28 Apr 2026, 05:00 AM Gold steadies as traders await Iran talks and key central bank cues. Firmer dollar and higher oil prices limit bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Fed outlook and Hormuz risks keep gold locked in a narrow range. Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains, as investors weighed uncertain US-Iran diplomacy and a heavy week of central bank decisions against the pressure of a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices. Bullion found some support from persistent geopolitical risk, but that was offset by caution over the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold was broadly steady at $4,679.06 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $4,693.20. The market tone suggested investors were reluctant to build large positions before clearer signals emerged from Washington, Tehran and the world’s major central banks. US dollar and oil curb demand The immediate drag on gold came from currency and energy markets. The dollar strengthened as traders turned defensive after hopes for a quick breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations faded, while oil prices rose sharply on concern that tensions in the Middle East could keep supply routes under strain. That combination has proved difficult for bullion. Rising oil prices and a firmer dollar have recently weighed on gold by reinforcing a higher-for-longer view on interest rates and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Gold had already fallen to an over one-week low around $4,697 in recent sessions, highlighting how the rally has lost momentum as yields and the dollar strengthened. Investors who had chased the metal higher earlier in the month are now reassessing whether geopolitical anxiety alone is enough to drive a fresh leg up. For now, the answer appears to be no. So long as oil remains elevated and the dollar stays firm, gold may struggle to break convincingly higher even when demand for safety remains intact. Central banks take centre stage The other major restraint is monetary policy. Investors are awaiting a series of interest-rate decisions and official comments that could help define whether borrowing costs stay restrictive for longer than markets had expected. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the tone of its guidance will matter. A Reuters poll found that the Fed may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy prices feed inflation, reinforcing the view that policy easing could be pushed further out. That matters for gold because higher rates and firmer bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Attention is also on other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. With oil back at the centre of the inflation debate, investors will want to know whether policymakers see the recent energy shock as temporary noise or a more durable threat to price stability. Iran talks remain the key geopolitical driver Developments between Washington and Tehran continue to shape the broader market mood. President Donald Trump was reported to be dissatisfied with Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, raising doubts about the chances of a quick diplomatic resolution. That has kept traders focused on the risk of further disruption across the region, especially around Hormuz, where shipping uncertainty remains a major issue for oil markets. For gold, the geopolitical backdrop is supportive in theory but complicated in practice. Safe-haven demand tends to rise when conflict intensifies, yet the same tensions can also push oil higher, lift inflation expectations and strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated. That is why bullion has stayed range-bound rather than breaking decisively in either direction. The result is a market caught between fear and restraint: enough anxiety to keep gold supported, but not enough to overpower the combined headwinds of a stronger dollar, higher yields and costly energy. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/28/why-are-gold-prices-failing-to-surge-despite-rising-global-uncertainty/

By Zain Vawda 28 April 2026 at 07:18 UTC Referenced assets Gold prices are experiencing a selloff driven by rising oil prices (fueling inflation concerns) and dampened sentiment regarding a potential US-Iran deal Technical analysis indicates an accelerating bearish momentum, with Gold breaking below both the 100-MA and 200-MA on the H4 chart The primary downside target for sellers is the $4601 support level, while a relief rally would face resistance between the $4650 and $4700 zones. Gold prices experienced a selloff in the Asian session as Oil prices continue to rise, stoking inflation concerns. Markets continue to be driven by the potential for a deal between the US and Iran. As the situation is fluid any change in perception around a deal is knocking sentiment. Rumors that President Trump is not happy with the recent proposal submitted by Iran. This has dampened sentiment early on Tuesday and barring any comments is likely to remain the status quo for the European session. H4 Chart: Bearish Momentum Accelerates The H4 timeframe paints a clear picture of a market struggling to find its footing. After failing to sustain a break above the $4800 handle, Gold has plummeted through key support levels. Crucially, the price has slipped below both the 100-MA (Blue) and 200-MA (Orange) . The rejection at the $4700 psychological level earlier in the session acted as the catalyst for the current leg lower. With the RSI currently languishing in oversold territory (near 23), a short-term bounce wouldn't be surprising, but any recovery is likely to meet stiff resistance at the previous breakdown points. Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Lower Highs and Structural Weakness On the H1 chart, the trend is undeniably bearish. We have seen a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The aggressive sell-off during the most recent candles has pushed Gold toward the $4620 area, slicing through minor support zones with ease. The gap between the price and the moving averages on this timeframe suggests the move is slightly overextended. However, the lack of a "bullish divergence" on the RSI indicates that the bears are still firmly in control. The $4601 level (highlighted by the purple horizontal line) stands as the primary target for sellers and the next major "line in the sand" for bulls. Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) M15 Tactical Analysis: Scenarios for the Upcoming Sessions Looking at the intraday price action (M15), we see Gold attempting to stabilize after a vertical drop. Here is how I am framing the upcoming sessions: The Bearish Scenario If Gold fails to reclaim the $4640 - $4650 zone during a relief rally, sellers will likely reload. A break below the recent swing low at $4620 would open the trapdoor for a move toward the $4601 support level. Target: $4,601. Trigger: Rejection of the M15 50-MA or a break of $4,620. The Bullish Scenario For a meaningful intraday recovery, the bulls need to orchestrate a "stop-run" back above $4650 . This would signal a potential "exhaustion gap" and could lead to a squeeze toward the $4680 area (near the H1 MAs). Target: $4,680 - $4,700. Confirmation: A 15-minute close above $4,655 with an RSI move back above 50. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $4650, $4687, $4700. Support: $4620, $4601, $4580. Gold (XAU/USD) M15 Chart, April 28, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) While the long-term trend for Gold has been constructive, the short-term technicals are screaming caution. The decisive break below $4700 has shifted the momentum, and until we see a structural shift on the H1 (a higher high), I remain wary of catching the falling knife. Source： https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/gold-xauusd-selloff-deepens-technical-breakdown-and-rising-oil-prices-accelerates-bearish-momentum/

Although recent conflicts in the Middle East have caused short-term volatility in gold prices, the medium- and long-term outlook remains positive as high geopolitical risks, increasing fiscal deficits, and continued buying by central banks will continue to support the price of the precious metal.

According to Deutsche Bank's analysis, as central banks around the world continue to increase the share of gold in their reserve assets, the precious metal still has room for further gains. Sachdeva, Mallika, a strategist at the bank, noted in a report published on Monday that as monetary policymakers seek tools to hedge against geopolitical turmoil, gold's share in global central bank reserves has risen from about 10% in the 1990s to 30% today. Meanwhile, the US dollar's share in foreign central bank reserves has fallen from over 60% to 40%. Sachdeva said: "The gap between the dollar and gold's share in reserves is now only 10 percentage points, which is extremely noteworthy." The London-based strategist believes that central banks appear to be reversing the 1990s trend, when they shifted asset allocations from gold to the US dollar. Sachdeva also acknowledged that about 80% of the increase in gold's share of central bank reserves was due to the rise in gold prices themselves rather than new purchases. Last year, gold posted its strongest annual gain since 1979 — ironically, the year of the Iranian Revolution. Over the past 12 months, gold prices have risen by more than 40% cumulatively. However, Sachdeva pointed out that central bank purchases still accounted for a significant share of the growth in reserve holdings, and it was often central bank buying that drove gold prices higher. He said: "Therefore, there is an endogenous link between purchases and prices, and the two together have driven the increase in gold's share." Gold has long been regarded by investors as a safe-haven asset during times of global conflict. Since 2022, this attribute has continuously driven investors toward gold — first due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and then the US and Israeli strikes against Iran. The strategist said that the next move in gold prices will partly depend on how much gold and US dollars emerging economy central banks will ultimately hold. Deutsche Bank's analysis of International Monetary Fund (IMF) data showed that since the global financial crisis, all central bank gold purchases have come from emerging market central banks. Sachdeva further stated that even if total foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets decline to $5 trillion, as long as they set a target of 40% for gold's share in their reserves, gold prices could reach $8,000 per ounce over the next five years. This level would be approximately 70% above current gold prices.

