July 6, 2026 Despite current headwinds from high U.S. yields and a strong dollar, HSBC believes the gold price still has further upside potential through the end of 2026. While the precious metal is currently trading within a narrow range in the short term—as higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of this non-interest-bearing asset—analysts remain extremely bullish on the long-term investment case. Short-Term Pressure: Raising Liquidity Rather Than a Safe Haven During the recent geopolitical crises in the Middle East and amid rising oil prices, gold behaved less like a traditional safe haven and, at times, moved in tandem with the stock market. In an environment marked by inflation concerns and falling stock markets, investors primarily used the precious metal as a highly liquid hedge. To quickly generate cash during tense market phases or to meet impending margin calls on other investments, gold positions were aggressively sold off. This development was accompanied by previously massively overextended positioning in the futures market. Driven in part by inexperienced speculators, a noticeable correction followed the rapid surge to around $5,400 per ounce at the end of January, as these often leveraged positions had to be hastily unwound. Also noteworthy for commodity investors is the profoundly altered market dynamic: The historical correlation between gold and oil, which was still strongly positive in the 1970s and 1980s, has since decoupled dramatically. Today, this correlation has weakened to a value of around 0.15 or even into negative territory, posing entirely new challenges for diversification in modern portfolios. Structural demand from Asia and ETF inflows provide support The gold price owes its solid foundation to the ongoing need for diversification among institutional investors. Global de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties, along with steady ETF inflows, are driving demand, particularly in Asia. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, this is reflected in a significant price premium of around 20 U.S. dollars. The focus here is less on jewelry or coins and more on large-format bars for the institutional sector. Regulatory changes in China and India now allow large local insurers and asset managers to strategically build up gold positions. This robust demand is complemented by steady purchases by central banks, as underscored by the People’s Bank of China ’s recent acquisitions of an additional 8.1 metric tons. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-for-2026-why-the-precious-metal-holds-huge-potential-despite-headwinds

June 24, 2026 The price of gold remains under short-term pressure following recent setbacks, but the broader bull market is far from over. For Jerry Prior, Chief Operating Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager at the KraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (NYSE: KMLM), the current decline is primarily a healthy readjustment following overheated positioning. The true long-term drivers—above all, the global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency—remain absolutely intact. Healthy Correction: Why the Fed Shock Is Cleaning Up the Market In recent weeks, the precious metal has come under noticeable selling pressure due to several concurrent factors. The Federal Reserve’s more restrictive stance under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the associated expectations of higher interest rates massively increased the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing gold. At the same time, immediate safe-haven demand eased due to a de-escalation in the Middle East, prompting speculative investors and systematic trend-following funds to engage in massive selling. However, it is precisely this sharp reduction in positions that has already removed the bulk of the downside risk from the market. According to the expert, the risk of panic selling driven by retail inflows has been virtually eliminated following this rigorous market correction. Even if prices were to slip temporarily below the psychologically important threshold of $4,000 per ounce, the focus would instead shift to the enormous potential in the period that follows. As soon as global oil markets stabilize again and new revenues flow into commodity-exporting countries, a massive return of central banks seeking to further build up their gold reserves is to be expected. The Catalyst: De-dollarization Fuels the Next Bull Run Structural de-dollarization remains the strongest argument for strategic gold positions. The increasing use of the U.S. dollar as a geopolitical lever—the so-called “weaponization of the dollar”—is forcing more and more countries to seek alternative stores of value beyond U.S. Treasury bonds. This trend is considered irreversible. Additional revenues from exporting nations are likely to be channeled directly into the gold market in the future, rather than being used to finance the U.S. deficit. This development is accompanied by a macroeconomic environment characterized by structurally higher inflation. The end of cheap globalization benefits from China, the resource-intensive restructuring of global supply chains, and the costly relocation of production facilities virtually guarantee that inflation will not permanently return to the extremely low pre-pandemic level. The recent correction is therefore not a harbinger of a long bear market, but merely a temporary pullback within a secular uptrend. For long-term commodity investors, this market movement is actually good news. Viewed in this light, the current pullback to historically significant support levels flushes speculative market participants out of the system and offers a healthy entry opportunity. Since the fundamental megatrends—from global de-dollarization to massive central bank purchases—remain absolutely intact, as many experts emphasize, the foundation for the next upward cycle could be taking shape here, initially heading toward the $4,500 mark. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-prices-remain-under-pressure-but-this-is-exactly-where-a-new-opportunity-could-lie

June 17, 2026 Despite a sharp 26 percent drop in prices during the Iran conflict, Barclays believes the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact. The British bank attributes the recent slump to temporary market forces, while structural price drivers such as inflation and central bank purchases persist. Temporary Factors Overshadow Safe-Haven Role Between January and June, gold lost massive value—an unusual pattern, as geopolitical crises typically boost demand for safe havens. According to Barclays’ Cross-Asset Research Team, however, this role was overshadowed by massive macroeconomic headwinds. A strong U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates weighed heavily on the precious metal, as the market quickly priced out the Federal Reserve’s previously anticipated interest rate cuts. At the same time, the rally in the stock markets—fueled by a roughly 10 percent rise in the S&P 500—tied up considerable risk capital. According to Barclays, however, these factors explain only part of the price decline. The greatest downward momentum stemmed from the massive unwinding of leveraged gold positions, which was further accelerated by simultaneous sales by the Russian and Turkish central banks . Investors were driven by higher yields, causing short-term capital flows to dictate prices. Structural Drivers Justify Premium Analysts, however, view these headwinds as temporary. With the foreseeable easing of tensions in the Middle East, fundamental price drivers are likely to regain the upper hand. These include persistent inflationary pressure, monetary policy uncertainties, and the continued diversification of government currency reserves. Barclays quantifies this effect clearly: historically, every additional percentage point of inflation increases the price of gold by about five percent. The bank currently estimates the fair value of the precious metal at $4,150 per ounce and anticipates a reversal in the near future. This is contingent on the U.S. dollar resuming its long-term downward trend and central banks returning to sustained gold purchases. Forecast Confirmed: Winners in the Mining Sector Accordingly, Barclays is sticking to its ambitious price targets: The bank expects the gold price to reach $4,791 per ounce by 2026, rising to $4,900 by the end of 2027. However, the bank does not rule out short-term price fluctuations until the trend ultimately reverses. According to analysts’ estimates, established gold producers such as Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle are likely to benefit most from this bullish scenario. The key question for the sector now is whether the expected recovery in the gold price will quickly translate into higher profit margins. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-analysts-expect-a-rebound-to-nearly-usd4-800

