July 31, 2026 Whenever economic growth begins to weaken, many investors instinctively turn their attention to gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets. Yet reality is more complex than the familiar "safe haven" narrative. While both precious metals tend to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty over the long term, they often follow very different patterns during recessions. Investors who understand these differences can position their portfolios more effectively. Paradoxically, the prices of both gold—and especially silver—often decline during the initial stages of a severe crisis. This is not because investors suddenly lose confidence in precious metals, but because individuals and institutions urgently need liquidity. In times of market stress, investors frequently sell their most liquid assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls or raise cash. History Shows That Liquidity Comes First During the Initial Phase of a Crisis The global financial crisis of 2008 provides a clear example. As the crisis intensified, the gold price fell from nearly US$1,000 to around US$700 per ounce before recovering by year-end and eventually reaching new all-time highs. Silver suffered a much sharper decline, dropping from approximately US$21 to below US$9 per ounce, a decline of more than 50%, while gold lost only about 12% during the same period. A similar pattern emerged during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Both precious metals initially declined sharply, but silver once again proved considerably more volatile, falling from around US$18 to US$12 per ounce within just a few weeks. Gold also weakened but experienced a much more moderate correction. History repeatedly demonstrates that the urgent need for liquidity can temporarily drive down the prices of both gold and silver. Yet it also shows that investors who panic and sell during these periods often miss the powerful recovery that typically follows. Once the Recovery Begins, Silver Historically Outperforms Gold This is where the second—and perhaps most important—historical pattern emerges. During the recovery phase following a recession, silver has historically outperformed gold by a considerable margin. Following the 2008 financial crisis, silver gained approximately 400% from its lows, while gold appreciated by roughly 170%. This outperformance generally begins once the urgent need for liquidity subsides and investors return to risk assets. The same phenomenon occurred after the initial COVID-19 market shock. During 2020, silver advanced by nearly 48%, while gold gained approximately 25%. One of the primary reasons for silver's stronger performance is its dual role. Gold functions primarily as a monetary asset and store of value. Silver, by contrast, combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand. As economic conditions improve, both sources of demand recover simultaneously, providing additional support for silver prices. Why Gold Performs Well During Recessions Gold benefits from several supportive factors during economic downturns. Central banks typically lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic activity, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. At the same time, demand increases for assets without counterparty risk, particularly as confidence in equities, bonds, and sometimes even financial institutions begins to deteriorate. A review of six major U.S. recessions shows that gold prices increased during five of those downturns, declining only modestly during the 1990–1991 recession. There is, however, an important exception. If central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation—as they did in the early 1980s, when U.S. interest rates reached nearly 20%—gold can come under pressure even while the broader economy is contracting. The Great Depression: An Extreme Case A depression differs from a normal recession in both its severity and duration and is often accompanied by deflation. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the official U.S. gold price remained fixed at US$20.67 per ounce under the gold standard. Gold's ability to preserve wealth therefore appeared not through price appreciation but through its purchasing power. As consumer prices fell by approximately 24%, gold maintained its nominal value, resulting in a significant increase in real purchasing power. In 1934, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the official gold price to US$35 per ounce, effectively increasing its value by approximately 69% overnight. This change resulted from government policy rather than market forces. At roughly the same time, the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, requiring private citizens to surrender much of their gold holdings. This historical episode illustrates that during severe depressions characterized by fixed exchange rates or a gold standard, government policy may exert greater influence over precious metals than normal market supply and demand. Similar developments occurred in Europe during the Napoleonic Wars, when Austria, following its defeat at the Battle of Austerlitz, devalued its currency by roughly 80% against gold. What This Means for Investors Several practical lessons emerge from history. First, short-term declines in gold—and particularly in silver—during the early stages of a crisis should not be interpreted as evidence that precious metals have failed. Rather, they reflect the market's temporary scramble for liquidity. Second, investors who maintain long-term holdings of physical gold and silver in the form of coins or bullion have historically benefited disproportionately from the subsequent recovery, with silver generally delivering the stronger rebound. Third, stagflationary environments—where weak economic growth coincides with persistent inflation, as experienced during the 1970s—have historically been particularly favorable for silver because both its monetary and industrial demand tend to strengthen simultaneously. For investors seeking to protect their wealth against the uncertainties of a recession—or even a full-scale depression—gold and silver should therefore be viewed not as short-term speculative trades, but as long-term components of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-during-a-recession-how-do-precious-metals-really-perform