China's March silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) imports reached 398.62 mt, up 93% MoM, fulfilling expectations of rising silver ingot imports. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 639.91 mt, surging 5,346% from 11.75 mt in the same period of 2025. Historical Comparison: Similarities and Differences Between Two Import Windows Historically, in 2023, surging PV demand widened silver price spreads in and outside China, and silver imports grew significantly (imports in June 2023 surged 5,329%). The similarity between this round and the historical pattern lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — in 2023, it was driven by the scaled-up commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while in 2026, it was driven by PV export rush stockpiling. Both were underpinned by rigid demand for industrial physical silver. The difference is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and interest rate cut cycles. Retail investment demand exacerbated industrial raw material shortages, and China's spot silver ingot market saw significant premiums, boosting physical import profitability. In addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered China in large volumes as semi-manufactured products, which were then processed into silver ingots for circulation. Drivers of the Import Surge This Round 1. PV Export Rush Stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1. Intermediate processing segments stockpiled large volumes of raw materials in Q1, with certain manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail Investment Demand Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as alternatives to high-priced gold investments. 3. Sustained Arbitrage Window Domestic silver prices, driven by robust demand, were significantly higher than London spot prices. Stable SHFE silver premiums prompted global traders to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Some silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic sales" pathway. Q2 Outlook: Pulse-Like Rally Fades Entering Q2, the explosive import growth is expected to be unsustainable. Although China's silver prices still carried a premium over London, physical demand and spot premiums had shifted, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales in late March. The demand side weakened simultaneously. Both industrial and investment demand in China declined, and the spot market softened further. After the PV export rush ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply; silver prices moving sideways and uncertainty over Middle East conflicts cooled investment enthusiasm, with funds previously flowing into the precious metals market redirected to high-momentum markets such as the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. China's silver ingot market transitioned from "scarce supply" in April to "trading at discounts with no takers," and as month-end approached, suppliers were forced to cut premiums for bulk shipments or transfer inventory to participate in SHFE deliveries. Profit margins were sharply compressed. The spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, import silver ingot profits declined significantly, and the arbitrage window disappeared. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 were a "pulse-like" rally driven by both retail investment fever and PV export rush stockpiling. As both drivers faded simultaneously, combined with assessments of actual trade market orders, imports in April are expected to pull back.

China's imports of silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) reached 398.62 mt in March, up 93% MoM from February, fulfilling expectations that silver ingot imports would maintain their upward momentum. Total silver imports from January to March 2026 reached 639.91 mt, up 5,346% YoY compared with 11.75 mt in Q1 2025. Historically, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in demand from China's PV industry in 2023, the price gap between the Chinese and international silver markets gradually widened, and silver imports also surged significantly. () The similarity between this round of silver ingot import window opening and the historical one lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — 2023 marked the initial large-scale commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while 2026 saw short-term stockpiling demand driven by the PV export rush. Behind both import windows was rigid demand for physical silver in industrial production. The difference, however, is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and the interest rate cut cycle, with retail investment demand further tightening already scarce industrial raw materials. As a result, significant spot premiums emerged in China's spot silver ingot market, boosting profits from physical imports. It is understood that in addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered the Chinese market in large quantities as semi-manufactured products for further processing into silver ingots and market circulation. Specifically, the driving factors behind this round of import surge were: 1. PV industry export rush stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1, leading to massive raw material stockpiling by midstream processing firms in Q1, with some individual manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail investment demand: Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as an alternative to high-priced gold. 3. Sustained arbitrage window Driven by robust demand, Chinese silver prices were significantly higher than London spot prices. With stable SHFE silver premiums, global traders were incentivized to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Even silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic-sales" pathway. Q2 outlook: Entering Q2, the explosive growth in silver ingot imports is unlikely to sustain. Although Chinese silver ingots still carry a premium over London prices, demand for physical silver ingots and spot premiums have changed, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales since late March. On one hand, domestic industrial and investment demand declined simultaneously, and the spot market weakened further. After the PV export rush orders ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply. Additionally, as silver prices moved sideways and uncertainties from Middle East conflicts dampened precious metals investment sentiment, funds that had previously flowed into the precious metals market shifted back to high-momentum markets such as US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. Chinese silver ingots gradually transitioned from "hard to find" in April to "trading at discounts with no buyers." Approaching month-end, suppliers began lowering premiums to offload inventory or transfer stock for SHFE delivery. On the other hand, import profit margins were significantly compressed, mainly because spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers even sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, causing import silver ingot profits to decline sharply and the arbitrage window to close. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 this year were a "pulse-like" event driven by both retail investment enthusiasm and PV stockpiling rush. As both driving factors fade simultaneously, combined with an assessment of actual import order performance in the trade market, imports in April are expected to pull back.

