on May 10, with a cumulative increase of 2.8% for the week. On the afternoon of May 9, spot gold prices even surged to $3,338 per ounce. As May progresses, the fluctuating trend of international gold prices at high levels seems to have become the norm. In the view of industry insiders, considering the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disputes, the recent volatility in gold prices is understandable, and investors, especially futures investors, need to enhance their risk awareness. Cailian Press reporters noted that as the primary channel for ordinary people to participate in gold investment, several national commercial banks, including China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and China Everbright Bank, have continued to issue announcements recently, raising the minimum subscription amount for gold accumulation plans and explicitly warning that "investment involves risks." Several industry insiders told Cailian Press reporters that, objectively speaking, drawing lessons from past incidents like the crude oil treasure and paper gold events, banks do not hope for sharp fluctuations in gold prices, especially for gold accumulation plans. Unexpected volatility in international gold prices is intensifying. A macro analyst from a securities firm who has long tracked gold trends told Cailian Press reporters that the surge in international gold prices this year has exceeded the estimates of many industry insiders. According to the research of his institution, a price of $3,000 per ounce is already a reasonable range considering supply and demand factors. However, gold prices have continued to hit new highs since then, primarily due to the "butterfly effect" triggered by Trump's tariff disputes, which led to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into the gold market, coupled with speculation, resulting in mixed performance and fluctuating trends in gold prices recently. On May 11, a report released by Guosheng Securities analysts Zhang Hang, Chu Jinna, and He Chengyang pointed out that bullish and bearish factors intertwined over the past week, leading to increased volatility in gold prices. On May 7, data from the official website of the People's Bank of China showed that China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces MoM at the end of April, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases. The average/highest/lowest prices of COMEX gold in April were $3,236, $3,510, and $2,970 per ounce, respectively, which may serve as reference support levels for future gold price movements. "Geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and tariff disputes are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term. Overall, gold prices are expected to remain volatile this year, and investors need to enhance their risk prevention awareness."The analysts held the above views. Multiple banks have intensively issued risk warnings, with the minimum purchase amount for individual clients' gold accumulation raised to 1,000 yuan. Although banks objectively benefited from the strong gold prices last year, many have recently issued announcements to increase the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation and issue risk warnings. The latest case is that on May 9, China Construction Bank stated on its official website that the recent intensified fluctuations in domestic and overseas precious metal prices have increased market risks. Clients are advised to enhance risk awareness in precious metal business, reasonably control positions, promptly monitor open interest and margin balance changes, and invest rationally. Additionally, to strengthen business risk management, China Construction Bank has raised the minimum amount for regular gold accumulation (including daily average and self-selected day accumulation) from 800 yuan to 1,000 yuan starting from 9:10 on May 6. Besides CCB, other national commercial banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and China Everbright Bank have also issued announcements to increase the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation and explicitly warned that "investment carries risks." Among them, China Merchants Bank has raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation four times this year, directly increasing it from 750 yuan to 1,000 yuan. According to information from major banks' official websites, the threshold for ordinary people to purchase gold accumulation has now been raised to 1,000 yuan. Several industry insiders told Caixin reporters that, objectively speaking, referring to past incidents like the crude oil and paper gold events, banks do not want to see sharp fluctuations in gold prices, especially in gold accumulation business. An insider from a listed bank in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai told Caixin reporters that after the bank raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation, the number of subscribing clients did not increase. This means that if the purchase threshold is repeatedly raised, banks' fee income will decrease instead. "Overall, currently, banks mainly play the role of channels and intermediary platforms in the gold trading market, and everyone hopes to steadily collect fees from it," the above-mentioned bank insider in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai admitted. From the perspective of risk avoidance, many