On July 30, Chifeng Gold's stock price fell. By the close on July 30, Chifeng Gold had dropped 1.82% to 37.17 yuan/share. Chifeng Gold disclosed on July 30 a notice regarding the updated resource estimate for the SND project of the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine, stating: Its controlling subsidiary, LaneXang Minerals Limited Company, completed the first-phase resource exploration work for the SND gold-copper project by the end of June 2025, and SRK Consulting (China) Ltd. issued a "Mineral Resource Estimate Report for the Sepon SND Gold-Copper Project" compliant with the 2012 Edition of the "Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves" on August 7, 2025. Based on this, the company released its initial resource estimate. For details, please refer to the "Notice on Initial Resource Estimate for the SND Project of the Laos Sepon Gold-Copper Mine" (Notice No.: 2025-046) disclosed on August 8, 2025. In late June 2026, the exploration team of Vientiane Mining completed the second-phase drilling work for the SND gold-copper project. On July 30, 2026, Snowden Optiro issued an updated mineral resource estimate report compliant with the JORC Code. This report supersedes the initial mineral resource estimate report. Compared with the initial estimate, the gold equivalent metal content increased from 107 mt to 260 mt, up approximately 143%. The mineral resource estimate disclosed by Chifeng Gold shows: This mineral resource estimation work was completed by the exploration department of Vientiane Mining and reviewed by the independent international mining consultancy Snowden Optiro, using all drill holes completed by the end of May 2026 and all assay data received before July 10, 2026. The review scope covered data quality control and assurance, database update and verification, geological interpretation and modeling, mineralization domain delineation, ore bulk density zoning and interpolation, block model construction, geostatistical kriging neighborhood analysis, grade interpolation, model validation, resource classification, and technical report compilation. The review conclusion of Snowden Optiro's geologist (JORC Competent Person) on the SND mineral resource estimation work was: This resource estimation meets industry standards, has no significant data issues or errors, and is suitable for public disclosure. The effective date of this report is July 30, 2026. Based on the underground sublevel caving mining method, stope optimization was conducted to determine the potential mining area, constrained by a cut-off grade of 0.4 g/t gold equivalent. Indicated resources total approximately 170 million mt, with an average grade of 0.55 g/t gold and 0.26% copper, containing 96 mt of gold metal and 450,000 mt of copper metal. Inferred resources total approximately 190 million mt, with an average grade of 0.39 g/t gold and 0.19% copper, containing 76 mt of gold metal and 360,000 mt of copper metal. Total resources amount to approximately 360 million mt, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.47 g/t, containing 170 mt of gold metal and 810,000 mt of copper metal, and the gold equivalent metal content is approximately 260 mt. The resource estimate is summarized in the following table: The risk warning disclosed by Chifeng Gold indicates: The SND gold-copper project remains in the exploration stage. The resource estimate in this notice is based on certain assumptions and judgments, contains forward-looking statements, and does not constitute any substantive commitment or investment advice. Investors are advised to be aware of investment risks. In terms of performance: Chifeng Gold disclosed its semi-annual performance forecast on the evening of July 14, showing that, based on preliminary calculations by the financial department, net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm is expected to range from 1.70 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2026, an increase of 593.1 million yuan to 673.1 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.1069 billion yuan in the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items is expected to range from 1.71 billion yuan to 1.79 billion yuan, an increase of 598.09 million yuan to 678.09 million yuan, or up 54% to 61% YoY, compared with 1.11191 billion yuan in the same period last year. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change, Chifeng Gold stated: The significant YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring items for the first half of 2026 was mainly driven by the sharp rise in gold prices compared to the same period last year, with the average gold selling price up approximately 43% YoY, coupled with the company's continuous efforts to strengthen production organization and operational management, which boosted performance for the period. Regarding its main business, Chifeng Gold introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company belongs to the non-ferrous metal ore mining and beneficiation industry, with main products including precious metals such as gold and non-ferrous metals such as copper cathode. Its core business is gold mining, beneficiation, and sales, while also engaging in multi-metal mining, beneficiation, and comprehensive resource recycling. The company operates 6 gold mines and 1 multi-metal mine globally, with a business footprint covering China, Southeast Asia, and West Africa. Among them, domestic subsidiaries Jilong Mining, Wulong Mining, Huatai Mining, and Jintai Mining focus on gold mining and beneficiation; Hanfeng Mining focuses on multi-metal mining and beneficiation of zinc, lead, copper, and molybdenum; its controlling subsidiary, Laos Vientiane Mining, mainly engages in gold mining, beneficiation, and copper metal mining and smelting; its controlling subsidiary, Ghana-based Wasa, mainly engages in gold mining and beneficiation. Additionally, its controlling subsidiary Guangyuan Technology is deeply involved in comprehensive resource recycling, focusing on environmental protection businesses such as dismantling waste electrical and electronic equipment. Pacific Securities commented on May 7 on Chifeng Gold's evolution, showing: Multiple project technological transformations combined with routine maintenance led to a YoY decline in mined gold production. In 2026Q1, the company's mined gold production was 2.98 mt, down 10.7% YoY and 21.7% MoM, achieving 20% of the annual target. The production decline was mainly due to factors including multiple project technological