The gold price edged lower at the start of trading on Tuesday, slipping below the $4,800 mark. Despite the recent decline in oil prices, the precious metal’s upside potential remains limited by persistent inflationary pressure, which continues to support the US dollar and keep US Treasury yields elevated.

Benefiting from both rising gold prices and increasing volumes, Zijin Mining delivered a stellar report card. In Q1, the company achieved revenue of 98.5 billion yuan, up 24.79% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 20.1 billion yuan, surging 97.50% YoY, nearly doubling; total profit soared 115% YoY to 31.6 billion yuan, with all core financial metrics hitting record highs across the board. The underlying logic behind the accelerating profitability was clearly identifiable: the historic breakthrough in gold prices served as the most direct catalyst. The unit price of gold ingots jumped from 661.83 yuan/g in the same period last year to 1,089.04 yuan/g, a gain of over 64%, and the gross margin of mine-produced gold expanded from 52.91% to 69.60%; silver prices also surged in tandem, soaring from 5.50 yuan/g to 15.33 yuan/g, with the gross margin of mine-produced silver leaping to a remarkable 85.59%. The company's overall mine enterprise gross margin rose from 59.94% to 71.01%, and the comprehensive gross margin also climbed from 22.89% to 36.33%, with the price dividend fully realized. Meanwhile, the rise of the lithium segment was reshaping the company's profit structure. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt in Q1, compared to only 1,376 mt in the same period last year, up over 10 times YoY, with an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin as high as 61.44%. The company expects full-year 2026 lithium carbonate production to reach 120,000 mt, and plans to increase it to 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will rank among the world's largest lithium ore producers. The lithium business is evolving from a marginal increment to a core profit engine. Gold Prices Exceeded Expectations, with the Gold Segment Contributing Core Profits Gold was the largest engine of profit growth this quarter. The company's mines produced 23,497 kg of gold, up 23% YoY, benefiting not only from volume growth but also from a price tailwind. The average price of gold ingots reached 1,089.04 yuan/g, and the average price of gold concentrates reached 1,010.55 yuan/g, up approximately 65% and 64% YoY, respectively. The sources of incremental growth also warranted attention. Zijin Gold International's newly acquired Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and Ridgold Polymetallic Mine in Kazakhstan, acquired in 2025, had begun contributing production, with the benefits of external M&A gradually being released. Under the resonance of high gold prices and volume growth, the gross margin of mine-produced gold business surged significantly: the gold ingot gross margin rose from 52.91% to 69.60%, and the gold concentrates gross margin climbed from 71.05% to 80.89%, delivering a notable boost to overall profits. Copper: Kamoa-Kakula Production Cuts Dragged Down Output, While Other Mines Advanced Steadily The copper segment produced 259,214 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1, down from 287,571 mt in the same period last year, primarily due to a sharp decline in equity production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine — plunging from 59,163 mt in the same period last year to 27,361 mt, a drop of over 50%. Excluding this disruption, the company's other copper mines all advanced in an orderly manner as planned. Of particular note was the Julong Copper Mine Phase II, which was officially commissioned in late January 2026 and contributed 60,000 mt of mine-produced copper in Q1. The capacity was still in the ramp-up stage, with further incremental output expected going forward. Rising copper prices also effectively offset the volume pressure. The average price of copper concentrates rose from 60,179 yuan/mt to 81,543 yuan/mt, with the gross margin further improving from 65.05% to 70.84%; the gross margins of electrodeposition copper and copper cathode also expanded to 61.61% and 56.20%, respectively. The smelting copper business had a gross margin of only 0.32% due to thin processing profits, but scale effects still enabled it to contribute a considerable absolute profit amount. Lithium Segment: A Leap from Zero to One, Targeting the World's Largest by 2028 The lithium business was the segment with the most dramatic changes in this quarterly report. Lithium carbonate equivalent production reached 16,229 mt (with Q1 sales of 13,329 mt), achieving an order-of-magnitude expansion from the base of 1,376 mt in the same period last year, driven by the capacity ramp-up following the successive commissioning of multiple projects including the 