Precious metals staged their first coordinated rally in nearly two weeks on Tuesday as the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to lift market sentiment and weaken the dollar.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Held Up Well, With Cost Support and a Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continuing] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain held up well, with prices of all products generally raised. The raw material dolomite market remained stable, with ample supply and steady demand. Magnesium ingot prices consolidated at highs. At the beginning of the week, supported by rising energy costs such as ferrosilicon and coke and tight spot availability, prices jumped by 300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, downstream fear of high prices emerged, transactions failed to keep pace, and prices consolidated at highs. In foreign trade, the center of magnesium ingot FOB quotes moved up to $2,440-2,470/mt. Wait-and-see sentiment outside China remained strong, but influenced by bullish expectations in China, forward orders were gradually locked in. Magnesium powder prices remained firm, with strong cost support. Export data increased YoY, while domestic trade was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. The benchmark price of magnesium alloy held up well, but the release of new capacity led to increased supply, processing fees stayed in the doldrums, and the market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overall, cost support remained the core driver behind magnesium prices fluctuating at highs, while downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and the market may continue this tug-of-war in the short term.

Platinum prices fluctuated downward today, with the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing the morning session at 495.45 yuan/g, down 3.20%. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 6-8 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a discount of 3-5 yuan/g against the SGE spot selling price 1. Spot discounts were basically flat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, SMM learned that suppliers reported weaker market consumption and limited transactions, while the price spread between intended prices and quoted prices remained relatively wide. Quotes at discounts of around 6 yuan/g on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange saw basically no transactions, and some traders purchased small volumes while seeking spot-futures price spread opportunities. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises reported fewer orders and limited purchases, with an overall wait-and-see stance prevailing. Overall transactions in the spot market were relatively subdued.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

This week, prices in the second-life battery market were generally stable, while the market's structural divergence remained evident. Cost side, trends in various raw materials diverged, with overall costs rising slightly. Lithium carbonate prices increased, pushing up battery cell recycling and processing costs; nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, easing one-sided cost pressure, and costs edged up mildly over the week. Supply side, supply of popular energy storage battery cell models was tight, with limited spot availability; conventional models were sufficiently available, and no broad-based shortage emerged in the market. Demand side, the gap between energy storage and the EV market remained wide. Demand in the EV sector stayed sluggish, with low purchasing enthusiasm and insufficient support for prices; energy storage demand remained the mainstay of the market, with stable rigid demand. However, prices were currently at high levels, downstream purchasing became more rational, willingness to purchase at high prices declined, and further price increases were currently facing resistance.

SMM Nickel News, March 26: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines issued a service notice announcing the immediate resumption of new bookings for services from the Far East to the following Middle East countries (dry containers): the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The resumption of shipments did not mean that COSCO SHIPPING container vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (2) In the early hours of March 25, Tehran time, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement on social media that non-hostile vessels could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with relevant Iranian authorities, provided that the countries to which they belong or with which they are associated neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran, and fully comply with the announced safety and security regulations. Spot Market: On March 26, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 5,400 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel was at -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened sharply higher in last night's session and then fluctuated downward, closing the morning session today at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News, March 26: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,909.5/mt. After the opening, prices fell rapidly, hitting a low of $1,899/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of $1,920/mt. After repeated tug-of-war at high levels, it pulled back. Near the close, LME lead briefly consolidated at $1,908/mt and finally closed at $1,911.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $13/mt, or 0.68%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices fluctuated higher, touching a high of 16,570 yuan/mt. Thereafter, lead prices plunged rapidly after 22:30, gradually falling below the key support level of 16,505 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices fluctuated rangebound in the 16,490-16,505 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 16,480 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,490 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 5 yuan/mt, or 0.03%. Supply side: Ex-works quotes from primary lead smelters remained stable, with mainstream producing areas quoting premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price; secondary lead smelters held prices firm on shipments, and spot cargo in circulation tightened. Demand side: Downstream procurement sentiment diverged, with wait-and-see sentiment toward new-month long-term contracts coexisting with purchase as needed, while warrant cargoes were relatively more favored in transactions. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with downside supported by firm spot prices and limited room for decline; whether prices can break upward will require close tracking of downstream procurement and restocking pace.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM News, March 26: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt during the day. Prices edged down slightly in early trading, then fluctuated rangebound within the 16,425-16,460 yuan/mt range, with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. As downstream battery enterprises showed low willingness to restock and consumption remained weak, SHFE lead fell further in the afternoon session, hitting a low of 16,385 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly near the close to end at 16,460 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.21%. On the supply side, quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site held steady, while secondary lead producers held prices firm, leading to tight circulating cargoes. On the demand side, downstream players remained on the sidelines, with long-term contract and purchasing as needed proceeding in parallel. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a sideways movement in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.