transformations and routine maintenance. Specifically: Jilong Mining's hoist underwent a modification from single-rope to multi-rope, and Wulong Mining conducted renovation works on multiple blind shafts, both of which temporarily restricted ore extraction capacity; the beneficiation plant at the Laos Sepon gold-copper mine underwent annual large-scale routine maintenance, coupled with planned downtime maintenance for one of its high-temperature oxygen autoclaves, leading to a YoY decline in ore processing volume. Rising tax rates combined with declining production led to an increase in unit sales costs. The expense ratio remained relatively stable, while the asset-liability ratio continued to decrease. In 2026Q1, the company's ROE was 6.9%, up 2.5 pct YoY; the period expense ratio was 5.9%, down 0.6 pct YoY and up 0.1 pct MoM. As of 2026Q1, the company's asset-liability ratio was 29.4%, down 9.3 pct YoY and 4.5 pct MoM. Risk warning: wild swings in prices, cost side overshoot, and project progress delays.

Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

SMM July 30: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets mostly rose, with only SHFE copper, SHFE zinc, and LME copper falling. SHFE copper fell 0.26%, SHFE zinc fell 0.06%, LME copper fell 0.16%, LME nickel led the gains with a 1.15% rise, and the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.45%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel rose 0.59%, rebar led the declines with a 1.14% drop, hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil down 0.79% and iron ore down 0.74%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.04%, while coke fell 0.57%. Precious metals: Overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.66% and COMEX silver gained 0.64%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.9% and SHFE silver surged 1.84%. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from their record high in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since end-2023, though most still expect central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability to provide support. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, then suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up interest rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the geopolitical conflict erupted, spot gold has dropped about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:42 on July 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [China’s total social logistics value exceeded 180 trillion yuan in H1] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released logistics operation data for H1 this year yesterday (July 29). In H1, logistics demand continued to expand, marked by structural optimization and momentum shift. China’s total social logistics value reached 181.1 trillion yuan in H1, up 5.1% YoY, outpacing GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, demonstrating the logistics sector’s enhanced role in supporting and driving national economic growth. By quarter, growth was 6.2% in Q1 and 4.4% in Q2, maintaining a steady yet progressing trend. (CCTV News) [CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period] The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and 17 other departments, jointly released the National Climate Change Response 15th Five-Year Plan. According to the Plan, by 2030, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025, and CO2 emissions per unit of product in sectors covered by the national carbon emission trading market will drop by around 3% from 2025. A national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market that is credible, transparent, methodologically unified, broadly participatory and aligned with international standards will be established; a product carbon footprint management system will be largely in place; monitoring and control of non-CO2 greenhouse gases will be strengthened, with a reduction capacity of 30 million tonnes of CO2e; the climate adaptation work system will be refined; climate-adaptive society construction will achieve phased progress; and awareness and capabilities in tackling climate change will continue to improve. China’s influence, guidance, shaping power and moral appeal in global climate governance will significantly increase. (from Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.59% to 100.82. The US Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote, as three regional Fed bank presidents voted for a rate hike. Fed Chairman Warsh said the Fed’s reduced forward guidance on policy intentions has given the central bank more opportunity to listen to the market rather than unilaterally guide market expectations. Warsh noted that US Treasury yields had risen over the past few months, which he believed reflected solid economic fundamentals. He said: “Economic output has been robust. Capital spending and productivity have performed strongly. The labor market is stable and remains resilient. The bond market is sending many of the same messages.” (Jin10 Data) Fed Chairman Warsh said that since the June meeting, financial markets have already priced in much of the Fed’s tightening effects, so he disagreed with describing this decision to hold rates as a “pause.” Warsh said: “I would not characterize today’s decision as a pause in any sense. If you had to label it a pause, then the market’s performance says the exact opposite.” Since the Fed’s mid-June meeting, US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have each risen about 20bp. Warsh noted that during this period, financial markets did not “pause” adjustments; instead, they continuously repriced based on inflation data and economic growth: on the one hand, inflation data influenced expectations; on the other, strong growth pushed both nominal and real rates higher. He said: “The Fed today did not explicitly adjust the policy rate—that’s correct. But I think this is just the beginning of the policy story, not the end.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 63.2% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 0% (vs. 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% respectively before the Fed decision). By October, the probability of unchanged rates is 26.2%, with a cumulative 25bp hike at 55.6%, a cumulative 50bp hike at 18.2%, and a cumulative 75bp hike at 0% (vs. 