banks currently do not invest much in their proprietary gold business (derivative trading). This phenomenon may be difficult to change in the short term. Benefiting from the 'crazy gold,' many banks had a good harvest in their gold business last year. Caixin reporters noted that in the past week, many banks have become the focus of public opinion due to their gold business. For example, a netizen revealed on social media that a friend purchased gold bars at a branch of ICBC in Shanghai, and the melted substance was suspected not to be pure gold.The topic "Buying adulterated gold bars from banks" thus trended on Weibo. However, on the evening of May 9, the ICBC Jiading Sub-branch in Shanghai responded that, after verification, the situation was untrue. Detection reports for the two types of gold bars both recorded a detection conclusion: the gold content was 99.99%, with no quality issues. So, apart from selling gold bars and gold ingots, what are the other mainstream gold businesses currently offered by banks? An insider from a joint-stock bank told a reporter from Caixin that, in addition to physical gold businesses, many banks currently offer common services including gold accumulation plans, wealth management products linked to gold, precious metal financing leasing, and precious metal futures/options derivatives trading, among others. After some insurance institutions were recently approved to enter the gold trading market, "another trading channel has been added." Yu Zhi, a researcher at Use Trust, previously told a reporter from Caixin that gold-linked wealth management products fall within the extended scope of fixed-income+ products, but the number of such products issued is not large. "The gold market business is an important part of a bank's intermediate income business. Banks are an important channel for investors to trade gold ETFs. Last year, with the sharp rise in gold prices, banks' intermediate income also benefited significantly," the aforementioned macro analyst pointed out. After the paper gold business was suspended, influenced by the current strong cycle of gold, banks' related businesses have also picked up recently. A Caixin reporter noted that, judging from the annual reports of some banks, the gold business has indeed become one of the highlights of last year. For example, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) annual report disclosed that, as of the end of 2024, on ICBC's balance sheet, the bank's precious metal assets were 172.144 billion yuan, compared to only 114.928 billion yuan in 2023; the group's precious metal assets were 208.242 billion yuan, compared to 139.425 billion yuan in 2023. This means that ICBC and its subsidiaries saw significant growth in their gold businesses last year. In addition, the Agricultural Bank of China's annual report also pointed out that, as of the end of 2024, the bank's direct and agency gold trading volume was 5,992.28 mt. The bank's physical precious metal sales in 2024 were 26.671 billion yuan, a 68.5% increase from the previous year. The Postal Savings Bank of China's annual report also disclosed that, in 2024, the bank's precious metal business trading volume increased by 136.47% YoY, and revenue increased by 105.51% YoY. The Industrial Bank's annual report also disclosed that, last year, the bank effectively capitalized on the fluctuations in the gold market to achieve rapid growth in precious metal business volume and revenue, with revenue increasing by 100% YoY during the reporting period.

Recently, the eighth event of the "Lujiazui Financial Salon" concluded successfully in Lujiazui, Pudong, Shanghai. This session focused on the theme of "Investment Strategies in the Gold Market and Enhancing the Pricing Power of RMB-Denominated Gold: Opportunities and Challenges in the Global Landscape." Zhu Shanying, a senior researcher from the Macro Research Team at CITIC Futures Research Institute, shared insights into the evolving pricing logic of the gold market. She pointed out that gold prices have increasingly returned to a broad paradigm of being priced based on their monetary attributes. Zhu Shanying first shared some interesting changes in the gold pricing framework in the gold market over the past two years. In the decade preceding 2023, global central banks generally entered a phase of liquidity tightening, tightening monetary policy through measures such as balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes. During this period, the creditworthiness of paper currencies, represented by the US dollar, remained relatively stable, and the allocation logic of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset dominated the market. The market often studied gold prices with reference to the US real interest rate, showing a strong negative correlation. However, after 2023, there have been instances where gold prices have moved in tandem with the US real interest rate and the US dollar index, with gold prices increasingly returning to a broad paradigm of being priced based on their monetary attributes. Discussing the trading logic of gold since last year, Zhu Shanying noted that after 2024, the upward slope of gold prices has become steeper, and the trading themes for gold have varied at each stage throughout the year. For example, from March to May last year, the core trading theme in the market was secondary inflation. From July to