3Q Salt Lake lithium mine, the Lagocuo Salt Lake lithium mine, and the Xiangyuan hard-rock lithium mine. Profitability was equally impressive — lithium carbonate had an average selling price of 101,456 yuan/mt and a gross margin of 61.44%, second only to silver and ranking as the second highest among all products, reflecting the inherent cost advantages of salt lake lithium resources. In stark contrast, the lithium carbonate gross margin in Q4 last year was only 24.59%, surging nearly 37 percentage points within just one quarter, benefiting from both improved product mix and a cyclical recovery in lithium prices. Of greater strategic significance was the long-term plan: the main mining and processing workflow of the Manono lithium mine northeast project had been fully connected, and is expected to be completed and commissioned in June this year; the company plans to achieve lithium carbonate equivalent production of 270,000–320,000 mt by 2028, at which point it will become one of the world's largest lithium ore producers. Management has explicitly positioned the lithium segment as the "third pillar" core profit source after copper and gold. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: Ample Ammunition, Strong Foundation for Expansion Financial structure side, total assets reached 549.9 billion yuan at the end of Q1, up 7.41% from the beginning of the year; the cash and bank balance was 99.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 33.8 billion yuan from 65.6 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 90.3 billion yuan at period-end. The ample cash reserves provided sufficient ammunition for the company to pursue global mine M&A opportunities and fund capital expenditures on projects under construction. Net assets side, equity attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reached 200.4 billion yuan, up 8.02% from the beginning of the year; the weighted average return on equity (ROE) reached 10.35%, up 3.23 percentage points from 7.12% in the same period last year, with capital return efficiency continuing to improve. The liability side saw some expansion, with short-term borrowings increasing from 32.3 billion yuan to 41.2 billion yuan, bonds payable rising from 47.4 billion yuan to 56.3 billion yuan, and total liabilities amounting to 282.5 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 21.5 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, primarily to support project construction and capacity expansion. Although the absolute scale of debt rose, the company's debt-servicing capacity was not under pressure given the significant improvement in operating cash flow, with the asset-liability ratio at approximately 51.4%, remaining well under control overall.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

Gold prices extended their gains further on Friday, primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and a statement from Iran's foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during the ceasefire. This news pushed oil prices lower and eased some market concerns about inflation. During Friday's US trading session, spot gold rose nearly 2%, briefly approaching $4,900. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted that vessels passing through the strait would follow coordinated routes already published by Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization. US President Trump said he believed a deal to end the Iran war would be reached "soon," although the specific timetable remained unknown. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said: "The reopening of the strait is a pivotal event. With oil prices under pressure, this is expected to ease inflation concerns and reignite expectations for interest rate cuts — all of which is genuinely positive news for gold." He added that gold prices could return above $5,000 per ounce in the near term . Following the comments about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar and oil prices extended their declines. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The move also boosted market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut before the end of the year. Traders currently see roughly a 60% probability that the US Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate before December. Gold prices had briefly declined after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, as surging energy prices intensified inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts. Since gold itself generates no interest, it typically loses some of its appeal when borrowing costs stay high. Meanwhile, according to trade sources, Indian banks have suspended placing gold and silver orders with ex-China suppliers as the government has yet to issue official documents authorizing imports, leaving several metric tons of precious metals stranded at customs.