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the decision). (Jin10 Data APP) After the Fed announced it held rates steady on Wednesday, Citi still expects the Fed to cut rates later this year. Economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark noted in a client report that Warsh’s press conference sent two dovish signals: first, he said the Fed would assess progress on curbing inflation using a wide range of data; second, he hinted that rising real yields had already tightened financial conditions to some extent. Citi continues to expect rising unemployment in coming months, which will lead the Fed to cut rates in October, December, and January next year. (Wall Street CN) Macro: Today will see the release of the US Fed interest rate decision (as of July 29), US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 25, US June core PCE price index YoY, US June personal spending MoM, US Q2 advance annualized real GDP QoQ, US Q2 advance real personal consumption QoQ, US Q2 advance annualized core PCE QoQ, US June core PCE MoM; Eurozone Q2 advance GDP YoY, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial sentiment, Eurozone July economic sentiment; France Q2 advance GDP YoY; Switzerland July KOF leading indicator; UK BoE rate decision (as of July 30); Germany Q2 advance non-adjusted GDP YoY, Germany July preliminary CPI MoM, and other data. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic surged, with WTI up 6.74% and Brent up 7.35%. With the resumption of major airstrikes in the Middle East, hopes that the US-Israel and Iran conflict would soon end were dashed. Meanwhile, industry data showing a decline in US crude inventories provided further support. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that the renewal of military strikes in the Middle East and renewed emphasis by Iranian officials on controlling shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz—where oil flows are sluggish—are again pushing up oil prices. US President Trump said hours before the Fed decision that the US would carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran, driving prices higher thereafter. DBS energy research head Suvro Sarkar said that with the volatile Middle East conflict, Brent crude will continue to swing wildly in the $80-$100 per barrel range in the near term. (Jin10 Data APP) Kpler head of commodity research Matt Smith said global fuel supplies are extremely tight, which is encouraging refiners to run at full throttle to capture unusually strong margins. After supply disruptions from the Ukraine and Iran wars, the fuel market has almost no buffer. “Super-sized refining margins continue to drive refiners to run as hard as they can, leading to significant draws in crude oil inventories.” (Wall Street CN) US refiners are converting crude into gasoline and diesel at a pace not seen since before the COVID-19 pandemic, but amid a historic fuel shortage crisis, even running at full tilt is unlikely to curb surging prices in the near term. According to EIA data, US refiners processed an average of 17 million barrels per day of crude oil last week, running flat out to meet global and domestic fuel demand. That was the highest weekly average since September 2019. In the Midwest, refineries even set an all-time high for weekly crude processing. (Wall Street CN)

SMM, July 29: On July 29, precious metals futures in and outside China showed mediocre performance, while A-share precious metals equities moved relatively independently, with futures and equities diverging. As the US Fed’s interest rate meeting approached, trading in precious metals futures turned cautious, with growing wait-and-see sentiment and neither bulls nor bears establishing a consistent direction, keeping prices moving sideways. The A-share precious metals sector trended relatively strong. On one hand, the sector had undergone earlier corrections, leaving room for valuation repair; on the other, the market traded on the medium- and long-term trend of gold prices and miners’ profit expectations, while positive H1 earnings previews from precious metals companies like Chifeng Gold also boosted market sentiment. Futures market: As of around 14:13 on July 29, COMEX gold fell 0.13% to $4,033.4/oz; SHFE gold main contract fell 0.59% to 883.12 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 0.97% to $58.085/oz; SHFE silver main contract fell 0.27% to 14,181 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 0.79% to 14,120 yuan/kg. Stock market: At the close on July 29, the precious metals sector rose 2.58%. Among individual stocks, Western Gold surged over 5%, and Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver&Tin, Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, Hunan Silver, and Shanjin International led the gains. News [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 1.7–1.78 billion yuan, up 54%–61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 347.48%–436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 200–240 million yuan, up 347.48%–436.98% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 80–116 million yuan, up 490.44%–756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 81.06%–122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 14, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 570–700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 272–402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit up 280.16%–333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings preview on the evening of July 13, expecting its net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2026 to be 500–570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; and its net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be 490–580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Expected H1 2026 Net Profit at 4.1 Billion-4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; deducted non-recurring profit is expected to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 29, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 14,038 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from the previous trading day. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted. Suppliers showed growing sentiment to hold back from selling, with some offers leaning toward premiums, while downstream buyers preferred negotiated deals at slight discounts, though transactions were basically maintained near parity today. Early session quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly centered around TD parity to a premium of 10 yuan/kg, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Affected by seasonal factors, silver ingot production pulled back slightly this month, and both domestic and overseas demand was sluggish. Overall, offers remained firm but transactions were limited. In the Shenzhen area, some national standard material was concentrated around a discount of 5 yuan/kg against the TD contract to parity; low-priced cargoes existed but did not cause significant disruption to spot trade. Today's premium and discount quote for the spot market against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg. Overall, the market focus was on the US Fed's July policy meeting and the digestion of subsequent policy signals. Spot market side, the month-end supply-demand dual weakness pattern persisted, with deals maintained near parity. Market Voices Outlook for precious metals from some institutions is as follows: A Reuters survey showed that analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023, following a sharp pullback from record highs in January, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. The median forecast for gold prices in 2026 from the survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks was $4,509 per ounce. That was down from $4,916 three months ago and marked the first forecast cut in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 was $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2, posting their worst quarter since 2013, as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointed out that gold prices rose on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices that eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields. The sharp drop in oil prices on Monday eased inflation concerns and the prospect of further monetary tightening. This move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Markets are now focusing on the US Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in Q3, despite the third quarter historically being a peak season for seasonal stockpiling. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which are curbing fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Fed turning less hawkish; many near-term risks could still cause gold prices to revisit lower levels, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on gold’s medium- to long-term outlook. She noted in a commentary that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with mainland China and Hong Kong gold stocks surging about 20% over three days, which is a positive signal. “We believe market confidence in gold is starting to improve and we continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. The UBS Global team remains optimistic on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts gold prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 by end-2027, respectively. She noted that key events to watch next are the US Fed’s policy tone at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East. (Jin10 Data APP) ANZ Research analysts said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks light after months of ETF outflows, suggesting that further downside may be limited. High interest rate environments usually drag on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from expectations of a tighter US Fed stance, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, and according to the bank's estimates, central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May, with a three-month average monthly purchase volume of 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will persist for years as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases of 50 mt for this year and 40 mt for next year. (Jin10 Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price movements indicate that the market is paying more attention to the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This makes gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a widespread deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data APP) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to rebuild its gold positions, which were reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to rebuild our gold positions; it is just a question of timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level during January-February, just as gold's multi-year bull run came to an abrupt end. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down," but "I don't think we are in that world right now." Samson added that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull run—will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep pullback in H1, gold prices are gradually showing signs of bottoming near $4,000, with only an event catalyst needed to fuel a rally. It suggests building positions near $4,000 in batches on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. The core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, offering a prominent margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, the valuation levels of gold mining companies have plunged from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, besides a valuation recovery, they are expected to also benefit from price elasticity brought by rising gold prices. Second, the earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an amplifier for gold prices—ore mining costs are rigid, and gold price increases directly translate into profit growth, with earnings elasticity far exceeding the gold price rise itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities notes: In the medium term, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness resilience exceeding expectations → the US Fed maintaining high interest rates for an extended period → repeated intensification of interest rate hike expectations within the year.” The gold price center is still dominated by US real Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall trend is likely to continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Currently, ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East are stuck in repeated games, with significant differences between the parties on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and passage fee rules for the Strait of Hormuz waterway. The recurring nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further consolidate inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed’s tight policy stance. At the same time, the synchronous rise of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has formed a dual headwind. Combined with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch in the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict situation and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s upward logic has not weakened; rather, it has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying great power competition are undermining the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets towards diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risk, geopolitical fragmentation risk, and the risk of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further validates the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) In the late cycle of the US economy, it faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a slowdown in growth. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to inflation stickiness, gold has strong long-term allocation value: the former favors a decline in real interest rates, while the latter strengthens safe-haven and credit risk resistance demand. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and the price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

SMM July 28 News: Metal Markets: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.26%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 0.76%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.11%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.25%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.13%, rebar fell 0.62%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.46%, and stainless steel fell 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.36%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.65%. As for base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.56%, LME aluminum fell 0.39%, LME zinc fell 0.36%, LME tin fell 1.57%, and LME nickel fell 0.26%. LME lead rose 0.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.68% and COMEX silver fell 1.96%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.59%. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain sluggish in Q3 despite the fact that historically Q3 is a seasonal stockpiling peak. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which curb fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed. Many risks remain in the short term that could cause gold prices to decline again, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. (Jinshi Data APP) Also, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.12%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.08%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.35% to 2,760 points. As of 11:41 on July 28, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed on oil prices, while rate-hike concerns eased, but the market remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision, with silver prices retreating after rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity... Macro Front Domestic: [Hangzhou: Plan to moderately deploy new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks ahead of demand] The “Hangzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Promotion Regulation (Draft)” is open for public comment. It proposes that the municipal people’s government should make overall plans for the construction of an artificial intelligence infrastructure system, appropriately lay out new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, new-generation communication networks, and trusted data spaces in advance, establish and improve market-oriented operational mechanisms, and ensure efficient utilization, safety, and controllability of all types of facilities; the municipal people’s government should coordinate the layout of intelligent computing power facilities and energy resource allocation. Build a new-type energy system for a megacity, strengthen synergy among power supply, power grid, load, and energy storage, promote urban power supply reliability to meet the usage standards of intelligent computing power facilities, and ensure safe, stable, and sufficient electricity supply for computing power; support the construction and operation of a city computing power resource dispatch service platform through market-based mechanisms, providing the public with convenient services such as computing power resource information release, supply-demand matching, and transaction settlement. Encourage various computing power resources to access the platform to achieve efficient allocation of computing power resources. Support computing power operation enterprises in participating in the construction of the national integrated computing power network. The PBOC conducted 305.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.46. US President Trump said on Monday, when discussing Fed issues, that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he must deal with committee issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and that the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10 Data APP) “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Fed Chairman Warsh had to convince the most rate-cut-enthusiastic president in modern history to appoint him to the Fed chairmanship. Now he faces a new challenge: persuading his 18 colleagues to abandon the professional mindset that he believes led them astray. The first test will come on Wednesday. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Frank Fret, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote in a report that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh’s repeated pledge to restore price stability and signal that policymakers no longer rely on telegraphing every policy move in advance. “The market may again have underestimated the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate increase this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while highlighting the Fed’s independence. ((Jin10 Data APP) HSBC economist Paul Mackel said in a report that unless the US Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the US dollar. Fed Chairman Warsh has acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He said if the meeting this week merely aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to surge significantly because the market is already positioned for rate hikes later this year. “However, we also recognize some are entertaining the idea of a surprise Fed hike, akin to what it did suddenly in February 1994.” He said that if the market welcomes it as a prudential move, this would boost the dollar.(Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup traders are betting the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term interest rate trading, the position they hold will profit if the Fed holds rates steady. Singal said, “We still stick to our expectation that rates will remain unchanged.” He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data indicate that the Fed does not need to raise rates at this time.(Jin10 Data APP) Lloyd Chan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, noted in a research report that the US dollar may be supported in the near term by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent tensions in the Middle East. He also said the Fed decision this week is likely to be a key catalyst for markets. Chan pointed out: “Though no policy change is expected, the market’s focus will be firmly locked on the Fed’s guidance – namely, whether policymakers still lean towards tightening.” The analyst added: “US tariff issues are returning to the spotlight as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff regime after the US Supreme Court overturned Donald Trump’s proposed global reciprocal tariff measures earlier this year.”(Jin10 Data APP) Regarding other currencies: RBA Governor Bullock: It is still uncertain whether the RBA’s rate hikes have been sufficient to bring CPI back to the target range. The RBA Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. The full effects of past rate hikes will take time to manifest. The RBA is committed to preventing cost pressures from becoming entrenched inflation. Core CPI is largely tracking in line with expectations but remains too high. Indicators suggest a mild pace of consumption growth in Q2. A further slowdown in demand growth may be necessary.(from Wall Street CN APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of the US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11, the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) YoY for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, among others. Additionally, watch out for: RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.46% and Brent down 1.37%. Geopolitically, the situation showed a phased easing. Trump stated on Monday that the US is in diplomatic negotiations with Iran to end the conflict, while warning that if talks fail, military engagement will resume. According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Oman are attempting to reach an agreement to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended their decline on this news. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

On July 27, Chifeng Gold shares rose. As of the close on July 27, the stock was up 4.52% at 38.14 yuan per share. In terms of news: Chifeng Gold disclosed its H1 2026 preliminary earnings after market close on July 14, showing that the company estimates net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm for H1 2026 to be between RMB 1,700 million and RMB 1,780 million. Compared with RMB 1,106.9 million in the same period last year, this represents an increase of RMB 593.1 million to RMB 673.1 million, up 54% to 61% YoY. It estimates net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for H1 2026 to be between RMB 1,710 million and RMB 1,790 million, compared with RMB 1,111.91 million in the year-ago period, an increase of RMB 598.09 million to RMB 678.09 million, up 54% to 61% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change in the period, Chifeng Gold said the sharp YoY growth in both net profit metrics was primarily driven by a significant rise in gold prices relative to the same period last year, with the average gold selling price up about 43% YoY, alongside the company's continuous strengthening of production organization and operational management, which boosted results. Regarding its main business, Chifeng Gold described in its 2025 annual report: The company belongs to the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry, with principal products including precious metals such as gold and nonferrous metals like copper cathode. Its core business is gold mining, mineral processing and sales, while also engaging in polymetallic mining and comprehensive resource recovery. The company operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine globally, with a footprint covering China, Southeast Asia and West Africa. Among them, domestic subsidiaries Jilong Mining, Wulong Mining, Huatai Mining and Jintai Mining focus on gold mining and beneficiation; Hanfeng Mining focuses on zinc, lead, copper and molybdenum polymetallic mining; the controlled subsidiary Laos Vientiane Mining is engaged in gold mining and copper mining and smelting; and the controlled subsidiary Ghana Wassa focuses on gold mining. In addition, the controlled subsidiary Guangyuan Technology specializes in comprehensive resource recovery, focusing on the dismantling of waste electrical and electronic products and other environmental protection business. A review of Gold 99's price trend in H1 2026 shows: The average price of Gold 99 on June 30 this year was 866.2 yuan/g, down 110.79 yuan/g from 976.99 yuan/g on December 31, 2025, a decline of 11.34% in H1 2026. The daily average price of Gold 99 in H1 2026 was 1,037.71 yuan/g, up 315.43 yuan/g from 722.28 yuan/g in H1 2025, an increase of 43.67%. Gold price movements have been extremely sharp since the start of 2026. On January 29, COMEX gold hit an all-time high of $5,626.8 per ounce, but subsequently, pressured by factors such as heightened expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, it fell to an intra-year low of $3,955.4 per ounce on June 30. Recently, easing US-Iran tensions have alleviated market concerns about inflation and interest rates staying high for longer, leading to a gold rebound. As of 19:12 on July 27, COMEX gold had risen 0.74% to $4,101.4 per ounce, with a year-to-date loss of 5.53%. Regarding the outlook for precious metals, views from some institutions are as follows: Teves Joni, gold strategist at UBS, remains positive on gold’s medium and long-term outlook. In her commentary, she noted that gold prices have risen since the start of this week, with gold stocks in Mainland China and Hong Kong gaining around 20% cumulatively over three days, a positive signal. "We think