August, trading was more centered around expectations of a US recession. From September to January, trading was focused on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. In the first quarter of this year, after Trump took office, market demand for safe-haven assets, including expectations of subsequent US stagflation, became the main trading logic driving the sustained strength of gold prices. Looking ahead, Zhu Shanying believes that from the perspective of a short-term cycle, amidst the escalating Sino-US tariff disputes, expectations of US stagflation continue to strengthen. If the US Fed does not fully shift to an interest rate hiking cycle, it will be difficult to reverse the stagflationary environment. From a longer-term perspective, whether it is the reality of excessive US national debt issuance, the intensification of the deglobalization trend, or changes in the competitive landscape between China and the US in the technology sector, all constitute the core logic for the long-term contraction of US dollar creditworthiness. Gold remains in a long-term bull market. During an industry dialogue titled "From Improving Asset Allocation to Enhancing Pricing Power: Prospects for the Development of the Gold Trading Market," Zhu Shanying stated that gold is highly suitable as a long-term investment asset. Assuming one bought and held gold since 1971, when it first moved towards free pricing, the annualized compound return over more than 50 years has been 8%, and the return over the past 20 years has been 9%, which is quite impressive. In the past two years, gold has entered a phase of accelerated appreciation. The US may be heading towards stagflation, trade disputes have become more intense, and the US Fed has adopted a more cautious approach to monetary policy. It cannot be ruled out that the US may transition from its current stagflationary environment to a recession, further highlighting the importance of gold allocation.

This week, international gold prices were highly volatile, once breaking through $3,500 per ounce, setting a new historical high. The prices of jewelry gold from multiple brands also rose to over 1,000 yuan per gram. With gold prices fluctuating at highs, how are the sales at offline gold stores? Recently, CCTV reporters visited multiple gold stores across the country. Gold Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Jewelry Gold Trade-In Favored Consumer Mr. Zhao: The holiday is approaching, and I have some unused old gold. I want to exchange it for a gold bracelet for my family. During the visit, reporters found that there are quite a few people like Mr. Zhao who exchange old gold for new jewelry. Consumer Ms. Shi: My birthday is in a couple of days, and I wanted to take a look. But now that gold prices are high, I want to think about it more, or bring my old gold to exchange. Several managers of offline gold stores told reporters that under high gold prices, except for a small number of customers with urgent needs, most customers have more concerns and a stronger wait-and-see sentiment when purchasing gold jewelry. In contrast, customers are more willing to accept trade-in by paying the price difference. Li Yan, Manager of a Gold Store: As gold prices rise, costs increase, and customers' desire to purchase decreases. So customers are also more inclined to trade-in, accounting for more than 80%, paying a little processing fee for the trade-in. Industry insiders told reporters that besides trade-in, the high gold prices have also pushed consumers from jewelry gold to investment gold with financial attributes. Li Shanshan, Manager of a Gold Store: Investment and financial attribute gold, gold bars, including gold beans favored by young people, the sales of these financial attribute products have surged. Experts Warn: "Gold Speculation" with Credit Cards Is High-Risk and Potentially Illegal With gold prices fluctuating at highs, gold investment continues to heat up. Some people buy gold with loans or credit card cash advances and even share so-called "strategies" on social media. Multiple banks have issued announcements warning of investment risks and stated strict control over "gold speculation" with credit cards. Experts say that recent high volatility in gold prices, leveraging to chase rising gold prices, carries significant financial risks. Zeng Gang, Director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory: Although gold has hedging and value-preserving attributes, its price fluctuations are also influenced by multiple factors such as international situations and monetary policies, making it difficult to sustain a unilateral rise in the long term. Buying gold with loans is investing with borrowed money. Investors not only face the risk of changes in the principal but also need to bear additional interest expenses and repayment pressure. In addition, experts remind that China has clear requirements for the use of loans and credit card funds, and related funds must not be used for gold investment and other fields. Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of Zhaolian: Applying for consumer loans or using credit card cash advances to invest in gold carries compliance risks. Once discovered by financial institutions, the related funds may be required to be repaid in advance, credit card limits may be reduced or suspended, and related behaviors may be included in the credit system.