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 11:32 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s 26% decline during the Iran conflict came from a boost to the dollar, yields and equities which overwhelmed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal, but persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and central bank demand remain intact, and gold prices will still reach nearly $4,800 in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, according to Barclays. In a research note published Monday, the UK banking giant’s cross-asset research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis said gold’s three-month selloff was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar, white-hot equity markets absorbing all the available risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions, with Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales also contributing to the weakness. The analysts said gold’s slide from its January peak to its June trough reflected a normalization of real interest rates, markets pricing out Fed rate cuts this year, and the short-term appeal of rising stocks detracting from gold’s investment appeal. The Barclays team calculated that the rise in the dollar index and the 10% S&P 500 rally accounted for 10% of the gold price decline, with the remainder coming from position unwinding in the metals markets. The analysts said these factors are temporary, however, and that gold’s structural drivers — persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and continued reserve diversification — are still intact, and they will reassert themselves as the geopolitical stress related to the Hormuz crisis dissipates. They characterized these drivers as “slow-moving variables whose influence accumulates over time,” which is why they were ill-suited to support gold prices during the short-term shock of the Iranian crisis. Barclays calculated that every percentage-point increase in inflation gives gold a 5% uplift, and they believe the inflationary impulse of the Iran energy shock will be supportive. The bank estimates gold’s fair value price currently sits at $4,150 per ounce, and they expect a rebound now that the Iran conflict appears to be winding down. The Barclays team said they now anticipate a reassertion of the dollar’s downward trend, a return to consistent central bank buying and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices. Barclays said they are maintaining their 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts at $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce, but warned that there may still be some short-term mark-to-market downside. The analysts also recommended exposure to gold mining stocks, including Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. “Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now,” they said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/barclays-sees-gold-hitting-4791-2026-4900-2027-iran-correction-fades

Published: May 20, 2026 - 1:58 AM Updated: May 20, 2026 - 2:40 AM (Kitco News) – Central bank gold purchases have come in stronger than previous estimates so far in 2026, and updated projections have sovereign demand rising further in the second half of the year, according to commodity strategists at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs analysts announced on Friday that they have revised their central bank gold demand model to account for gaps in official trade data. Back in March, the investment bank raised its nowcast of central bank purchases to about 50 tonnes per month on a 12-month moving average basis, up from 29 tonnes under its earlier methodology. The bank now expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026, supported by continued diversification demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Goldman analysts said their previous estimates had underestimated sovereign demand since August 2025, when UK trade data began failing to fully capture gold outflows from London vaults, resulting in unrecorded sovereign buying. "Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident," Goldman said, citing its own central bank survey along with recent geopolitical developments as factors likely to support increased demand from both governments and private investors over time. Goldman Sachs reiterated its $5,400 per ounce gold price target for year-end 2026, but warned that bullion prices could still face near-term pressure if investors are compelled to sell liquid assets to raise cash during market stress. Back in late January, as gold prices were setting fresh all-time highs above $5,000 per ounce, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 price target to $5,400 an ounce . At the time, Goldman analysts led by Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a note that the upgraded forecast is based on their belief that private investors who bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks will hold these positions through the end of the year. The analysts said that, unlike previous hedges which were tied to specific events – such as the November 2024 US election – gold positions taken to protect against risks such as fiscal sustainability are unlikely to be fully resolved this year and are therefore “stickier.” Emerging market central banks are “likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold,” the analysts said. The debasement trade is also prompting physical bullion purchases by high-net-worth families and investor call-option buying amid mounting concerns over the long-term monetary and fiscal policy trajectories in major economies, they noted. Risks to the updated forecast are “significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” the analysts wrote. “That said, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global fiscal/monetary policy would pose downside risk if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges.” The diversification trend was already very much on Goldman’s radar heading into this year. In their 2026 Commodities Outlook published in late December , the investment bank wrote that gold is the best bet in the entire commodities complex, adding that if private investors join central banks in their diversification, the price could well exceed their base case – though they also advocated diversification across the commodities complex as well. “Even as gold remains our single favorite long commodity, we see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations,” they wrote. “The very high geographic concentration of commodity supply and the increasing geopolitical, trade, and AI competition has led to a more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage. This raises the risk of supply disruptions, which underscores the insurance value of commodities.” “Equity-bond portfolios are not well-diversified when commodity supply losses drive both weaker growth and higher inflation as well as strong commodity returns,” the analysts warned. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-19/central-banks-are-buying-more-gold-expected-and-purchases-will-increase

Gold needs falling rate expectations for a substantial rally. UBS holds firm on long-term gold forecast of $6,200 per ounce by 2026. Yellow metal hedges against monetary risks like currency devaluation.