sentiment in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect gold prices to rebound from current levels before year-end," she said. The UBS global team stays upbeat about gold's medium-term picture and forecasts that gold will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. Key events to watch ahead, she added, are the policy tone from the US Fed at the late-July FOMC meeting and further developments in the Middle East situation. (Jinshi Data App) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank buying are supporting the gold market. They added that while gold faces near-term headwinds from expectations of further US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, investment positioning in gold looks thin after months of ETF outflows, suggesting limited room for further declines. The high interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitoong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong, with the bank estimating that central banks purchased 81 mt in May, and the three-month average stood at 67 mt, well above the average of 17 mt before 2022. Goldman analysts noted, "We believe the trend of central banks adding gold will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts monthly average purchases of 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jinshi Data APP) Kim Soojin, analyst at MUFG, said, "Recent price action suggests the market is placing more weight on the likelihood of U.S. rates staying higher for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to stress unless geopolitical risks translate into a broader deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jinshi Data APP) Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which was trimmed earlier this year, at the right opportunity, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain robust. Samson Ian, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, "We plan to add back to gold, it’s just a matter of timing." He reduced gold allocation to neutral between January and February this year, when the multi-year bull run in gold ended. Samson expects gold to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027, and only a scenario in which "governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks genuinely commit to bringing inflation back down" would undermine the case for a renewed bull market. "I don’t think we’re in that world right now," he added. Samson also said that sustained central bank gold buying, a key driver of the previous gold bull market, will continue to support prices. Last Thursday, Bank of America technical strategists warned that gold’s pullback this year may have room to go much further, potentially resembling the devastating bear markets that followed the massive gold rallies in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold falls to the $3,450-$3,250 range. In a technical research note, BofA analysts pointed out that gold has gathered a series of bearish signals, with rising risks of a sustained drop: a death cross pattern, elevated net long open interest, a warning top candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent peak―a level consistent with the gold tops in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold target to $4,800 per ounce, and while it remains bullish on gold in the long term, it is not adding to positions for now. Its gold allocation stands at a neutral roughly 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year, according to Gupta Paras, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, in an interview. Gupta said the previous overweight position "posed the biggest risk to our portfolio." UBP wants to see Middle East ceasefire agreements maintained, along with greater clarity on inflation and interest rate trends, before increasing its position. Gupta said that for investors with no gold exposure, a dip below $4,000 per ounce would be a highly attractive entry point. (Zhitoong Finance)

Macro signals were mixed this week. Middle East tensions and inflation-rate hike fears pressured metals, while geopolitical safe-haven demand and trade frictions lent support. High dollar and yields kept flows cautious, with precious metals consolidating and no clear trend emerging.

Published Wed, Jul 22 20264:41 PM EDT John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the U.S. housing market before turning bullish on gold, said he believes the precious metal is only in the early stages of a long-term rally. “I do think we’re in the beginnings or the early stages of a long-term bull market for gold,” Paulson said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” Wednesday. “As people lose faith in paper currencies, gold as an alternative will continue to grow.” Paulson, whose wager against subprime mortgages became one of the most profitable trades in Wall Street history, shifted his focus to gold in 2009, arguing that the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus following the financial crisis would ultimately weaken the U.S. dollar. Since then, gold prices have roughly quadrupled, topping the $5,000 threshold before pulling back. The billionaire investor said demand for bullion continues to broaden, led by central banks that have been adding to their reserves alongside growing private-sector interest. “Gold is becoming the most apt reserve currency in the world, replacing fiat currencies,” Paulson said. “The demand from central banks, for instance, has continued to grow, as has the private sector.” Paulson also argued that investors stand to benefit more from owning gold miners than bullion itself, particularly companies with large undeveloped reserves. “I think the greatest way to invest is to invest in early-stage gold stocks,” he said. Paulson made the comments as NovaGold Resources announced it would acquire Paulson Advisers’ 40% stake in the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. Paulson, who serves as co-chairman of NovaGold, said the company offers investors leveraged exposure to rising gold prices because of its sizable resource base. “NovaGold has 40 million ounces of gold indicated and measured resources and reserves at the market [capitalization] of $4.2 billion,” Paulson said. “I think the best way to play gold is through stocks like NovaGold, if not NovaGold itself.” Source： https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/john-paulson-says-we-are-in-early-stages-of-a-long-term-bull-market-for-gold.html